Last updated October 2, 2025

ICLE Affiliate Review: October 2025

Welcome to a new academic year! This fall, ICLE is excited to roll out a number of new programs open to our affiliates, featured in this quarter's ICLE Affiliate Review. In September, we launched We Are What We Read on Truth on the Market, offering affiliates the opportunity to review classic and recent law & economics scholarship. We've also put out a call for papers on topics related to distributive efficiency, in addition to other ongoing research and funding opportunities. Read on for more information about these initiatives and updates from ICLE and our valued affiliate network!

In Memoriam

ICLE mourns the loss of two of our affiliates, Robert D. Cooter and Stephen E. Margolis. Both were scholars whose insights continue to inspire and guide generations of thinkers in law & economics and beyond.

Robert D. Cooter | 1945-2025

Robert Cooter - UC Berkeley Law

Stephen E. Margolis | 1950-2025

Opportunities

We Are What We Read: Law & Economics Scholarship Past and Present

We Are What We Read has launched on Truth on the Market!

In conjunction with our Law & Economics Fellows Program, this series reviews both foundational and contemporary works in law & economics. All ICLE Affiliates are invited to contribute reviews of classic or contemporary law & economics papers, highlighting their substantive and methodological contributions. Reviews are typically 900-1400 words, and contributors receive modest honoraria upon publication.

If you are interested in submitting a review or have any questions, please contact L&E Program Manager, Joshua Benson, at [email protected].

Call for Papers: Distributive Efficiency

Coming out of a discussion at this past summer’s Affiliates Retreat, we are working with several of our affiliates to organize a symposium on the importance of distributive efficiency in law & economics.

We are currently seeking authors interested in writing papers that explore issues relating to distributive efficiency, including both critical explorations and defenses of law & economics’ traditional focus on allocative efficiency to the exclusion of distributive efficiency. We are looking for both subject-specific papers (e.g., “distributive efficiency in corporate governance”) as well as pieces that take more general perspectives. We have a particular interest in econometric or otherwise empirical papers, but welcome interest from any perspective or methodology

If you are interested in proposing a paper, please contact [email protected].

Law & Economics Fellows Meeting 10/17

Affiliates are invited to our monthly L&E Fellows sessions, where we will discuss entries in our We Are What We Read series on Truth on the Market, as well as foundational and recent works in law & economics. The October session will take place Friday, October 17, from 1:00-2:30 PM ET on Zoom.

If you’d like to join this session, please RSVP here.

We hope you will be able to join us for this and future sessions of our L&E Fellows Program!

L&E Scholarship Awards

This program supports promising students in law & economics and ICLE affiliates who mentor them. If you have a promising student whose work you would like to acknowledge, please contact [email protected] to nominate them for an L&E Scholarship Award.

Affiliate Collaboration Awards

We value collaboration among our affiliates that strengthens our network. First-time collaborations between affiliates are eligible for financial awards of up to $2,500 per author upon publication. We may also offer the same award for interdisciplinary collaborations where one author is an ICLE affiliate.

For more information, contact [email protected].

Open Research Funding Call

We continue to offer funding for projects relating to a range of topics, including but not limited to:

  • Platforms, conglomerates, and ecosystems
  • Standard Essential Patents (SEPs)
  • Civil liability for corporate officers
  • Law & economics of administrative law

Funding for these projects typically starts at $10,000. You may submit a research grant proposal at this form.

Contact [email protected] for more information.

Affiliate Highlights: News & Activities

Speakers Series Grant Recipients

Congratulations to the recipients of ICLE Speakers Series Grants for the 2025-2026 academic year!

Michael Sykuta & Thom Lambert
University of Missouri

Murat C. Mungan
Texas A&M School of Law

Henry A. Thompson
University of Mississippi

Thibault Schrepel
Vrije Universiteit

Jane Bambauer
University of Florida Levin College of Law

New Affiliates at ICLE

ICLE recently welcomed five new Academic Affiliates!

Jane Bambauer
University of Florida Levin College of Law

David Gindis
University of Warwick School of Law

Dae-Sik Hong
Sogang University Law School

Sayako Takizawa
University of Tokyo

Toshiaki Takigawa
Kansai University

Affiliate News & Moves

  • Lexology Index: Competition 2025 named Kenneth Elzinga on its list, recognizing him as a Global Elite Thought Leader.
  • The University of Richmond School of Law named Kristen Osenga the Julie & John Nowak Faculty Research Scholar.
  • The University of Virginia appointed Paul Mahoney interim president.
  • Adam Mossoff and Kristen Osenga spoke at the Federalist Society webinar, The Case for RESTORE? Injunctions, Patents, and the Future of Innovation.
  • Todd Zywicki was featured at the Federalist Society’s Litigation Update: FTC v. Meta webinar.
  • Adam Mossoff hosted the Hudson Institute’s Securing America’s Technological Edge: A Conversation with USPTO Acting Director Coke Morgan Stewart.
  • Erin O’Hara O’Connor offered welcome remarks and Yunsieg Kim presented as a featured speaker at the 2025 FSU Election Law Conference.

Highlighted Publications

Should We Fear Personalized Pricing

Abstract

The practice of personalized pricing involves using information about a consumer to more accurately estimate an individual’s willingness-to-pay for a product to calibrate pricing to that individual. If the practice grows, what does this imply for consumer welfare—particularly for digital markets where there is an abundance of user data? While some consumers may end up enjoying lower prices and having greater access to markets, other consumers will likely end up paying higher prices relative to the counterfactual, that is, a world without personalized pricing but likely some other forms of price discrimination. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that all consumers are made worse off relative to the counterfactual. Additionally, there are reasons that mitigate the concern that the practice of personalize pricing will grow. First, there could be competitive pressure to not engage in the practice—as firms that explicitly avoid personalized pricing will have a competitive advantage in the eyes of consumers. Relatedly, firms that do engage in personalized pricing will likely be stigmatized in the market, which creates a strong disincentive to widely adopt the practice.

Read the full piece here.

Scholarship (Affiliate)

Reining in Smartphone Ecosystems and App Stores: A Critique of the Japanese Smartphone Act in Comparison to EU and U.S. Regulatory Approaches

Abstract

In June 2024, Japan enacted the Act on Promotion of Competition for Specified Smartphone Software, a new legislative measure aimed at regulating smartphone ecosystems. This article examines and compares the Act, commonly known as the “Japanese Smartphone Act,” to the European Union (EU) and U.S. regulatory approaches. The examination begins with the neutrality principle, which serves as the foundation of the Act, concluding that this principle should be refrained from since it prevents platform operators from governing their platforms. Next, the examination addresses regulations against unfair and exploitative conduct toward app providers, concluding that such conduct should be subject to regulation under competition law, adhering to the rule of reason principle. Finally, the examination outlines measures to facilitate app store openness, cautioning against micromanaging smartphone design details by regulators. It recommends that instead of ex ante rules, competition law should govern smartphone ecosystems.

Read the full piece here.

Scholarship (Affiliate)

Bringing Portable Benefits to Georgia’s Independent Workforce: Overview

In today’s economy, over one million Georgia residents are freelancers, contractors, or self-employed workers. They include rideshare and delivery drivers, truckers, freelance creatives, real estate agents, hairstylists, childcare providers, professional consultants, and countless other occupations. US Census Bureau data show that this is a growing workforce, generating more than $55 billion annually in revenue or sales for the state (figure 1).

Read the full piece here.

Scholarship (Affiliate)

Patents in Paradise: The Evolution of Patent Law in the Cayman Islands

Abstract

This study examines the Cayman Islands’ unique position in the global intellectual property (IP) landscape, contrasting its success as an exporter of financial and legal services with the inherently domestic nature of patent protection. We hypothesize that due to this limitation, the Cayman Islands functions as a strategic, cost-effective jurisdiction for augmenting patent protection initially obtained elsewhere. Our research provides the first comprehensive analysis of Caymanian patents, and through a quantitative examination of patent family data-including filing trends, economic valuation, geographic distribution, and assignee profiles-we find strong empirical evidence to support this thesis. Our findings reveal a disproportionate presence of high-value patent families in the Cayman Islands, particularly within the pharmaceutical and telecommunications sectors. This concentration aligns with the jurisdiction’s specific economic characteristics, such as its medical tourism industry and high per capita income, as well as the established international strategies of major pharmaceutical companies. The analysis demonstrates that patent registration in the Cayman Islands is a distinct, specialized function that complements its broader role in global finance and law, offering tailored, low-cost domestic IP rights within a globally oriented portfolio. This study provides a benchmark for how other small jurisdictions can successfully navigate and compete in the global legal market through a specialized approach to intellectual property.

Read the full piece at SSRN.

Scholarship (Affiliate)

Serial Acquisitions in Tech

Abstract

We examine serial acquisitions in the technology sector from 2010 to 2023. Defining serial acquisitions based on a granular S&P industry taxonomy, we find that they account for 24–37% of majority-control tech M&A, with over half completed by public firms. Follow-on targets in a series are generally larger and older than the initial acquisition, and among public acquirers, starting a series is associated with higher market value and greater innovation value, but not with significant changes in market competitiveness. Among deals with valid transaction values, over half of serial deals exceed the reporting threshold of the U.S. Hart–Scott–Rodino (HSR) Act. However, in below-threshold acquisitions, acquirers primarily target their core business category. Accounting for the cumulative value of a series would, in most cases, keep the timing of HSR review unchanged or modestly accelerate it, but when it does accelerate it, review could occur several deals or years earlier, potentially yielding important benefits in markets with long acquisition sequences. Finally, while Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook/Meta, Apple and Microsoft (GAFAM) stand out from the rest of the sample for more frequent serial acquisitions, some other large acquirers display similar patterns.

Read the full piece at SSRN.

Scholarship (Affiliate)

Sanctions and Sanctions-Resistant Money

Abstract

In recent years, dollar-based sanctions have become an important tool of U.S. foreign policy. The introduction of bitcoin poses challenges to this sanctions regime. Bitcoin settles transactions through a decentralized, global, permissionless, and competitive market. These characteristics create a degree of censorship resistance. As bitcoin adoption increases, policymakers intent on maintaining the status quo might try to target the bitcoin network for censorship as well. We examine two recent proposals aimed at censoring transactions involving sanctioned entities and assesses their likelihood of success. We argue that both proposals are unlikely to achieve their intended outcomes. Instead, a more pragmatic approach to bitcoin is likely to be more effective for those focused on sanctions compliance and enforcement.

Read the full piece at SSRN.

Scholarship (Affiliate)

Henry Manne’s Struggle To Institutionalize Law & Economics

The field known as “law and economics” occupies a prominent place in legal and economic analysis. To understand how this came to be, one must look beyond the ideas and examine the institutions and academic ventures that supported the development, dissemination, and diffusion of those ideas. The most important figure in this respect was Henry Manne, a Vanderbilt economics graduate with law degrees from Chicago and Yale. Manne was honored as one of the field’s “four founders” by the American Law and Economics Association at its inaugural meeting in 1991.

Read the full piece here.

Popular Media (Affiliate)

The Medieval Origins of Spousal Consent

Abstract

This paper examines the medieval origins of spousal consent, the norm requiring that marriages be contracted willingly and free from pressure from third parties. We argue that this norm resulted from the Catholic Church’s consolidation of legal authority over marriage in the 11th-12th centuries. Committed doctrinally to the belief that marriages could not be dissolved and that remarriage was therefore impermissible (i.e., marriage indissolubility), the Church was compelled to enforce high consent requirements to the formation of new unions. Using a simple theoretical model, we show that the Church’s optimal level of spousal consent is higher when remarriage is not allowed. Higher consent requirements mitigate the negative effect of indissolubility on the number of marriages contracted. The development of a theory of spousal consent marked a sharp break from pre-Christian practice, which gave parents substantial control over the choice of spouse. It also contrasted with Eastern Orthodoxy and Protestantism, both of which permitted remarriage after divorce. Our analysis suggests that the Church’s insistence on free consent was a necessary institutional complement to its unique stance on indissolubility, shaping marriage law and family structure in ways that reverberated throughout European history.

Read the full piece at SSRN.

Scholarship (Affiliate)

Affiliates in the News

John Lopatka on the Trump Administration’s AI Action Plan

ICLE Academic Affiliate, John Lopatka, was quoted in a Bloomberg article regarding the implications of the Trump administration’s AI action plan:

The blueprint’s recommendation that the FTC show more restraint on AI is “bound to benefit Microsoft in the FTC’s current investigation and other tech platforms as well,” according to John Lopatka, an antitrust professor at Penn State University.

Read the full piece here.

Jonathan Williams on Bankruptcy and Spirit Airlines

ICLE Academic Affiliate Jonathan Williams was quoted in a Newsweek piece regarding Spirit Airlines’ warning of closure after the company filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

“Once the possibility of a bankruptcy arises, it effectively becomes a self-fulfilling outcome,” said Jonathan Williams, a professor of economics at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “Passengers don’t want to book with a carrier that is canceling flights, removing markets, furloughing pilots, or potentially compromising safety for cost savings (i.e., a short-term time mindset to preserve cash).”

Read the full piece here.

Todd Henderson on the Trump Administration’s Intel Deal

ICLE Board Member and Academic Affiliate M. Todd Henderson was quoted in a Newsweek article concerning the Trump Administration’s deal with Intel that would give the federal government a 10 percent stake in the company:

M. Todd Henderson, a University of Chicago professor of law focusing on corporations and economics, told Newsweek he is not supportive of the deal—and believes it is better to have government and business separate. But he does not view it as creeping toward socialism.

“The idea that this is somehow like what F. A. Hayek would have called the road to serfdom—the first step down toward some sort of fascist or socialist state—I don’t think is super credible,” he said.

Read the full piece here.

Daniel Lyons on the FCC and Jimmy Kimmel’s Suspension

ICLE Academic Affiliate Daniel Lyons was quoted in an article regarding the FCC’s role in the suspension of “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”

The indefinite suspension by the ABC Television Network of “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” — officially concluding Tuesday (9/23) — is what the associate dean of academic affairs and Boston College Law School professor Daniel Lyons says “is part of a long, unfortunate FCC tradition of ‘regulation by raised eyebrow,’ where informal threats shape media behavior without formal action.”

That dynamic “underscores the risks inherent in having a communications regulator,” he argues, concluding that any intervention by the Commission led by Chairman Brendan Carr is difficult to see as “anything other than a violation of the spirit of the First Amendment.”

Read the full piece here.

David McGowan on the Use of AI in Court

ICLE Academic Affiliate David McGowan was quoted in an article from ABC 10 News San Diego regarding the use of erroneous information provided by AI in court:

“You can’t say things to judges that aren’t true,” McGowan says. “Judges have discretion to sanction lawyers, which is basically fine them money.”

McGowan also worries about people starting to skip lawyers altogether and using free AI tools to draft their own legal documents.

“If your document contains a case that’s made up and just doesn’t exist, that’s something that should be caught,” McGowan says. “Lawyers know how to do that. I don’t know that ordinary people do.”

Read the full piece here.

ICLE Affiliate Collaborations

ICLE was delighted to collaborate with our affiliates on these projects over the last few months!

ICLE Amicus to California Supreme Court in Ortiz v Daimler Trucks

In accordance with California Rule of Court 8.500(g), we are writing to urge the Court to grant the Petition for Review filed by Petitioner Daimler Truck North America LLC (“Petitioner” or “Daimler”) in the above-captioned matter.

At root, products liability doctrine and public policy concerning innovative technologies share a common aim: to manage tradeoffs in the face of uncertainty. No product can be made perfectly safe, and attempting to do so often reduces welfare—including safety—on other margins. This is especially true when evaluating emerging technologies, such as advanced driver assistance systems, where the benefits of innovation must be weighed against the risk of chilling progress. Public policy decisions that impose additional safety requirements inevitably entail opportunity costs. For instance, dramatically increasing the mandated safety equipment on commercial trucks may reduce certain categories of accidents, but it can also lead to higher vehicle costs, reduced freight capacity, and greater barriers to market entry. These effects may cascade into higher consumer prices, fewer available goods, and reduced access to essential services—particularly in underserved areas. Even well-intentioned efforts to maximize safety in one domain can inadvertently diminish it in others.

To this end, we believe the Petitioner is correct in pointing out that:

By requiring, through judicial fiat, that DTNA and all commercial truck manufacturers… now have a duty to equip vehicles with technology that is still under study by NHTSA, the Court of Appeal effectively bypassed NHTSA and the rulemaking process for setting safety standards governing the design of heavy-duty trucks.  (Pet. 11.)

The fact that collision-avoidance systems like automatic emergency braking (“AEB”) remain under study by the federal agency principally responsible for national vehicle safety standards—NHTSA—speaks volumes. This is not to suggest that NHTSA’s process is infallible, but rather to underscore that even the expert body tasked with evaluating these technologies and their tradeoffs is proceeding with caution. Contrary to the assumptions made by the court below, the introduction of advanced automation technologies into commercial vehicles is neither a self-evident good nor a regulatory afterthought. These systems are still being scrutinized precisely because they involve difficult tradeoffs. Overreliance on automation, for example, may lead to increased driver complacency—a behavioral response long studied in the economic literature as the Peltzman effect (See, e.g., Decision Lab, The Peltzman Effect, https://thedecisionlab.com/reference-guide/psychology/the-peltzman-effect, last visited Aug. 7, 2025)—where gains in technological safety are offset, in whole or in part, by riskier human behavior. That the federal government has not yet mandated these systems, despite years of research and public pressure, reflects a policy judgment that their benefits are not yet unequivocal or costless.

The Court of Appeal’s recognition of a novel duty of care—effectively requiring truck manufacturers to preemptively install optional safety technologies like AEB—raises serious concerns for the future of innovation and public safety. By shifting highly technical design decisions from engineers and regulators into the hands of juries and judges evaluating events in hindsight, the decision introduces legal uncertainty into what had been a carefully calibrated area of commercial activity.

The likely result of this expanded tort duty is to deter manufacturers from pursuing or introducing new safety technologies unless and until they are mandated by regulation—creating a paradox, as regulators typically base mandates on technologies that have already been developed, tested, and brought to market. If manufacturers are discouraged from innovating in the first place, regulators will have little upon which to base future safety requirements. In effect, the California court’s approach risks turning automotive safety into a speculative exercise in “science fiction,” where the only technologies regulators could mandate would be those imagined, rather than those proven in the real world. The larger risk is that judicially-imposed duties of this kind will distort innovation incentives across industries, undermining the incremental and iterative processes that typically drive meaningful progress.

These concerns are especially acute in the context of emerging artificial intelligence systems, such as driver-assistance technologies and semi-autonomous features, where the optimal mix of capabilities on the road remains unsettled. Regulators, researchers, and industry participants continue to assess how human drivers interact with increasingly automated systems, and how those systems perform under real-world conditions. Prematurely imposing tort duties that treat optional, evolving technologies as baseline safety requirements risks locking in early design choices and penalizing the very experimentation that is necessary to improve outcomes over time. In such a dynamic environment, the path to safer roads is not to mandate specific configurations through litigation, but to allow a flexible, data-driven process of evaluation and refinement led by experts and guided by evidence.

We respectfully urge the Court to grant review and clarify that manufacturers do not owe a legal duty to accelerate the development or deployment of alternative products, nor should they be held liable for commercialization decisions made in good faith under conditions of regulatory and technical uncertainty. Further, this case raises the same core question now pending before the Court in Gilead: whether a company may be sued for failing to bring to market a product that, in hindsight, might have been safer or more desirable than the one actually sold. (Case No. S283862, Review granted May 1, 2024.) These identical concerns make Ortiz an ideal candidate for a “grant and hold” order pending resolution of Gilead, which will directly bear on the viability of the duty recognized below. Until this threshold issue is resolved, imposing tort liability based on the timing or scope of innovation decisions risks undermining California’s longstanding commitment to balanced, innovation-friendly product liability law.

Interest of Amicus Curiae

The International Center for Law & Economics (“ICLE”) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to advancing policy grounded in sound economic principles. Our work focuses on applying the tools of law and economics to contemporary legal and regulatory issues, particularly those involving innovation and the institutional frameworks that support dynamic markets. We study both artificial intelligence (“AI”) and the principles of liability—particularly products liability—that are directly implicated in the present matter.  In submitting this letter, we seek to outline several key concerns regarding the potential chilling effects on innovation that could result from the Court of Appeal’s ruling in this matter.[1]

The Court of Appeal’s Duty Theory Would Expand Liability Without an Actual Defect

The Court of Appeal’s recognition of a duty to equip commercial trucks with emerging safety technologies like AEB represents a substantial and unwarranted departure from traditional California products liability law. Historically, plaintiffs have been required to show that the product that actually injured them was defective. (Kim v. Toyota Motor Corp. (2018) 6 Cal.5th 21, 30, 237 Cal.Rptr.3d 205, 424 P.3d 290; Kalash v. Los Angeles Ladder Co. (1934) 1 Cal.2d 229, 233.) By contrast, the theory accepted below imposes liability not for any defect in the truck as manufactured or sold, but for the manufacturer’s decision not to include a still-evolving, non-mandated technology at the time of production. That shift in doctrine opens the door to a much broader form of liability—one that could apply to any product, at any time, simply because a plaintiff can argue that a better version might have been possible sooner.

Indeed, the history of regulatory examination and market adoption of these sorts of AEB systems suggests that Petitioner was moving at a reasonable pace in integrating them. Indeed, NHTSA’s measured approach to adopting these systems as a standard was vindicated by its 2023 investigation into false AEB activations in Freightliner trucks—the very manufacturer in this case—where 18 complaints documented trucks braking inappropriately ‘with no actual roadway obstacle present.’ (Tyson Fisher, NHTSA Investigates Automatic Emergency Braking on Daimler Trucks, Landline.MEDIA, May 31, 2023, https://landline.media/nhtsa-investigates-automatic-emergency-braking-on-daimler-trucks/).  Thus NHTSA’s cautious timeline reflected genuine technical concerns which, undoubtedly, the manufacturers were also considering. Moreover, the market has already been responding effectively: by 2023 a majority of the manufacturers who were part of the Truck and Engine Manufacturer’s Association (which includes Daimler (see Truck & Engine Manufacturer’s Association, Member Companies, https://www.truckandenginemanufacturers.org/companies/ last visited Aug. 7, 2025) were installing AEB technology on a “majority of new highway tractors.” In recent comments to NHTSA, however, the Association voiced a concern which echoes well the sentiment of this letter:

(Engine and Truck Manufacturer’s Association) member companies and their system suppliers constantly improve AEB technologies to more accurately detect objects in the road ahead so the systems can better differentiate between a potential collision and other situations, thereby more effectively mitigating potential crashes.

Simultaneously, manufacturers and designers improve AEB systems to minimize the false activations that cause drivers and fleets to lose confidence in the technology and can cause other unintended adverse safety consequences. (Comments Of The Truck And Engine Manufacturers Association, Heavy Vehicle Automatic Emergency Braking; AEB Test Device, NHTSA Docket No. NHTSA-2023-0023, https://www.regulations.gov/comment/NHTSA-2023-0023-0667.)

The risk of the expansive liability that the decision below would encourage is particularly acute when the harm at issue is speculative and untethered from any defect. The truck in this case complied with all applicable federal and state safety standards. The plaintiffs do not allege a failure to warn or a malfunction. Instead, they assert that Petitioner should have opted to include a particular advanced driver assistance system—despite its optional status and the lack of any regulatory mandate at the time. That kind of hindsight-based duty theory transforms a lawful, fully regulated product into a source of liability simply because the manufacturer did not predict, and preemptively act on, evolving preferences and technologies.

As with the pharmaceutical development at issue in Gilead, decisions about product design—particularly with respect to emerging technologies—are complex and layered. Introducing a new safety system is not costless, nor is it automatically net beneficial. Engineering constraints, interoperability, reliability, consumer training, and the risk of overreliance all factor into whether and when to incorporate such tools. The Court of Appeal’s suggestion that manufacturers knew the system was better, and should therefore have included it, elides those difficult tradeoffs. The reality is that even regulators such as NHTSA have taken years to evaluate these technologies—precisely because the costs and benefits are not obvious, and the wrong configuration may undermine safety.

The plaintiffs’ duty theory also rests on a fundamental misunderstanding of how manufacturers operate in the face of technological uncertainty and market complexity. The question here is not whether the collision-avoidance system could ultimately prove beneficial—many innovations are—but whether Petitioner was under a legal obligation to adopt it at a time when neither federal regulators had mandated it nor the relevant customer base had widely embraced it. In reality, Petitioner was actively working to integrate the system into its product offerings and understand where it would provide the greatest value.

Adoption decisions during this period reflected a range of considerations—technical readiness, compatibility with existing fleet operations, driver preferences, and empirical performance data—not simply cost of adoption. Drivers accustomed to traditional braking systems may have resisted the perceived intrusiveness or unpredictability of early-generation AEB, especially where reports of false activations raised safety concerns. When an optional system is offered at nominal cost and still not widely adopted by sophisticated fleet operators, that fact should carry important evidentiary weight. To retroactively impose a tort duty to include the system in all vehicles, despite the absence of a regulatory requirement and clear market demand, would run counter to the very conditions of uncertainty in which these design decisions were made.

California law has never recognized a duty to preemptively innovate, nor a duty to equip products with technologies that remain optional and unmandated by expert regulatory agencies. To adopt such a duty now would undermine the stability of product design decisions across industries and invite courts to act as de facto technology regulators—without the tools, expertise, or perspective to balance long-run innovation incentives with short-term litigation pressures.

The Court’s Foreseeability Analysis Overlooks Uncertainty, Tradeoffs, and Regulatory Context

Implicit in its application of the Rowland foreseeability factor, the Court of Appeal relied heavily on the general proposition that rear-end truck collisions are foreseeable. But this flattens a much more complex analysis. As this Court has emphasized, Rowland requires courts to assess foreseeability at a general level—asking not whether this specific injury was predictable, but whether the category of conduct at issue is sufficiently likely to result in the kind of harm alleged to justify imposing a duty. (Cabral v. Ralphs Grocery Co., 51 Cal.4th 764, 772 (2011).) But even at that level of abstraction, the foreseeability inquiry cannot ignore the context in which a manufacturer is making design and commercialization decisions about an emerging technology.

Petitioner, like other manufacturers, was engaged in developing and refining advanced safety technologies—technologies whose deployment involved meaningful tradeoffs in cost, usability, and driver acceptance. The foreseeability question cannot be reduced to “was a rear-end collision foreseeable?”—of course it was—but must instead be framed around the foreseeability of preventable harms given the real-world constraints of product development, incomplete information, and market readiness.

The Court of Appeal’s foreseeability framework effectively punishes manufacturers for the very uncertainty that defines emerging technology development. NHTSA itself characterized AEB technology as emerging and requiring further validation through the 2010s—precisely because the optimal deployment, potential false activation risks, and behavioral adaptation effects remained unresolved. (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard; Automatic Emergency Braking, 49 CFR Part 571 (2015), https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2015-10-16/pdf/2015-26294.pdf) By treating the ex post occurrence of an accident as evidence that the manufacturer should have ex ante anticipated the need for a specific technological response, the court inverts the proper temporal orientation of the foreseeability inquiry. Under this logic, every safety innovation becomes retrospective proof that its absence was unreasonable—a standard that would render product development decisions essentially strict liability determinations dressed in negligence doctrine. This approach is particularly problematic when, as here, expert regulatory bodies were themselves still evaluating the technology’s optimal deployment.

Manufacturers were navigating a landscape of emerging technology, uncertain adoption, and evolving standards. In this context, the foreseeability analysis should have considered not every potential downstream injury, but whether it was reasonably feasible—ex ante—for Petitioner to treat non-adoption of an optional system as categorically unreasonable. By treating optional AEB systems as presumptively required, the court below flattened the analysis and imposed a duty without regard for the careful, iterative process by which both regulators and manufacturers evaluate emerging technologies.

Moreover, this narrow view of foreseeability ignores the tradeoffs inherent in requiring the early adoption of new technologies. The tort system must not overlook the downstream harms that arise when well-intentioned mandates distort complex systems. AEB systems, like all safety technologies, entail costs—not just financial, but operational and behavioral. Driver discomfort or resistance, incompatibility with fleet logistics, and the risk of false activations  all shape whether and how these systems are integrated. Requiring their inclusion in all trucks, regardless of use case, driver training, or real-world performance, risks unintended consequences—such as increased costs for goods movement, reduced fleet turnover, or even degraded safety if drivers over-rely on automation.

These are precisely the kinds of tradeoffs regulators are best positioned to evaluate. Tort law is not well-suited to substitute its own hindsight judgments for this kind of prospective, system-level analysis.

Public Policy Factors Undermine the Court of Appeal’s Holding

The Court of Appeal rejected Petitioner’s concern that recognizing a duty here would unreasonably require manufacturers to adopt novel technologies as they become available. (Op. at 19-20). It framed the duty as a narrow one, triggered only where a manufacturer declines to include a safety feature that is allegedly effective, feasible, and already available at the time of sale. (Id.) But this dismissal of Petitioner’s concerns did not give due attention to the downstream innovation effects. In practice, recognizing a duty based on availability alone collapses the line between emerging and established technologies and invites courts to impose liability whenever a newer, potentially better safety system could have been included but wasn’t. That is not a narrow duty—it is a deeply expansive one, and it risks distorting the careful, case-by-case tradeoffs that innovation requires.

This internal contradiction in the Court of Appeal’s reasoning deserves closer scrutiny. Petitioner did not ignore or suppress the technology at issue—it invested in developing Detroit Assurance 4.0, brought it to market, and on multiple occasions sought to persuade its customers to adopt it. The company provided marketing materials and training that emphasized the system’s safety benefits, highlighting its potential to reduce collisions and save lives. These efforts were aimed at encouraging adoption by a customer base that was, at the time, still acclimating to the presence of automated driver-assistance features in commercial vehicles. The problem, as the court sees it, is not that Petitioner failed to innovate or withheld a safety system, but that it respected its customers’ decision not to include the system as standard. In effect, the Court has treated Petitioner’s refusal to mandate the technology—despite its affirmative efforts to encourage its use—as a basis for liability. That is not a failure of reasonable care; it is a reflection of market realities and regulatory discretion during a period of technological transition. Thus, in essence, the Court of Appeal would allow legal liability against Petitioner for not forcing wide-spread market adoption fast enough.

The concerns that this case creates are not hypothetical. In the table saw industry, for example, this dynamic played out in the table-saw safety technology surrounding SawStop. (See Tanner B. Samples, Protecting “Learned Hands”: Table Saw Injuries, the Sawstop Saga, and How Our Design Defect Doctrine Is Disincentivizing Safety, 69 Geo. L. Rev. 671, 676-79). There, the inventor of a breakthrough safety system alleged that leading manufacturers actively avoided adopting or even acknowledging the technology—not because it was ineffective, but because they feared that its inclusion in some products could be used against them in design defect litigation. (Id.) Rather than take the legal risk of being the “first mover,” manufacturers kept the innovation out of their product lines altogether. The chilling effect was so strong that the industry’s apparent position became circular: no one adopted the safety feature because it was “not industry standard,” and it wasn’t industry standard because no one adopted it.

Ortiz risks replicating—and metastasizing—that pathology. Here, Daimler did exactly what the saw manufacturers feared: it developed an advanced safety system, marketed its benefits, and tried to convince a hesitant customer base to adopt it. Rather than being rewarded for this leadership, it now faces liability for failing to make adoption mandatory. The Court of Appeal’s decision effectively converts the manufacturer’s own innovation into a litigation trigger. That sends the wrong message. It tells manufacturers that if they try to introduce a new safety feature, they may not just fail to persuade the market—they may expose themselves to legal claims for not imposing it unilaterally. This is precisely the incentive structure that drove the SawStop standoff and potentially stifled adoption of a technology now widely understood to reduce harm. If this Court does not correct the Ortiz rule, that same perverse logic will take hold in industries like trucking, where technological improvement depends on iterative development, fleet-level adoption, and gradual normalization—not on one-size-fits-all mandates imposed through litigation.  And whether a manufacturer’s failure to include a given technology is characterized as a “design defect” or a “negligent omission,” the deeper risk is the same: that liability will attach not just for a known hazard, but for failing to predict the optimal timing and scope of adoption of still-evolving systems.

This concern is magnified in a field like commercial vehicle design, where innovation is iterative, operational constraints vary widely, and driver acceptance is critical. Even if a technology like AEB holds promise—and is ultimately proven beneficial—it does not follow that its earlier, discretionary adoption is the proper basis for a tort duty. At the time Petitioner built the truck in question, Detroit Assurance 4.0 was offered as an option, not required by federal regulation, and still undergoing field evaluation. Some customers declined to include it. Drivers were still adapting to its functionality. And regulators, including NHTSA, had not yet finalized a standard. That is not an environment of legal clarity; it is one of ongoing policy calibration. Tort law should not short-circuit that process.

Indeed, the cost of recognizing a duty in this context is the risk that manufacturers will either delay innovation to avoid creating retroactive liabilities or commercialize only the most defensible, conservative solutions—those least likely to attract litigation, not those most likely to advance safety. Economic incentives operate at the margin, and even a modest shift in legal exposure can reconfigure product development pipelines. The Court of Appeal’s decision gives insufficient weight to this systemic risk. The tort system, when overextended, can suppress exactly the kind of progress it purports to promote.

Conclusion

The Court of Appeal’s decision threatens to transform California tort law from a system that encourages reasonable care into one that imposes retroactive liability for failing to predict technological futures. By imposing a duty to install non-mandated safety systems during their developmental phase—when even a relevant regulator was proceeding cautiously—the decision inverts the proper relationship between regulatory expertise and judicial oversight, substitutes hindsight bias for ex ante reasonableness, and risks chilling the very innovation it purports to promote. We respectfully urge the Court to grant review to preserve California’s balanced approach to products liability and prevent the emergence of a “duty to innovate” that would ultimately harm both innovation and safety.

[1] No party or counsel for a party authored or paid for this amicus letter in whole or in part.

Amicus Brief

Brief of Scholars and Former Judges and Officials to US District Court in Arbutus v Moderna

Interest of Amicus Curiae

Amici curiae are 16 former judges, former federal officials, and academic scholars who have expertise in patent law, takings law, or both. They have an interest in ensuring the integrity of the patent system and the proper application of the federal government’s eminent domain power to patented inventions. Amici have no stake in the parties or in the outcome of this case. A full list of signatories to this brief is set forth in Addendum A.[1]

Summary of Argument

This Court previously and correctly held that 28 U.S.C. § 1498(a) is inapplicable to a private company that enters into a contract with the federal government for payment of vaccine doses distributed by private companies for use by private citizens. See Arbutus Biopharma Corp. v. Moderna, Inc., No. CV 22-252, 2023 WL 2455979 (D. Del. Mar. 10, 2023). In the context of a federal payment or subsidy of private transactions, the use of a patented invention between the private parties is not “‘for the Government’ which is . . . a necessary factor under § 1498(a).” Id. at *2. As this Court’s prior decision recognized, the text, legislative history, and judicial interpretation of 28 U.S.C. § 1498(a) establish this is an eminent domain statute with no applicability to the portion of the contract between Moderna and the federal government that subsidized vaccine doses for the general public, as opposed to the federal government’s purchase of vaccine doses for military personnel or federal employees.

The C-100 contract between Moderna, Inc. and the federal government states that the federal government will pay for the manufacture and use of vaccine doses “for the United States Government (USG) and the US population.” In this case, Moderna elides the express distinction in the C-100 contract between the federal government’s payment for vaccine doses for its own employees and military personnel and payment for the vaccine doses “for . . . the US population.” The federal government’s decision to subsidize vaccine doses “for. . . the US population” does not meet the statutory requirement in § 1498(a) that a patented invention is made or used “by or for the United States” or that a contractor like Moderna made or used a patented invention “for the Government.”

Section 1498(a) is an eminent domain statute that is inapplicable to the federal government’s policy decisions to subsidize private transactions in the marketplace, such as paying for the costs of private citizens receiving vaccine doses from private companies. This statute authorizes the U.S. Court of Federal Claims to adjudicate a claim by a patent owner for “reasonable and entire compensation” when its patented invention is “used or manufactured by or for the United States without license of the owner.” Id. (emphasis added). Thus, this Court should hold again as a matter of law that § 1498(a) is inapplicable to the patent infringement claim by Arbutus Biopharma Corporation against Moderna for the unauthorized manufacture and use of vaccine doses “for the . . . US population,” as distinguished from the express portion of the C-100 contract in which vaccine doses were manufactured and used “for the United States Government.”

Argument

I. Section 1498(a) is an Eminent Domain Statute

A. The Provenance of § 1498(a)

The provenance of § 1498(a) is found in many nineteenth-century federal court decisions that patents are private property rights secured under the Takings Clause of the U.S. Constitution. In these decisions, the Supreme Court and lower federal courts consistently held that patents are private property secured under the Constitution. They include, for example:

  • “[T]he government cannot, after the patent is issued, make use of the improvement any more than a private individual, without license of the inventor or making compensation to him.” United States v. Burns, 79 U.S. 246, 252 (1870).
  • A patent owner can seek compensation for the unauthorized use of his patented invention by federal officials because “[p]rivate property … shall not be taken for public use without just compensation.” Cammeyer v. Newton, 94 U.S. 225, 234 (1876).
  • “Inventions secured by letters-patent are property in the holder of the patent, and as such are as much entitled to protection as any other property. . . . Private property, the constitution provides, shall not be taken for public use without just compensation . . . .” Brady v. Atlantic Works, 3 F. Cas. 1190, 1192 (C.C.D. Mass. 1876) (Clifford, Circuit Justice), rev’d on other grounds, 107 U.S. 192 (1883).
  • A patent is not a “grant” of special privilege; the text and structure of the Constitution, as well as court decisions, establish that patents are property rights secured under the Takings Clause). McKeever v. United States, 14 Ct. Cl. 396, 421 (1878).

Despite these many court decisions, courts expressed confusion at the turn of the twentieth century concerning their jurisdiction to adjudicate a takings claim by a patent owner. See Adam Mossoff, Patents as Constitutional Private Property: The Historical Protection of Patents under the Takings Clause, 87 B.U. L. REV. 689, 712-14 (2007). Congress thus enacted in 1910 the predecessor statute to § 1498(a) to resolve this constitutional confusion. See Act of June 26, 1910, ch. 423, 36 Stat. 851, 851-52 (1910) (codified as amended in 28 U.S.C. § 1498(a)). The text and legislative history confirm that this is an eminent domain statute.

The modern Supreme Court has confirmed the long-standing rule that patents are property rights secured under the Takings Clause and Due Process Clauses. Roughly twenty years ago, the Supreme Court held that patents are “property” under the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. See Florida Prepaid Postsecondary Educ. Expense Bd. v. Coll. Sav. Bank, 527 U.S. 627, 642–43 (1999). In 2015, the Supreme Court approvingly quoted an 1882 decision stating that “[a patent] confers upon the patentee an exclusive property in the patented invention which cannot be appropriated or used by the government itself, without just compensation, any more than it can appropriate or use without compensation land which has been patented to a private purchaser.” Horne v. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, 135 S. Ct. 2419, 2427 (2015) (quoting James v. Campbell, 104 U.S. 356, 358 (1882)).

B. The Legislative History of § 1498(a) Confirms it is an Eminent Domain Statute

The House committee report for the bill that became § 1498(a) expressly stated that the federal government was using patents without authorization “in flat violation of [the Takings Clause] and the decisions of the Supreme Court.” H.R. Rep. No. 61-1288, at 3 (1910). During the congressional debates leading up to the enactment of § 1498(a), the bill’s sponsor, Representative Currier, emphasized that the legislation “does not create any liability; it simply gives a remedy upon an existing liability.” 45 Cong. Rec. 8755, 8756 (1910). Throughout the congressional debates, legislators repeatedly referenced the earlier-cited court decisions, (see supra Part I.A), that consistently stated that patent owners have a constitutional remedy under the Takings Clause to receive just compensation for an unauthorized use of their patents by federal officials. See H.R. Rep. No. 61-1288, at 1-4.

C. The Text of § 1498(a) Confirms it is an Eminent Domain Statute

The court precedents and legislative history confirm the plain meaning of the text of § 1498(a), which simply authorizes claims of reasonable compensation arising from exercises of the government’s eminent domain power. Section 1498(a) states that a patent owner can sue the federal government in the Court of Federal Claims (originally the Court of Claims) for “recovery of his reasonable and entire compensation” when a patented invention is “used or manufactured by or for the United States without license of the owner.”

In 1918, after extensive federal procurement efforts with contractors during World War One, Congress amended § 1498(a) to authorize lawsuits by patent owners for reasonable compensation from the government when federal contractors infringe their patents. See Act of July 1, 1918, ch. 114, 40 Stat. 704, 705 (1918) (codified as amended in 28 U.S.C. § 1498(a)). This amendment added the “used or manufactured by or for the United States” that currently exists in § 1498(a). Id. Consistent with its function as an eminent domain statute, the statute was amended  again shortly after the U.S. entered World War Two, requiring suits against the government for compensation for patent infringement by federal contractors, but again this amendment is limited to only when contractors make or use a patented invention “for the Government.” Act of October 31, 1942, Pub. L. 768, § 6, 77th Cong. 2d Sess., 56 Stat. 1013, 1014 (1942) (codified as amended in 28 U.S.C. 1498(a)).

In this case, the C-100 contract between Moderna and the federal government expressly distinguishes between the vaccine doses acquired for use by the federal government versus the vaccine doses acquired for use by private citizens in the general public. In the C.1 Scope provision, the contract states that the federal government is paying for “manufacturing of vaccine doses . . . for the United States Government (USG) and the US population” (emphasis added). (D.I. 520-1 § C.1.) In provision C.1.1.1, the C-100 contract further stipulates that the federal government is paying for “large scale manufacturing so that vaccine doses . . . are immediately available for nationwide access . . . and the medical countermeasures are authorized for widespread use.” (Id. § C.1.1.1.)

The federal government’s payment of manufacture and use of vaccine doses “for the . . . US population” and “for nationwide access” is not an example of a contractor making and using a patented invention “for the United States,” 35 U.S.C. § 1498(a), because these vaccine doses were distributed by private companies for use by private healthcare patients. The “by and for the United States” text in § 1498(a) limits its applicability to manufacture or use of patent inventions by the federal government, or by federal contractors acting “for the Government,” such as the unauthorized use of patented inventions for the U.S. military in the nineteenth century. See Burns, 79 U.S. at 251-54 (unauthorized use of patented tent by U.S. military); McKeever, 14 Ct. Cl. at 417 (unauthorized use of a patented cartridge by U.S. military).

The twentieth-century lawsuits brought by patent owners under § 1498(a) confirm the express limitation of this statute to classic examples of the federal government’s exercise of its eminent domain power in acquiring property for the use by the U.S. military or federal agencies. See, e.g., Hughes Aircraft Co. v. Messerschmitt-Boelkow-Blohm, 625 F.2d 580 (5th Cir. 1980); Hughes Aircraft Co. v. United States, 534 F.2d 889 (Ct. Cl. 1976); Croll-Reynolds Co. v. Perini-Leavell-Jones-Vinell, 399 F.2d 913 (5th Cir. 1968), cert. denied, 393 U.S. 1050 (1969). One famous § 1498(a) case arose from the U.S. military’s unauthorized use of a patented battery during World War Two. See United States v. Adams, 383 U.S. 39 (1966).

In sum, the plain text of § 1498(a) and its legislative history make clear that it does not apply to products and services that are paid for by the public fisc but are ultimately made for private companies to distribute for “widespread use” by private citizens across the nation. (D.I. 520-1 § C.1.1.1.) Although the C-100 contract provides for the authorization or consent of the Government, this consent triggers this statute’s indemnity protections for federal contractors only when such manufacture or use is “for the Government.” 35 U.S.C. § 1498(a). Thus, § 1498(a) applies only to the portion of the C-100 contract by which the government paid for the manufacture of vaccine doses “for the United States Government,” (id.), such as for “use” by U.S. military personnel and federal employees. For the other portion of the C-100 contract providing for payment of vaccine doses for “the US population,” § 1498(a) is inapplicable as a matter of law. For the nationwide access to its vaccine doses by the US population generally, Moderna’s contract with the federal government was for use by private patients in the U.S. healthcare market.

This Court previously and correctly denied Moderna’s motion to dismiss by recognizing that § 1498(a) applies only when a contractor makes or uses a patented invention “for the Government.” Arbutus Biopharma Corp., 2022 WL 16635341, at *7. The federal government may have derived an incidental benefit from resolution of the COVID-19 public health emergency through the private distribution and use of vaccines by private patients, but this Court rightly recognized that “[i]ncidental benefit to the government is insufficient” to trigger § 1498(a) as an affirmative defense in a patent infringement lawsuit. Id. at *5 (quoting IRIS Corp. v. Japan Airlines Corp., 769 F.3d 1359, 1361 (Fed. Cir. 2014)).

II. Judicial Interpretation of § 1498(a) Confirms it is an Eminent Domain Statute Inapposite to Private Transactions in the Marketplace

This Court, in its prior decision denying Moderna’s motion to dismiss the complaint by Arbutus, recognized and applied binding precedents that have construed § 1498(a) as an eminent domain statute. This explains why the federal government must use a patented invention, or at least be a direct beneficiary of a contractor making or using a patented invention for the government, to trigger its requirement of payment of “reasonable and entire compensation” by the government. § 1498(a). In addition to the cases discussed by this Court, see Arbutus Biopharma Corp., 2022 WL 16635341, at *4-*7, federal courts have consistently recognized for well over half a century that § 1498 is an eminent domain statute. See Decca Ltd. v. United States, 544 F.2d 1070, 1082 (Ct. Cl. 1976) (“It is [the government’s] taking of a license, without compensation, that is, under an eminent domain theory, the basis for a suit under § 1498.”); Carter-Wallace, Inc. v. United States, 449 F.2d 1374, 1390 (Ct. Cl. 1971) (Nichols, J., concurring) (stating that § 1498(a) authorizes a claim in court “to recover just compensation for a taking under the power of Eminent Domain”); Irving Air Chute Co. v. United States, 93 F. Supp. 633, 635 (Ct. Cl. 1950) (stating that § 1498(a) is “an eminent domain statute”).

This Court acknowledged in its earlier decision that courts have recognized that the federal government need not be a primary or sole beneficiary, as first stated in Advanced Software Design Corp. v. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 583 F.3d 1371, 1373-74 (Fed. Cir. 2009). In Advanced Software, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit held that a regional Federal Reserve bank acted “for the government” when it used a process for detecting fraudulent Treasury checks that infringed a patent on this process. The Federal Circuit concluded that “the benefits to the government of using the [infringing fraud-detection] technology on Treasury checks are not incidental effects of private interests.” Id. at 1379. Thus, the Advanced Software court concluded that the patent owner had to proceed in a lawsuit against the federal government under § 1498(a), and not in a lawsuit against the specific Federal Reserve bank that infringed its patent. Given the formal relationship between the federal government and the Federal Reserve System in managing the official currency printed by the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing in the U.S. Department of Treasury, this decision makes sense, both legally and commonsensically.

The Federal Reserve System is not the same legal or commercial entity as a private company that manufactures and sells a drug or vaccine dose. The Federal Reserve System is also not the same legal or commercial entity as a private company that distributes this drug or vaccine dose for use by private patients in the marketplace. Notably, the Advanced Software court expressly distinguished the Federal Reserve System as an entity “for the Government” from a private company that was paid by Medicare in providing a medical device to a private patient in Larson v. United States, 26 Cl. Ct. 365, 369 (1992).

Larson is more similar in its facts to the C-100 contract between Moderna and the federal government than the facts of Advanced Software, as previously recognized by this Court. Arbutus Biopharma Corp., 2022 WL 16635341, at *7 (“I find this case more akin to Larson than Advanced Software Design”). In Larson, a patent owner sued a private medical company for infringing its patent on a medical device (a splint), and the splints were paid through government programs such as Medicaid or Medicare. Id. at 367-68. Given that “the government reimbursed the cost [of the infringing splint] through Medicare and other federal programs,” id., the defendant argued that the patent owner’s lawsuit must proceed against the government under § 1498(a). The Larson court rejected this argument, stating that “government reimbursement of medical care expenses did not constitute a use of a medical patent for government purposes,” as required by the text of § 1498(a) in authorizing lawsuits against the federal government for compensation. Id. at 369. Similarly in this case, the federal government’s payment to Moderna for its vaccine doses to be distributed “for the . . . US population” in the healthcare market for “nationwide access” by private individuals, (D.I. 520-1 § C.1.1.1), is not a use of a patent “for the Government.” 23 U.S.C. § 1498(a).

In the Federal Circuit’s decision in Advanced Software seventeen years later, the appellate court reaffirmed the key holding of Larson that “[t]he fact that the government has an interest in the [healthcare] program generally, or funds or reimburses all or part of its costs, is too remote to make the government the program’s beneficiary for the purposes underlying § 1498.” Advanced Software, 583 F.3d at 1379 quoting Larson, 26 Ct. Cl. at 369) (emphasis added). This has long been recognized by scholars as well. One monograph acknowledges that § 1498(a) must be “modified” if it is “to apply to governmental payment for drugs prescribed for beneficiaries of such federal health programs as Medicare and Medicaid.” Milton Silverman & Philip R. Lee, Pills, Profits, and Politics 187 (1974).[2]

Applying both Advanced Software and Larson, this Court rightly recognized in its order denying Moderna’s motion to dismiss, “Moderna’s argument . . . could mean that every government-funded product used to advance any policy goal articulated by the U.S. Government—such as IV needles to fight HIV to cancer drugs to fight the war on cancer—would be subject to a § 1498(a) defense.” Arbutus Biopharma Corp., 2022 WL 16635341, at *7. Given widespread federal funding of healthcare services today, Moderna’s argument would convert every patent infringement lawsuit arising from patents covering drugs or other healthcare treatments into a suit for compensation against the federal government for the exercise of its eminent domain power. The absence of any limiting principle in Moderna’s argument reveals how divorced this argument is from the text, congressional intent, and judicial interpretation of § 1498(a) as an eminent domain statute.

Conclusion

This Court should hold again as a matter of law that § 1498(a) is applicable only to the unauthorized manufacture or use of patents by or for the United States, and thus deny Moderna’s motion for summary judgment as applied to the vaccine doses manufactured by Moderna under the C-100 contract “for the . . . US population.”

[1] Pursuant to Fed. R. App. P. 29(a)(4)(E), amici state that no counsel for a party authored this brief in whole or in part, and that no person other than amici, their members, or their counsel contributed money that was intended to fund preparing or submitting the brief.

[2] For more recent scholarship analyzing the text and judicial construction of § 1498(a) and reaching the same conclusion, see Adam Mossoff, The False Promise of Breaking Patents to Lower Drug Prices, 98 ST. JOHN’S L. REV. 287, 292-310 (2024); Susan G. Braden & Joshua A. Kresh, Section 1498(a) is Not a Rx to Reduce Drug Prices, 77 FOOD & DRUG L.J. 274 (2022).

Amicus Brief

Lessons for Antitrust from the Capital One-Discover Merger: Is There a Subprime Market in Credit Cards?

Abstract

In April 2025, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency cleared the proposed $35 billion merger of Capital One and Discover Bank, making the combined company the third-largest credit card issuers by volume. Because of the highly decentralized nature of the U.S. credit card industry, the merger typically would draw minimal regulatory scrutiny. Because of the significant market share of the two entities in the so-called “subprime” credit card market, however, the merger presented a novel question at the intersection of competition policy and consumer financial services—whether the “subprime” market should be analyzed as a separate market for antitrust purposes. According to one estimate the combined entity will have approximately 30% of the subprime market at the time the merger is consummated.

The OCC did not specifically address whether there was a “subprime” market that should be treated as a separate market for purposes of analyzing the effect on consumers and competition. We agree with that analysis. Although the term “subprime” is used colloquially, defining a “sub-prime market” lacks a determinate and stable definition for purposes of rigorous antitrust analysis. Moreover, consumers who participate in the subprime market are subject to constant change and turnover, moving frequently between the subprime and prime markets. Finally, given the permeability of any demarcation between “prime” and “subprime” consumers, other large credit card issuers already have a presence in the subprime market and could easily expand their existing opera-tions if Capital One-Discover attempted to increase prices for consumers.

Read the full piece at SSRN.

Scholarship (ICLE)

ICLE Brief to the Third Circuit in Reading Hospital v Hill-Rom Holdings

INTEREST OF AMICI CURIAE[1]

The International Center for Law & Economics (“ICLE”) is a nonprofit, non-partisan global research and policy center aimed at building the intellectual foundations for sensible, economically grounded policy. ICLE promotes using law and economics methodologies and economic learning to inform policy and has expertise evaluating antitrust law and policy.

ICLE has an interest in ensuring that antitrust law promotes the public interest by remaining grounded in rules informed by sound economic analysis.

Professor Thomas A. Lambert is the Wall Chair in Corporate Law and Governance at the University of Missouri, School of Law, a recognized antitrust scholar, and an academic affiliate of ICLE.

PRELIMINARY STATEMENT

The First Amended Class Action Complaint (“FAC”) by named plaintiff Reading Hospital (“Reading”) against defendant Hill-Rom Holdings, et. al. (“Hill-Rom”) is remarkably unspecific. Reading complains about “corporate enterprise agreements” (“CEAs”) between Hill-Rom and various “integrated delivery networks” (“IDNs”), which are health systems that own or manage multiple hospitals. The IDN with which Reading is affiliated, Tower Health, is a party to one of those CEAs, so Reading surely knows what the agreements entail.

Despite that fact, Reading alleges little about the specific content of the CEAs it is challenging. The FAC avers that the challenged agreements required or encouraged IDN members to buy all or most of their requirements of three types of hospital beds (standard, ICU, and birthing beds) from Hill-Rom rather than from its two leading competitors, Stryker and Linet, both of which produce all three types of beds and compete to secure their own multi-product supply agreements with IDNs. But the FAC alleges nothing about the precise nature of the CEAs’ requirements or incentives, instead referring vaguely to “exclusive dealing” provisions, rebates conditioned on hitting purchase targets (“loyalty rebates”), and discounts for buying multiple separate products from Hill-Rom (“bundled discounts”).

Regardless of whether the FAC is challenging exclusive dealing arrangements, loyalty rebates, bundled discounts, or some combination of the three, it is legally deficient. Because all three practices are often procompetitive—with loyalty rebates and bundled discounts providing an immediate benefit to consumers in the form of lower prices—courts condemn them only when the factual prerequisites to anticompetitive harm are satisfied. For exclusive dealing, the challenged arrangements must foreclose rivals from a large enough proportion of available sales opportunities to hold them below “minimum efficient scale” (“MES”)—i.e., the output level at which all economies of scale (i.e., per-unit cost-savings that result simply from producing more units) are exhausted. Absent such “substantial foreclosure,” an exclusive dealing contract may disadvantage a competitor (by causing it to lose business) but does not injure competition itself (by rendering rivals less efficient and thus less formidable). Loyalty rebates harm competition only if they result in a below-cost price that could drive an equally efficient, but less deep-pocketed, rival from the market. Bundled discounts can cause competitive harm only if they result in a below-cost price for the bundle or include products that the discounter’s rivals do not produce so that they could not match the entire dollar amount of the bundled discount on their own bundles.

Because the FAC does not allege substantial foreclosure that would hold Hill-Rom’s rivals below MES, below-cost pricing on any of Hill-Rom’s products, or a lack of product diversification on the part of Hill-Rom’s rivals so that they could not offer competitive bundled discounts, it does not plead any harm to competition itself. To prevent the Third Circuit from becoming a mecca for antitrust strike suits, this Court should reject plaintiffs’ attempt to saddle defendants with burdensome discovery obligations on the basis of threadbare allegations that do not aver competitive harm. It should affirm the district court’s order dismissing plaintiffs’ complaint with prejudice.

ARGUMENT

I.          Plaintiffs Have Not Alleged Anticompetitive Exclusive Dealing

a.    Exclusive Dealing Is Usually Procompetitive and Injures Market Competition Only In a Narrow Set of Circumstances.

“Exclusive dealing” refers to an arrangement under which two parties agree to do business exclusively with one another for a period of time. Such contracts are often “of economic advantage to buyers as well as to sellers, and thus indirectly of advantage to the consuming public.” Standard Oil Co v. United States, 337 U.S. 293, 306 (1949). They are ubiquitous, and prohibited only if “competition has been foreclosed in a substantial share of the line of commerce affected.” Id. at 314. Standard Oil held that the government could challenge exclusive contracts if their effect “may be to substantially lessen competition.” Id. at 302. But the Court later held that private parties must do more. They must be able to show that “the contract will foreclose competition in a substantial share of the line of commerce affected” based on “facts peculiar to the case.” Tampa Elec. Co. v. Nashville Coal Co., 365 U.S. 320, 327 (1961).

This test reflects the prevalence of exclusive dealing in highly competitive markets where such arrangements strengthen competition and increase output. One way they do so is by eliminating “interbrand free riding.” To win sales, producers seek to make their offerings more attractive, often by investing in their distributors. A gasoline manufacturer, for example, may boost sales by providing retailers with attractive signage, good lighting, and free customer items (e.g., roadmaps). If those retailers also carried gasoline from a rival that made no comparable investments (and thus faced lower costs and could charge lower wholesale prices), some of the investing producer’s gains would accrue to that rival. By ensuring that distributor investments do not benefit competitors, exclusive dealing can encourage output-enhancing, consumer-friendly investments. See generally Howard P. Marvel, Exclusive Dealing, 25 J. L. & Econ. 1, 6–11 (1982); Herbert Hovenkamp, Federal Antitrust Policy: The Law of Competition and Its Practice 440 (3d ed. 2005).

Exclusive dealing may also benefit consumers by intensifying competition for distribution. To secure exclusivity and the resulting increase in sales, producers often reduce wholesale prices. Retail competition then tends to pass those savings on to consumers as lower retail prices, which can outweigh any loss from reduced product variety and produce net consumer benefits. See generally Benjamin Klein & Kevin M. Murphy, Exclusive Dealing Intensifies Competition for Distribution, 75 Antitrust L. J. 433 (2008).

Even early enforcement decisions like Standard Oil recognized that exclusive dealing can further enhance output by “assur[ing] supply, afford[ing] protection against rises in price, enabl[ing] long-term planning… and obviat[ing] the expense and risk of storage.” Standard Oil, 337 U.S. at 306. A gasoline retailer, for instance, may want adequate inventory for peak summer demand. Committing in advance to a fixed quantity risks either surplus or shortage. A requirements contract—under which the retailer agrees to buy all its needs from one supplier in exchange for guaranteed supply—may minimize those risks. See id.

On the producer side, exclusive dealing reduces uncertainty by securing a more “predictable market.” Id. at 306-07.  By improving demand forecasts, such arrangements can encourage producers to expand capacity. See generally Hovenkamp, supra, at 440.

Because of these benefits, exclusive dealing can be anticompetitive only when they substantially foreclose competition on metrics relevant to the line of commerce and facts of a particular industry. Tampa, 365 U.S. at 327. Most industries exhibit economies of scale, meaning that average costs decline as output rises—up to a point. Beyond that point, diminishing returns cause average costs to increase. The lowest output level at which scale economies are exhausted is the industry’s MES. See Robert S. Pindyck & Daniel S. Rubinfeld, Microeconomics 237 (6th ed. 2008); Hal R. Varian, Intermediate Economics 428 (1987). To compete most effectively, firms must reach that level of output.

In certain cases exclusive dealing by a dominant rival can prevent them from doing so. Because expansion requires access to buyers, a dominant firm can restrict rivals’ growth by locking up distribution outlets. If foreclosure is sufficiently substantial, rivals may be unable to reach MES. See generally Joshua D. Wright, Moving Beyond Naïve Foreclosure Analysis, 19 Geo. Mason L. Rev. 1163, 1166–71 (2012).The economic results—reduced output and higher prices—can injure competition, not just competitors, where three conditions are present.

First, foreclosure must be substantial enough to push rivals below MES. Id. at 1166. Second, rivals must lack practical alternatives, such as competing for their own exclusive or direct distribution contracts. Third, barriers to entry into the producer’s market must be so significant that new firms cannot enter in response to supracompetitive pricing.

Given the many procompetitive benefits of exclusive dealing it is unsurprising that empirical studies generally find that these conditions are rarely satisfied, and that exclusive dealing enhances rather than reduces competition. See Jan B. Heide et. al., Exclusive Dealing and Business Efficiency, 41 J. L. & Econ. 387 (1998) (finding that “firms are more likely to use exclusive dealing when there is a potential that other manufacturers can free ride on the services they provide” and that “when manufacturers are concerned about the costs that exclusive dealing imposes on end customers, such arrangements are less likely”); Tim R. Sass, The Competitive Effects of Exclusive Dealing, 23 Int’l J. Indus. Org. 203 (2005) (concluding that exclusive dealing in the beer market increases market output); James C. Cooper et. al., Vertical Antitrust Policy as a Problem of Inference, 23 Int’l J. Indus. Org. 639, 658 (2005) (observing that although “some studies find evidence consistent with both pro- and anticompetitive effects . . . virtually no studies claim to have identified instances where vertical practices were likely to have harmed competition”); Francine Lafontaine & Margaret Slade, Exclusive Contracts and Vertical Restraints, in Handbook of Antitrust Economics 391, 409 (2008) (“[I]t appears that when manufacturers choose to impose restraints, not only do they make themselves better off but they also typically allow consumers to benefit from higher quality products and better service provision”); Daniel O’Brien, The Antitrust Treatment of Vertical Restraints, in The Pros and Cons of Vertical Restraints 40, 76 (2008) (observing that “with few exceptions, the literature does not support the view that [vertical restraints] are used for anticompetitive reasons”).

b.    Reflecting Economic Learning, Supreme Court Precedent Requires Substantial Foreclosure as a Necessary, Though Insufficient, Condition for Exclusive Dealing Liability.

Because (1) procompetitive uses of exclusive dealing are quite common, (2) anticompetitive harm from exclusive dealing can occur only under rare conditions, and (3) most instances of exclusive dealing enhance market output, courts impose a “qualitative foreclosure” test for assessing the legality of such arrangements. They typically start by assessing the percentage of sales opportunities in the relevant geographic and product market the challenged deal has foreclosed to the defendant’s rivals. Tampa, 365 U.S. at 327-29. But the analysis is not merely quantitative. See Jonathan M. Jacobson, Exclusive Dealing, “Foreclosure,” and Consumer Harm, 70 ANTITRUST L.J. 311, 322 (2002) (explaining why governing standard is qualitative foreclosure). As Tampa explains:

“To determine substantiality [of market foreclosure] in a given case, it is necessary to weigh the probable effect of the contract on the relevant area of effective competition, taking into account the relative strength of the parties, the proportionate volume of commerce involved in relation to the total volume of commerce in the relevant market area, and the probable immediate and future effects which preemption of that share of the market might have on effective competition therein.”

Tampa Electric, 365 U.S. at 329 (emphasis added).[2]

Tampa’s effects-based, qualitative foreclosure approach properly reflects economic insights about exclusive dealing’s ability to enhance market output even when it forecloses some sales opportunities for a defendant’s rivals. The Court’s emphasis on the competitive effects of foreclosure requires an assessment of whether the challenged arrangement occasioned an actual change in market output—i.e., a significant change in the total number of units sold, their quality, or the prices charged. If the evidence on that question is indeterminate, courts should then consider:

  • what is minimum efficient scale in the industry at issue, and whether the foreclosure occasioned by the arrangement threatens to drive or hold a rival below that level of output;
  • the likelihood that the challenged arrangement creates procompetitive benefits by reducing interbrand free-riding, intensifying competition for distribution, or cutting costs or otherwise enhancing output by guaranteeing demand for producers or supply for distributors; and
  • barriers to entering the relevant markets.

To state a claim for anticompetitive exclusive dealing, a plaintiff must plead the above or other facts that, taken as true, show that the challenged arrangements actually caused market foreclosure substantial enough to hold the defendants’ rivals below MES or otherwise prevent them from continuing to supply output to the relevant markets.

c.     Plaintiffs Have Not Alleged the Factual Prerequisites to Anticompetitive Harm from Exclusive Dealing.

Given that economically informed pleading requirement, plaintiffs’ FAC is deficient. A well pled exclusive dealing complaint should allege that the challenged agreements would result in a degree of market foreclosure sufficient to hold the defendants’ rivals below MES and that they have consequently been forced out of the market for the output consumers want (here, hospital beds). Yet the FAC says nothing about MES. It provides a conclusory allegation that competitors were deprived of scale but does not allege that the challenged agreements have driven those competitors below MES, much less in ways that have substantially foreclosed them from continuing to offer competitive output. Instead, it admits that these competitors have continued to supply beds in the decade since the challenged agreements were first used.

For this and other reasons the district court noted, the “Plaintiff does not plead facts regarding the necessary degree of foreclosure.” Mem. Op. at 16. Plaintiff says the allegedly exclusive contracts (CEAs) substantially foreclose competition, but “Plaintiff does not attach, quote, or otherwise reference anything from the CEA” to support this conclusion. Id. at 19. That is particularly true because the FAC “is noticeably absent of any allegation that Plaintiff itself has entered into a CEA with Defendants.” Id. at n.2. This point alone makes this case fundamentally different from Tampa and Standard Oil. And the FAC’s failure to allege how CEAs deprived other hospitals of the opportunity to choose among competing suppliers for each contract cycle makes this case fundamentally different from LePage’s and all the other well-pled exclusive dealing cases Plaintiff cites. Indeed, the FAC here admits that hospitals continue to have the same choice of suppliers they have always had, and that those suppliers compete for exclusive contract cycles because they are efficient for hospitals given the installation and training costs associated with the line of commerce (smart beds). These allegations confirm that this case does not allege the actual economic and anticompetitive effects the law requires to state an antitrust claim for exclusive dealing.

The district court correctly found these and other pleading defects fatal to this case. “The share of the market that has allegedly been foreclosed is a major component of a finding of substantial foreclosure.” Mem. Op. at 16. And even where substantial foreclosure is adequately pled, a plaintiff must relate it to consumer harm in the form of reduced output or higher prices caused by the allegedly unlawful terms of the exclusive arrangement. The FAC does neither. It alleges that the deals caused price inflation, but it does not cite any contract or market prices at all, much less tie them to any exclusivity provisions. Instead, plaintiff admits it was not forced to sign any exclusive deal and admits that the other hospitals it purports to represent still have the same choice of bed suppliers they had before the exclusive dealing began over a decade ago. The FAC thus fails to plead any of the economic facts required to challenge exclusive deals under the Supreme Court cases above.

d.    Plaintiffs’ Allegations Suggest Procompetitive Rationales for the Alleged Exclusive Dealing.

The pleading failures above are not surprising, because the FAC describes economic reasons for the allegedly exclusive CEAs that would make them procompetitive for the line of commerce and industry at issue. As discussed above, it is widely recognized that exclusive dealing agreements can provide for supply stability and can mitigate the costs of uncertainty across market fluctuations, to the extent that the agreements increase a seller’s incentive to meet a customer’s requirements fully, and on a reliable basis. See Jacobson, Exclusive Dealing, supra, at 359. The FAC itself describes such conditions that would benefit from exclusive agreements. For example, it cites high, rising, and volatile input costs: “To manufacture hospital beds, new entrants need to purchase commodities such as aluminum and steel that are subject to significant volatility. Similarly, hospital bed manufacturing increasingly requires chips and sensors, which have been subject to shortages that have led to rising prices throughout the country.” FAC at 20-21. The FAC characterizes these uncertainties as entry barriers, but uncertainty about the price and availability of key production inputs is a challenge—and a cost—for any incumbent manufacturer of the relevant hospital beds. And “episodic rather than smooth demand” for hospital beds, FAC ¶ 30, confounds planning for the consumers of hospital beds—hospitals, hospital systems, and other health care providers—as well as producers. Both upstream and downstream exclusive dealing agreements can mitigate these costs in ways beneficial to the manufacturers and the IDNs, GPOs, and health care providers with whom they contract. That is a straightforward—and legitimate—business rationale for both parties to an exclusive dealing contract regarding the supply of hospital beds.

Such inconsistencies on both the supply side and the demand side can exacerbate stock inconsistencies as well; and it is understood that exclusive dealing arrangements can reduce stock inconsistencies associated with multiple product lines and myriad SKUs. That is, streamlined stocks and supply chains may be a significant advantage to hospitals, even as a wide range of product choices may be desirable at the time of contracting. See id. at 357 (citing Joyce Beverages, Inc. v. Royal Crown Cola Co., 555 F. Supp. 271, 276 (S.D.N.Y. 1983)). Moreover, the FAC acknowledges that IDNs, such as Tower Health, “naturally prefer to standardize,” their agreements, and that the “promise of future low prices” encourages IDNs (not manufacturers) “to force its individual hospitals to stick to the agreement.” Appx94-95, 118, 120 ¶¶ 70, 178, 181. Again, these are demand-side pressures on manufacturers, such as Hil-Rom, to enter into exclusive arrangements with IDNs. They do not suggest that such agreements result from anticompetitive exploitation of manufacturer market power rather than efficient, procompetitive arrangements.

The FAC also alleges that the importance of product support in hospital bed markets should be seen as a barrier to entry. For example, “U.S. hospital customers demand that suppliers have a local sales and service organization in order to provide dedicated sales support, as well as in-service training, education, and clinical support specific to the U.S. health care industry.” FAC at ¶ 24. Perhaps, but the demand for such services is a demand-side pressures on manufacturers, such as Hil-Rom, Stryker, and Linet, as is the risk that competitors might free-ride on a manufacturer’s investments in such support services, Jacobson, Exclusive Dealing, supra, at 312. Exclusive dealing agreements can mitigate the risk of inter-brand free riding and thus enhance incentives for the investments required to meet such demands. Id.

II.          Plaintiffs Have Not Stated a Claim Based on Hill-Rom’s Agreements to Provide Discounts for Meeting Purchase Targets.

While plaintiffs focus primarily on Hill-Rom’s alleged exclusive dealing agreements (without identifying the agreements’ precise terms), they also suggest that Hill-Rom has used conditional price cuts to exclude its rivals, impairing market competition. The Complaint alleges that Hill-Rom’s CEAs “ensur[e] that an IDN cannot achieve its maximum rebate unless the hospitals in the system purchase effectively all of their requirements for the Relevant Products from Hill-Rom.” Cmplt. ¶ 172 (emphasis added). It also refers to purchase thresholds of 80-90% of a hospital’s requirements. Id. at ¶ 160. The Complaint thus suggests (again, with no specificity) that Hill-Rom is using “loyalty rebates”—price cuts conditioned upon meeting purchase targets on individual products—to foreclose its rivals from sales opportunities. Elsewhere, the Complaint alleges that Hill-Rom offers IDNs “bundled discounts”—discounts conditioned on buying a package of different products—to exclude less diversified rivals.[3]

Although both loyalty rebates and bundled discounts may be anticompetitive in certain circumstances, they are not inevitably so. And they always entail immediate consumer benefit in the form of lower prices. To ensure that antitrust law does not chill consumer-friendly discounting without justification, courts wisely limit antitrust liability based on loyalty rebates and bundled discounts to situations in which the factual prerequisites to anticompetitive harm exist. Because plaintiffs have not alleged such factual prerequisites here, they have failed to state an antitrust claim on the basis of either loyalty rebates or bundled discounts.

a.    Plaintiffs Have Not Alleged the Below-Cost Pricing Required to Establish Actionable Loyalty Rebates.

For single-product loyalty rebates—e.g., “we will provide a 20% rebate on all your purchases of standard hospital beds if you purchase at least 80% of your standard bed requirements from us”—there can be no harm to competition unless the discounted price is below the discounter’s cost. A loyalty rebate resulting in a below-cost price may harm competition by winning business from, and perhaps driving from the market, a rival that is as efficient as the discounter but does not have the reserves required to endure losses from below-cost pricing. But if the loyalty rebate results in an above-cost price, any equally efficient rival could match it by cutting its profit margin while still charging a sustainable price. See Phillip E. Areeda & Herbert Hovenkamp, Antitrust Law 768 (3d ed. 2008) (“For single-item discounts, no matter how measured or aggregated, exclusion of an equally efficient rival seems implausible, provided that the fully discounted price remains above the seller’s cost.”). Any rival excluded by an above-cost loyalty rebate, then, would be either less efficient than the discounter or less willing to lower its price to a sustainable, though less profitable, level. Winning business from a less efficient or less aggressive rival by enhancing the benefits offered to consumers is hardly anticompetitive; it is the essence of price competition. Matsushita Elec. Industrial Co. v. Zenith Radio Corp., 475 U.S. 574, 594 (1986) (“[C]utting prices in order to increase business often is the very essence of competition.”).

The Supreme Court has thus limited antitrust liability for simple price cuts to those that result in below-cost prices that an equally efficient rival could not sustainably match. Brooke Group Ltd. v. Brown & Williamson Tobacco Corp., 509 U.S. 209, 222 (1993) (“[A] plaintiff seeking to establish competitive injury resulting from a rival’s low prices must prove that the prices complained of are below an appropriate measure of its rival’s costs.”); Atlantic Richfield Co. v. USA Petroleum Co., 495 U.S. 328, 340 (1990) (“Low prices benefit consumers regardless of how those prices are set, and so long as they are above predatory levels, they do not threaten competition.”). The Circuit Courts—including this Court—have extended that holding to rebates conditioned on meeting single-product purchase targets. ZF Meritor, LLC v. Eaton Corp., 696 F.3d 254, 274 n. 11 (3d Cir. 2012) (“[W]e join our sister circuits in holding that the price-cost test applies to market share or volume rebates offered by suppliers in a single-product market.”) (citing NicSand, Inc. v. 3M Co., 507 F.3d 442, 452 (6th Cir. 2007); Concord Boat Corp. v. Brunswick Corp., 207 F.3d 1039, 1061 (8th Cir. 2000); Barry Wright Corp. v. ITT Grinnell Corp., 724 F.2d 227, 236 (1st Cir. 1983)).

Although plaintiffs’ complaint does appear to allege some sort of loyalty rebate (albeit with no specificity), it never alleges that the post-rebate price on any product was below Hill-Rom’s cost. Accordingly, the complaint does not state an antitrust claim arising from loyalty rebates.

b.    Plaintiffs Have Not Alleged Actionable Bundled Discounts Because They Have Not Identified Less Diversified Rivals that Are Plausibly Excluded By Hill-Rom’s Discount Arrangements.

While below-cost pricing is not a prerequisite to anticompetitive harm from a bundled discount, no such harm can result when (1) the discounted bundle price is non-predatory in that it exceeds the aggregate cost of the items in the bundle (i.e., the discount is an “above-cost bundled discount”), and (2) the discounter’s rivals can offer all the products in the discounted bundle and can thus, if equally efficient, match the discounted price without pricing below cost. Because plaintiffs have not alleged either that Hill-Rom’s bundled discounts resulted in below-cost pricing or that its identified rivals could not replicate its bundle, plaintiffs have failed to state an antitrust claim based on Hill-Rom’s bundled discounts. Indeed, plaintiffs have not plead any facts about the product bundle that Hil-Rom is alleged to have offered or any other product bundle in the industry.

Admittedly, an above-cost bundled discount may exclude an equally efficient, aggressive rival in one line of commerce if the rival cannot offer a comparable bundle, and must therefore price its more limited offerings below cost to match the discount on the bundle. That is the situation the LePage’s plaintiff pled with supporting facts about the bundled items and prices at issue, but this case does not plead at all. Instead, the FAC admits the challenged bundles do not result in below cost pricing on the defendants’ beds (the relevant lines of commerce here). Nor does it plead any facts showing that the defendants’ bundles require rivals to price their beds below cost because they cannot offer comparable bundled discounts.

Nor does the FAC plead the practical (non-price) foreclosure the Third Circuit addressed in rejecting a safe harbor for above-cost bundled discounts in LePage’s Inc. v. 3M, 324 F.3d 141 (3rd Cir. 2003) (en banc). The plaintiff in that case, LePage’s, produced private label transparent tape. It complained of bundled discounts offered by 3M, which produced branded “Scotch” tape, private label transparent tape, and a number of other products. 3M offered retailers rebate programs conditioned upon meeting purchase targets across multiple 3M lines of commerce beyond transparent tape. Id. at 154. LePage’s alleged that 3M’s bundled discounts were anticompetitive because they induced retailers to eliminate LePage’s as a supplier so that they could meet 3M’s purchase target for private label tape and thereby qualify for rebates on purchases from a number of 3M product lines. Id. at 160-61. A jury found that LePage’s had established illegal monopolization, but a divided panel of this Court reversed on the ground that LePage’s “did not even attempt to show that it could not compete by calculating the discount that it would have had to provide in order to match the discounts offered by 3M through its bundled rebates.” LePage’s Inc. v. 3M, 2002 WL 46961, at *9 (3rd Cir. Jan. 14, 2002). On rehearing en banc, this Court reinstated the jury verdict in favor of LePage’s on grounds the FAC does not plead here. LePage’s, 324 F.3d at 164-66.

The en banc Court first emphasized that the principal anticompetitive danger of bundled discounts is that they can disadvantage competitors that sell narrower product lines and therefore could only compete by offering discounts so deep they cannot stay in the marketplace. Id. at 155. Once LePage’s showed that the bundle 3M’s customers had to buy to secure the discounts included product lines that LePage’s could not offer and that this fact made it difficult for LePage’s to compete with 3M, the burden shifted to 3M to prove that its bundled discounts were “justified” by cost savings of some sort. Id. at 163-64. Because 3M failed to prove that selling its products in a bundled fashion reduced cost by an amount equal to or exceeding the discount, its bundled discounts were deemed unjustified and thus exclusionary. Id. at 164. LePage’s thus holds that (1) bundled discounts may be exclusionary if the discounter is bundling product lines its rivals do not produce and foreclosing those rivals from competing, but (2) the presumption may be rebutted if the discounter proves a “business reasons justification” for the bundled discounts, meaning that the bundling saves costs in excess of the total discount.

LePage’s has been limited to its facts in this circuit and generated a great deal of critical commentary in other circuits and among antitrust scholars. See, e.g., In re Epi Pen, 44 F.4th 959, 991-1000 (10th Cir. 2022); Collins Inkjet Corp. v. Eastman Kodak Co., 781 F.3d 264, 273-74 (6th Cir. 2015); Cascade Health Sols. v. PeaceHealth, 515 F.3d 883 (9th Cir. 2009); FTC v. Church & Dwight Co., Inc., 665 F.3d 1312, 1316–17 (D.C. Cir. 2011);[4] Thomas A. Lambert, Evaluating Bundled Discounts, 89 Minn. L. Rev. 1688, 1722-26 (2005); Daniel L. Rubinfeld, 3M’s Bundled Rebates: An Economic Perspective, 72 U. Chi. L. Rev. 243, 254–56, 262–64 (2005); Daniel A. Crane, Multiproduct Discounting: A Myth of Non-Price Predation, 72 U. Chi. L. Rev. 27 (2005); Gary P. Zanfagna, LePage’s v. 3M: A Reality Check, Antitrust Source 1 (Nov. 2004) (“The Third Circuit en banc decision in LePage’s is a giant step backwards in Section 2 jurisprudence.”). A primary criticism is that, by eschewing consideration of the relative efficiency of a complaining rival and focusing solely on product line breadth, it can enable inefficient but less diversified competitors to block consumer-friendly discounts or even recover treble damages based upon them thus punishing suppliers who offer customers the best prices and most varied or innovative products. Indeed, one of the expert economists hired by LePage’s admitted that LePage’s—which walked away with more than $68 million in damages—was a less efficient producer of transparent tape than 3M. LePage’s, 324 F.3d at 177 (Greenberg, J., dissenting). Given that LePage’s may prop up less efficient rivals at the expense of consumers, other courts have declined to follow it. See, e.g., Cascade, 515 F.3d at 899-900 (9th Cir. 2008); see also EpiPen, Collins, and Church, supra.

Even under LePage’s, however, the plaintiffs here have not alleged actionable bundled discounts. The LePage’s Court emphasized that “[t]he principal anticompetitive effect of bundled rebates as offered by 3M is that when offered by a monopolist they may foreclose portions of the market to a potential competitor who does not manufacture an equally diverse group of products and who therefore cannot make a comparable offer.” Id. at 155 (emphasis added). If a bundled discount does not result in bundled price that is below the aggregate cost of the items in a bundle (a situation that might trigger liability for predatory pricing under Brooke Group), then it can harm competition only if it excludes a less diversified rival. A rival that produces all the bundled product lines or some comparable array of products could match any above-cost bundled discount if it were as efficient as the discounter, and antitrust law should not intervene to protect less efficient rivals or those that are equally efficient but unwilling to reduce their profit margin to win business from discounters. For this reason, this Court has restricted liability under LePage’s to above-cost bundled discounts that exclude less diversified rivals where plaintiffs plead (and ultimately prove) that they are substantially foreclosed from competition by exclusivity terms with offsetting efficiencies. ZF Meritor, LLC v. Eaton Corp., 696 F.3d 254, 274 n. 11 (“The reasoning of LePage’s is limited to cases in which a single-product producer is excluded through a bundled rebate program offered by a producer of multiple products, which conditions the rebates on purchases across multiple different product lines.”). Where, as here, the defendant’s rivals produce all of the relevant lines of commerce, see Cmplt. ¶¶ 36, 52, 68 (alleging that defendant Hill-Rom’s chief rivals produce the standard, ICU, and birthing beds at issue in this case), there can be no liability for bundled discounting absent facts that show the defendant has bundled the relevant product lines with other lines for which rivals have no comparable offerings and thus can only compete by offering unsustainable below-cost prices on the relevant products. The FAC does not allege any such facts here. It alleges no prices or bundle components at all. It also alleges no facts about what bundles or discounts Hill-Rom offers and how they compare to rival bundles and discounts. Nor does it allege any facts showing that Hill-Rom’s bundles involve discounts that rival bed makers can match only by pricing their beds below-cost. Instead, the FAC admits that rivals continue to offer all relevant bed product lines to customers now, and that these rivals include Stryker—one of the largest medical suppliers in the world with product lines far beyond what Hill-Rom offers. See Stryker Corp., Annual Report (Form 10-K), at 1 (Feb. 11, 2026). The district court was therefore correct in concluding that “this set of facts does not fit into the limited scope of the [Court’s] opinion in LePage’s.” Mem. Op. at 18.

Amici supporting the plaintiffs contend otherwise. They read ZF Meritor as instructing that an exclusionary effect on a less diversified rival is a sufficient, not a necessary, condition for liability under LePage’s. Brief of Amicus Curiae American Antitrust Institute in Support of Appellant (“AAI Brief”) at 9 n. 4 (“ZF Meritor may have been suggesting that a single-product rival is sufficient to impose liability under LePage’s, but it was not suggesting that it is necessary.”). They also maintain that an excluded rival need not be a single-product producer in order to impose liability for above-cost bundled discounting because LePage’s itself produced multiple products, as did the plaintiff in SmithKline Corp. v. Eli Lilly & Co., 575 F.2d 1056 (3rd Cir. 1978), another Third Circuit decision condemning bundled discounts. AAI Brief at 9, n. 4; Brief of Committee to Support the Antitrust Laws as Amicus Curiae in Support of Plaintiff-Appellant at 20-21. Amici thus imply that this Court should allow the imposition of liability for above-cost bundled discounts even when the discounter’s rivals are equally diversified and could, if equally efficient, match the bundled discounts at issue.

Amici are unpersuasive. The relevant language of ZF Meritor—“The reasoning of LePage’s is limited to cases in which a single-product producer is excluded through a bundled rebate program offered by a producer of multiple products, which conditions the rebates on purchases across multiple different product lines,” ZF Meritor, 696 F.3d at 274 n. 11 (emphasis added)—is plainly stating a necessary, not sufficient, condition for liability under LePage’s. Moreover, the LePage’s Court itself was clear that the anticompetitive effect of an above-cost bundled discount is its potential to exclude less diversified rivals that cannot, even if they are as efficient as the discounter in producing the products they make, match the total dollar value of the discount on their narrower product line. LePage’s, 324 F.3d at 141 (“The principal anticompetitive effect of bundled rebates … is that when offered by a monopolist they may foreclose portions of the market to a potential competitor who does not manufacture an equally diverse group of products and who therefore cannot make a comparable offer.”) (emphasis added). Critically, both the LePage’s and SmithKline plaintiffs were far less-diversified than their bundled discounting rival, see id. at 144, 157; SmithKline, 575 F.2d at 1059, and would thus have had to match the entire dollar volume of its discount on their narrower line of products.[5] Hill-Rom’s rivals, by contrast, produce the same types of hospital beds as Hill-Rom—standard, ICU, and birthing—and thus could, if equally efficient, match any above-cost discount on bundles of beds. The district court was therefore correct to conclude that LePage’s is inapposite.[6]

Amici’s apparent position—that a plaintiff complaining of a bundled discount may state an antitrust claim without identifying a less diversified rival and explaining why it cannot match the discount at issue—would empower antitrust plaintiffs to subject defendants to burdensome discovery obligations by simply stating that the defendant had offered a bundled discount. After all, there will almost always be some rival out there that produces some, but not all, items in the bundle. This Court should decline plaintiffs’ and their amici’s invitation to transform the already pro-plaintiff LePage’s decision into an open invitation to file strike suits.

CONCLUSION

The District Court’s judgment should be affirmed.

[1] No counsel for any party authored this brief in whole or in part. Apart from amici curiae, no person contributed money intended to fund the brief’s preparation and submission. The parties consented to the filing of this brief.

[2] This language from Tampa Electric, which assessed liability under Section 3 of the Clayton Act, 15 U.S.C. § 14, undermines the bizarre claim of amicus Open Markets Institute that “the Tampa Electric decision is not an invitation to lower courts to apply the rule of reason.” Brief of Open Markets Institute as Amicus Curiae in Support of Plaintffs-Appellants at 15. In directing courts to assess “the probable effect” of a challenged exclusive dealing agreement in light of a number of context-specific factors, Tampa Electric explicitly prescribed a rule of reason analysis.

[3] See Cmplt. ¶ 139 (“The CEAs were therefore designed to bundle and link together all of the purchasing decisions by hospitals in numerous distinct product markets … into a single overarching agreement with a collective rebate.”); id. at ¶ 173 (“The CEAs thus ensure that it is impossible for any competitor in the Relevant Markets which does not manufacture a similarly broad line of products to demonstrate how offered savings could offset the rebate potential on other products with Hill-Rom.”).

[4] Even in Church, which was a government enforcement case, the D.C. Circuit stressed that LePage’s “has been roundly criticized.” Church, 665 F.3d at 1316–17 (citing Antitrust Modernization Comm’n, Report and Recommendations 94 (2007) (“The lack of clear standards regarding bundling, as reflected in LePage’s v. 3M, may discourage conduct that is procompetitive or competitively neutral and thus may actually harm consumer welfare”); Bruce H. Kobayashi, The Law and Economics of Predatory Pricing, in Antitrust Law and Economics 116, 148 (Keith N. Hylton ed., 2009) (“The potential for liability will result in [firms with sufficient market power and multiple product lines] being deterred from using bundling that would have led to reduced prices for consumers and higher welfare”); Richard A. Epstein, Monopoly Dominance or Level Playing Field? The New Antitrust Paradox, 72 U. Chi. L.Rev. 49, 71 (2005) (“highly unlikely that 3M would tailor practices that cover six of its departments solely because of the effects that it would have on” the one product market in which it competed with LePage’s).

[5] The ZF Meritor Court’s reference to a “single-product producer” in its limitation of LePage’s, see ZF Meritor, 696 F.3d at 274 n. 11, is just case-specific shorthand for the actual “reasoning of LePage’s,” which facially applies only to less diversified (if not single-product) rivals.

[6] To the extent plaintiffs complain of bundled discounts involving products besides hospital beds, their complaint is deficient because it does not identify what the products are and thus why equally efficient competitors could not match the discounts across them.

Amicus Brief

ICLE Highlights: News & Activites

L&E Fellows

ICLE welcomed its 2025-2026 Law & Economics Fellows Program cohort in September!

Nicholas Almendares
Indiana University Bloomington Maurer School of Law

Rimvydas Baltaduonis
Stanford University

Sharmin Chougule
University of Camerino

Charles Delmotte
Michigan State University

Kevin Douglas
Michigan State University

Brian Downing
University of Mississippi School of Law

Kevin Frazier
University of Texas at Austin School of Law

Jacob Hall
Ohio State University

Colin Harris
St. Olaf College

Adi Leibovitch
University of Chicago Law School

Sergei Sazanov
New York University School of Law

Daniel Schaffa
University of Richmond School of Law

Gabriel Weil
Touro Law Center

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ICLE Comments Re: Modernizing Spectrum Sharing for Satellite Broadband

I. Introduction

We thank the Federal Communications Commission (FCC or “the Commission”) for the opportunity to comment on this notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM), “Modernizing Spectrum Sharing for Satellite Broadband.”[1] The NPRM’s central proposal is to conduct a comprehensive review and modernization of the spectrum-sharing regime for non-geostationary (NGSO) and geostationary (GSO) satellite systems operating in the 10.7-12.7 GHz, 17.3-18.6 GHz, and 19.7-20.2 GHz frequency bands. The Commission’s overarching objectives are clear: to ensure “highly efficient and effective use of the shared spectrum,”[2] to support “a more competitive market for satellite broadband,”[3] and to “uncap[] the potential of satellite constellations.”[4]

A primary focus of this review is the set of equivalent power-flux density (EPFD) limits, which the NPRM identifies as potentially the “the single most constraining regulatory requirement on NGSO satellite systems.”[5] These limits—adopted by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in 2000 and subsequently incorporated into FCC rules—were designed to protect GSO networks from harmful interference from NGSO systems.[6] The NPRM questions whether these limits—based on technological assumptions from the 1990s—remain appropriate, given the evolution of both NGSO and GSO technologies. The document notes claim the current rules may be predicated on “flawed and outdated assumptions” that lead to “inefficient spectrum sharing.”[7]

The International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research center whose core mission is to promote the application of law & economics methodologies to inform public-policy discussion. Our work focuses on developing intellectually rigorous, data-driven analyses to foster efficient policy solutions that enhance consumer welfare and global economic growth. In our comments to the FCC in the “Delete, Delete, Delete” proceeding, we recommended:

A top-to-bottom review of FCC space and satellite policies is warranted to identify and eliminate regulatory asymmetries disadvantaging U.S.-licensed providers. Disparate treatment—such as more onerous licensing timelines, excessive equipment pre-certification requirements, and redundant importation rules—can generate substantial uncertainty and delays. These regulatory burdens impose direct costs on companies and broader costs on U.S. consumers and national interests—deterring innovation, discouraging capital investment, and reducing America’s global market share.

A particularly urgent area for reform concerns the equivalent power flux-density (EPFD) limits that govern the signal strength permitted for non-geostationary (NGSO) satellite transmissions. These limits—established by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in the late 1990s—were designed to prevent harmful interference with geostationary (GSO) satellites, but they reflect technological assumptions from a much earlier era. Modern NGSO systems—equipped with steerable beams, advanced signal processing, and adaptive interference mitigation—are artificially constrained by these outdated rules. As a result, current EPFD limits are a tremendous regulatory restriction on the ability of NGSO systems to serve consumers efficiently and cost-effectively.

The FCC has already recognized this issue by initiating an NPRM (SB Docket No. 25-157) to study the NGSO-GSO sharing regime in the 10.7–12.7 GHz, 17.3–18.6 GHz, and 19.7–20.2 GHz bands. The Commission should exploit the existing NPRM process to fully evaluate modernized EPFD methodologies and accelerate a transition toward a more efficient and evidence-based spectrum-sharing framework that maintains GSO protections while enabling the full potential of NGSO constellations. Ensuring that NGSO providers can deliver affordable high-capacity broadband to unserved and underserved populations is a national imperative, and the FCC must not allow regulatory inertia to serve as a barrier to this goal.[8]

Applying a law & economics framework can inform the FCC’s review by focusing on how differing regulatory approaches affect spectrum efficiency, incentives for investment and innovation, transaction costs in sharing and coordination, and overall consumer welfare. Specifically, the current reliance on potentially outdated technical assumptions may lead to an inefficient allocation of spectrum by overly restricting NGSO operations, thereby limiting the provision of high-speed, low-latency broadband services. While existing rules were designed to protect GSO systems from harmful interference, modern NGSO technology and market demands suggest a need to reexamine the balance between protecting incumbents and enabling new services. The NPRM appropriately seeks a robust technical record to assess these issues, explicitly requesting comment on the costs and benefits of alternative sharing frameworks.

Economic analysis can provide valuable insights into the questions the NPRM raises, such as determining appropriate protection criteria for modern GSO systems that avoid economically costly overprotection, evaluating alternative methodologies (like throughput-based criteria for systems with adaptive coding and modulation (ACM)), and assessing how information-sharing requirements and compliance mechanisms affect transaction costs and incentives Thorough consideration of transitional measures—including potentially sunsetting protections based on outdated technologies—is also critical to avoid perpetuating inefficient entitlements.

Ultimately, a law & economics approach supports the FCC’s goal to ensure highly efficient and effective use of shared spectrum and to promote a more competitive market for satellite broadband. By analyzing the incentives created by regulatory rules and evaluating the costs and benefits of various sharing frameworks, the Commission can adopt rules that maximize the welfare benefits of this spectrum for American consumers and foster continued U.S. leadership in the space economy.

II. The Economic Foundation: Spectrum as a Scarce Resource and the Goal of Efficient Allocation

The radiofrequency spectrum is a finite and incredibly valuable resource, serving as the invisible infrastructure for modern communications from television broadcasting to high-speed internet. Regulatory bodies like the FCC aim to ensure this limited resource is used to maximize its overall social value—promoting efficiency, competition, and consumer welfare.[9] Historical regulatory frameworks, such as those established by the Communications Act of 1934, often reflect outdated technological distinctions that no longer align with current market realities.[10] Therefore, modernizing these frameworks to be technology-neutral is essential to unlock the full potential of communications markets and prevent U.S. firms from seeking more permissive foreign regulatory environments.

One of the primary challenges to managing shared spectrum is dealing with interference, which functions as a negative externality.[11] If operators were not compelled to avoid causing unacceptable interference, they would have an incentive to exploit shared spectrum to the fullest, potentially imposing significant costs on others and society at-large. This scenario mirrors the “tragedy of the commons,” in which a shared resource is depleted when individuals act in their own self-interest without clear boundaries.[12] Clear rules and defined property rights allow satellite operators to use spectrum resources effectively and constrain the overexploitation of these common resources. As the late economist Ronald Coase concluded, the goal of regulation should not be to eliminate all interference, but rather to maximize overall output by ensuring the benefits gained from any interference outweigh the harms it causes.[13]

In the satellite-communications sector, the EPFD limits established by the ITU serve as a primary regulatory mechanism to manage this potential for interference.[14] These limits define the amount of interference a GSO network must tolerate from any given NGSO system, as well as from all NGSO systems combined. By adhering to these limits, NGSO systems are considered to have fulfilled their obligation to prevent unacceptable interference with GSO networks. For decades, these EPFD limits have successfully allowed both GSO and NGSO operators to share radiofrequency spectrum, fostering the growth of fixed and mobile broadband and broadcast services globally.

There is, however, a growing consensus that, given significant technological advancements, the effectiveness and efficiency of current EPFD limits need to be reevaluated.[15] The existing rules, provisionally adopted in 1997 and formally in 2000, were developed based on 1990s technology and assumptions, such as a hypothetical 80-satellite system.[16] Modern NGSO constellations, which deploy at a rapid pace, bear little resemblance to these older theoretical systems.

For example, many NGSO and GSO links now use ACM technology, which improves spectrum-sharing capabilities significantly but was not fully considered in the original EPFD framework.[17] Critics argue that the outdated EPFD limits provide more protection than is needed for GSO networks to function.[18] They are therefore spectrally inefficient, unnecessarily constraining NGSO operations and their ability to provide high-speed, low-latency broadband.[19] These constraints can limit radiated power levels, reduce coverage through wide “avoidance angles,” restrict the number of simultaneous satellite beams, and impact coordination options, ultimately hindering the full potential of next-generation satellite systems.[20]

The FCC has recognized that these limits “significantly penalize[]” NGSOs[21] and “directly degrade the efficiency of spectrum use.”[22] While some, such as Viasat, argue that NGSO systems thrive under the current framework and that degrading the limits would impose high costs on GSO networks,[23] others, including Amazon and SpaceX, contend that revising these limits is urgently needed to promote innovation and competition.[24]

The FCC has acknowledged this debate with this NPRM, which seeks to take a “fresh look” at the decades-old spectrum-sharing regime in specific frequency bands and to develop a substantial technical record to ensure efficient spectrum use and a competitive market. This domestic review aims to allow American consumers and industries to benefit from modernized GSO/NGSO sharing as soon as possible, even as international discussions continue.

III. Economic Costs of Current Rules

The current EPFD limits established in the 1990s represent what the FCC has identified as the “single most constraining regulatory requirement” on modern NGSO-satellite systems. These constraints create substantial economic costs that manifest across multiple dimensions of satellite operations and broader market dynamics. The economic burden extends beyond direct compliance costs to encompass opportunity costs, efficiency losses, and reduced incentives for innovation, which together serve ultimately to harm consumer welfare and economic growth.

The current EPFD rules represent a classic example of regulatory failure. While the regulations may have been efficient at the time they were put in place, they have simply not kept pace with economic and technological developments. Over time, they have contributed to significant market distortions, creating deadweight losses that harm overall economic welfare. The current EPFD limits force NGSO systems to operate with artificially constrained power levels, reduced coverage areas, and limited satellite density. These constraints prevent mutually beneficial exchanges between satellite operators and consumers, representing a textbook case of regulatory-induced market failure.

A. Property Rights and the Coase Theorem

The current regulatory framework fails to establish clear and transferable property rights in spectrum use, creating the conditions for inefficient resource allocation. Coase’s seminal work on spectrum allocation demonstrates that, with well-defined property rights and low transaction costs, private parties can negotiate efficient solutions to interference problems.[25] As noted by Doug Brake, writing about terrestrial spectrum:

What we care about are markets driving efficient use of spectrum, not simply efficient allocation of spectrum in the abstract. The initial allocation of rights, however defined, has a profound effect on the structure of and architecture of a particular radio service.

However, the “theorem” formulation—low transaction costs plus well-defined rights equals efficient outcomes—clarifies the two general approaches for policymakers to attack negative externality problems. One can economize on transaction costs and/or clarify the definition of rights. Obviously, work in both areas is good, but there is no reason to think that one single rights definition or level of transaction costs that is ideal for all situations.[26]

By imposing rigid technical constraints that cannot be adjusted through market mechanisms, however, the current EPFD rules prevent negotiations that would lead to efficient solutions that balance interference protection with spectrum utilization. This represents a fundamental misalignment between regulatory structure and the principles of economic efficiency.

B. Opportunity Cost and Resource Misallocation

The current EPFD rules’ full cost is found not only in their direct effects on NGSO operations, but in the opportunity costs they generate—that is, the foregone benefits from more efficient spectrum use. When regulations force NGSO systems to operate inefficiently, they foreclose realization of consumer surplus that would result from more efficient provision of services.

Current EPFD limits force NGSO systems to operate with artificially constrained power levels, creating significant spectrum inefficiencies. Economic research by Harold Furchtgott-Roth demonstrates that these power limitations reduce spectral efficiency by substantial margins, with potential capacity increases of 74% to 180% in different frequency bands under updated rules.[27] These efficiency losses translate directly into higher costs per unit of capacity delivered to consumers, as operators must deploy more satellites and infrastructure to achieve the same service levels. The economic waste inherent in this inefficient spectrum use represents a classic case of regulatory-induced resource misallocation.

The coverage restrictions imposed by current EPFD rules create additional economic costs through reduced service availability and quality. NGSO operators must implement wide “avoidance angles” of the geostationary arc, which reduces system coverage and requires other satellites to compensate for gaps in service.[28] This operational constraint forces operators to maintain larger constellation sizes than would be economically optimal, increasing both capital expenditures and ongoing operational costs. The economic impact extends to consumers who receive degraded service quality or pay higher prices to compensate for these artificial constraints.

The current rules’ satellite-density limitations also impose significant infrastructure cost burdens on NGSO operators. The restrictions on the number of satellites that can simultaneously serve a particular location (Nco) directly limit system capacity and require operators to deploy more expensive solutions to meet demand.[29] Research indicates that one hypothetical NGSO system would require 462 satellites under current rules, compared to just 360 satellites under updated limits—a 28% reduction in required infrastructure.[30] These unnecessary infrastructure costs represent economic waste that ultimately increases consumer prices and reduces service accessibility.

The opportunity-cost framework reveals that current rules impose costs on society by preventing higher-valued uses of spectrum resources. Economic research on spectrum allocation demonstrates that administrative-allocation methods often fail to achieve the efficiency gains possible through market-based approaches. The current EPFD rules exemplify this problem by locking in allocations based on 1990s technology, rather than allowing market forces to determine optimal spectrum use.

C. Transaction Costs and Coordination Failures

Transaction costs are the expenses incurred in process of an economic exchange, including the costs of searching for information, bargaining, and enforcing agreements. With respect to spectrum management, these costs encompass the effort and resources spent on defining usage rights, monitoring compliance, and resolving disputes. The existing EPFD framework, despite its regulatory intent, generates such costs by forcing operators into inefficient practices and complex, often unproductive, interactions.[31]

A significant source of these transaction costs stems from the overprotection of GSO incumbents. As noted above, to comply with these overly restrictive EPFD limits, modern NGSO systems are compelled to operate inefficiently. This includes:

  • Limiting their radiated power levels (EIRP), which can degrade signal quality and consistent service;
  • Implementing wide “avoidance angles” around the geostationary arc, which force satellites to divert, thereby reducing overall system coverage and making valuable capacity unusable, even in areas where no harmful interference to GSO networks is likely; and
  • Restricting the number of satellites that can simultaneously serve a particular ground location (Nco).

The conditions for effective Coasean bargaining are not met in the satellite industry. Satellite licensees generally do not possess the “full property rights” that would encourage efficient transfers or broad negotiations (e.g., they cannot easily benefit from transferring licenses).[32] Furthermore, the sheer number of parties involved in global satellite operations creates prohibitively high transaction costs for direct negotiation.

Scores of systems—including commercial, government, and military operators—are licensed in the EPFD bands. The cost would be “extraordinarily high” for an NGSO system to negotiate EPFD limits with every GSO-satellite owner globally.[33] The absence of widespread, successful negotiations for NGSO operators to compensate GSO operators for degraded EPFD limits suggests that the benefits under the current high-transaction-cost environment do not outweigh the costs.

Moreover, the complexity and opaqueness of the existing system can lead to regulatory gamesmanship. For example, Viasat alleges that some NGSO operators might artificially split systems or manipulate EPFD inputs to achieve “favorable findings” from the ITU that do not accurately reflecting the actual potential for interference.[34] This lack of transparency undermines trust and adds hidden costs to effective spectrum management. Indeed, actual interference may go unaddressed while theoretical compliance is maintained.

Ultimately, these accumulated transaction costs translate into reduced competition and lower consumer welfare. The current rules inhibit competition in the broadband market by limiting NGSO systems’ capabilities and increasing their costs.[35] This restricts the delivery of advanced services to consumers, particularly in unserved and underserved areas where NGSO systems could provide valuable and cost-effective broadband solutions. The economic benefits of updating these rules are estimated to be tens of billions of dollars annually, emphasizing the societal cost imposed by the current framework.[36]

IV. Applying a Law & Economics Framework

The NPRM asks many thoughtful, detailed questions, many of which require large amounts of data and technical analysis. But the core economic question is straightforward: What is the economically efficient level of protection for GSO systems today and in the near future?

Answering this question requires evaluating modern GSO links’ actual capabilities and economic value, rather than relying on outdated assumptions. The NPRM asks crucial questions about how current GSO networks’ ability to share spectrum has changed and what levels of protection they reasonably require, particularly in light of modern technologies like ACM. Overprotection of incumbent GSO systems can impose significant opportunity costs by stifling the growth and innovation of NGSO systems that offer high-speed, low-latency broadband.

As noted above, current EPFD limits are criticized as “overprotective” and that they “unnecessarily limit” NGSO operations, forcing them to adopt strategies like reducing power levels, implementing wide avoidance angles, and restricting the number of simultaneous beams, all of which degrade service quality and capacity. Kuiper, for instance, highlights that current EPFD limits can be hundreds of times more restrictive than interference-to-noise (I/N) ratios recommended by ITU for acceptable interference.[37] This indicates the potential for substantial spectral inefficiency, where valuable spectrum resources are underutilized due to overly conservative rules.

From an economic standpoint, the choice of short-term and long-term protection criteria is critical to balance GSO protection with NGSO innovation and competition. The NPRM’s tentative conclusion that a degraded throughput methodology is more appropriate for GSO operations that use ACM is economically sound.[38] This methodology, already used in NGSO-NGSO sharing and supported by Amazon,[39] accounts for modern system capabilities like ACM, which allows systems to maintain connection—even with signal degradation—by adjusting data rates. Such a performance-based approach, rather than rigid power limits, can foster greater efficiency by protecting actual service quality without unduly constraining the design of NGSO systems.

For GSO links that do not use ACM, the NPRM explores an I/N threshold as an alternative long-term protection criterion.[40] The choice of specific thresholds for both short-term and long-term criteria, whether for degraded throughput or I/N, must be carefully considered to balance incumbent protection with maximizing benefits from NGSO systems. Setting these criteria too restrictively can lead to significant economic costs by limiting NGSO capacity and innovation, while insufficient protection could harm GSO service reliability and revenue streams.

Although some incumbents argue that relaxing EPFD limits would degrade GSO service,[41] the record lacks evidence that current levels of protection are economically justified or proportionate to modern GSO-system resilience. Indeed, ITU recommendations themselves suggest less conservative thresholds (e.g., I/N ratios) than are currently mandated,[42] indicating a disconnect between legacy policy and technical necessity. The important metric, from an economic perspective, is not whether changes to the EPFD limits would cause harm to GSO operators, but whether net consumer welfare is enhanced by the tradeoffs entailed in such a change.

The goal should be to create a more technology-neutral regulatory environment focused on competitive outcomes, rather than outdated technological distinctions. The NPRM suggests, for instance, that allowing NGSO systems to operate at a minimum avoidance angle (e.g., four degrees) from the GSO arc could serve as a reasonable backstop, potentially providing flexibility without requiring highly detailed GSO reference-link evaluations.[43] This type of specific, empirically derived parameter can yield significantly more efficient spectrum use than broad, overly restrictive limits.

Different sharing models create distinct economic incentives. The NPRM asks whether the Commission should require good-faith coordination between GSO and NGSO operators.[44] While some argue that overly protective metrics discourage coordination by giving incumbents undue leverage,[45] a framework that encourages decentralized negotiation and information sharing is often more efficient. Amazon points out that a degraded throughput methodology inherently encourages information sharing, aligning with the Commission’s policy goals.[46] Clear “rules of the road” that define spectrum-usage rights are crucial to prevent a “tragedy of the commons,” where common resources are overexploited without accountability.

Addressing aggregate interference from multiple NGSO systems is a significant economic challenge. If not effectively managed, there is a risk that each individual NGSO system’s emissions, while within single-entry limits, cumulatively cause unacceptable interference to GSO networks. The NPRM questions if an aggregate limit is even necessary, or if its costs might outweigh its benefits, suggesting reliance on coordination.[47] Designing rules that manage aggregate interference efficiently, without unduly restricting individual NGSO operators, is key. This could involve, for example, a framework that facilitates coordination and allows operators to adjust their operations dynamically, rather than imposing rigid, one-size-fits-all limits that might stifle innovation and competition for new entrants.

The NPRM’s request for a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis is critically important. A thorough economic assessment must quantify both the benefits of less restrictive limits on NGSO operations, as well as the costs potentially imposed on GSO services or terrestrial services. This would align with ICLE’s broader advocacy for deregulation guided by a clear demonstration of net positive value.

Key benefits to quantify include:

  • Increased consumer access to broadband: Particularly for unserved and underserved populations in rural areas,[48] modernizing EPFD rules could expand NGSO capacity, enabling more extensive and reliable service coverage.
  • Lower service costs and prices: Updating EPFD rules can significantly reduce NGSO system costs by increasing spectral efficiency and potentially reducing constellation sizes. In a competitive market, these cost reductions would be expected to translate to lower prices for consumers.[49]
  • Value of innovation and competition: Reducing regulatory burdens and fostering a more dynamic environment would encourage investment in new technologies and services, leading to greater competition in the space sector.[50]
  • S. economic growth and leadership in the space sector: Promoting a favorable regulatory environment can enhance the United States’ position as a global leader in space innovation and attract investment.[51]

Key costs to quantify include:

  • Potential degradation of GSO services: This encompasses losses in capacity, disruptions to service levels, and the potential to forestall continued technological innovation by GSO networks if interference is not adequately managed.[52] The NPRM asks about expected loss in throughput or increase in unavailability for GSO links.
  • Compliance costs: This includes the administrative burdens and financial outlays associated with adhering to any new or modified rules.
  • Transition costs: The economic impacts of moving from the current regulatory framework to a new one, including the reevaluation of existing licenses and potential adjustments for operators.
  • Administrative costs: This involves the resources the Commission would need to monitor and enforce any new sharing framework effectively, as well as the potential for increased compliance and monitoring costs near international borders.

By thoroughly examining these economic dimensions, the Commission can ensure that its revised rules for satellite spectrum sharing are not only technically sound, but also optimally designed to foster innovation, competition, and widespread consumer benefits, while effectively managing potential harms.

V. Conclusion

The FCC’s efforts to modernize its satellite spectrum-sharing rules come at a pivotal moment for broadband competition and space-based connectivity. The current EPFD framework imposes substantial economic costs, inhibits efficient spectrum use, and constrains the deployment of next-generation NGSO systems. By adopting a more flexible, performance-based regime—one that reflects actual system capabilities and minimizes unnecessary regulatory burdens—the Commission can unlock greater innovation, investment, and consumer benefits. We urge the FCC to act decisively to realign its rules with technological and economic realities, ensuring the continued growth and competitiveness of the U.S. satellite-broadband sector.

[1] In the Matter of Modernizing Spectrum Sharing for Satellite Broadband, SB Docket No. 25-157; Revision of the Commission’s Rules to Establish More Efficient Spectrum Sharing between NGSO and GSO Satellite Systems, RM-11990 (Terminated) (Apr. 28, 2025), available at https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/FCC-25-23A1.pdf.

[2] Id., ¶ 2.

[3] Id., ¶ 1.

[4] Id., ¶ 2.

[5] Id., ¶ 2.

[6] Id., ¶ 5.

[7] Id., ¶ 8.

[8] Comments of the International Center for Law & Economics, In Re: Delete, Delete, Delete, GN Docket No. 25-133 (Apr. 11, 2025), available at https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025-Delete-Delete-Delete-Comments-r3.pdf.

[9] See, e.g., 47 U.S.C. § 151 (The FCC was established to help “make available, so far as possible, … a rapid, efficient, Nation-wide, and world-wide wire and radio communication service with adequate facilities at reasonable charges.”); id., § 157(a) (“It shall be the policy of the United States to encourage the provision of new technologies and services to the public.”); id., § 303(g) (The Commission shall “[s]tudy new uses for radio, provide for experimental uses of frequencies, and generally encourage the larger and more effective use of radio in the public interest.”); id., § 1302(a) (The Commission is exhorted to “encourage the deployment on a reasonable and timely basis of advanced telecommunications capability to all Americans.”); Telecommunications Act of 1996, Pub. L. 104-104, preamble (The Telecommunications Act of 1996 was enacted “[t]o promote competition and reduce regulation in order to secure lower prices and higher quality services for American telecommunications consumers and encourage the rapid deployment of new telecommunications technologies.”).

[10] ICLE, supra note 8 (“As private enterprises drive innovation in satellite technology and low-earth-orbit (LEO) deployments, overly restrictive or outdated domestic regulations risk ceding American leadership to foreign competitors operating under less burdensome oversight frameworks. Indeed, establishing a regulatory regime that encourages innovation, investment, and competition is critical to ensure continued U.S. dominance in the sector.”).

[11] Randall Berry, Pedro Bustamante, Dongning Guo, Thomas Hazlett, Michael Honig, Ilia Murtazashvili, Scott Palo, & Martin B. H. Weiss, Spectrum Rights in Outer Space: Interference Management for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Broadband Constellations, 14 J. Info. Pol’y 747, 767 (Dec. 2024) (“Of special note are mechanisms to address externalities. Uncompensated interference is an outcome that does not enter an operator’s decision process (much like pollution for power plants prior to emissions caps). This may allow a satellite operator to treat bandwidth as ‘free’ when it is, in fact, contentious (valuable at the margin to other parties), and effectively blocks rival wireless services that could use the bandwidth to produce more value. For social efficiency, rights and regulations should support mechanisms that internalize externalities, prompting actors to face prices that reflect true opportunity costs, or benefits, of given actions.”).

[12] Id., 779.

[13] Ronald H. Coase, The Federal Communications Commission, 2 J. L. Econ. 1, 27 (“It is sometimes implied that the aim of regulation in the radio industry should be to minimize interference. But this would be wrong. The aim should be to maximize output. All property rights interfere with the ability of people to use resources. What has to be insured is that the gain from interference more than offsets the harm it produces. There is no reason to suppose that the optimum situation is one in which there is no interference.”)

[14] Berry et al., supra note 11 at 750.

[15] NPRM, supra note 1 at note 44.

[16] Comments of Kuiper Systems LLC, In the Matter of Revision of the Commission’s Rules Regarding Sharing Spectrum Between NGSO and GSO Satellite Systems, Docket No. RM-11990 (Nov. 1, 2024), (“To develop these limits, the ITU studied a set of GSO reference links based on 1990s technology and services—focusing mostly on an 80-satellite NGSO system called Skybridge, initially proposed in 1997.” Skybridge was never deployed and its “technology was out-of-date by the time it was authorized”).

[17] Comments of Kuiper Systems LLC, In the Matter of Office of International Affairs Seeks Comments on Recommendations Approved by The World Radiocommunication Conference Advisory Committee, IB Docket No. 16-185 12 (Apr. 21, 2023).

[18] Id., 12 (“By failing to account for these technological advances, the existing EPFD framework is overly protective to GSO networks and spectrally inefficient, to the detriment of consumers of NGSO services with no added benefit to GSO.”).

[19] Id., 12 (“The current EPFD limits force NGSO systems to reduce power globally even where there are no GSO customers to protect, reducing the capacity available to offer NGSO services to customers in critical need of reliable, low-latency broadband connection that NGSO systems can provide.”).

[20] NPRM, supra note 1 ¶ 11.

[21] Id., at note 49.

[22] Id., ¶ 11.

[23] NPRM, supra note 1 ¶ 9; see also Coleman Bazelon & Paroma Sanyal, Unacceptable Interference: Economic Analysis Does Not Support Degrading Protections for GSO Networks, Brattle Group (Oct. 26, 2023), https://ssrn.com/abstract=4634764 (“NGSO operators are successfully deploying systems within the framework established by the existing EPFD limits, and NGSO deployment has thrived under the current EPFD limits.”).

[24] Kuiper Comments, supra note 16 6-9. NPRM, supra note 1 ¶ 10.

[25] Coase, supra note 13; see also Berry et al., supra note 11 at 778 (“If transaction costs are low and access rights are clearly defined, regardless of their specific forms, the Coase Theorem suggests that rights will end up in their most socially beneficial configuration.”)

[26] Doug Brake, Coase and WiFi: The Law and Economics of Unlicensed Spectrum, Inf. Technol. Innov. Found. (Jan. 2015), available at https://www2.itif.org/2015-coase-wifi.pdf.

[27] Harold Furchtgott-Roth, The Economic Benefits of Updating Regulations that Unnecessarily Limit Non-Geostationary Satellite Orbit Systems, SSRN (Aug. 13, 2023), https://ssrn.com/abstract=4538619.

[28] NPRM, supra note 1 ¶ 11.

[29] Id.

[30] Furchtgott-Roth, supra note 27, A-4 (“NGSO operators today are paying a 28% premium to fly additional satellites needed to offer 100 percent continuity of service while also meeting the conservative short-term protection objectives prescribed in the current epfd limits”).

[31] See, e.g., Bazelon & Sanyal, supra note 23 at 7 (reporting that, while NGSO operators could offer to compensate GSO operators to accept higher levels of interference, they have not done so); see also Harold Furchtgott-Roth, The Economic Benefits of Updating Regulations That Unnecessarily Limit Non-Geostationary Satellite Orbit Systems: Part II, SSRN (Nov. 2023), at 9 https://ssrn.com/abstract=4649941 (“The Brattle Group Report does not cite an example of successful negotiation between an NGSO and all GSOs globally over epfd rules, and I am not aware of any.”).

[32] Furchtgott-Roth, id., 8.

[33] Id., 9.

[34] Ensuring Innovation and Growth Opportunities in the New Space Age, Viasat (Mar. 2024), 10, 34, available at https://www.viasat.com/content/dam/us-site/corporate/documents/Ensuring%20Innovation%20and%20New%20Opportunities%20in%20the%20New%20Space%20Age%20(Updated%20March%2013%202024)(A4).pdf.

[35] Furchtgott-Roth, supra note 27 at 1 (“The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) equivalent power flux-density (epfd) rules crafted 25 years ago limit the capacity and effectiveness of NGSO fixed-satellite service (FSS) systems, reducing the availability and increasing the cost of services provided by NGSO FSS systems.”).

[36] Id., 2.

[37] Kuiper Comments, supra note 16 at 4 (“Recommendation ITU-R S.1432 states that NGSO system interference should be no more than 25% of the clear sky system noise. As the Petition for Rulemaking points out, that equates to a -6 dB interference-to-noise ratio (‘I/N’) limit, whereas applying the ITU’s EPFD limits to downlinks in the 10.7 GHz band yields limits that are 3.5 to 12 times more restrictive. Even worse, the ITU’s EPFD limits to downlinks in the 19.7-20.2 GHz band yield an I/N limit of -30.41 dB, 276 times more restrictive than the S.1432 standard.”)

[38] NPRM, supra note 1 ¶ 25.

[39] Amazon Degraded Throughput Ex Parte Letter Final, Kuiper Systems LLC (Sep. 23, 2022), available at https://www.fcc.gov/ecfs/document/10923537518950/1.

[40] NPRM, supra note 1 ¶ 26.

[41] Viasat, supra note 34 at 8-9.

[42] Kuiper Comments, supra note 16.

[43] NPRM, supra note 1 ¶ 28.

[44] Id.

[45] Amazon, supra note 39 (“an overly protective I/N metric… disincentivizes coordination by providing the incumbent undue leverage over the new entrant”).

[46] Id. (“It is true that additional, non-public information can enable even more efficient spectrum sharing by making this analysis more precise. While such information is not necessary to perform the degraded throughput analysis, the ability for operators to share additional non-public information and conduct this analysis with even greater precision is yet another reason that this methodology is well-suited to a regulatory framework aimed at coordination. That a degraded throughput methodology encourages information sharing in pursuit of spectral efficiency is a feature—not a flaw—that is entirely consistent with the Commission’s policy goals in this proceeding. As the Commission noted in this proceeding, ‘information sharing among NGSO FSS operators is essential to their efficient use of spectrum.’ What is more, the Commission’s rules already require NGSO FSS operators to coordinate in good faith, and these discussions often involve sharing far more information than required to conduct a degraded throughput analysis.”)

[47] NPRM, supra note 1 ¶ 30.

[48] NPRM, supra note 1 ¶ 3; Furchtgott-Roth, supra note 27 at 2 (“Updating 25-year-old epfd rules would provide tens of billions of dollars of benefits to customers around the world, particularly to the 2 billion people not yet connected to the Internet.”)

[49] Furchtgott-Roth, supra note 27 at 8 (“Updating 25-year-old epfd rules would provide tens of billions of dollars of benefits to customers around the world, particularly to the 2 billion people not yet connected to the Internet.”)

[50] Statement of Brendan Carr, NPRM, supra note 1; Kuiper Comments, supra note 16 (“In short, initiating a rulemaking to reevaluate NGSO-GSO spectrum sharing would provide significant benefits—increased spectral efficiency, higher-quality service, more capacity for remote and rural operations, more efficient spectrum use, more innovation and competition, and more investment in next-generation technologies—while still protecting GSO operations from unacceptable interference.”)

[51] Id.

[52] Bazelon & Sanyal, supra note 23, A-4; Viasat, supra note 34 at 8.

Regulatory Comments

A Europe Fit for the Age of Startups: Rhetoric and Reality in the EU’s Digital Package

I. Introduction

Europe is at a crossroads. While the global hegemony that it enjoyed into the 20th century continues to erode, the continent remains an important—albeit diminished—source of economic output, productivity, innovation, and technology.[1] European policymakers have expressed growing alarm in recent years that the continent’s weak economic dynamism and productivity may lead it to fall further behind global leaders like the United States and China.[2] Against this backdrop, the next decade will be of pivotal importance: can Europe reclaim its place at the technological frontier, or will the coming years seal Europe’s fate as a spent force that can no longer compete on the global stage?

These fears were reflected in a recent report on European competitiveness written by former Italian Prime Minister and European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi (“Draghi Report”).[3] The report painted a sobering picture of a competitiveness and innovation gap that, unless promptly addressed, is expected to only compound Europe’s decline over the coming years and decades.[4] According to the report:

Across different metrics, a wide gap in GDP has opened up between the EU and the US, driven mainly by a more pronounced slowdown in productivity growth in Europe. Europe’s households have paid the price in foregone living standards. On a per capita basis, real disposable income has grown almost twice as much in the US as in the EU since 2000.[5]

These challenges likely have multiple causes. The Draghi Report identifies several contributing factors, including high energy costs, fragmented capital markets, unfavourable conditions for venture-capital investment, low startup activity, and overregulation. To date, European policymakers have acknowledged some of these issues and expressed an at least nominal commitment to address them. For instance, fostering home-grown startups is a key goal of the current EU administration and a priority under the recently unveiled Competitiveness Compass (“Compass”).[6] At the same time, the EU has aimed to position itself as a leader in digital rulemaking, enacting a series of pioneering regulations—including the Digital Markets Act (DMA), Digital Services Act (DSA), Data Act (DA), and Artificial Intelligence Act (AI Act)—that are known collectively as the “Digital Package”.[7] According to Ursula Von der Leyen, who in July 2024 renewed her mandate as president of the Commission until 2029, these new regulations are needed to create “A Europe fit for the Digital Age”.[8]

Unfortunately, it appears these two pillars of the EU’s industrial policy—expansive digital regulation and startup promotion—may be working at cross purposes or, worse still, reinforcing each other in misguided directions. The Draghi Report suggests a correlation between overregulation and poor economic performance, including EU startups’ limited ability to scale. Moreover, the EU’s focus on promoting startups over fostering innovation itself reflects a misplaced emphasis on who drives innovation, rather than on innovation outcomes. This approach risks stifling progress by neglecting valuable contributions from other sources, including large firms and established incumbents—a misstep that could paradoxically deprive startups of the very innovations upon which they often build.

Indeed, R&D investments and productivity tend to increase with size,[9] and large tech firms are among the most productive and innovative segments of the modern economy.[10] This reality challenges the narrative that policymakers should focus primarily on facilitating innovation from tech startups (“TSUs”).[11] Large firms also often provide vital exit strategies for digital-market startups, many of which are formed with acquisition explicitly in mind.[12] Foreclosing this avenue risks deterring the creation of TSUs in the first place, in addition to forfeiting the benefits  that acquisition by an incumbent may yield, such as access to superior managerial capabilities,[13] greater scale, and the integration of the TSU’s innovative projects into the acquirer’s “ecosystem”.[14]

Some of the EU Digital Package’s regulations aim to hobble large players under the misguided premise that hindering incumbents would automatically elevate TSUs.[15] But in the complex net of competitive and cooperative relations that characterize the digital economy,[16] disruptions to the central digital platforms can harm the many firms that depend on them for cumulative and generative innovation. For example, when a TSU is acquired by a DMA-designated “gatekeeper”, it must automatically comply with the DMA. This means the gatekeeper is required to share certain competitive advantages and is restricted in its ability to expand into additional markets.[17] This, in turn, can affect a TSU’s ability to scale, as well as the investments it can hope to receive from gatekeepers. To the extent that the DMA deprioritizes economic efficiency and consumer welfare, reducing a platform’s attractiveness—such as through a deprecated user experience or diminished convenience[18]—may also harm the business prospects of startups that depend on it.[19]

This approach, and the underlying political and regulatory zeal against “Big Tech” that underpins it, is likely to conflict with key pillars of the Draghi Report. Where the report emphasizes strong support for startups and for small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), its primary concern is with removing the obstacles that prevent companies from scaling to compete globally.[20] In other words, size is seen as vital to the EU’s competitiveness strategy. As the report finds:

The lack of a true Single Market also prevents enough companies in the wider economy from reaching sufficient size to accelerate adoption of advanced technologies. There are many barriers that lead to companies in Europe to “stay small” and neglect the opportunities of the Single Market.[21]

Further:

However, there is a close link between the size of companies and technology adoption. Evidence from the US show that adoption rises with firm size for all advanced technologies. Likewise, while in 2023 30% of large businesses in the EU had adopted AI, only 7% of SMEs had done the same. Size enables adoption because larger companies can spread the high fixed costs of AI investment over greater revenues, they can count on more skilled management to make the necessary organisational changes, and they can deploy AI more productively owing to larger data sets.[22]

Against this backdrop, this paper examines whether and to what extent the EU’s goals of fostering startups and regulating digital markets align, as well as the role that promoting digital startup activity and investment has played in the design of the Digital Package. The Draghi Report called for an impact assessment of the effect of regulations on small companies,[23] an area where it finds the Commission has traditionally fallen short.[24] Echoing similar concerns, fellow former Italian Prime Minister Enrico published a similar report mere months before the Draghi Report (“Letta Report”), which found that SMEs and deep-tech startups were disproportionately hampered by regulation, bureaucratic red tape, and overlapping and overly complex rules.[25]

Our analysis reveals mixed degrees of attention paid to TSUs in the design of the Digital Package. In fact, the impact assessments of key legislation like the DMA, Data Act, and AI Act at times appear to overlook the effects these regulations would have on startups. This omission is particularly problematic for several reasons:

  1. European policymakers have widely cited these measures as essential to promote startup activity;
  2. There is growing anecdotal evidence to suggest that these regulations may harm startups; and
  3. A robust body of empirical research demonstrates that digital regulations like the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) have contributed to increased market concentration and a decline in startup investment.

Thus, while startup creation was and remains a clear goal for European policymakers (and a key weakness identified in the Draghi Report), the actual consideration that the Digital Package gives to TSUs may not be commeasure with those policy commitments. This could mean two either that the Digital Package was not intended to primarily or significantly benefit tech startups or, alternatively, that EU policymakers incorrectly assumed the Digital Package would make everyone better off, including TSUs. The former highlights a seeming contradiction between EU leaders’ public rhetoric and the real motivations driving the enactment of digital regulations. The latter suggests a faith-based assumption that digital regulations would benefit TSUs that has proven unsupported by the impact assessments.

This lack of focus on TSUs fails to align with either EU policymakers’ strong rhetoric or the priorities outlined in the Compass. It is also unlikely to effectively address the concerns raised in the Draghi Report regarding the relationship between regulation and innovation.

If tech startup growth is a key component of the Digital Age, as EU policymakers have repeatedly claimed, failing to adequately consider how the Digital Package will affect TSUs—as well as innovation from other sources—could ultimately serve to make Europe unfit for the Digital Age, pushing the continent even further from the technological frontier.

II. Why Tech Startups Are Relevant for the Digital Package

Given the absence of a unified EU definition for TSUs, this paper will draw from common understandings of the term employed in the literature. Startups and scaleups are generally understood as recently established entities focused on new technological developments, often relying on collaboration, open systems, and networks. They are characterized by innovative business models, scalable products or services, significant investment needs, equity-based capital structures, rapid growth potential, and ambitions to scale. They also tend to have a high tolerance for risk, rely heavily on intangible assets (such as data and intellectual property), and employ a small but highly skilled workforce.[26] Accordingly, in this paper, “TSU” will be used as a shorthand for small, young, and innovative firms with growth potential in digital markets—commonly referred to as startups or scaleups.

There are three key reasons why the EU’s Digital Package should not overlook TSUs. First, there is a strong policy push to strengthen TSUs in Europe. This is underpinned by a sense that startup activity is a driver of a healthy economy, a sentiment evident in the Draghi report.[27] Second, evidence suggests that regulation can negatively affect investment and startup activity. It would thus be reasonable to expect the Digital Package to be sensitive to the potential chilling effects of regulation on startups and innovation, including TSUs. Third, there have been indications that EU regulations—including the Digital Package—have already hindered startup activity. For instance, there is emerging evidence the DMA may have harmed the online-advertising industry, which often serves as a key source of revenue for tech startups. In short, there are important reasons for the Digital Package to be cognizant of startup activity.

A. The Policy Push for TSUs in Europe

EU leaders have long called for a focus on TSUs and their exceptional needs. According to France Digitale’s Manifesto for the 2024 European Elections (“France Digitale Manifesto”) and the European Parliament’s Joint Motion for a Resolution on the State of the SME Union (“SME Resolution”),[28] these include access to high-quality data; high levels of collaboration; open systems and interoperability; the need to attract significant investment; the ability to manage rapid growth; and minimal regulatory burdens. These needs require specific attention.

Both the France Digitale Manifesto and the SME Resolution call for establishing a coherent European definition of startups distinct from the existing definition of SMEs, as many startups do not fit the definition of an SME. This would not only enable targeted action more responsive to TSUs’ needs (on such topics as compliance burdens, visas, funding, and public procurement) but would also address the exclusion of TSUs with more than 250 employees from certain relevant European programs—notably, the accelerator program.[29]

The EU Recommendation on the Definition of Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises (2003/361/EC) defines SMEs based on headcount and turnover thresholds. [30] While all startups qualify as small or medium-sized businesses, the reverse is not necessarily true: not all SMEs are startups. Indeed, there is a vast difference between a typical family-owned small company and a technology startup. This is not to say that, at the margin, one of these activities necessarily contributes more to economic growth and competitiveness than the other. Rather, the issue is that the type of activity that policymakers typically want to protect and encourage is narrower than what the SME label encompasses.

The lack of a unified legal definition in the EU, or a consensus on which key components should be included or which methodologies should be applies, makes it difficult for European regulations to consider the specific interests of such a distinct group of SMEs; it also constitutes the first hurdle in formulating coherent EU-wide TSU policies.[31] Moreover, it undermines the effectiveness of existing policies intended to foster startup growth.[32]

A charitable explanation for this oversight is that the lack of a unified TSU definition is a byproduct of “tech” vernacular, which is itself rife with opaque terms such as “scaleup”, “unicorn”, “digital entrepreneur”, or “nascent competitor”, which can be vague, overlapping, and sometimes used interchangeably. Conversely, the oversight could also indicate that European policymakers have been less focused on promoting TSUs than their policy pronouncements might suggest, especially given the general proclivity for definitions and categorizations in the EU.

In support of the latter interpretation, France Digitale—the largest startup association in Europe—has argued that European TSUs and their investors “don’t get the same recognition and support of their counterparts in America and Asia, which makes their development more complex and hampers their competitiveness”. France Digitale also contends that “more than a third of the Commission’s impact assessments do not provide enough details on the needs of SMEs” and that, despite dialogue with policymakers, “these discussions are not always translated into efficient measures”. Amid what it characterizes as challenging investment conditions over the past five years, France Digitale claims that “Europe has focused on establishing the regulatory framework for the twin green and digital transition, rather than on promoting innovation”.[33]

A recent Stripe survey of digital startups regarding the key challenges they face[34] found that respondents report “the intended benefits [of the EU’s initiatives to improve the regulatory environment] are not yet being felt on the ground. Eighty-three percent of startups believe policymaking is geared toward incumbents and want policymakers to focus on changes that will save them time and money, so they can make the most of limited resources”.

France Digitale has called for additional measures to address these shortcomings, including regulatory “breathing space” to allow TSUs to comply with new regulations. The group proposes extending protections for TSUs beyond the 12 months found in the DSA and Data Act, and broadening the moratoria on burdens imposed on TSUs to include companies’ efforts to comply with prior regulations.[35] As France Digitale member and software-as-a-service company (SaaS) Mirakl argued, the next European Commission (EC) mandate (2024-2029) should allow TSUs “time to comply with the previous regulations before introducing new constraints that will not ensure a level playing field with the American and Asian tech players”.[36]

France Digitale also highlighted the sharp decline in EU M&A activity in 2023.[37] It emphasized the need to find alternative ways to attract investors and support growth to mitigate potential negative impacts on innovation in Europe. It called for fostering a European exit culture by exploring alternatives to existing market exit strategies; and it identified the recruitment of skilled personnel as the top challenge for most TSUs.[38]

The SME Resolution similarly put forward proposals to foster European startups, including using startups’ innovation to promote EU competitiveness and to achieve climate targets. The Parliament likewise called for a formal legal definition of TSUs. The SME Resolution argued that such EU policy must consider TSU interests in minimizing regulatory compliance burdens, as well as pragmatic suggestions to expand TSUs’ access to public and private capital, public procurement, and the talent pipeline.[39]

While the SME Resolution does not touch on digital market competition, per se, Parliament expressed in its Innovation Resolution that it was “of the view that regulatory mechanisms must adapt to and evolve in sync with technological advancements and market shifts to uphold competitiveness and innovation, especially in relation to European start-ups”.[40] The Innovation Resolution also called on the European Commission and EU member states to foster a European-led ecosystem of marketplaces for non-personal data.[41]

For its part, the Commission has itself vowed to foster the growth of TSUs. New Commissioners, for example, have a mandate to implement the Draghi Report’s recommendations, which highlight TSUs’ importance in reigniting growth and achieving technological leadership.[42] In particular, the report highlights inconsistent and restrictive regulations that have bogged down European startups, especially their ability to scale.[43] The report also details problems EU startups have experienced in attracting capital, noting that 61% of global funding for AI startups goes to U.S. companies, 17% to Chinese companies, and just 6% to those in the EU.[44]

Among the Draghi Report’s proposed remedies is to create an “Innovative European Company” statute that would provide a single digital identity valid throughout the EU.[45] This proposal underscores that the report views inconsistent laws as an impediment to fostering startups in the EU. “Innovative European Companies” would have access to harmonized legislation concerning corporate law and insolvency, as well as a few key aspects of labour law and taxation.[46] But in line with France Digitale’s observations, the report also proposes that:

The EU should carry out a thorough impact assessment of the effect of digital and other regulation on small companies, with the aim of excluding SMEs from regulations that only large companies are able to comply with.[47]

The Draghi Report offers this suggestion is made in the context of helping “inventors to become investors” by supporting the transition from invention to commercialization, which the report identifies as one of the EU’s primary comparative weaknesses. Elsewhere, the Draghi Report is more direct in asserting that digital regulations could hinder TSUs and other innovative companies, finding that “we continue to add regulatory burdens onto European companies, which are especially costly for SMEs and self-defeating for those in the digital sectors”.[48] The report also notes that regulatory barriers “to scaling up are particularly onerous in the tech sector, especially for young companies”.[49] Further, the report finds that:

EU regulation imposes a proportionally higher burden on SMEs and small mid-caps than on larger companies, yet the EU lacks a framework to assess these costs. About 80% of Commission Work Programme items are relevant to SMEs but only around half of impact assessments substantially focused on these companies. The EU also lacks a commonly agreed definition of small mid-caps and readily available statistical data.[50]

In her “Political Guidelines for the Next European Commission”,[51] Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed the need to allow EU TSUs to scale. The guidelines document asserts that:

European companies and start-ups should not be forced to look at the United States, Asia or other markets to finance their expansion. They should be able find what they need to grow here in Europe too.[52]

A key means to help small companies grow and scale is to simplify relevant regulations and alleviate the TSUs’ bureaucratic burden.[53] Indeed, an overarching theme of the Political Guidelines is making business easier by creating a simpler, more coherent legal framework is an overarching theme of Von der Leyen’s Political Guidelines.[54] Accordingly, they recommend that:

Each Commissioner will be tasked with focusing on reducing administrative burdens and simplifying implementation: less red tape and reporting, more trust, better enforcement, faster permitting.[55]

The guidelines frame this as a general principle, rather than one meant to apply solely to TSUs. They do, however, appear to recognize that startups and small firms may be disproportionately harmed by the burden of complying with a heavy and overlapping regulatory load.[56] These themes were carried through to the mission letters issued to the new EU commissioners (Mission Letters)[57] and the more recent Compass document.[58]

The Compass, in particular, identifies innovative, disruptive startups as key to European competitiveness.[59] It also highlights concerns raised in the Draghi Report, such as the difficulties startups face in scaling, overcoming regulatory barriers, and accessing capital. [60] In response, the Compass proposes a series of measures, among which is a dedicated startup and scaleup strategy that proposes to “address the obstacles that are preventing new companies from emerging and scaling up”.[61] The strategy would include innovation support and a “28th legal regime” meant to harmonize and simplify applicable rules.[62]

The principles underlying these recent policy statements can also be found in a wide range of past EU policies related to TSUs. These policies have traditionally focused on access to investment capital, creating innovation networks, and building capacity. Some examples include the Start-Up and Scale-Up Initiative (SSI) from 2016, which sought to provide a supportive ecosystem that would help TSUs access capital;[63] the European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI), which mobilizes private investment in strategic projects;[64] 2021’s Startup Europe project, which looked to strengthen networking opportunities for “deep tech”;[65] the New European Innovation Agenda (2022), which focused on funding scaleups in order to create regional “innovation valleys”, develop a solid talent base, and improve policymaking tools;[66] the European Innovation Council (EIC), whose 2023 work programme included more than €1 billion in funding for startups with breakthrough ideas to help bring their innovations to market;[67] and the recently created European Tech Champions Initiative (ETCI) Fund of Funds, which commits more than €3.75 billion to support European high-tech companies with late-stage growth capital.[68]

Despite these efforts, however, there remain concerns among the EU’s TSU community. In response to the Commission’s 2023 New European Innovation Agenda and roadmap for startup growth, for example, Stripe published a report exploring whether proposed changes in European policy and regulation addressed key TSUs challenges. It noted that:

The intended benefits [of the EU’s initiatives to improve the regulatory environment] are not yet being felt on the ground. Eighty-three percent of startups believe policymaking is geared toward incumbents and want policymakers to focus on changes that will save them time and money, so they can make the most of limited resources.[69]

It is not surprising that stakeholders continue to argue for the EU to adopt more coherent startup and scaleup strategies.[70] As the Draghi Report noted, many European entrepreneurs:

Prefer to seek financing from US venture capitalists and scale up in the US market. Between 2008 and 2021, close to 30% of the “unicorns” founded in Europe — startups that went on to be valued at over USD billion — relocated their headquarters abroad, with the vast majority moving to the US.[71]

Consistent with these concerns, the European Parliament’s Innovation Resolution [72] called for a range of capacity-building measures that would focus on more traditional needs. But even as it called for comprehensive strategies to deploy innovation enabled by startups, the report suggested that the EU lacks such strategies. Furthermore, if the Innovation Resolution reflects policies that European startups would wish to see prioritized, it is notable that Parliament did not see the Digital Package as the means to achieve those goals. Possible explanations include either that the package fails to address more fundamental challenges that TSUs face, or that it does not provide TSUs with specific opportunities.

B. Evidence that Regulation Can Harm Startups

Regulating digital markets has been a major focus of the EU’s efforts over the past five years. But the Draghi Report, the Letta Report, the Compass, and several other recent policy statements all suggest that EU regulation can be a hurdle for TSUs. The Draghi Report even called for regulators to exercise “self-restraint” and consider “doing less”.[73] The Letta Report adds that the EU’s heavy, “risk-averse” regulatory framework imposes an “unsustainable” burden on startups (e.g., compliance costs for a typical SME in sectors like business services can reach up to €10,000[74]); which the report in turn identifies as a principal hurdle for the future of the Single Market:

Moreover, the tendency – present at all levels in Europe and among Member States following the economic and financial crisis – towards a risk-averse regulatory approach has led to a surplus of overlapping regulations, creating legal uncertainty and imposing substantial compliance costs. This scenario has adversely affected the business environment and economic activities, hitting SMEs the hardest. Thus, addressing these regulatory challenges is not merely a task of reform but a crucial necessity to unlock the full potential of the Single Market.[75]

Indeed, a mounting body of evidence suggests that these fears are not misplaced, and that regulation can lead to significant inefficiencies and unintended consequences. For example, while the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) was designed to strengthen data privacy, empirical studies find that it has had significant unintended effects on competition and startup innovation. [76] A study by Jian Jia, Ginger Zhe Jin, and Liad Wagman finds that, within a year of the GDPR’s enforcement, European tech startups experienced a 26.1% drop in monthly venture-funding deals compared to their U.S. counterparts.[77]

This decline in investment was not just a short-term shock. Follow-up analysis by the same authors shows a persisting reduction in the number of funding deals for nascent European tech ventures relative to U.S. counterparts through at least 2020.[78] This contraction in venture-capital investment appears to have been most acute for data-driven startups, as well as new and early-stage startups (ages zero to three years).[79] Business-to-consumer (B2C) businesses also saw more marked declines in the EU.[80] These findings suggest that the GDPR’s compliance burdens—from costly consent requirements to data-handling obligations—disproportionately deterred investment in young, data-centric firms, which are precisely the sorts of startups that European policymakers elsewhere seek to foster.

There is also evidence that the GDPR has disproportionately favoured incumbent firms, thereby increasing market concentration. A study by Garrett A. Johnson, Scott K. Shriver, and Samuel G. Goldberg found that, immediately after the GDPR took effect, websites curtailed their use of third-party digital tools and advertising vendors, dropping many smaller ad-tech providers. The result was a 15% reduction in overall web-technology vendors used for EU visitors and a 17% increase in market concentration among those service providers.[81] In practice, the GDPR prompted websites to rely more on a few large vendors—notably, those owned by Google and Facebook—with resources to comply with the new rules, while cutting ties with smaller analytics and advertising firms:

Google-owned vendors grow from 28.8% to 31.9% of site-vendor pairs in the short run, and Facebook grows from 3.4% to 3.6%.[82]

As Michal S. Gal and Oshrit Aviv put it:

The GDPR limits competition and increases concentration in data and data-related markets, and potentially strengthens large data controllers. It also further reinforces the already existing barriers to data sharing in the EU, thereby potentially reducing data synergies that might result from combining different datasets controlled by separate entities.[83]

These findings were echoed in an empirical study by Chinchih Chen, Carl B. Frey, and Giorgio Presidente, which concludes that:

The GDPR had the unintended consequence of harming the profitability of companies targeting European consumers through the cost channel. Technology firms experienced a 2.1% decline in profits, but not in sales. The GDPR increased extra expenses, added to firms’ wage bills, and accelerated patenting in GDPR-related technology fields. The main burdens have been borne by smaller companies.[84]

Likewise, a paper by Yu Zhao, Pinar Yildirim, & Pradeep K. Chintagunta found that the GDPR led to increased online friction, a growing disparity between large and small firms, and a less-competitive environment.[85] They conclude that:

For policy-makers, our results highlight the unintended consequences of GDPR on consumers and firms. For firms, the post-GDPR environment is anticompetitive as smaller firms see reduced consumer traffic, while for larger domains, both consumer visits and consumer checkouts increase relative to the non-EU benchmark. The higher cost of compliance for smaller domains may have exacerbated the inequality between large and small domains, as evident from the differential effects of GDPR on domain traffic and e-commerce checkout volumes.[86]

These empirical patterns underscore a key unintended consequence: privacy regulation may inadvertently entrench incumbent firms, who can comply at-scale, while raising obstacles for startups that lack similar compliance resources. Indeed, this is consistent with the alarm raised by the Draghi Report, which similarly identifies the GDPR as one of the regulations that has hindered EU companies due to its fragmented implementation.[87] The Draghi Report also cites the GDPR as an example of how compliance burdens, complexity, and inconsistencies among overlapping regulations—such as the GDPR and the AI Act—can undermine advancements in artificial intelligence.[88]

Beyond its effects on investment and competition, some authors have found indications that the GDPR has also slowed innovation output. Rebecca Janssen, Reinhold Kesler, Michael E. Kummer, and Joel Waldfogel identify a “lost generation” of apps in the EU mobile ecosystem following GDPR’s implementation. Using data on 4.1 million Google Play apps, they estimate the GDPR led approximately one-third of existing apps to exit the EU market, and the rate of new app entries fell by roughly half in the subsequent quarters:

When it took effect, GDPR precipitated the exit of over a third of available apps; and following its enactment, the rate of new entry fell by 47.2 percent, in effect creating a lost generation of apps.[89]

The authors show these changes led to significantly less consumer choice and lower usage, effectively reducing consumer surplus by roughly one-third relative to a no-GDPR scenario.[90] In their words:

Whatever the benefits of GDPR’s privacy protection, it appears to have been accompanied by substantial costs to consumers, from a diminished choice set, and to producers from depressed revenue and increased costs.[91]

Other studies reinforce this theme. Klaus M. Miller, Julia Schmitt, and Bernd Skiera find that the GDPR depressed user engagement on websites and that more popular sites lost fewer users, suggesting the regulation diverted activity to dominant platforms:

Our results show that the GDPR negatively affected online usage per website on average; specifically, weekly visits decreased by 4.88% in the first 3 months and 10.02% after 18 months post-enactment. At the 18-month mark, these declines translated into average revenue losses of about $7 million for e-commerce websites and nearly $2.5 million for ad-based websites. Nonetheless, the GDPR’s impact varied across website size, industry, and user origin, with some large websites and industries benefiting from the regulation. Notably, the largest 10% of websites pre-GDPR suffered less, suggesting that the GDPR has increased market concentration.[92]

Together, these empirical studies paint a consistent picture: The GDPR’s well-intended privacy safeguards inadvertently slowed startup innovation and market entry, while diminishing competitive dynamism. The evidence of fewer new firms, reduced product offerings, and users consolidating toward larger providers highlights a key tradeoff: stringent data protection can, and often does, come at the expense of competition and innovation. Policymakers in other areas should weigh these costs against the purported privacy benefits, as the GDPR experience demonstrates how sweeping regulation may create barriers to entry or encourage market exit among small tech firms.

The voices against the GDPR have recently gotten louder, following the EU’s “crusade against overregulation” in light of the Draghi Report.[93] The Commission is now reportedly exploring ways to scale back a law widely regarded as one of “Europe’s most complex pieces of legislation by the technology sector”.[94] The anticipated simplification package would ease reporting requirements for organizations with less than 500 people.[95] As Politico has reported:

For small and cash-strapped businesses, the reams of documentation the GDPR asks companies to produce has long been a gripe. Justice Commissioner Michael McGrath said the key takeaway from a review of the GDPR last summer “is the need for greater support [for] businesses, especially SMEs, in their compliance efforts.”[96]

The regulations that make up the EU’s Digital Package could produce adverse effects similar to those seen with the GDPR. Economic theory suggests that there are reasons to believe the higher compliance costs associated with digital regulations may particularly hamper nascent firms and dampen entrepreneurs’ incentives to pursue new ventures.

For example, building on the political momentum of the GDPR, the EU recently enacted the DMA and DSA, which aim to promote fair competition and safer online spaces, respectively.[97] The DMA targets large online “gatekeeper” platforms with ex-ante obligations—e.g., requiring interoperability and limits on self-preferencing—to ensure “contestable and fair” digital markets in which smaller competitors can thrive. The DSA updates rules for online intermediaries and content moderation, seeking to protect users while harmonizing responsibilities across platforms.

Because both acts are recent, these is not yet much rigorous empirical analysis of their outcomes. EU officials predict these regulations will open new opportunities for startups and scaleups by curbing the allegedly exploitative practices of Big Tech. For instance, the Commission asserts that, under the DMA, “innovators and technology start-ups will have new opportunities to compete… without having to comply with unfair terms and conditions” imposed by dominant platforms.[98]

By seeking to prevent gatekeepers from abusing their market power (e.g., by unfairly blocking access to data or markets), the DMA seeks to level the playing field and enable nascent firms to reach users on more meritocratic terms. Similarly, the DSA’s backers argue that clearer liability and transparency rules for online services will increase trust and safety, which could benefit emerging companies in the long run by improving the online environment for all businesses.

Many observers caution, however, that these new regulations also introduce hurdles for startups, echoing some patterns seen with GDPR. Because the DMA squarely targets the business models of Big Tech firms, there is concern about indirect effects on the startup ecosystem that interacts with those “gatekeepers”. One worry is that restricting large platforms’ behaviour might reduce important avenues for startups, such as acquisitions or platform partnerships.

Venture investors note that many startups see acquisition by a major tech company as a common exit strategy. Thus, if the DMA makes large firms more hesitant or constrained in acquiring emerging competitors (see, e.g., Art 14 DMA), the pool of venture capital and startup valuations in Europe could decline, as investors may anticipate a more difficult path to profitable exits.[99]

The DMA might also stifle TSUs by making gatekeepers’ platforms less attractive to users—such as by, e.g., limiting gatekeepers’ ability to restrict access to the platform. This could degrade platforms’ incentives to innovate and their ability to curate content in ways that maximize the platform’s total value to users.[100] In addition, the DMA’s cumbersome privacy requirements might also reduce competition—not just in advertising, but across the board. As Carmelo Cennamo and Juan Santaló contend:

It does not look like too much of a stretch to assume that the DMA implementation may have similar distortive effects in the targeted advertising markets benefitting some gatekeepers while castigating others. The risk is that in between, the real casualties will be the SMEs (and their direct-to-consumer model). Apps/webpages that have a larger user base can indeed better monitor consumer behavior and offer targeted advertising with a higher ROI than apps with a smaller user base. Overall, this may reinforce the competitive advantage of big players (with direct access to consumer’s data) at the expense of smaller ones. Note hence that the unintended effect of the DMA may be to consolidate the dominant position of big established platforms instead of making digital markets more contestable.[101]

A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) similarly notes that, while the EU intends the DMA to help European tech firms scale up, “a regulatory disabling of U.S. tech giants… could lead to perverse and unintended consequences for European businesses”, potentially benefiting “European incumbents and subsidized Chinese competitors” more than EU startups.[102]

In short, unless the DMA is carefully calibrated, it might protect competitors rather than competition, inadvertently favouring firms that are already mid-sized or well-connected over scrappy young innovators.

For the DSA, the potential burden of compliance is a key concern. The DSA imposes obligations (such as faster removal of illegal content, audits of algorithms, and new transparency requirements) that scale up with a platform’s size (with the most stringent rules for “Very Large Online Platforms”). Even so, smaller startups fear the DSA could add complex compliance costs at-odds with their limited resources. Early commentary has stressed that, if not designed with proportionality, the DSA might force startups to divert precious time and money into content moderation and legal compliance instead of innovation. As a recent GLOBSEC report argued:

The new legislation could add extra hurdle for startups, which will have to deal with complex rules regarding illegal content, regardless of their size and resources. As a result, they would not be able to focus on their core business and grow at the desired pace.[103]

For example, a young platform may struggle if it is expected to “monitor or filter all content users upload” or meet short takedown deadlines across EU jurisdictions.[104] Such requirements could slow a startup’s ability to scale, especially if they need to rapidly hire compliance staff or implement costly filtering technology.

Advocates for startups have therefore argued for graduated obligations and a “sandbox” approach to ensure that new ventures can grow without being immediately crushed by regulatory overhead. It remains to be seen how the DSA will be enforced in practice, but the principle of proportional enforcement will be crucial. As one observer noted, “small startups shouldn’t be penalized just because they don’t have the content monitoring resources of companies like Google or Facebook”.[105]

A common theme in analysing the GDPR, DMA, and DSA is that regulations often have unintended consequences. Empirical studies strongly suggest that well-intentioned regulations can inadvertently hinder competition and innovation, particularly affecting startups and new market entrants. Europe’s experience with the GDPR should serve as a cautionary tale. While it strengthened users’ privacy rights, it also coincided with a decline in venture-capital investment, fewer new market entrants, and increased concentration in various digital sectors.

Startups, which often drive disruptive innovation, appear to have been the most negatively affected by the GDPR, given their reliance on data-driven business models and dependence on external capital.[106] That policymakers did not anticipate these outcomes illustrates the tradeoffs inherent in digital market regulation.[107] As Gal and Aviv observed, the GDPR was enacted with little attention to its potential competitive side effects, which “may well constitute an unintended and unheeded welfare-reducing consequence”.[108]

Unintended effects can include not only dampened startup activity, but also shifts in competitive dynamics that favour the very incumbents that regulations seek to rein in. Large tech firms often have compliance departments and diversified data assets that allow them to adapt to new rules relatively unscathed, while a two-person startup would face a much higher relative cost. This dynamic was evident when GDPR’s implementation drove many small ad-tech vendors out of the European market, reinforcing the dominance of Google and Facebook’s ad services.[109] In the long run, such compliance-driven market concentration can reduce consumer choice and slow the pace of innovation, as fewer new firms attempt to challenge incumbents.[110]

Similar concerns are now being raised about the cumulative impact of the EU’s new digital regulations—the DMA, DSA, and AI Act—on Europe’s startup ecosystem. Many in the tech community stress vigilance to avoid repeating the GDPR’s pitfalls. Surveys of investors already indicate anxiety. For example, most European venture capitalists foresee that expansive regulatory regimes could make EU startups less competitive on the global stage. According to American Edge Project:

General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) led to less investment in startups after 2018. Newer regulation such as potential AI rules and the Digital Markets Act (DMA) exacerbate that state of affairs; for instance, it is likely that the recently passed AI legislation will require costly and protracted updates to carve out certain exceptions for some businesses.[111]

Academic research on incentives for innovation also suggests that, if exit opportunities (like acquisitions) are curtailed or compliance costs rise, venture funding and entrepreneurship could shift to less regulated jurisdictions.[112] Ultimately, the challenge for regulators is to strike a balance: safeguarding consumer interests without inadvertently stifling the agile competition that startups provide. The competitive and innovative vitality of digital markets hinges on getting this balance right.

The literature underscores that regulatory interventions must be coupled with careful monitoring and periodic evaluation. If evidence shows a rule is unduly harming startup formation or investment, policymakers may need to adjust thresholds, provide exemptions for small firms, or offer guidance and support to reduce the burden. The EU’s bold regulatory moves will require ongoing assessment to ensure that “fair and open” markets[113] materialize in practice—delivering not only compliance by big platforms, but also more room for Europe’s next generation of startups to grow and compete.

III. Tech Startups’ Place in the EU’s Digital Package

Given the pitfalls of EU digital regulations discussed in the previous section, the question arises whether the Digital Package makes any concessions to TSUs or acknowledges the need to simplify rules and reduce their regulatory burden, as emphasized in the Draghi Report. Such acknowledgements would be a sign that policymakers were cognizant of, and took measures to avert, the sorts of unintended consequences discussed above.

In this section we survey the impact statements for the rules that comprise the EU’s Digital Package, which reveal varying degrees of acknowledgment and interest on the part of the regulations’ drafters for the position of TSUs. The following sub-sections assess each of the Digital Package’s regulations individually.

A. Digital Markets Act

The DMA has primary objectives, which are set out in Art. 1:

To ensure contestability and fairness for the markets in the digital sector in general, and for business users and end users of core platform services provided by gatekeepers. Contestability relates to “the ability of undertakings to effectively overcome barriers to entry and expansion and challenge the gatekeeper on the merits of their products and services.[114] (emphasis added)

“Fairness”, in turn, relates to:

…an imbalance between the rights and obligations of business users where the gatekeeper obtains a disproportionate advantage. Market participants … should have the ability to adequately capture the benefits resulting from their innovative or other efforts.[115]

Overall, the obligations placed on the DMA’s designated gatekeepers are intended to lower entry barriers into the incumbents’ core and adjacent markets, thereby making it easier for TSUs to compete. The DMA aims to create new opportunities for TSUs to monetize products and services when on gatekeeper platforms by ensuring increased visibility in search rankings or product listings; enhanced ability to improve products and services through user consent, data portability, and interoperability to key services and access to APIs;[116] and to ensure better terms and conditions.[117]

One European SME lobby group noted:

For innovative SMEs, the DMA will finally create the space and level playing field they need to be competitive … For business users, this would mean being able to offer their services without being forced to comply with unfair terms and conditions forcing them to innovate according to the rules dictated by the gatekeepers.[118]

EU policymakers have frequently cited startups as key beneficiaries of the DMA. At the same time, however, the DMA’s substantive provisions do not meaningfully address TSUs. One possible exception is the act’s the high quantitative thresholds, which effectively exempt most companies—including TSUs—from the obligation to comply with the DMA. Unlike “gatekeepers”, TSUs are not required to share their infrastructure, resources, investments, or competitive advantages with third parties.

Another possible exception is Art. 14, which requires gatekeepers to inform the European Commission of any planned merger or acquisition involving a core platform service—or, indeed, any other services that enable data collection.[119] Art. 14 DMA also requires the Commission to inform national competition authorities of such transactions. The Commission can also claim jurisdiction over such transactions from a national competition authority, regardless of either the transaction value or the target company’s turnover, by triggering the referral mechanism in Art. 22 of the EU Merger Regulation.[120] This includes circumstances in which the Commission “invites” national authorities to make such a referral.

While none of the DMA’s provisions include elements expressly specific to TSUs, Art. 53 DMA establishes that, when evaluating whether the law’s aims have been achieved, the European Commission must assess not only whether regulated markets are contestable and fair, but also the impact “on business users, especially SMEs, and end users”.

The Commission’s impact assessment for the DMA (DMA IA) likewise offered little in the way of specific focus on TSUs, but it did state that “an ex ante measure which explicitly seeks to address unfair contract terms and prevent foreclosure, should provide benefits to a multitude of small businesses and start-up companies, and in turn to their employees and customers”.[121] The DMA IA further opined that SMEs would benefit from the law creating a more “innovative and competitive business environment”. The impact assessment concluded that the benefits flowing to SMEs, startups, and consumers were likely to substantially exceed the measure’s costs of the measure. David J. Teece and Henry J. Kahwaty, however, characterized these conclusions as little more than conjecture, unsupported by academic research or empirical analysis and “inconsistent with many tenets of the literature on the management of innovation”.[122]

For its part, the EU Council credits the DMA with “promoting innovation and a fairer online platform environment for technology start-ups” and “[making] it easier for smaller companies and start-ups to enter the digital market, innovate and compete”.[123] Recital 8 of the DMA offers claims that the regulation will make the economy (in general) and consumers (in particular) better off, even as it explicitly disavows economic efficiency and consumer welfare as relevant factors in delineating permissible and impermissible conduct.[124]

Claims that the DMA will benefit startups more likely reflects politically expedient language, rather than a firm legal commitment or a cognizable antitrust harm. In this way, they are typical of EU policy documents. The Commission’s Annual Reports on Competition Policy, for example, often make broad claims that competition policy has contributed to all or most of the EU’s strategic goals and priorities.[125]

Of course, the DMA could have gone further. Various provisions in the act acknowledge SMEs’ specific interests,[126] despite the lack of provisions that specifically promote those interests. There is likewise a paucity of Commission documents detailing how the DMA would foster the needs of TSUs, as distinct from the interests of other players. [127] While it is asserted that TSUs will benefit from the opportunities the DMA would create, on the question of how much weight their interests should be granted relative to end users, business users, competitors, or consumers, the DMA is silent.

Perhaps the answer can be found in the DMA’s measures of success: the yardsticks used to measure the DMA’s effects could reveal what outcomes the new regulation seeks to achieve.[128] But what makes measuring the DMA’s impact on TSUs difficult is that the act does not dictate any specific market outcome. As Director-General of Competition Olivier Guersent has noted: “DMA obligations create opportunities rather than prescribe market outcomes”.[129] In other words, once gatekeepers comply with their DMA obligations, they are not, in principle, responsible for competitors’ or users’ decisions. Guersent further noted that:

The scale of the impact of DMA will also depend on the take up of the newly created opportunities by market players, and/or the switching by end-users to alternative service providers.[130]

This is consistent with the DMA’s review provision (Art. 53). The article focuses on assessing the law’s impact against its original objectives, which were to ensure contestability and fairness for core-platform-services users and competitors. Alas, improvements in contestestability would need to be measured to be accounted for, and the law ostensibly fails to prescribe any particular outcomes. An additional difficulty in measuring fairness and contestability is that entry and expansion are affected by factors well beyond the gatekeepers’ control—such as, e.g., access to capital or skilled labour.[131]

B. Digital Services Act

The DSA imposes obligations on very large online platforms to actively mitigate illegal activities and the spread of harmful products.[132] The act covers online intermediaries and platforms such as marketplaces, social networks, content-sharing platforms, app stores, and online travel and accommodation platforms. According to the European Commission, the DSA’s goals are to foster innovation, growth, and competitiveness, and to facilitate “the scaling up of smaller platforms, SMEs and start-ups”.[133]

The Commission’s DSA impact assessment (DSA IA) concluded that the regulations “are expected to have a positive impact on competitiveness, innovation and investment in digital services, in particular European Union start-ups and scale-ups proposing platform business models” and that “the legal certainty provided by the intervention would likely encourage investments in European Union companies”.[134] The European Parliament also noted that ex-ante regulatory remedies on the largest online platforms had “the potential to open up markets to new entrants, including SMEs, entrepreneurs, and start-ups, thereby promoting consumer choice and driving innovation beyond what can be achieved by competition law enforcement alone”.[135]

To date, however, it appears that the DSA’s primary benefit for startups is that microenterprises and small enterprises are excluded from compliance obligations.[136] This follows from the DSA IA, which noted that:

Legal burdens [resulting from national regulation of online platforms and online intermediaries at national level] create new barriers in the internal market and lead to high direct and opportunity costs, notably for SMEs, including innovative start-ups and scale-ups. This leads to a competitive advantage for the established very large platforms and digital services, which can more easily tackle higher regulatory compliance costs, and further limits the ability of newcomers to challenge these large digital platforms.[137]

To avoid imposing disproportionate burdens on smaller firms, Art. 15(2) DSA excludes microenterprises and small companies that provide intermediary services from the annual content-moderation reporting obligation. Similarly, Art. 29 DSA exempts these firms from obligations to enable consumers to conclude distance contracts with traders. Art. 19 DSA adds additional exemptions, such as setting up an effective internal-complaint-handling system.[138]

The DSA also extends the exemptions to relatively small enterprises that provide online platforms and have scaled to the point that they no longer qualify as microenterprises or small enterprise under Recommendation 2003/361/EC. Under Art. 19 DSA, such entities continue to benefit from the exemptions for 12 months following the loss of that status (unless they are designated as very large online platforms under Art. 33 DSA). Extending the period during which companies can retain SME status aims to address startups’ concerns about losing protection if they scale up.[139]

As with the DMA, the European Commission is required in its formal evaluation to review scope of DSA obligations on small enterprises and microenterprises.[140] But the DSA goes further than the DMA in requiring the Commission to undertake (by 18 February 2027) a separate and targeted impact assessment of the DSA “on the potential effect of this Regulation on the development and economic growth of small and medium-sized enterprises”.[141] One could therefore argue that the DSA is more sensitive to TSUs’ needs in that it addresses two of their core concerns: compliance costs and the dynamic nature of the transition from startup to scaleup, on the one hand, and requiring the Commission to conduct an SME-specific review, on the other. By contrast, this language is lacking in the DMA.

C. The Data Act

The EU’s Data Act[142] aims to facilitate the seamless transfer of valuable nonpersonal or industrial data within the EU by creating a legal framework on permissible data sharing. It includes several provisions specifically related to SMEs, including microenterprises and startups. This is especially noteworthy, as high-quality data is a critical resource for startups and SMEs to better understand both their own products or services and their customers. The Data Act notes that:

In sectors characterised by the presence of microenterprises, small enterprises and medium-sized enterprises … there is often a lack of digital capacities and skills to collect, analyse and use data, and access is frequently restricted where one actor holds them in the system or due to a lack of interoperability between data, between data services or across borders.[143]

The Data Act also notes that “start-ups, small enterprises … struggle to obtain access to relevant data”.[144] The Data Act therefore aims to “facilitate access to data for those entities, while ensuring that the corresponding obligations are as proportionate as possible to avoid overreach”. [145]

Among the Data Act provisions specific to microenterprises or small enterprises are that the various B2C and B2B data-sharing obligations outlines in Chapter 2[146] do not apply to data generated through the use of connected products manufactured or designed by a microenterprise or small enterprise, or related services provided by such enterprises.[147] Recital 41 clarifies that: “Given the current state of technology, it would be overly burdensome on microenterprises and small enterprises to impose further design obligations in relation to connected products manufactured or designed, or the related services provided, by them”.[148]

As with the DSA, a 12-month grace period is applied to enterprises that have grown from a microenterprise or small enterprise to a medium-sized enterprise, thus allowing them to adjust and prepare before facing market competition for services related to the connected products. This period is not available, however, where a newly medium-sized enterprise has a large investor.

Art. 9, which covers compensation principles for making data available, limits costs for data recipients that are SMEs (as well as not-for-profit research organizations). Such firms and organizations can only be asked to pay for costs directly related to making the relevant data available—i.e., the costs necessary for formatting, dissemination, and storage (per Art. 9(2)(a)). Following Recital 49, this is necessary “to protect SMEs from excessive economic burdens which would make it commercially too difficult for them to develop and run innovative business models”.

Recital 49 also recognizes that there may be “directly related costs” attributable to tailoring data to specific SME requests, such as the costs of necessary technical interfaces, software, and connectivity required on a permanent basis by the data holder.[149] Recital 51 stresses the need for price transparency and requires the data holder to provide sufficiently detailed information to the SME for the calculation of the compensation to ensure that the data holder’s compensation request is reasonable.[150] While 12-month grace period excludes medium-sized entities, thereby benefiting startups and scaleups, the provisions concerning costs do also cover medium-sized enterprises.

The Data Act also imports the “gatekeeper” notion from the DMA and excludes designated gatekeepers from benefiting from the act’s data-access rights on the basis that “[s]uch inclusion would also likely limit the benefits of this Regulation for SMEs, linked to the fairness of the distribution of data value across market actors”.[151]

Art. 15 Data Act, concerning entities with an “exceptional need to use data”, allows public-sector and certain European Union entities (the Commission, European Central Bank, and various EU bodies) to access data when performing their duties in public-emergency situations. Under Art. 20(1)(a), access to such data is generally to be provided free of charge. The Data Act acknowledges that these data-access provisions create a burden on businesses, including microenterprises and small enterprises. Thus, the obligation to provide data in public-emergency situations is limited to those circumstances in which public-sector or EU bodies have exhausted all other means at their disposal to obtain such data “in a timely and effective manner under equivalent conditions” (Art. 15(1)(b)(ii)) and Recital 63).

Art. 20(2) Data Act allows for limited compensation in circumstances not covered by Art. 20(1)(a), but for most entities, this would apply only for nonpersonal data and where technical and organizational costs were incurred to comply with the request—e.g., the costs of anonymization, pseudonymization, aggregation, and/or technical adaptation, plus a “reasonable margin”. Art. 20(3) does, however, note that the fair-compensation requirements “shall also apply where a microenterprise and small enterprise claims compensation for making data available” to public-sector or EU bodies, as the obligation to provide data “might constitute a considerable burden” for these smaller entities.[152]

In addition, the Data Act also aims to create a framework for customers to effectively switch between different cloud-services providers. On the latter point, the impact assessment for the Data Act Impact (DA IA) notes that: “SMEs and start-ups would be the greatest beneficiaries from an intervention on cloud switching, as users of cloud and edge services but also as providers of such services”.[153] This is, the DA IA asserts, because regulatory intervention to facilitate cloud switching across the EU would most benefit high-tech SMEs and startups, given the technical problems associated with a lack of standardization (e.g., application portability). In addition, according to the DA IA, “the smaller, often EU-native providers of cloud and edge services will benefit most” from intervention on cloud switching, because they generally lack the resources to move their digital assets to new platforms, as these often use proprietary standards.[154]

Chapter IV of the Data Act makes certain contract terms related to data access unenforceable. Among the areas where this would apply are terms governing contractual liability and remedies for breach or termination of data-related obligations “unilaterally” imposed by one of the parties—e.g., terms that exclude or limit the liability or the remedies, or that grant the exclusive right to determine whether the data supplied data conform with the terms of the contract. As explained in Recital 58, the Data Act seeks to prevent the exploitation of contractual imbalances that “harm all enterprises without a meaningful ability to negotiate the conditions for access to data, and which may have no choice but to accept take-it-or-leave-it contractual terms”.[155]

Recital 111 calls on the Commission to help enterprises draft and negotiate contracts and develop nonbinding model contractual terms, which “should be primarily a practical tool to help in particular SMEs to conclude a contract”.[156] This provision stems from the public-consultation finding that “microenterprises and SMEs ranked ‘unfair contract terms’ second amongst the main difficulties for companies when requesting access to data” and that “contractual imbalances between data holders and data requestors affect, in particular, SMEs and start-ups”.[157]

The scope of the Data Act’s SME provisions is based on the European Parliament’s SME Recommendation definition. A lingering question is whether the rights and obligations contained within the Data Act would be materially different if the SME Recommendation included a specific definition of startup, as called for by various EU bodies. TSUs clearly have different needs than other SMEs, including access to high-quality data; their high levels of collaboration, open systems, and interoperability; and the expectation that continued rapid growth will require significant investment. The Data Act does include provisions to address some of these issues—e.g., excluding microenterprises and small enterprises from data-sharing obligations, minimizing the cost of acquiring data, and providing a 12-month grace period after a microenterprise or small enterprise grows to a medium-sized enterprise. But whether these are provisions are sufficient is another matter altogether.

Of course, the Data Act should be seen in the broader context of the EU’s 2020 European Strategy for Data[158], of which it is one pillar, as is the Data Governance Act. The Strategy for Data recognizes that data “is an essential resource for start-ups and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in developing products and services”, given existing market imbalances in firms’ access to and use of data. The strategy does provide some relief for TSUs, most notably in making more public data accessible.

Interestingly, the European Parliament’s recent calls for action to support European SMEs do not focus on the Digital Package. For example, in discussing market access and competition, the Parliament did not touch on digital market competition per se, but noted that it was “of the view that regulatory mechanisms must adapt to and evolve in sync with technological advancements and market shifts to uphold competitiveness and innovation, especially in relation to European start-ups”.[159] The only notable reference was one that called on the Commission to “ensure the harmonised and effective implementation of recent digital regulations”. The Parliament also called on the Commission and member states to foster a European-led ecosystem of marketplaces for nonpersonal data.[160]

D. The Artificial Intelligence Act

The EU’s AI Act[161] applies obligations to providers and users of artificial-intelligence systems, with the goal of balancing AI innovation with ensuring that AI systems are ethical and trustworthy, and that they respect EU values and fundamental rights. The act prohibits the implementation and use of AI systems that present unacceptable risks; permits the use of AI systems that present high risks, subject to compliance with specific requirements and obligations; and allows the use of limited-risk systems subject to transparency obligations. By establishing a regulatory framework for AI systems, the AI Act aims to provide legal certainty and enhance the deployment of trustworthy AI solutions.

Given their important role in the European innovation ecosystem, the AI Act aims to safeguard the interests of startups and SMEs.[162] As the Draghi Report notes, between 2008 and 2021, there were 147 “unicorns” founded in Europe—i.e., startups valued at more than $1 billion. But of these, 40 relocated their headquarters abroad, with the vast majority moving to the United States.[163] The report found that “the lack of growth potential in Europe is particularly relevant for tech-based innovative ventures, and even more so for deep tech ones”, adding that 61% of total global funding for AI startups goes to U.S. companies, 17% to those in China, and just 6% to those in the EU.[164]

The Commission’s impact assessment for the AI Act (AI IA) offers several salient points relevant to these issues. It recognizes, for example, that “without a clear legal framework, start-ups and developers working in this field will not be able to attract the required investments. Similarly, without certainty on applicable rules and clear common standards on what is required for a trustworthy, safe and lawful AI, developers and providers of AI systems and other innovators are less likely to pursue developments in this field”.[165] In particular, the AI Act highlighted the fragmented regulatory landscape across the AI single market as a key problem. The impact assessment noted that:

The impact of this increasing fragmentation is disproportionately affecting small companies. This is because large companies, especially global ones, can spread the additional costs for operating across an increasingly fragmented single market over their larger sales, especially when they already have established a dominant position in some markets. Meanwhile, SMEs and start-ups which do not have the market power or the same resources may be deterred from entering the markets of other Member States and thus fail to profit from the single market. This problem is further exacerbated since big tech players have not only a technological advantage but also exclusive access to large and quality data necessary for the development of AI.[166]

The AI Act creates compliance burdens, including for TSUs, but it also contains measures and protections intended to benefit TSUs.[167] The act’s TSU-specific provisions include:

  • Recital 73 notes the importance of taking the interests of small-scale providers and users of AI systems into account, with an emphasis on capacity building and setting appropriate conformity-assessment fees. For example, given translation-related costs, the recital proposes that EU member states should chose documentation language “which is broadly understood by the largest possible number of cross-border users”.
  • The act promotes regulatory sandboxing schemes to experiment with various AI applications. Recital 72 states: “Regulatory sandboxes should be widely available throughout the Union, and particular attention should be given to their accessibility for SMEs, including startups”. Recital 72 also notes that “The objectives of the regulatory sandboxes should be to foster AI innovation by establishing a controlled experimentation and testing environment in the development and pre-marketing phase with a view to ensuring compliance of the innovative AI systems with this Regulation and other relevant Union and Member States legislation; to enhance legal certainty for innovators and the competent authorities’ oversight and understanding of the opportunities, emerging risks and the impacts of AI use … and to accelerate access to markets, including by removing barriers for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and start-ups”.
  • 55 requires member states to grant eligible small-scale providers and startups priority access to AI regulatory sandboxes. It also promotes applying the AI Act in ways tailored to the needs of small-scale providers and users. These would include support for capacity-building efforts; facilitating networking among small providers, users, and other innovators; and encouraging SMEs to participate in the development of standards. Finally, it asserts that small-scale providers’ specific interests and needs should be considered when a relevant national body sets fees for conformity assessment, reducing those fees proportionately to the TSU’s size and the size of the market.
  • The Council and Parliament agreed to a new Art. 55a that would permit certain derogations for specific operators—notably, that qualifying microenterprises (as defined by SME Recommendation 2003/361) may fulfil elements of the quality-management system under Art. 17 in order “to ensure proportionality considering the very small size of some operators regarding costs of innovation”.[168] The article directs the Commission to develop guidelines specifying how microenterprises could fulfil the elements of the quality-management system in this simplified manner. In developing guidelines, the article directs the Commission to consider microenterprises’ needs without affecting the overall level of protection provided by the AI Act or the compliance requirements for high-risk AI systems.
  • 71 AI Act requires EU member states to set out rules on penalties—including administrative fines—for infringement of the act, as well as to ensure that they are properly and effectively implemented. Art. 71 notes that such penalties must be effective, proportionate, and dissuasive, but that such penalties “shall take into account the interests of SMEs including start-ups and their economic viability”.
  • Finally, under new Art. 34a, the relevant “notified bodies” responsible for administering the AI Act at the national level—such as verifying conformity by high-risk AI systems—should avoid imposing unnecessary burdens on providers. This is to include taking due account of their size, the sector in which they operate, their structure, and the degree of complexity of the AI system in question. It further establishes that “[p]articular attention shall be paid to minimising administrative burdens and compliance costs for micro and small enterprises as defined in Commission Recommendation 2003/361/EC”.

The Commission’s January 2024 Communication on Boosting Startups and Innovation in Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence[169] offered a broader TSU policy framework around the AI Act, laying out the “actions and investments in 2024 that will help startups and industries in Europe fulfil their potential of becoming global frontrunners in trustworthy advanced AI models, systems and applications”. The communication focused on six principal areas of action:

  1. To facilitate access to European supercomputers that can accelerate the training of AI models (“AI factories”) to “bolster the leadership of European startups and stimulate the emergence of competitive AI ecosystems in the Union”.[170] This would include access to data storage, given the prohibitive expense of large commercial cloud-computing resources;
  2. To facilitate access to high-quality data, leveraging the Data Act and accelerating the development of Common European Data Spaces;
  3. To support trustworthy AI solutions;
  4. To strengthen the EU’s generative-AI talent pool;
  5. To promote the widespread uptake and use of generative-AI applications, notably by public bodies; and
  6. To encourage public and private investment in AI startups and scaleups, leveraging existing instruments like the European Innovation Council and InvestEU that are designed to de-risk and crowd-in private investors.

The framework’s objective is to ensure sufficient investment in the training of AI models, to accelerate the deployment of advanced AI solutions, and to scale up European TSU activities in ways that would enable them to become globally competitive. The communication stresses the Commission’s desire to empower AI TSUs to compete “confidently” on the global stage.[171]

The Commission also published a staff working document (SWD) that sets out an EU initiative on the next technological transition on Web 4.0 and virtual worlds.[172] The SWD notes that: “Web 4.0 SMEs and start-ups in the EU are also faced with a fragmented ecosystem, which leads to challenges in establishing collaborations, sharing knowledge and best practices within the sector. The lack of awareness and visibility of actors along the value chains is a major issue for cooperation. This hinders innovation and leads to other difficulties such as finding the right partner to set up consortia for calls, an issue particularly relevant for securing EU funding. Addressing these issues would build stronger collaborations across hubs and borders”.[173]

The framework proposes a broad range of measures to support AI startups and innovation, including a proposal to provide privileged access to the network of European high-performance computers, reconfigured for rapid machine learning and training large general-purpose AI models. It also envisions the launch of AI factories to support the development, testing, evaluation, and validation of large-scale AI models. These facilities would serve as one-stop shops for AI startups to create advanced AI models and applications.

In addition, the framework proposes that financial support will be provided through EU instruments like Horizon Europe and the Digital Europe Programme, mobilizing about €4 billion in additional public and private investment by 2027. It received a cautious welcome from the EU startup community.[174]

IV. The EU’s Digital Package: What’s in It for Tech Startups?

What we notice in reviewing the EU’s Digital Package is a very mixed bag for TSU interests—bearing in mind that what TSUs need, at a bare minimum, is a reduced compliance burden. This may explain why TSU lobbyists do not generally focus on the recent package of European digital regulations, nor have they often found it necessary to touch on topics related to those regulations.

A. The Digital Markets Act

While the specific interests of SMEs are acknowledged in various parts of the DMA, there are no provisions that would specifically promote the interests of SMEs, let alone startups or entrepreneurs. As discussed in Section III, the principal provision related to designated gatekeepers’ obligations vis-à-vis TSUs is laid down in Art. 14 DMA, though it remains unclear whether that provision will have the intended effect of encouraging the emergence and expansion of TSUs.

Pursuant to Art. 14 DMA, designated gatekeepers must inform the Commission of any intended merger or acquisition involving a gatekeeper’s core platform services—or, indeed, any other services in the digital sector or that entail the collection of data. Art. 14 DMA’s obligation to furnish information to the Commission, coupled with the requirement that the Commission inform national competition authorities of such transactions, effectively allows the EU to seek jurisdiction over the merger no matter how low the transaction value or turnover of the target company. The obligation is enabled through a broad reading of the referral mechanism in Art. 22 of the EU Merger Regulation,[175] under which the Commission can “invite” national authorities to refer mergers with a national scope to the Commission’s jurisdiction.

Assuming Art. 14 remains in place following the European Court of Justice’s Illumina/Grail ruling, which curtailed the Commission’s ability to review mergers that fall below the national-notification thresholds,[176] the Commission’s 2021 Guidance on Art. 22 offers insight into how it might approach a review initiated under Art. 14 DMA.

The Commission’s guidance notes an increase in acquisitions of companies that generate little or no turnover, which it asserts “appear[s] particularly significant in the digital economy, where services regularly launch with the aim of building up a significant user base and/or commercially valuable data inventories, before seeking to monetise the business”.[177] The Commission also provided an illustrative list of cases that will normally be appropriate for a referral under Art. 22, including cases where the undertaking “is a start-up or recent entrant with significant competitive potential that has yet to develop or implement a business model generating significant revenues (or is still in the initial phase of implementing such business model)”. Other relevant considerations include circumstances in which the target is an important innovator; is conducting potentially important research; provides key inputs for others; or has access to significant assets, such as data or intellectual-property rights.[178]

The DMA’s transaction-notification requirements should be seen in the context of concerns about a supposed trend toward rising concentration in digital markets and active acquisition strategies by larger digital players that are alleged to include seeking to buy “promising, innovative start-ups”. As Viktoria H.S.E. Robertson has noted, “[w]hile many observers have dubbed these ‘killer acquisitions’, these are often more like zombie acquisitions: the innovation of the start-up is not killed off, but incorporated into the powerful digital platform”.[179]

In any event, some commentators have speculated that, given these new powers, the Commission may be expected to review more mergers in the digital sector.[180] Indeed, the Commission noted in its SWD on the EU initiative on Web 4.0 and virtual worlds that:

While there are many SMEs and start-ups that are developing innovative and creative technology, the global market is dominated by a small number of large companies accountable for most developments. It is quite common practice that SMEs and start-ups in the EU are acquired by non-EU bigger players, formally removing EU companies from the overall ecosystem. This phenomenon prevents companies from growing and scaling-up in the EU and further exacerbates the challenges linked to accessing funding.[181]

Art. 14 DMA would thus appear intended to limit acquisitions by gatekeepers, in a bid to encourage the independent expansion of homegrown (European) TSUs. This approach could backfire, however, and end up stifling the same TSUs it aims to foster. For example, in the context of TSUs active in the AI space, Tomada suggests that mergers and acquisition between TSUs and larger players should be encouraged “so that the established businesses can buy out or absorb the small-business innovative activity thereby taking over all related conformity requirements and responsibilities”.[182]

It has also been suggested that the anticompetitive threat of so-called “killer acquisitions” in digital markets has been greatly exaggerated[183] and, furthermore, that such transactions are often procompetitive.[184] Recent policy statements indicate that the Commission holds a different view.[185]

Emblematic of the tension between startups’ exit strategies and proposals for an enhanced merger-control regime was a 2020 French parliamentary debate to consider amendments to the French competition act’s merger-review provisions.[186] The amendments would have granted power to the French competition authority to designate certain large players as being of “structural” importance. Thereafter, such players would be required to inform the authority of any planned transaction, including those below existing merger thresholds. In the event the authority were to investigate a transaction and express serious concerns, while there would still be an in-depth review, a presumption of anticompetitive effect would apply. The company would have had the burden to disprove the presumption and demonstrate the procompetitive nature of the transaction. The law did not come into effect only because it was superseded by the DMA.

The French parliamentary debate offers some insight into the thinking that underpins the desire to have gatekeeper-like firms undergo closer scrutiny of their transactions. During the debate, Cédric O—the secretary of state to the minister of the economy responsible for digital affairs—discussed broader concerns related to startups.[187] He bemoaned the lack of startup growth and investment in Europe, compared to the United States and China, and acknowledged that much was left to be done for startups to be able to achieve. O further argued that France and Europe needed to create the fiscal, regulatory, and investment conditions that would allow new champions to emerge: “our very own Google and Facebook”.[188] The startup question was thus considered an issue of economic sovereignty for the French government. This was the context to grant the competition authority more powers to prohibit “predatory acquisitions” by “certain platforms”—i.e., non-European, mostly U.S.-based firms.

The secretary argued that a key question for French startups was their market-exit strategy, noting that 90% of startups in the digital economy were ultimately subject to takeovers. He recognized that, if Europe’s global ecosystem was to grow, there was little choice in the short and medium term but see digital startups bought by foreign buyers, partly because large European incumbents are rarely acquisitive. O noted that, while many regret that French startups are often bought out by U.S. companies, he also regretted that he could not force French companies to buy them back. O also suggested encouraging these startups to be listed on the stock exchange.

The French government proposed a bill to limit French startups’ exit strategies, knowing that acquisition is one of the principal methods upon which startups and their investors rely.[189] Indeed, many TSUs and startups are created with the specific goal of being acquired by an incumbent.[190] Yet the French government did not propose how to fill the investment gap that would be created if the usual acquirers were prohibited or disincentivized from offering an exit strategy.

The EU’s approach with the DMA appears to hinge on the same questionable assumption—namely, that inhibiting acquisitions of EU startups is the optimal strategy to nurture their growth. This stance, however, risks eliminating a crucial exit strategy for these startups, which could ultimately undermine their ability to thrive in the competitive global market.

The Draghi Report underscores a pressing requirement for EU TSUs: increased investment and better access to capital. By restricting acquisition opportunities, the DMA might inadvertently stifle investor interest and diminish the potential for these startups to scale and become European TSUs. Instead of fostering a robust ecosystem for innovation, such regulations could lead to the opposite outcome—reducing the number of successful European TSUs capable of competing on a global scale. In this sense, it seems that the DMA is more concerned with hobbling gatekeepers than enhancing TSUs.[191]

B. The Digital Services Act

The DSA does not contain substantive TSU-focused provisions. Indeed, the European Parliament argued for specific measures to protect smaller players and proposed that:

The DSA should put forward a proposal for a new separate instrument aiming at ensuring that the systemic role of specific online platforms will not endanger the internal market by unfairly excluding innovative new entrants, including SMEs, entrepreneurs and start-ups, thereby reducing consumer choice.[192]

This was not, however, taken up in the final text.

The DSA’s main TSU focus is to shield microenterprises and small enterprises from disproportionate compliance burdens—such as, e.g., the annual content-moderation reporting obligation for intermediary service providers and online-platform service providers. There is consensus that startups and their investors must have the ability to assess regulatory costs, given that such costs can be prohibitive, with legal risks having “a chilling effect on investment and [ability to] dissuade businesses from expanding and growing in the single market-ups”.[193]

The DSA extends these exemptions to TSUs that have scaled up beyond the definition of microenterprise or small enterprise for 12 months following the loss of that status, thereby acknowledging TSUs’ tendency for “hyper-growth”. It is likely that a formal TSU definition would help the Commission to provide even more responsive protections for scaling TSU, which might include an exemption beyond the 12-month time horizon. It might therefore seem that the DSA is a step in the right direction, although the lack of focus or legal definition continues to hamper TSU interests.

Moreover, it has been argued that “The DSA still operates with complex compliance obligations that will heighten entry barriers in comparison with other parts of the world” and that the additional operational costs imposed by European digital regulations could result in TSUs choosing non-EU states to establish their business (an “innovation-cooling effect”), thereby depriving European users of the latest digital solutions and platform services. [194]

C. The Data Act

Like the DSA, the Data Act contains several provisions specifically responsive to TSU needs, including reduced compliance and cost burdens on SMEs, microenterprises, and startups. This includes TSUs, as data recipients would only be asked to pay data providers for costs directly related to making data available.

The Data Act offers further protections to TSUs as data providers, making contractual terms unilaterally imposed on them unenforceable. This provision follows in the wake of SMEs and microenterprises ranking unfair contract terms as second among the major difficulties they face when requesting access to data. The Data Act also excludes SMEs from various data-sharing obligations considered overly burdensome. In addition, TSUs are entitled to fair compensation if obliged to provide data to certain public bodies under the “exceptional need” provision (whereas other data providers receive only limited compensation). While this is welcome, it is notable that, as France Digitale member Mirakl, noted: “every new digital legislation is costing us a million euro, obliging us to do a trade-off between compliance and innovation”.[195]

As with the DSA, TSUs remain covered by the SME definition for 12 months after they grow beyond that category. But as France Digitale noted, TSUs’ tendency for “hyper-growth” means that they can quickly find themselves facing the requirement to abide by the same standards as larger established companies without having the capacity or maturity to manage such compliance burdens.[196]

D. The AI Act

In its provisions prioritizing TSUs’ access to national AI sandboxes, building AI capacity, requiring sensitivity to TSU interests when codes of conduct are developed, and showing sensitivity to costs and fine levels, the AI Act goes well beyond the other acts in the EU’s Digital Package. The AI Act permits certain derogations or simplifications for qualifying TSUs and reduces conformity-assessment fees for small-scale providers. Administrative bodies are asked to avoid placing unnecessary burdens on TSUs, and any penalties imposed must consider TSUs’ interests and their economic viability (although the latter merely reflects the principle of proportionality).

Yet the AI Act is not devoid of criticism. Tomada believes the act’s regulatory-compliance requirements for running high-risk AI systems will pose particular challenges for TSUs, and that “both the administrative and organisational costs and the time required to undergo the conformity assessment procedure may hinder the process from ideation to deployment, and this can be particularly challenging for small scale businesses”.[197] Cristiano Codagnone and Linda Weigl posit that the AI Act will create more obstacles for innovative SMEs than for large incumbents. [198] They highlight “the impression that there is an excessive reliance on regulation without a thorough appraisal of the costs imposed on businesses to deal with administrative burden, conformity tests, and audits” on TSUs.[199]

Tomada also notes that the act’s provisions to support TSUs “may not be sufficient for comprehensively supporting the business in undergoing the entire cumbersome procedure that will enable its product or service to reach the market”.[200]  In addition, a considerable penalty or risk thereof may well cause the business to fail or even impede their access to the market”.[201] She predicts that the act’s failure to address a range of TSU-specific concerns will likely mean that “small-businesses will likely keep being discouraged from deploying their AI innovations in light of the risks of considerable penalties and liability they still may face”.[202]

The EU’s AI Continent Action Plan, published in April 2025, recognizes the need to simplify rules to enable startups to scale and grow—especially the AI Act.[203] Among the measures proposed are an AI Act Service Desk, specifically to serve the needs of smaller AI-solution providers and deployers by offering practical advice to understand and comply with the act;[204] a public consultation to identify areas where regulatory uncertainty might hinder the development and adoption of AI, particularly for smaller companies;[205] and other simplification measures meant to streamline procedures and facilitate compliance (e.g., templates, webinars, guidance, etc.).[206]

It is apparent from these measures that the Commission is aware that compliance with the AI Act may divert significant resources from TSUs and stifle their development. Whether the simplification measures contemplated in the AI Continent Action Plan will ultimately work is an open question. But the fact that the Commission is already seeking to ease the regulatory burden on startups less than a year after the act’s adoption suggests that EU regulators are not only aware of this burden but acknowledge its potentially serious impact. Conversely, it also suggests that these tradeoffs are given insufficient consideration during the inception stages of major European regulations.

V. Conclusion

This white paper explores whether the EU’s recent package of digital regulations responds to TSUs’ needs. The answer appears to be that there is a high level of heterogeneity, with some acts attempting to address TSU-specific concerns and others barely acknowledging them.

One aspect that the acts in the Digital Package have in common is that they all generally provide some carveouts for SMEs to assuage their regulatory and compliance burdens. These range from the DMA only applying to large “gatekeepers” to the more comprehensive pro-startup provisions laid down in the AI Act. Of course, the more targeted a regulation is to a particular sector or sectors—as in the case of the AI Act—the easier it is for the European Commission to develop provisions that support TSUs.

Despite the various TSU-related carveouts, European policy regarding startups and innovation more generally continue to be undermined by the Digital Package’s many contradictions. These both hinder coherent efforts to support SMEs and increase compliance burdens for TSUs and other firms, all of which may harm competition, investment, and innovation. Likewise, despite some attempts in the Digital Package to acknowledge TSUs’ needs, there remain several areas where the EU is failing, and where adjustments will be necessary to address the concerns outlined in the Draghi and Letta reports.

First, the need for an agreed-upon legal definition of TSUs is obvious. This would allow for tailored exceptions to be developed that support TSUs’ specific needs. This is not a new concern, nor can it necessarily be set out in sectoral regulation; rather, it may deserve its own instrument.

Second, there is a need for the European Commission to more rigorously consider the specific perspectives and structural constraints of TSUs in its impact assessments. The impact assessments supporting the Digital Package are highly inconsistent in their focus on TSUs. Teece and Kahwaty, for instance, argue that the DMA IA’s conclusion that the benefits to SMEs, startups and consumers would substantially outweigh the costs was largely speculative.[207] This may reflect the fact that TSU interests are not always a genuine priority, despite frequent policy statements claiming otherwise.

Third, the TSU exemptions or exceptions across the Digital Package are often timid and fail to fully address TSUs’ core concerns, such as the distraction and cost compliance burdens created by the EU’s complex matrix of digital regulation. In addition, where primary legislation may not be the best vehicle to address other concerns—such as capacity-building support or easier access to procurement markets—they should be provided via flanking measures, as we see in the AI context. This should happen as a matter of course, and in parallel to the development of the regulatory framework.

Finally, there is a case to be made that TSU growth is a symptom, rather than the cause, of thriving tech industries. If true, this constitutes a further indictment of the impact assessments that led up to key pieces of European legislation. These assessments often appear to overlook important tradeoffs inherent to economic regulation, such as reduced investment and increased barriers to entry. These obstacles undermine not just the TSUs that policymakers otherwise seek to protect but also the broader industry, where many players of varying sized may be important sources of competition or innovation.

In conclusion, while European policymakers have consistently voiced a strong commitment to fostering the growth of TSUs, the design of the EU’s Digital Package—comprising the DMA, DSA, Data Act, and AI Act—demonstrates a mixed and often insufficient consideration for their specific needs and constraints. This lack of tailored attention is compounded by evidence from the Draghi Report and academic literature clearly demonstrating that misguided or excessive regulations can impose significant compliance burdens and have a chilling effect on investment. As seen in the experience with the GDPR, this limits startups’ ability to scale and hinders further innovation.

Among the crucial insights highlighted by the Draghi Report was one often overlooked in the policy focus on small companies: size matters for performance, innovation, and ultimately, European competitiveness. To the extent that the Digital Package imposes burdens on large companies and, through compliance costs and potentially restricted exit opportunities, increases the hurdles for tech startups to grow beyond a certain size, it could inadvertently run counter to the stated goal of fostering competitive European firms and reclaiming a leading position at the technological frontier.

[1] See, e.g., Frederik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, & Oscar du Roy, Keeping Up with the US: Why Europe’s Productivity Is Falling Behind, Eur. Cent. Int. Polit. Econ. (2024), at 1, https://ecipe.org/publications/keeping-up-with-the-us-why-europes-productivity-is-falling-behind. (According to the report, “[t]he European Union stands at a crossroads. For decades, the EU’s productivity growth has consistently lagged the United States, leading to slower growth in living standards and decline in global economic power”. This is due to lower R&D investment, weaker intangible capital growth, and slower business dynamism, which together hinder innovation and technology adoption. Additionally, despite being more open to trade, the EU attracts less foreign direct investment, which has limited access to global technological advancements).

[2] Mario Draghi, The Future of European Competitiveness: A Competitiveness Strategy for Europe — Part A, Eur. Comm’n (9 September 2024), at 12, https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/97e481fd-2dc3-412d-be4c-f152a8232961_en. (“Yet growth in the EU has been slowing, driven by weakening productivity growth, calling into question Europe’s ability to meet its ambitions… EU economic growth has been persistently slower than in the US over the past two decades, while China has been rapidly catching up. The EU-US gap in the level of GDP at 2015 prices has gradually widened from slightly more than 15% in 2002 to 30% in 2023, while on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis a gap of 12% has emerged”.)

[3] Id.

[4] Id.

[5] Id., at 5.

[6] A Competitiveness Compass for the EU, Eur. Comm’n (29 January 2025),  https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/10017eb1-4722-4333-add2-e0ed18105a34_en. See also, e.g., Ursula von der Leyen, Opening Speech by President von der Leyen at the European Innovation Council Launch Ceremony, Eur. Comm’n (24 March 2021), https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/fr/speech_21_1241. (Von der Leyen described the rationale of the European Innovation Council: “With our European Innovation Council, we make EUR 10 billion available until 2027: We fund small- and medium-size companies with high risk but also with high potential. We support innovative researchers that have ideas for the next breakthrough technology. And we offer coaching, matchmaking and support them to set up a business. The European Innovation Council is also part of our answer to the equity-funding gap in Europe. Currently, many European start-ups cannot find the risk capital they need. Experts estimate that this funding gap is as large as EUR 70 billion. Our new EIC Fund is a good start. It alone brings EUR 3 billion to the table. With the EIC Fund, the Commission is for the first time investing directly in start-ups and SMEs”).

[7] Kai Zenner, J. Scott Marcus, & Kamil Sekut, A Dataset on EU Legislation for the Digital World, Bruegel (16 November 2023) https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/dataset-eu-legislation-digital-world.

[8] A Europe Fit for the Digital Age, Eur. Comm’n (2024) ?https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age_en.

[9] See Anne Marie Knott & Carl Vieregger, Reconciling the Firm Size and Innovation Puzzle, 31 Org. Sci. 477 (2020). (Finding that “both R&D spending and R&D productivity increase with firm size. Thus, large firms seem to be acting rationally in their increasing R&D investments, as one would expect”). The classic study of the subject remains Joseph A. Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (1942).

[10] See Robert Armstrong & Ethan Wu, What Big Tech Antitrust Gets Wrong: An Interview with Herbert Hovenkamp, Financ. Times (19 January 2024) https://www.ft.com/content/4eec8bc3-c892-4704-ae66-a4432c6d4fd7. (“With Big Tech, we’re looking at probably the most productive part of the economy. The rate of innovation is high. They spend a lot of money on R&D. They are among the largest patent holders”). For instance, in 2023, Amazon topped the list of R&D spending at $85.6 billion, followed by Alphabet (Google) at $45.4 billion, Meta at $38.5 billion, Apple at $29.9 billion, and Microsoft at $27.2 billion. Brian Buntz, Top 30 R&D Leaders of 2023: Big Tech Spending Hits new Heights, R&D World (17 June 2024), https://www.rdworldonline.com/top-30-rd-spending-leaders-2023-big-tech-firms-hit-new-heights.

[11] Knott & Vieregger, supra note 9.

[12] Geoffrey A. Manne, Samuel Bowman, & Dirk Auer, Technology Mergers and the Market for Corporate Control, 86 Mo. L. Rev. 1048, 1066-67 (2022).

[13] Id., at 1055.

[14] See, e.g., Jacques Cre?mer, Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye, & Heike Schweitzer, Competition Policy For The Digital Era Final Report, Eur. Union (2019), at 117-118, https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/21dc175c-7b76-11e9-9f05-01aa75ed71a1/language-en.

[15] See, e.g., Geoffrey A. Manne, Lazar Radic, & Dirk Auer, Regulate for What? A Closer Look at the Rationale and Goals of Digital Competition Regulations, 22 Berkeley Bus. L.J. 201 (2025).

[16] See, e.g., Sara Guidi, Innovation Commons for the Data Economy, 2 Dig. Soc. 30, 31 (2023).

[17] For example, Arts 5(7) and (8) DMA restrict gatekeepers from tying or bundling their core platform services with other services; Art 6(5) DMA prohibits gatekeepers from favouring their own products or services.

[18] Dirk Auer, The Broken Promises of Europe’s Digital Regulation, Truth Mark. (12 March 2024), https://truthonthemarket.com/2024/03/12/the-broken-promises-of-europes-digital-regulation.

[19] Manne et al., supra note 15, at 249 et seq.

[20] Draghi, supra note 2, at 7, 12, 30, 33.

[21] Id., at 30.

[22] Id.

[23] Id., at 33.

[24] Id., at 69. (“EU regulation imposes a proportionally higher burden on SMEs and small mid-caps than on larger companies, yet the EU lacks a framework to assess these costs. About 80% of Commission Work Programme items are relevant to SMEs but only around half of impact assessments substantially focused on these companies. The EU also lacks a commonly agreed definition of small mid-caps and readily available statistical data”).

[25] Enrico Letta, Much More Than a Market, Eur. Council (Apr. 2024), available at https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/ny3j24sm/much-more-than-a-market-report-by-enrico-letta.pdf.

 

[26] For a full exploration, see European Startup Scoreboard – Feasibility Study 4, Eur. Comm’n (2023), https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/70fe2318-fb72-11ed-a05c-01aa75ed71a1/language-en (“Feasibility Study”).

[27] Mario Draghi, The Future of European Competitiveness: A Competitiveness Strategy for Europe — Part B, Eur. Comm’n (9 September 2024), at 232, 242, 247, available at https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/ec1409c1-d4b4-4882-8bdd-3519f86bbb92_en?filename=The%20future%20of%20European%20competitiveness_%20In-depth%20analysis%20and%20recommendations_0.pdf (e.g., the proposals to improve the innovation ecosystem begin with “a better financing environment for disruptive innovation, start-ups and scale-ups”).

[28] Joint Motion for a Resolution on the State of the SME Union (RC-B9-0346/2023), Eur. Parl. (2023) https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/RC-9-2023-0346_EN.html.

[29] European Innovation Council (EIC) Accelerator, Eur. Comm’n, https://eic.ec.europa.eu/eic-accelerator_en (last visited 28 May 2025).

[30] Commission Recommendation 2003/361/EC, 2003 O.J. (L 124), Eur. Comm’n (2003), at 36, available at https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2003:124:0036:0041:en:PDF.

[31] See also Letizia Tomada, Start-Ups and the Proposed EU AI Act: Bridges or Barriers in the Path from Invention to Innovation?, 13 J. Intell. Prop. Info. Tech. & Elec. Com. L. 53 (2022). (The Commission, presumably aware of this conceptual shortcoming, recently launched an initiative to harmonize definitions related to startups, scaleups and deep-tech innovation, publishing the results of its Feasibility Study for a European Startup Scoreboard in 2023. The feasibility study found that certain key concepts in the startup ecosystem lack definitional coherence and “…the only concepts present in all categories of sources are startups and scale-ups”). See European Commission, supra note 26.

[32] For example, see Commission Communication on A New European Innovation Agenda, COM(2022) 332 final, Eur. Comm’n (5 July 2022), available at https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52022DC0332; see also Commission Staff Working Document Accompanying the Commission Communication on A New European Innovation Agenda, Eur. Comm’n (5 July 2022) at 187, available at https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52022SC0187; Spain Drives Technological Entrepreneurship Leadership in Europe, La Moncloa (19 October 2023), https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/lang/en/gobierno/news/Paginas/2023/20231019_esna-meeting.aspx; European Parliament Resolution of 14 December 2023 on Increasing Innovation, Industrial and Technological Competitiveness Through a Favourable Environment for Start-Ups and Scale-Ups (2023/2110(INI)), Eur. Parl. (14 December 2023), Points 1-4, available at https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2023-0480_EN.html.

[33] EU 2024-2029: For a Competitive, Innovative and Sustainable Europe, France Digitale’s Manifesto for the 2024 European Elections, France Digitale (December 2023), available at https://media.francedigitale.org/app/uploads/prod/2023/11/28111529/France-Digitale-2024-European-Manifesto-web-1.pdf.

[34] European Tech Voices, Stripe (July 2022), available at https://assets.ctfassets.net/fzn2n1nzq965/as5AW9rw46xEysdTl9Ie8/19b71550059812fcbe2a78b2c2b438f7/Stripe-European_Tech_Voices.pdf.

[35] France Digitale, supra note 33.

[36] Id.

[37] Id.

[38] Id.

[39] Parliament’s SME Resolution, supra note 28, at paras. (i), 48 and 49.

[40] Parliament’s Innovation Resolution, supra note 32,  para 36.

[41] Id., para 38.

[42] Draghi, supra note 27.

[43] Draghi, supra note 2, at 6. (“The problem is not that Europe lacks ideas or ambition. We have many talented researchers and entrepreneurs filing patents. But innovation is blocked at the next stage: we are failing to translate innovation into commercialisation, and innovative companies that want to scale up in Europe are hindered at every stage by inconsistent and restrictive regulations”).

[44] Id., at 79.

[45] Draghi, supra note 27, at 254.

[46] Id.

[47] Draghi, supra note 2, at 33.

[48] Id., at 8.

[49] Id., at 30.

[50] Id., at 69.

[51] Ursula von der Leyen, Europe’s Choice: Political Guidelines for the Next European Commission 2024–2029, Eur. Comm‘n, (18 July 2024), available at https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/e6cd4328-673c-4e7a-8683-f63ffb2cf648_en?filename=Political%20Guidelines%202024-2029_EN.pdf.

[52] Id., at 11.

[53] Id., at 7.

[54] Id. (“We need to make business easier and faster in Europe…I will make speed, coherence and simplification political priorities in everything we do”).

[55] Id.

[56] Id., at 6. (“We need a new momentum to complete the Single Market in sectors like services, energy, defence, finance, electronic communications and digital. This will allow our companies – especially our small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) – to scale up and make the most of the market”).

[57] Ursula von der Leyen, Mission Letter to Ekaterina Zaharieva, (17 September 2024), at 5, available at https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/130e9159-8616-4c29-9f61-04592557cf4c_en?filename=Mission%20letter%20-%20ZAHARIEVA.pdf (“I would like you to develop an EU start-up and scale-up strategy that improves the framework conditions for start-ups and scale-ups”).

[58] Von der Leyen, supra note 6.

[59] Id., at 4. (“The Draghi report shows that productivity growth is the result of a combination of two forces: disruptive innovation brought about by new, dynamic start-ups challenging incumbents”).

[60] Id.

[61] Id.

[62] Id., at 4-5.

[63] European Commission, Europe’s Next Leaders: The Start-Up and Scale-Up Initiative, Eur. Comm’n (22 November 2016), at 733, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2016%3A733%3AFIN.

[64] Regulation 2015/1017, of the European Parliament and of the Council of 25 June 2015, 2015 O.J. (L 169) 1 (EU).

[65] Startup Europe: Strengthening Networking for Deep Tech Scaleups and Ecosystem Builders, Eur. Comm’n, https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/startup-europe (last visited 28 July 2025).

[66] European Commission, A New European Innovation Agenda, Eur. Comm’n (5 July 2022), at 332, https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/13437-A-New-European-Innovation-Agenda_en.

[67] The European Innovation Council approved €1 billion in funding for 159 deep-tech startups in its first year. See European Innovation Council (EIC), Eur. Comm’n, https://eic.ec.europa.eu (last visited 28 July 2025).

[68] Launch of New Fund of Funds to Support European Tech Champions, Eur. Invest. Bank (13 February 2023), https://www.eib.org/en/press/all/2023-056-launch-of-new-fund-of-funds-to-support-european-tech-champions.

[69] Stripe, supra note 34, at 11.

[70] EU Startup and Scaleup Strategy: A Roadmap for European Tech Leaders, France Digitale (15 May 2025), available at https://media.francedigitale.org/app/uploads/prod/2025/03/14182410/France-Digitale-EU-Startup-and-Scaleup-Strategy-.pdf.

[71] Draghi, supra note 2, at 2; see also id., at 25-6. (“The lack of growth potential in Europe is particularly relevant for tech-based innovative ventures, and even more so for deep tech ones. For example, 61% of total global funding for AI start-ups goes to US companies, 17% to those in China and just 6% to those in the EU. For quantum computing, EU companies attract only 5% of global private funding compared with a 50% share attracted by US companies”).

[72] European Commission, supra note 32, at para 20.

[73] Draghi, supra note 2, at 18. (“There are still other areas where the EU should do less, applying the subsidiarity principle more rigorously and showing more ‘self-restraint’. It will also be crucial to reduce the regulatory burden on companies. Regulation is seen by more than 60% of EU companies as an obstacle to investment, with 55% of SMEs flagging regulatory obstacles and the administrative burden as their greatest challenge”).

[74] Letta, supra note 25, at 107.

[75] Id., at 120. (In addition, the report finds that: “The dynamism and efficiency of the Single Market are currently being significantly impeded by a complex web of challenges, primarily due to the excessive regulatory burden and bureaucratic red tape. These issues have not only created an intolerable barrier to the effective implementation of Single Market rules but have also severely undermined business competitiveness, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises… This over-regulation places significant additional costs on businesses, proving unsustainable for SMEs and inadvertently favouring non-European companies that are not bound by the same stringent rules”).

[76] For a short overview of this literature, see Adam Thierer, GDPR & European Innovation Culture: What the Economic Evidence Shows, Medium (5 February 2023). https://medium.com/@AdamThierer/gdrp-european-innovation-culture-what-the-economic-evidence-shows-b19d2309de07#:~:text=websites%20internationally,and%20vendor%20concentration%20dissipate%20by. For an overview of research concerning privacy laws, more generally, see William Rinehart, What Is the Cost of Privacy Legislation?, Cent. Growth Oppor. (17 November 2022), https://www.thecgo.org/benchmark/what-is-the-cost-of-privacy-legislation.

[77] Jian Jia, Ginger Zhe Jin, & Liad Wagman, The Persisting Effects of the EU General Data Protection Regulation on Technology Venture Investment, Antitrust Source (June 2021), at 2, https://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/publishing/antitrust-magazine-online/2021/june-2021/jun2021-jia.pdf#:~:text=time%2C%20through%202020,As%20a. (“[A]fter the GDPR’s rollout, the number of monthly financing deals for EU technology ventures declined by 26.1 percent compared to their U.S. counterparts”).

[78] Id., at 1. (“Using venture investment data, we examine how the regulation may have affected investments in European technology ventures over time, through 2020. Our findings indicate a persisting reduction in the number of investment deals in nascent European technology ventures following the implementation of the legislation in comparison to technology ventures in the United States. As a result, policymakers considering tighter data regulations should weigh these costs against the potential benefits”).

[79] Id., at 4-5. (“We find evidence that the negative effect from the GDPR on EU technology venture investment persists 2.5 years after the rollout of the GDPR, although the magnitude of the effect is decreasing over time. EU technology firms, relative to their U.S. counterparts, experienced an average decline of 21.51 percent in their number of venture investment deals”). See also at 2-3. (“The negative effects are larger in the 6-month period immediately after the GDPR’s rollout in 2018, but some of them are sustained in 2019. Furthermore, the analysis suggested that such negative effects are more pronounced for younger ventures, consumer-facing ventures, earlier funding rounds, and for technology ventures that are more reliant on data”).

[80] Id., at 5. (“We also find that consumer-facing (B2C) ventures incur larger declines than business-facing (B2B) ventures. This difference between B2C and B2B ventures is potentially because consumer-facing products have more exposure to the regulation”).

[81] Garrett A. Johnson, Scott K. Shriver, & Samuel G. Goldberg, Privacy and Market Concentration: Intended and Unintended Consequences of the GDPR, 69 Mgmt. Sci. 5695, 5696 (2023).

[82] Id., at 5708.

[83]  Michal S. Gal & Oshrit Aviv, The Competitive Effects of the GDPR, 16 J. Comp. L. & Econ. 349, 352 (2020).

[84] Chinchih Chen, Carl B. Frey, & Giorgio Presidente, Privacy Regulation and Firm Performance: Estimating the GDPR Effect Globally, 62 Econ. Inquiry (2024): 1074, 1075 (2024).

[85] Yu Zhao, Pinar Yildirim, & Pradeep K. Chintagunta, Privacy Regulations and Online Search Friction: Evidence from GDPR (Marketing Science Institute Working Paper Series Report No. 23-141, 2023).

[86] Id., at 15.

[87] Draghi, supra note 2, at 69.

[88] Draghi, supra note 27, at 79.

[89] Rebecca Janssen, Reinhold Kesler, Michael E. Kummer, & Joel Waldfogel, GDPR and the Lost Generation of Innovative Apps, (National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 30028, 2022), at 2.

[90] Id.

[91] Id.

[92] Klaus M. Miller, Julia Schmitt, & Bernd Skiera, The Impact of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) on Online Usage Behavior, arXiv (18 November 2024), at 1, https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.11589.

[93] Ellen O’Regan, Europe’s GDPR Privacy Law Is Headed for Red Tape Bonfire Within “Weeks”, Politico (3 April 2025), https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-gdpr-privacy-law-europe-president-ursula-von-der-leyen. (“Europe’s most famous technology law, the GDPR, is next on the hit list as the European Union pushes ahead with its regulatory killing spree to slash laws it reckons are weighing down its businesses”).

[94] Id.

[95] Id.

[96] Id.

[97] Regulation 2022/1925 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 September 2022 on Contestable and Fair Markets in the Digital sector and Amending Directives (EU) 2019/1937 and (EU) 2020/1828 (Digital Markets Act), 2022 O.J. (L 265) 1; Regulation 2022/2065 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 October 2022 on a Single Market for Digital Services and Amending Directive 2000/31/EC (Digital Services Act), 2022 O.J. (L 277) 1.

[98] The Digital Markets Act: Ensuring Fair and Open Digital Markets, Eur. Comm’n https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age/digital-markets-act-ensuring-fair-and-open-digital-markets_en (last visited 15 May 2025).

[99] See, e.g., Geoffrey A. Manne, Invited Statement of Geoffrey A. Manne on House Judiciary Investigation Into Competition in Digital Markets (17 April 2020), at 44, available at https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Manne_statement_house_antitrust_20200417_FINAL3-POST.pdf. (“There is little evidence for ‘killer acquisitions’ in digital markets, and it would be nearly impossible to identify which acquisitions are ‘killer’ before the fact. Acquisitions are often investors’ and founders’ ‘exit strategy,’ and the evidence suggests that deterring acquisitions in tech would chill investment in startups and harm innovation”); Statement of Scott Kupor, Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century: FTC Hearing #3 Day 1: Multi-Sided Platforms, Labor Markets, and Potential Competition, FTC Transcript 183 (15 October 2018), (“[L]arge players play a significant role as acquirers of venture-backed startup companies, which is an important part of the overall health of the venture ecosystem”); La Actual Propuesta Sobre DMA Impacta Negativamente en el Ecosistema Europeo de Startups, Asociación Española de Startups, https://asociacionstartups.es/la-actual-propuesta-sobre-dma-impacta-negativamente-en-el-ecosistema-europeo-de-startups (last visited May 15, 2025), (“Net VC numbers could plunge in Europe for a period still to be estimated, as the impact of the DMA on the ecosystem and the uncertainty it can generate keeps under assessment. The impact could be greater and deeper in more risk-averse investment models such as corporate ventures and regular M&A”).

[100] Carmelo Cennamo & Juan Santaló, Potential Risks and Unintended Effects of the New EU Digital Markets Act (Open Internet Governance Institute Paper Series No. 4, February 2023), available at https://www.esade.edu/ecpol/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/AAFF_EcPol-OIGI_PaperSeries_04_Potentialrisks_ENG_v5.pdf.

[101] Id., at 11.

[102] Meredith Broadbent, Implications of the Digital Markets Act for Transatlantic Cooperation, Cent. Strateg. Int. Stud. (15 September 2021), https://www.csis.org/analysis/implications-digital-markets-act-transatlantic-cooperation.

[103] Will the Digital Services Act Help Startups Succeed?, GLOBSEC (16 July 2020) https://www.globsec.org/what-we-do/commentaries/will-digital-services-act-help-startups-succeed.

[104] Id.

[105] GLOBSEC, supra note 103.

[106] Thierer, supra note 76.

[107] Jia, Zhe, & Wagman, supra note 77. (“Data regulation, however, entails tradeoffs. On the one hand, consumers who value privacy and the ability to more readily exercise control over their data could benefit from enhanced data regulation. On the other hand, these same consumers may also encounter new market conditions that they do not like, such as higher prices or fewer innovations. Indeed, data regulations increase firms’ compliance costs, and existing economic theories also show that compliance costs can disproportionately impact nascent firms and dampen entrepreneurs’ incentives to pursue innovations as new ventures. Because these economic costs can reduce profitability, they may also affect the ability of new, innovative companies to receive funding from investors”).

[108] Gal & Aviv, supra note 83.

[109] Johnson, Shriver, & Goldberg, supra note 81, at 5695. (“The week after the GDPR’s enforcement, website use of web technology vendors falls by 15% for EU residents. Websites are more likely to drop smaller vendors, which increases the relative concentration of the vendor market by 17%. Increased concentration predominantly arises among vendors that use personal data such as cookies, and from the increased relative shares of Facebook and Google-owned vendors, but not from website consent requests”).

[110] Thierer, supra note 76.

[111] American Innovation Under Siege: Venture Capital Data Reveal Risks From Rising Global Regulatory Overreach, Am. Edge Proj. (March 2024), at 8, available at https://americanedgeproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/AEP-and-PitchBook-Study-March-2024.pdf.

[112] Id., at 7.

[113] European Commission, supra note 98.

[114] DMA, recital 32.

[115] DMA, recital 33.

[116] The DMA IA does touch apps developers, many of whom may be TSUs who would benefit directly from Apple’s App Store being designated as a core platform service. The DMA IA notes at 27 that: “We have also calculated that, if the commission charged by the Apple App Store is excessive and those charges were reduced by half (from 30% to 15%), this could increase EU consumer surplus by €490m if the benefits are passed onto consumers through lower prices, or create the potential for additional investment and innovation by app developers”.

[117] For example, fair ranking (art. 6(5)); restrictions on gatekeepers using data generated by business users on their platforms—e.g., when business users seek to develop competing apps or services (art. 6(2)); data-portability provisions allowing end users to port their data from gatekeeper platforms (art. 6(9) & (10)), thus enabling end users to move their data to competitors and for business users to secure “free of charge… effective, high-quality, continuous and real-time access to, and use of, aggregated and non-aggregated data” generated by their apps, “giving competitors & new entrants a chance to capture new demand”;[117] access to anonymized “ranking query click & view” data (art. 6(11)) from gatekeeper search engines, assisting new search engines to improve their performance.

[118] Eleonor Bonel, New Rules for Digital Markets: A Roadmap to the Digital Markets Act, Eur. Digit. SME Alliance (7 July 2022), https://www.digitalsme.eu/new-rules-for-digital-markets-a-roadmap-to-the-digital-markets-act.

[119] DMA, art. 14(1): “A gatekeeper shall inform the Commission of such a concentration prior to its implementation and following the conclusion of the agreement, the announcement of the public bid, or the acquisition of a controlling interest”. One of the DMA’s revolutions was to grant the Commission power under art. 18 to, for a limited time, prohibit gatekeepers from collecting data or entering any concentration in the digital sector. This remedy is likely to be exceptional, as it can only be applied in the event of a finding of systemic noncompliance and must both proportionate and necessary to maintain or restore fairness and contestability.

[120] Council Regulation (EC) No 139/2004 of 20 January 2004 on the Control of Concentrations Between Undertakings (the European Commission Merger Regulation), 2004 O.J. (L 24) 1.

[121] The Commission’s Impact Assessment for the Digital Services Act sees the DMA as particularly relevant for innovative startups and scaleups. See Commission Staff Working Document, Impact Assessment Accompanying the Proposal for a Regulation on a Single Market for Digital Services (Digital Services Act), SWD(2020) 348 final (15 December 2020), https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52020SC0348. (“The Digital Markets Act intervention focuses on large online platforms, which have become gatekeepers and whose unfair conduct in the market may undermine the competitive environment and the contestability of the markets, especially for innovative start-ups and scale-ups”).

[122] David J. Teece & Henry J. Kahwaty, Is the Digital Markets Act the Cure for Europe’s Platform Ills? Evidence From the European Commission’s Impact Assessment, in The Economics and Regulation of Digital Markets 5 (Frank Fagan & James Langenfeld eds., 2023).

[123] See Digital Markets Act, Eur. Council, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/digital-markets-act (last visited 18 January 2025).

[124] DMA, recitals 10, 23.

[125] See, e.g., Annual Competition Report 2024, Eur. Comm’n (25 April 2024), at 2, available at https://competition-policy.ec.europa.eu/document/download/12ef50fd-eee5-43f1-b81b-ac014b226bdc_en?filename=annual-competition-report_2024_report_part1_en.pdf (“[T]he European Commission…and its Directorate General for Competition continued to develop EU competition policy to achieve the objectives of a green, digital, and resilient European economy, as well as to actively enforce competition rules” (emphasis added)); Annual Competition Report 2023, Eur. Comm’n (6 March 2024), at 2, https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/53a4d34f-f3f6-11ef-b7db-01aa75ed71a1. (“EU competition policy was one of many tools successfully used for the continued crisis response, the economic recovery, as well as delivering on the green and digital transitions” (emphasis added)).

[126] For example, recital 68 notes that “the Commission should publish online a link to the non-confidential summary of the [gatekeeper’s compliance] report, as well as all other public information based on information obligations under this Regulation, in order to ensure accessibility of such information in a usable and comprehensive manner, in particular for small and medium enterprises (SMEs)”. Art. 9 also required that the Commission take SME interests into account when it considers whether to suspend the application of specific DMA obligations in exceptional circumstances that are beyond the gatekeeper’s control.

[127] Eoghan O’Neill, EU’s Digital Markets Act: Opportunity Engine for Startups, Eur. Comm’n (December 2023), available at https://assets-global.website-files.com/60143b5f4bfa6c7e7f2266fb/657f926d3ca04deb2fffc368_2023%20DMA%20-%20startup%20opportunity%20engine%20(Dublin).pdf.

[128] See Giuseppe Colangelo & Alba Ribera Martinez, The Metrics of DMA’s Success, 1 Eur. J. Risk. Reg. 20-21 (2024), (Arguing that “although contestability and fairness are the proclaimed protected legal interests, they do not represent the outcomes the EU legislator aimed to embed in the Regulation”. The DMA’s success must instead be measured against its real goals, which are “market modelling, openness, neutralizing competitive advantages, and enhancing transparency”).

[129] Olivier Guersent, Keynote Speech at the Annual CRA Brussels Conference, Eur. Comm’n (6 December 2023), available at https://competition-policy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-12/20231206_CRA_conference_Olivier-Guersent_speech.pdf.

[130] Id.

[131] Letizia Tomada, Start-ups and the Proposed EU AI Act: Bridges or Barriers in the Path from Invention to Innovation?, 13 J. Intell. Prop. Info. Tech. & ELEC. Com. L. 53 (2022).

[132] Regulation 2022/2065 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 October 2022 on a Single Market for Digital Services and amending Directive 2000/31/EC (Digital Services Act), 2022 O.J. (L 277) 1.

[133] The Digital Services Act: Ensuring a Safe and Accountable Online Environment, Eur. Comm’n, available at https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age/digital-services-act_en (last visited 22 April 2025).

[134] Commission Staff Working Document, Impact Assessment Accompanying the Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on a Single Market for Digital Services (Digital Services Act) and amending Directive 2000/31/EC, SWD (2020) 348 final (15 December 2020), para 182.

[135] European Parliament Resolution of 20 October 2020 with Recommendations to the Commission on the Digital Services Act: Improving the Functioning of the Single Market (2020/2018 (INL)), para 73.

[136] The European Parliament took note of the need for specific measures to protect smaller players and proposed that “the DSA should put forward a proposal for a new separate instrument aiming at ensuring that the systemic role of specific online platforms will not endanger the internal market by unfairly excluding innovative new entrants, including SMEs, entrepreneurs and start-ups, thereby reducing consumer choice”. Id., Annex VII.

[137] DSA IA, supra note 134, at 23.

[138] Others include involvement in dispute resolution (art. 21) and “trusted flaggers” (art. 22); a suspension process for manifestly illegal content (art. 23); reporting obligations for providers of online platforms (art. 24); obligations to avoid deceiving or manipulating the recipients of their service (Art. 25); transparency of online advertising (art. 26); transparency on recommender systems (Art. 27); and obligations to put in place measures to protect minors (art. 28). Under art. 24(3), however, micro or small enterprises may still have to provide information on EU average monthly active users if requested by the established digital-services coordinator or the European Commission.

[139] See Brussels, 28.9.2021 SWD(2021) 279 Final Commission Staff Working Document Evaluation of Recommendation of 6 May 2003 Concerning the Definition of Micro, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (2003/361/EC), SWD(2021) 280 final. The Commission also noted, however, that: “Problems related to operating cross-border and access to finance are actually bigger obstacles preventing SMEs from scaling-up than the loss of the SME status”.

[140] DSA, art. 91(2)(d).

[141] DSA, art. 91(1).

[142] Regulation (EU) 2023/2854 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 December 2023 on Harmonised Rules on Fair Access to and Use of Data and Amending Regulation (EU) 2017/2394 and Directive (EU) 2020/1828, 2023 O.J. (L 2854) 1 (Data Act).

[143] Data Act, recital 3.

[144] Data Act, recital 40, referring to SMEs as defined in art. 2 of the Annex to Commission Recommendation 2003/361/EC (SMEs), Op. Cit.

[145] Id.

[146] Notably, the obligation to make product data and related service data accessible to the user (art. 3); the rights and obligations of users and data holders with regard to access, use, and making available product data and related service data (art. 4); the user’s right to share data with third parties (art. 5); and third parties’ obligations when receiving data at the request of the user (art. 6). Microenterprises or small enterprises are covered, so long as they do not have a business partner that holds more than 25% of their capital or voting rights (excluding public and venture-capital investors, “business angels” or, with some limits, universities and nonprofit research centres and institutional investors).

[147] Per art. 3 of the Annex to Recommendation 2003/361/EC. Op. Cit.

[148] Data Act, recital 41.

[149] Data Act, recital 49.

[150] Data Act, recital 51.

[151] See art. 5(3) and recital 40.

[152] Data Act, recital 75.

[153] Commission Staff Working Document, Impact Assessment Accompanying the Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on Harmonised Rules on Fair Access to and Use of Data (Data Act), SWD (2022) 34 final (23 February 2022), 56.

[154] Id.

[155] Data Act, recital 58.

[156] Data Act, recital 111.

[157] European Parliament, supra note 153, at 18.

[158] Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, A European Strategy for Data COM(2020)66 final (19 February 2020).

[159] European Parliament, supra note 135, para 36.

[160] Id., para 38.

[161] Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 June 2024 Laying Down Harmonised Rules on Artificial Intelligence and Amending Regulations (EC) No 300/2008, (EU) No 167/2013, (EU) No 168/2013, (EU) 2018/858, (EU) 2018/1139 and (EU) 2019/2144 and Directives 2014/90/EU, (EU) 2016/797 and (EU) 2020/1828 (Artificial Intelligence Act), 2024 O.J. (L 1689) 1.

[162] Tomada, supra note 131.

[163] Draghi, supra note 2.

[164] Id., at 29-30.

[165] Commission Staff Working Document, Impact Assessment Accompanying the Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council Laying Down Harmonised Rules on Artificial Intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act) and Amending Certain Union Legislative Acts, SWD (2021) 84 final, pt. 1 (21 April 2021), at 23.

[166] Id., at 26.

[167] See Ian Mundell, The Ecosystem: Start-ups Give Cautious Welcome to Artificial Intelligence Innovation Package, Science Business (13 February 2024), https://sciencebusiness.net/news/ai/ecosystem-start-ups-give-cautious-welcome-artificial-intelligence-innovation-package.

[168] New recital 74a.

[169] Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions on Boosting Startups and Innovation in Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence, COM (2024) 28 final (24 January 2024).

[170] Id., at 4.

[171] Id.

[172] Commission Staff Working Document Accompanying the Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, An EU Initiative on Web 4.0 and Virtual Worlds: A Head Start in the Next Technological Transition, SWD (2023), 250 final, pt. 1 (11 July 2023), https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:52023SC0250.

[173] Id., at 17.

[174] Mundell, supra note 166.

[175] Council Regulation (EC) No 139/2004 of 20 January 2004 on the Control of Concentrations Between Undertakings (the European Commission Merger Regulation), 2004 O.J. (L 24) 1.

[176] Joined Cases C-611/22 P and C-625/22 P, Illumina and Grail v. Commission, ECLI:EU:C:2024:677. (Finding that the Commission had overstepped its authority by accepting referral requests under art. 22 from national competition authorities that did not have jurisdiction to review the merger under their own national laws).

[177] Communication from the Commission, Guidance on the Application of the Referral Mechanism Set Out in Article 22 of the Merger Regulation to Certain Categories of cases, 2021 O.J (C 113) 1, 2 para 9, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52021XC0331%2801%29.

[178] Id., para 19.

[179] Viktoria H.S.E. Robertson, The Future of Digital Markets in a Post-DMA World, 44 Eu. Comp. L. Rev. 447 (2023).

[180] See, e.g., Christophe Carugati, Which Mergers Should the European Commission Review Under the Digital Markets Act?,  Bruegel Policy Brief (9 December 2022), https://www.bruegel.org/policy-brief/which-mergers-should-european-commission-review-under-digital-markets-act. Indeed, the European Parliament’s lead committee reviewing the DMA proposed an amendment to the merger provisions. While not ultimately adopted, the proposed amendment signalled concerns about gatekeeper M&A strategies. See Report on the Proposal for a Regulation on Contestable and Fair Markets in the Digital Sector (Digital Markets Act), A9-0332/2021 Amendment 5, Eur. Parl. (15 December 2021), https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/A-9-2021-0332_EN.html. (“Systematic mergers and acquisitions should have a clear and legal threshold to put an end to killer acquisitions where big companies buy start-ups and growing companies in order to suppress any possible competition. A special attention should be given to takeovers in important sectors such as health, education, defence and financial services”).  

[181] European Commission, supra note 171, at 3.2.

[182] Tomada, supra note 31, at 65.

[183] Marc Ivaldi, Nicolas Petit, & Selcukhan Unekbas, Killer Acquisitions: Evidence from EC Merger Cases in Digital Industries (TSE Working Paper No.13-1420 1, 2023), https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4407333. (“Pursuant to the theory of killer acquisitions, some of these cases should have led to reduced competition. Focusing on publicly available information through financial disclosures, our analysis suggests that no transaction was followed by the disappearance of the target’s products, a weakening of competing firms, and/or a post-merger lowering or absence of entry and innovation. Skepticism about the killer acquisitions theory should prevail”); Jonathan Barnett, “Killer Acquisitions” Reexamined: Economic Hyperbole in the Age of Populist Antitrust, 3(1) Chi. Bus. L. Rev. 39, 39 (2024). (“A review of the relevant body of evidence finds that these widely-held views concerning incumbent/startup acquisitions rest on meager support, confined to ambiguous evidence drawn from a small portion of the total universe of acquisitions in the pharmaceutical market and theoretical models of acquisition transactions in information technology markets”).

[184] Id., Ivaldi, Petit, & Unekbas, at 26-29. (Finding that, in six cases of potential “killer acquisitions”, output increased, and concluding that “[i]n summary, in very few cases, a merger appeared to have been followed by a weakening, let alone a killing, of competition. The competitive landscape post-merger remained vibrant in most cases, invalidating one key condition required for the killer acquisition theory to be plausible”); id., Barnett, at 39, 70-83.

[185] See, e.g., Statement on Competition Policy in the Digital Sector, Eur. Comm’n (10 May 2024), https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/de/statement_24_4525. (“A company with limited turnover may still play a significant competitive role on the market, as a start-up with significant potential, or as an important innovator. Killer acquisitions seek to neutralize small but promising companies as a possible source of competition”); Lewis Crofts, Tackling Killer Acquisitions Is Most Compelling Concern, EU’s Ribera Says, MLex (15 October 2024), https://www.mlex.com/mlex/dealrisk/articles/2321350/tackling-killer-acquisitions-is-most-compelling-concern-eu-s-ribera-says (indicating that Commissioner for Competition Teresa Ribera views the acquisitions of startups by “big tech” firms as one of the EU’s most pressing competition concerns).

[186] The Autorité Publishes Its Contribution to the Debate on Competition Policy and the Challenges Raised by the Digital Economy, Autorité de la Concurrence (February 2020), https://www.autoritedelaconcurrence.fr/en/communiques-de-presse/autorite-publishes-its-contribution-debate-competition-policy-and-challenges.

[187] Comptes Rendus de la Commission des Affaires Économiques, Audition de M. Cédric O, secrétaire d’État chargé du numérique (22 January 2020), https://www.senat.fr/compte-rendu-commissions/20200120/ecos.html#toc2.

[188] Id.

[189] See, e.g., Barnett, supra note 182, at 39 (“[T]he emergent regulatory and scholarly consensus fails to take into account the rich body of evidence showing the critical function played by incumbent/startup acquisitions in supplying a monetization mechanism that induces venture-capital investment and promotes startup entry in technology markets. The prospect of an acquisition transaction in the case of technical and commercial success generally promotes innovation and competition by providing a transactional device that expands startups’ access to the capital inputs required to undertake R&D and the commercialization services required to convert R&D outputs into commercially viable products. At the same time, these acquisitions enable incumbents to access the specialized innovation capacities of smaller firms”); see also at 72 (“incumbents in technology markets regularly acquire emerging firms, and emerging firms regularly seek to be acquired by incumbents, principally because this constitutes an efficient mechanism for executing the innovation and commercialization process… Rather than representing a presumptively anticompetitive strategy to extinguish competitive threats, incumbent/startup acquisitions are best construed as part of a broader set of transactional mechanisms that firms use to efficiently execute the innovation and commercialization process in response to competitive forces”).

[190] Id., at 77 (finding that, following the investments made by acquiring companies in scaling and integrating targets, “it is no surprise that smaller firms would seek to be acquired by large platforms that can offer these powerful commercialization capacities and accelerate monetization of a target’s innovation assets”).

[191] On this point, see Manne, Radic, & Auer, supra note 15 (arguing that one of the central goals of ex-ante digital competition rules like the DMA is to level gatekeepers downward); Colangelo & Ribera, supra note 138 (arguing that the DMA is intended to neutralize gatekeepers’ competitive advantages); and Oles Andriychuk, Do DMA Obligations for Gatekeepers Create Entitlements for Business Users?, 11 J. Antitrust Enforc. 123,126-129 (2023), (arguing that the nature of the DMA’s obligations is punitive).

[192] European Parliament, supra note 136.

[193] DSA IA, supra note 135, at 24.

[194] Bala?zs Hohmann & Bence Kis Kelemen, Is There Anything New Under the Sun? A Glance at the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act from the Perspective of Digitalisation in the EU, 19 Croat. Y.B. Eur. L. Pol’y. 225 (2023).

[195] EU 2024–2029: France Digitale’s Manifesto for the 2024 European Elections, France Digitale (December 2023), at 6, available at https://media.francedigitale.org/app/uploads/prod/2023/11/28111529/France-Digitale-2024-European-Manifesto-web-1.pdf.

[196] Id., at 26.

[197] Tomada, supra note 31, at 61.

[198] Cristiano Codagnone & Linda Weigl, Leading the Charge on Digital Regulation: The More, the Better, or Policy Bubble? 2 Digital Soc’y 1 (2023), https://doi.org/10.1007/s44206-023-00033-7.

[199] Id., at 17.

[200] Tomada, supra note 31, at 64.

[201] Id., at 61.

[202] Id., at 65.

[203] Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, AI Continent Action Plan COM (2025) 165 final, https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/ai-continent-action-plan.

[204] Id., at 21.

[205] Id., at 22.

[206] Id.

[207] Teese & Kahwaty, supra note 122.

ICLE White Paper

Lessons for Deference From the Telephone Consumer Protection Act

The U.S. Supreme Court’s opinion in?McLaughlin Chiropractic Associates v. McKesson Corp.?is ostensibly about the Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA), the 1990s-era law that—also ostensibly—makes robocalls and junk faxes illegal. But the opinion’s real importance is to reinforce last year’s decision in?Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo. That decision formally overruled?Chevron v. Natural Resources Defense Council, and with it the era of default deference to reasonable agency interpretations of ambiguous statutes.

McLaughlin expands Loper Bright’s holding: Courts—not agencies—bear primary responsibility for interpreting statutes, unless the U.S. Congress expressly provides otherwise. Justice Brett Kavanaugh explained that “fundamental principles of administrative law establish the proper default rule: In an enforcement proceeding, a district court must independently determine for itself whether the agency’s interpretation of a statute is correct.”

Read the full piece here.

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The Governance of Digital Public Infrastructure: Case Studies

I. Introduction

The concept of digital public infrastructure (DPI) has gained cultural currency in recent years as a key component in strategies to reduce poverty and promote sustainable economic development. The concept appears to have been inspired by the so-called “India Stack,” the set of systems and rules developed by the Indian government that comprises:

  • A digital identity system;
  • An interoperable real-time digital-payment system; and
  • A set of mandatory standards for data sharing.

The Gates Foundation, which committed in 2022 to spend $200 million to promote DPI,[1] describes it as “a set of digital systems that enables countries to safely and efficiently provide economic opportunities and deliver social services.”[2] The hope is that “[s]afe and inclusive DPI can ultimately help advance progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals and ensure that everyone can prosper, especially women and people with the lowest incomes.”[3]

The Gates Foundation notes that “DPI spans the entire economy, connecting people, data, and money in much the same way that roads and railways connect people and goods.”[4] In many respects, this is a useful analogy: just as roads and railways are supplied and regulated in different ways in different jurisdictions, the optimum delivery of DPI will also likely vary from place to place and from time to time.

This study considers some of the main ways that DPI is currently supplied and regulated, with the aim of adducing lessons for improving DPI implementation, with a particular focus on the role of government. Broadly speaking, while we find that government can play a constructive role, it is important to ensure that state involvement avoids crowding out the private sector, impeding competition and innovation, or improperly sharing sensitive information.

A. Ownership, Operation and Regulation

The Gates Foundation warns that:

Countries that allow a laissez-faire market approach to digital services risk becoming dominated by monopolies that charge high fees or having multiple systems that don’t interact. People, businesses, and the government itself will be exposed to risks that include fraud, cyberattacks, and illicit financial flows if well-governed, high-quality safeguards are not put in place.[5]

While these are legitimate concerns, it is important to consider them within the context of broader governance challenges, as there is also clearly a risk that government-run and/or controlled DPI systems may suffer from the same problems. Indeed, public-choice theory suggests that government-run systems will generally be less responsive to consumers, less dynamic, and more susceptible to political interference.[6] Moreover, they will likely reflect the priorities of whichever government is in power.[7]

The governance of DPI can be categorized according to who owns and operates the core systems, the internal operational rules, and the external regulatory framework.

1. The structure of ownership and operation

There are three models of ownership and operation: private, governmental, and hybrid or public-private-partnership (PPP). Considering each in turn:

  • Privately owned and operated: In this model, private firms or industry consortia develop and operate the infrastructure, with the state’s role limited to regulatory oversight and setting the legal framework. Examples include mobile-money networks led by the telecommunications industry, such as M-Pesa; independent payment networks, such as Mastercard and Visa; and bank consortia, such as The Clearing House’s real-time-payments (RTP) system in the United States and EBA Clearing’s RT1 in Europe.
  • Government-owned and operated: Under this model, a state or a state agency (such as the central bank) builds and runs the infrastructure and sets the rules directly. Examples include national digital-ID systems, such as India’s Aadhaar and Estonia’s e-ID; and central-bank-operated payment systems, such as Brazil’s Pix and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FedNow.
  • Public-private partnerships (hybrids): Hybrid (PPPs) comprise a wide range of mixed systems. In general, the government sets requirements, while the infrastructure is built and operated by private entities. Examples include Thailand’s PromptPay system, developed by the Thai Bankers Association and ITMX with backing from the central bank;[8] and India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI), developed by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), a not-for-profit company owned by a consortium of banks and the central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).[9]

2. Internal rules and external regulation

While DPI systems’ ownership and operational structures matter, an arguably more important determinant of their respective performance is the mix of internal governing structures, processes, rules, and relationships, and the nature of external regulation. Together, these factors determine how the DPI is directed, controlled, and held to account. The sections below delve more deeply into the interplay among ownership, control, regulation, and broader governance issues in the context of specific aspects of DPI.

B. Overview

The study proceeds as follows. Section II considers ID systems in more detail, comparing and contrasting two of the leading government-created ID systems, India’s Aadhaar and Estonia’s e-ID, as well as private alternatives. Section III looks at real-time digital payment systems, comparing systems in India, Brazil, Thailand, the United Kingdom, Europe, and the United States. Section IV considers which DPI models lead to more rapid adoption of bank accounts and digital payments, but cautions against drawing conclusions. Finally, Section V offers policy conclusions—arguing that, while digital infrastructure can clearly be transformative, its governance should minimize direct government involvement in competitive markets. We recommend that governments focus instead on enabling frameworks, and caution against viewing India’s UPI or Brazil’s Pix as one-size-fits-all models for other countries.

II. Digital-Identity Systems

One of the major costs that banks and other financial-services firms face when onboarding new clients relates to know-your-customer (KYC) requirements. Specifically, firms must verify the identity of customers to avoid impersonation (identity theft), fraud, and money laundering.[10]

But identity verification—proving that a person is who they say they are—can be challenging. In the United States, banks typically use multifactor authentication, requiring customers furnish some combination of their:

  • Social Security Number (SSN);
  • Driver’s license or passport; or
  • Credit or debit card and/or a credit check.

Each of these factors can be checked against a set of separate registries, some run by the federal government (SSN, passports); others by state governments (driver’s licenses); and others still by private companies (banks, credit agencies). In principle, this combination of factors provides a powerful system for confirming identity. It is, however, still quite easy to spoof the system or create synthetic identities,[11] and the advent of generative artificial intelligence (AI) may potentially make the problem significantly worse.[12]

Over the past two decades, many jurisdictions have introduced digital IDs that rely on centralized registries—typically accessed via public-key infrastructure (PKI)—to verify the identity of citizens and other residents. In principle, such digital-identity systems offer a secure and effective means to verify a customer’s identity for KYC purposes, while requiring fewer pieces of information than multifactor authentication.

A. Estonia’s e-ID

Estonia pioneered a national digital ID in the early 2000s as part of its e-government strategy. Each citizen is allocated a unique identifier (UID) and receives a digital ID card (and now, a mobile-ID), which embeds the UID and connects securely to the government registry. The e-ID can be used for online authentication and legally binding digital signatures. While the system relies on a government-issued UID, it is implemented through cooperation with private technology firms and Estonia’s banking association. This governance model emphasizes security (each ID has certificates and uses PKI encryption) and universal acceptance: one ID to access virtually all services, from banking to voting.

The success of Estonia’s model is evident in the fact that 98% of citizens have the ID and use it frequently to interact with both public and private services.[13] Because the government provided a secure and trusted backbone, private companies don’t each need to develop their own login or KYC solutions; they rely instead on the national-ID infrastructure. This has saved costs and contributed to a thriving digital ecosystem. Concerns about independence are mitigated by the fact that, while the state runs the identity system, its use is nondiscriminatory and open to all providers equally.

Moreover, development and maintenance of the interoperable system used to access the registry, the X-Road, has been devolved to the Nordic Institute for Interoperability Solutions (NIIS), a joint initiative originally established by Estonia and Finland and now involving many partner governments. Meanwhile, the X-Road software itself is open source, and many private companies and individuals contribute to its ongoing development.

B. India’s Aadhaar

Aadhaar is a government-run universal-digital-ID program launched in 2009, through which each resident is issued a unique 12-digit identity number linked to their biometrics (fingerprint and/or face ID).[14] It is the world’s largest biometric-ID system, covering more than 1.4 billion people, or roughly 96% of India’s population.[15] Developed by the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI), Aadhaar was designed with an open API (application programming interface) that allows both government agencies and private companies to authenticate identities online (with user consent).[16]

A recent survey found that Aadhaar has reduced the cost of undertaking KYC from around $12 per-person to just $0.06 per-person.[17] As such, Aadhaar has been one of the primary drivers of the recent dramatic increase in the proportion of Indian adults who hold bank accounts.

But Aadhaar has also faced notable privacy concerns stemming from reported security breaches and seeming abuse. One state government is alleged to have used the system to “clean up” voter-registration rolls, and while misuse by a political party has been alleged in another state.[18] Aadhaar has also faced challenges relating to biometric-identification failure. This, somewhat ironically, has most adversely affected the elderly and the poor, many of whom have been unable to receive food and other benefits when the system failed to recognize their fingerprint.[19] The closed-source nature of Aadhaar’s data-sharing layer also mean that it is not open to public scrutiny or improvement in the ways that X-Road.

C. Privacy-Preserving Systems for Verifying Identity

Most government-run digital-ID systems proceed from the premise that verification requires direct sharing of personally identifiable information (PII). By contrast, many private systems rely on proof points that do not necessarily entail sharing such information. For example, when connecting to a website using transfer-layer security (TLS), a web browser will share information about “you” (such as your IP address and a temporary public key generated during the “handshake”) that enables it to verify various relevant characteristics; these do not, however, usually include a user’s name or much of anything in the way of PII.[20]

A new generation of digital IDs developed in the past decade enable identity information to be confirmed via verifiable credentials without directly sharing PII (e.g., using zero-knowledge proofs to confirm, rather than share information).[21] This is likely to improve the speed and efficiency with which people are able to open and update their accounts with new, verified information, thereby reducing friction in the system.

Systems with an open-source data-sharing layer, such as X-Road, could easily be adapted to facilitate identify verification though zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs)—i.e., with the registry acting as an oracle.[22] By contrast, the data-sharing layer of closed-source government-run systems like Aadhaar—currently built around sharing PII and/or confirming a user’s biometric identity—would have to be completely rebuilt to facilitate ZKP-based identity verification.[23]

D. Comparing ID Systems

The experience with Aadhaar and Estonia’s eID suggest that centralized digital-ID systems can be rolled out quickly, facilitating rapid expansion of access to financial and other services that necessitate identity verification, especially when the systems are mandatory and/or the incentives to adopt them (such as the availability of government benefits) are strong. But when such systems rely on sharing PII, and where the infrastructure employs inadequate security measures, they are open to misuse.

Moreover, centralized government-run ID systems with closed-source data-sharing layers are likely to suffer from technological lock-in due to the relatively slow rate at which governments respond to changes. As such, limiting the purpose of any government-ID system to a registry; requiring that registry to facilitate ID checks with the maximum degree of privacy protection; and imposing fines on the registry’s directors for breaches (or otherwise holding those directors liable) is likely to create the best incentives (on the part of the registry’s operators) to ensure the ID system maintains appropriate security protocols and data-minimization frameworks (including, e.g., limiting verification to ZKP systems).

Nonetheless, some critics have raised concerns that relying on a single authority for identity (underpinned by a UID), even if shared or “wrapped” using a ZKP, poses security risks and could weaken speech protections by undermining pseudonymity. For instance, even with a ZKP wrapper, a person’s unique identity will be traceable. [24] Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has suggested that pluralistic identities, requiring verification via multiple unrelated certificate authorities, offer a better solution. Such a system would effectively combine the multifactor authentication used in jurisdictions like the United States with the security of digital IDs and the privacy-preserving features of ZKPs.[25]

III. The Governance of Real-Time Payments

For consumers, perhaps the most visible aspect of DPI is the ability to send and receive money instantly by electronic means. In recent years, many countries have implemented real-time payment (RTP) systems that allow immediate credit-push fund transfers 24 hours a day. Broadly speaking, governance of RTP systems can be classified into three buckets: privately owned and operated, central-bank owned and operated, and hybrid public-private-partnerships (PPPs). But as with any taxonomy, bright lines can be challenging: some systems, such as the UK’s Faster Payments, are privately owned and operated but so heavily regulated that we have put them in the PPP category.

A. Private RTPs

Privately owned and operated systems emerge through a process of dynamic competition in response to perceived market demand. This is reflected in their internal governance structures; while these vary considerably, those that succeed typically adopt private-sector best practices.

In 2017, The Clearing House (TCH), the oldest banking association and payments company in the United States, launched its RTP network.[26] TCH is owned by about two dozen of the largest U.S. banks, meaning that RTP is a privately owned and operated network, although the Federal Reserve does play a supervisory role (and now, also, serves a competitor via FedNow). Despite having no government mandate or subsidy, RTP directly reaches about 70% of demand-deposit accounts (DDAs) and can reach up to 90% of DDAs via third parties.[27] RTP charges a flat $0.045 per-transaction fee for usage “with no volume discounts, no volume commitments and no monthly minimums to ensure that all financial institutions participate on the same terms.”[28] It also charges $0.01 for “request for payment” (rfp) messages, and a success fee of $0.10 if the rfp results in a credit transfer.

That same year, EBA Clearing (which is owned by major European banks) established RT1, a privately owned and operated pan-European RTP system. RT1 was launched Nov. 21, 2017—the same date the European Payments Council (EPC) introduced the SEPA Instant Credit Transfer (SCT Inst) scheme. RT1 is funded by a combination of joining fees (€30,000 per-participant); annual fees (€30,000 per-participant); and transaction fees (including a minimum quarterly fee of €2,500 for up to 5,000 daily transactions, and €0.002 per-transaction thereafter).[29]

These open and transparent systems are undergirded by rigorously established governance systems. TCH describes the governance of its RTP as follows:

Day-to-day management and operation of the network falls to The Clearing House’s management. Management’s performance is overseen, in turn, by The Clearing House’s two boards of directors, which are responsible for managing and overseeing the company’s business and affairs. To assist them in these responsibilities, the boards have established a number of committees, including an RTP Business Committee that advises management on many facets of the network, an Enterprise Risk Committee that exercises companywide oversight over risk management, and an Audit Committee that helps the boards ensure, among other things, reviewing the company’s financial statements and system of internal controls, the qualifications and independence of the company’s external auditor, and the company’s internal audit function.

The RTP Business Committee includes representatives from both financial institutions that have an ownership interest in The Clearing House and those that do not.

The Clearing House’s managing board of directors or the RTP Business Committee is responsible for approving changes to the network’s participation and operating rules.

In addition to the RTP Business Committee, The Clearing House has established a number of other bodies to ensure relevant stakeholder interests are considered in the governance of the RTP network. To that same end, it also participates in the Faster Payments Council, periodically solicits input on the RTP rules, and actively engages with regulatory agencies charged with responsibility for consumer protection and the safety and soundness of the financial sector.[30]

Such robust and inclusive governance structures, with clear accountability, enable private DPI systems to be innovative, as well as responsive to changes in market conditions. In addition, TCH’s RTP is subject to substantial oversight from U.S. government agencies, as it notes:

The Clearing House is highly-regulated, falling under the FFIEC’s Significant Service Provider (SSP) program with respect to its operation of the RTP System, as well as the EPN and Image Exchange Network services. Under the FFIEC framework, TCH is examined each year by a multi-agency team. SSP exams include a broad range of activities including governance, risk management, internal controls, information security, and financial condition. Additionally, TCH, as the operator of CHIPS, has been designated under Title VIII of the Dodd Frank Act as a systemically important financial market utility (SIFMU). Under this designation TCH is subject to continuous supervision by full-time, dedicated Federal Reserve examiners and CHIPS must meet Regulation HH’s enhanced requirements for SIFMUs. As all TCH payment services utilize a common infrastructure and fall under a common governance structure, TCH’s Title VIII supervision and standards benefit all TCH services.[31]

B. Government Owned-and-Operated RTPs

In government-owned and operated RTP systems, the broad governance framework is typically set via legislation, but the ministry or agency tasked with oversight and/or implementation often has considerable discretion to determine details. This may pose concerns when the agency responsible for implementation also regulates other payment systems. In such cases, conflicts of interest can result in regulations that inhibit competition and innovation.

Pix and FedNow are both run by the same entity that regulates payments. But there are important differences between them, both at a macro governance level and in the way that the potential conflicts of interest affect governance in practice. At the macro level, Pix was developed and is run by the same department of the Central Bank of Brazil (Bacen) that sets the regulatory framework for payment networks. By contrast, FedNow is run by the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks under the oversight of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The board is tasked with ensuring the FedNow service operates in accordance with the Federal Reserve’s public-policy objectives and monitors FedNow for compliance with federal regulations and the Fed’s own internal standards. The implications of these differences for operational independence are explored below.

1. Pix

In the case of Pix, Bacen:

  • mandated that all major banks and e-money providers must connect to Pix;
  • set the fees for person-to-person transactions at zero; and
  • set the fee for merchants at a minimal level.

Bacen’s stated rationale for these actions is that banks faced a collective-action problem and had little incentive to jointly build an inexpensive, interoperable RTP system, as Bacen claiming that they profited from card fees and proprietary transfers.[32] Such claims are difficult to reconcile with the U.S. experience with TCH’s RTP, which was built entirely voluntarily by a consortium of America’s largest banks (which are also the largest four-party payment-card issuers).

It also seems contrary to Pix’s primary intended purpose, which was to replace cash and increase financial inclusion.[33] Moreover, Pix’s success in achieving that objective has actually increased the use of other electronic-payment systems, such as credit cards.[34] If Brazilian banks actually opposed creating an interoperable faster payments system in order to maintain profits on existing revenue streams, they were being short-sighted.

Another possible explanation is that, in 2018, Bacen capped interchange fees on debit cards, setting a maximum rate of 0.8% and an average rate of 0.5%.[35] Since average rates had previously been approximately 1.4%, this reduced revenue to issuers by between $400 million and $1 billion.[36] It also created uncertainty: if Bacen was willing to impose price controls on debit-card payments, how would it respond to a new private RTP network? Would it also impose price controls on RTP transactions, thereby making it more difficult for the banks to recoup their investment?

The likely answer to that question materialized shortly before Pix’s rollout. In June 2020, Facebook announced a pilot version of WhatsApp Pay, which would enable anyone with a WhatsApp account and an account with one of four partner banks (Cielo, Banco do Brasil, Sicredi, Nubank) to make instant free account-to-account transfers using their debit card. Instead of embracing this interoperable solution, Bacen shut it down. It did so by issuing a new rule requiring any new payment scheme that “poses risk to the normal operation of retail payment transactions” to be approved by Bacen before it could be marketed.[37] Bacen issued that rule just a week after the new WhatsApp payment service was announced, and then immediately used it to suspend the new service, claiming that it was necessary to “preserve an adequate competitive environment” for mobile payments and to ensure the “functioning of a payment system that’s interchangeable [presumably this means interoperable], fast, secure, transparent, open and cheap.”[38]

Forcibly removing a competitor would appear an odd way to preserve “an adequate competitive environment.” Moreover, it is not clear that the WhatsApp system violated the obligations created by the new rule. While the service initially would have been available only to users with accounts at the four banking partners, it would almost certainly have been expanded; indeed, by the time it was permitted to launch in 2021, the partnership had already grown to nine banks.[39] It is difficult to escape the conclusion that Bacen created the new rule specifically to prevent WhatsApp from launching its payments system prior to the launch of Pix—at the expense of competition, innovation, and financial inclusion.

In sum, while Pix has expanded financial inclusion in Brazil and gained widespread adoption, it has done so, in part, by mandating participation and impeding competition. As such, it is likely less accountable and responsive than might otherwise be the case. One way to reduce these problems would be to transfer Pix’s ownership, control, and direct oversight to a separate operating entity that is not run by the same division of Bacen that regulates payment networks.

2. FedNow

Like other Federal Reserve services (e.g., Fedwire, FedACH), the FedNow service is priced according to the Monetary Control Act (MCA), which requires the Federal Reserve to recover the costs of providing payment services over the long run, rather than operating at a profit. FedNow charges the following fees (except for so-called “on-us” transactions, which are free because they are made within the same bank):[40]

  • A monthly participation fee (currently $25) charged to each routing number (or endpoint) that participates in the service;
  • Per-transaction fees (currently $0.045 per-credit-push transaction);
  • Request for payment fees (currently $0.01); and
  • Return ($1).

As a result, FedNow operates more like a private-sector competitor to TCH, identifying and seeking to fill niches, such as the long tail of financial institutions and the (potentially enormous) opportunity for business-to-business (B2B) payments.[41]

Nonetheless, FedNow’s $540 million development costs and $245 million annual operational costs are both probably higher than they would have been had the system been contracted out to the private sector.[42] In contrast, Bacen claims the cost of developing Pix was only $4 million, and that it costs about $8 million annually to run—both of which are surprisingly low.[43]

C. Hybrid (PPP) Systems

Governance frameworks vary considerably among hybrid PPPs. For example, Thailand’s PromptPay system—developed by the Thai Bankers’ Association and ITMX with backing from the central bank—has been granted considerable independence. While the Bank of Thailand sets default fees, individual participant banks are permitted to vary these.[44] One advantage of having the central bank as a sponsor is that PromptPay has been able to leverage both the Bank of Thailand’s international connections and the private sector’s international network to achieve unprecedented international interoperability.[45]

At the other end of the scale, state actors may be granted a seat on the PPP’s board and such expansive regulatory authority that it has effective control. For example, India’s UPI was developed by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), a not-for-profit company owned by a consortium of banks, but the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)—which was not only the driving force behind UPI—has de-facto control.[46]

1. Thailand’s PromptPay

Thailand’s PromptPay is a PPP initiated by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) as part of its National e-Payment Master Plan. In part, the MOF’s objective was to digitize government-to-person (G2P) transactions—such as tax returns and social-welfare payments—in order to increase transparency and reduce costs. The key partners in PromptPay’s implementation were:

  • Bank of Thailand (BOT), Thailand’s central bank and primary regulator for payment systems, which set the policy framework, regulatory standards, and guidelines for PromptPay. BOT also oversees the broader national payment landscape and ensures alignment with monetary-policy and financial-stability objectives.
  • The Thai Bankers’ Association (commercial banks) and the Government Financial Institutions’ Council (government-owned banks) provided the infrastructure to link millions of customer accounts to PromptPay and manage real-time transaction volumes.
  • National ITMX (Interbank Transaction Management and Exchange) developed and maintains the core technology that enables real-time transfers between different banks, acting as the central switching and clearing infrastructure for PromptPay.

Practically all Thai commercial banks and several non-bank payment-service providers now offer PromptPay services to their customers. They build user-facing apps and services (e.g., mobile banking) that integrate the PromptPay “proxy” feature, allowing individuals to link a mobile number or national ID to their bank account.

Banks pay National ITMX a setup fee to integrate with PromptPay, plus ongoing maintenance fees that vary by usage.[47] Transactions between accountholders at different banks also entail an interchange fee that is set by a committee comprising representatives of member banks.[48] Banks initially charged users a small per-transaction fee for person-to-person and small-business transfers, but most have now eliminated those fees (recovering the wholesale fees from other charges), while high-volume merchants pay a modest fee, such as 15 Baht/transaction.[49]

2. UK Faster Payments Service

The UK’s Faster Payments Service (FPS) was developed through collaboration among several key players in the banking and payments industry, with government playing a facilitating role. The primary organizations involved in establishing and launching Faster Payments include:

  • The Payment Systems Task Force (PSTF)—led by the Office of Fair Trading (OFT), a government body—recognized the need to speed electronic payments in the UK and played a central role in pushing the banking industry to develop a faster, more efficient clearing system.
  • A consortium of the largest UK retail banks provided the funding and governance to implement Faster Payments, including Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds TSB, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), and several others.
  • VocaLink was tasked with designing and building the technical infrastructure for Faster Payments.
  • The Association for Payment Clearing Services (APACS) was the industry body that oversaw UK payment systems in the early stages.

Today, FPS is essentially private: it is overseen by Pay.UK, a private (non-profit) organization with board representation from banks, fintechs, and other payment-service providers.[50] Pay.UK owns and manages FPS’ rulebook, standards, and governance. The FPS is regulated by both the Payment System Regulator, which has a mandate to ensure fair access and promote competition and innovation, and by the Bank of England, which has a mandate to maintain financial stability.

Meanwhile, VocaLink (now owned by Mastercard) continues to operate the core platform that processes real-time transactions. Major banks continue to have direct access to the system, while smaller banks and fintechs can connect indirectly via sponsors.

The advantage of this governance structure is that the operator is not the regulator; banks and third-party payment firms have access if they meet objective criteria, and no single provider is forced to use the services (although in practical terms, any bank not offering Faster Payments would be uncompetitive). The UK regulators have also mandated interoperability—e.g., requiring that fintech payment firms be permitted access to FPS via sponsor banks, and promoting “open banking” APIs that let third-party apps initiate FPS transfers on their customers’ behalf.

3. India’s UPI

India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) is operated by NPCI, a non-profit company established in 2008 by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Indian Bankers Association (IBA).[51] In addition to UPI, the NPCI also operates the country’s two other major retail-payment systems: IMPS and Rupay.[52] Despite being notionally independent, NPCI is substantially controlled by the RBI, which maintains special oversight and has “last word” authority under India’s Payment &?Settlement Systems Act of?2007.[53] As a result, RBI effectively has veto authority over any NPCI decision, leading observers to describe its governance power as a “golden share.”[54]

Launched in 2016, UPI provides an interoperability framework that allows any bank or approved third-party app to plug in, and allows users to send money instantly to any other bank or app. UPI was strongly promoted by the government and the RBI as a public-good infrastructure—part of the so-called “India Stack.” As such, UPI is treated as a public utility subject to aggressive regulation regarding pricing and participation.

In fact, the RBI and government have treated UPI as a free public service. In 2020, they directed that UPI must have zero charges to users and merchants, effectively banning merchant-discount fees (MDR) for the service?.[55] This decision represents a gratuitous regulatory distortion that favors those participants that are able to monetize UPI without relying on MDR, while penalizing other payment systems—such as international payment cards—that use interchange fees to cover the costs and balance the two-sided market (e.g., enabling card issuers to offer fraud protection, rewards, and other benefits to cardholders, thereby encouraging participation).

The consequences have been profound. Google Pay and PhonePe (owned by Walmart) have thrived in the zero-MDR environment, as they are able to monetize the service via other means (such as the sale of data, advertising, and e-commerce). This has enabled the two services to acquire roughly 85% of both the volume and value of transactions on UPI?.[56] By contrast, banks and smaller fintechs that do not have the scale to generate revenue from alternative streams have struggled to gain market share. Even Paytm, the early market leader in mobile wallets pre-UPI, has only 6.8% of the UPI market share by volume and 5.4% by value.[57]

More generally, zero MDR on UPI has inhibited more diverse and innovative payment solutions from flourishing in India?.[58] While many entrepreneurial payment options exist, they are unable to gain traction as pure payment apps and must find additional sources of revenue, such as interest on loans, spreads on stock trading, and insurance.

RBI also imposed a series of restrictions on WhatsApp Pay. In 2018, NPCI permitted WhatsApp to undertake a trial of its payment service, with participation limited to 1 million users.[59] While that may appear superficially reasonable, given that WhatsApp had around 200 million users in India at the time, it meant the company could only offer the service to 0.5% of its users. To make matters worse, RBI imposed data-localization rules on UPI participants, requiring them to store customer data locally in India as of Oct. 18, 2018.[60] Because Facebook/WhatsApp’s technical infrastructure was then still partially reliant on servers outside the country, it was prohibited from expanding its payment services beyond the initial trial.[61]

WhatsApp sought to address RBI’s concerns, and NPCI issued a letter in June 2020 declaring the company to be in compliance.[62] Alas, a nonprofit group then brought a public-interest litigation (PIL) case seeking to block WhatsApp from providing payments, claiming that it remained in violation of the data-localization rules. Whether in response to this PIL or otherwise, NPCI did not increase WhatsApp Pay’s permitted number of users until 2022, when it was allowed to rise to 100 million. By that time, however, WhatsApp had squandered four years of market development and was well behind the market leaders. Indeed, WhatsApp ranked between 10th and 20th in monthly volume and value of transactions in 2022 among apps on UPI.

By 2024, WhatsApp had gradually improved its position, but still ranked only 11th, with just 0.34% of total volume and 0.18% of total value on UPI. RBI finally removed the participant restriction in December 2024, enabling WhatsApp to make payments available to all of its members in India, who now numbering over 600 million—about half of all adults in the country.[63] Nonetheless, as of March 2025, WhatsApp remained 11th among UPI apps, with volume of 0.37% and value of 0.2%.

D. RTP Governance Lessons

A key issue with RTP systems is how their governance structures manage conflicts of interest and ensure regulators’ neutrality and impartiality. When the central bank or government is a direct participant in the market, there is a risk that regulations will be designed in that system’s favor. In Brazil, for example, the central bank’s decision to mandate Pix connectivity and make it free for most uses gave Pix a built-in advantage over competing private networks. Meanwhile, in India, RBI’s golden share in NPCI enabled it to prohibit MDR on UPI, resulting in losses for banking partners and effectively subsidizing the two fintechs able to leverage their ecosystems to dominate UPI payments.

By contrast, the European Union, United Kingdom, and Thailand—and, until recently, the United States—avoided conflicts by separating ownership from regulation. Regulators then set standards (e.g., requiring that payments be interoperable, or that incumbents open up access), while leaving product development and implementation to private entities. For example, the EU’s PSD2 (Revised Payment Services Directive) mandates that banks open their APIs for third-party payment initiation (an interoperability rule). The EU, however, did not build its own payment app—it relies on industry to create services on top of that framework. Similarly, the UK’s Payment Systems Regulator does not run a payment network; it is charged with ensuring that networks operate fairly and that new players can enter. This separation avoids self-preferencing. The regulator isn’t tempted to steer transactions to “its” network, since it has none.

The United States followed that model for years: the Fed provided backbone settlement services (FedWire, ACH) but allowed private networks (Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Zelle) to flourish on top of that backbone. Only recently, with FedNow, has the U.S. central bank extended into retail instant payments. For its part, the Fed has been careful to promise an “even playing field” between FedNow and the private TCH RTP network. Time will tell how that dual-operator situation plays out in the United States, but the Fed is at least required to recoup costs and has set pricing for FedNow at a level similar to TCH’s RTP, thereby avoiding undercutting the private sector unfairly.

IV. DPI Adoption and Financial Inclusion

Proponents of government-run DPI systems often boldly assert that such systems achieve near-miraculous levels of financial inclusion. This typically involves unsophisticated before/after comparisons, along with the implicit assumption that post hoc ergo propter hoc. Understanding the actual role of DPIs, and determining which DPI model is most effective at delivering expanded access to finance, requires us to disentangle many other factors and consider counterfactuals.

A. Adoption

In the case of India, the digital-identity layer (Aadhaar) appears to have facilitated a dramatic increase in the proportion of adults with bank accounts (see Figure 1). While digital IDs have lowered banks’ onboarding costs, and interoperable RTPs have facilitated low-cost person-to-person transfers, other factors have also contributed to the rise in RTP use. Specifically, wider smartphone adoption and cheaper mobile data has facilitated the adoption and use of digital services in general. For instance, the cost of mobile data in India plummeted by more than 95% from 2014 to 2021, from Rs 269 (about $5) per GB to Rs 9.5 (about $0.20).[64] The number of smartphone users also soared to 659 million in 2022, and is expected to reach about 1 billion by 2026?.[65] Such factors have dramatically lowered barriers for consumers to use payment apps.

FIGURE 1: Indian Population with Aadhaar Number and Indian Adults with Bank Account, 2011-2024

SOURCE: UIDAI, World Bank Findex Report[66]

Government subsidy programs have also played a role in both India and Brazil. In India, a financial-inclusion program called Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana created incentives to banks to open accounts for previously unbanked individuals by paying a small transaction fee when direct benefit transfers (DBTs) are made into the account, and by subsidizing insurance offered to “Jan Dhan” account holders.[67] As a result, between 2014 and 2022, banks onboarded 462 million “Jan Dhan” accounts using Aadhaar-based e-KYC.[68] Meanwhile, Brazil’s COVID-relief program Auxílio Emergencial delivered payments to between 30 and 38 million Brazilians via newly created “Poupança Social Digital” (digital savings) accounts at government-run CAIXA?.[69] These initiatives leveraged DPI to channel transfers, giving recipients a reason to open and use accounts. Also important has been the adoption of smartphones, without which most P2P digital transactions would not be possible using the technologies implemented during the past decade.[70] Relatedly, the falling cost of mobile data has almost certainly been a factor driving adoption.

B. Payments

Meanwhile, UPI has seen explosive growth since its launch in 2016, leading some to ascribe to it almost magical powers. But Thailand’s PromptPay and Brazil’s Pix have grown faster both on a per-capita transactions basis (Figure 2) and on a value-of-transactions per-capita basis (Figure 3).

FIGURE 2: Annual Transactions Per-Capita on Various RTPs

SOURCE: BCB, UPI, PromptPay[71]

Indeed, going merely by the increase in the rate of adoption, one might be tempted to think that, of the three systems, Pix is clearly superior. That would be a mistake. As noted in Section IV, Pix has grown in no small part because of self-preferencing by Bacen. Looking only at the numbers for the RTP is misleading, as it ignores other types of payments, each of which have their own characteristics. For example, as noted in the introduction, RTPs lack an embedded credit function. Consumers would therefore be expected to spend less at stores if they only use an RTP-based P2P payment system, as they will be limited to the funds they have in their bank accounts (and any overdraft facilities). By contrast, if consumers also had access to credit cards, they would likely spend more, benefiting merchants.[72]

FIGURE 3: Annual Per-Capita Value of Transactions on Various RTPs (US$)

SOURCE: BCB, UPI, PromptPay[73]

V. Conclusions

The series of case studies presented here demonstrate that, while centralized, state-led DPI governance can rapidly achieve extremely broad reach, it also results in politicized choices and sidelines competitive forces—ultimately impeding innovation. By contrast, decentralized governance harnesses competition and innovation, which may result in somewhat slower expansion of financial-services access, but leads to greater responsiveness and dynamism—and, crucially, reduces the risk of technological lock-in.

The presumption that governments should provide digital public infrastructure is belied by the evidence, which shows that the private sector is perfectly capable of providing most such infrastructure. Identity verification may be an exception, due to decades—and, in some cases, centuries—of state involvement in registries, passports, and other forms of ID, as well as rules relating to KYC and AML that states have deemed to be their purview. But even digital identity benefits from decentralization and competition, as evidenced by the evolution of Estonia’s e-ID and acknowledged by the EU in its recent eID regulation.

The case studies presented here highlight several concerns with DPI initiatives in general, and government-led RTP systems in particular.

A. Governance Concerns

DPI initiatives have raised concerns about governance and security. On the one hand, private-sector initiatives that have benefited from government licenses have raised concerns about inadequate competition.[74] On the other hand, government-led systems that are not subject to appropriate controls can end up dominating markets and restricting competition, especially if regulators favor them over private alternatives.

1. Self-preferencing

Indeed, self-preferencing is a major problem with many government-run payment systems. As we have documented, Brazil’s Bacen initially prohibited the operation of WhatsApp Pay, which had partnered with banks and private-payment networks Visa and Mastercard, and was due to launch five months before the launch of Bacen’s own RTP system, Pix. WhatsApp Pay was eventually permitted nine months later, four months after Pix’s launch of Pix, but Bacen continued to prohibit the use of credit cards on WhatsApp Pay until April 2023.[75]

The Reserve Bank of India has also engaged in widespread and blatant self-preferencing by creating rules that favor its own payment card, RuPay, and its RTP system, UPI.[76]

2. Market distortions

Central banks also typically impose rules that distort markets. RBI effectively blocked WhatsApp Pay’s development by capping the number of users who could send and receive funds.[77] RBI also imposes price controls on the fees that merchants can be charged for accepting a payment on UPI, with the fee capped at zero for most transactions. This means that payment-service providers cannot generate revenue directly from transactions and thus must find it elsewhere, such as through product sponsorship, advertising, and ancillary services. This has so distorted the system that UPI is now almost completely dominated by two companies, Google (through Google Pay) and Walmart (through its Phone Pe subsidiary), which are able to monetize their app-based payment systems without charging merchant-transaction fees. Ironically, a system founded on the premise that it would enable wide interoperability has instead ended up creating a duopoly.

3. Security and fraud

Government-controlled digital IDs can pose major security and fraud risks, especially if appropriate checks are not in place. For example, a bank manager in Bihar, India, was able to access Aadhaar records to open fake accounts in the names of various bank customers, subsequently using those accounts to defraud the government.[78] These and other concerns have led some critics to question the value of Aadhaar.[79]

New fraud and security risks are also emerging as RTPs gain mass adoption. The UK’s Faster Payment network, for instance, has seen a sharp rise in authorized push payment (APP) fraud, in which scammers tricking users into sending money. Losses from APP scams reached £485 million in 2022, but have since fallen following the implementation of additional security measures.[80]

In Brazil, large banks’ mandatory adoption of Pix gave rise to “Pix gangs,” who exploit instant, irrevocable transfers through such tactics as phone scams, phishing, and even on-the-spot kidnappings (so-called “lightning kidnappings”) to coerce victims into sending money?.[81]

These various concerns highlight the importance of ensuring that DPI is well-governed and that it is owned, controlled and regulated in ways that facilitate competition, inclusion, and innovation, while limiting and mitigating new risks.

B. Other Concerns

The push for government-created DPI has also raised a host of related concerns, including replicability, the ability to incorporate external innovations, and the implications for both consumers and merchants.

1. Contingent replicability

While the governance of a DPI system is critical, the circumstances under which it is implemented will have a considerable bearing on its success. In Mexico, the central bank’s Cobro Digital (CoDi) payments system, launched in 2019, achieved only about 8% adoption in its first 1.5 years.[82] Banco de Mexico (Banxico) launched a second payment system in 2023 called Dinero Movil (DiMo), a mobile wallet that can settle on either CoDi or on the older (but better connected) interbank settlement system (SPEI).[83] While DiMo perhaps stands a better chance of achieving widespread adoption than CoDi, it is not clear why it was needed, given the popularity and widespread use of wallets built by private banks and fintechs.[84] Such challenges call into question the presumption that an India Stack-style DPI or a Pix-style RTP should or even could be replicated.

2. Ability to incorporate external innovations

Fintech innovations, such as stablecoins, present competitive alternatives to RTPs. Stablecoins can be used with an increasingly wide range of wallets and can settle quickly and with finality, just like RTPs, but do not require any centra;-bank infrastructure and are very low cost without any subsidy.[85] Moreover, private payment-service providers, such as PayPal and global payment networks Visa and Mastercard, are already building stablecoin solutions in collaboration with banks and fintechs to facilitate global interoperability.[86] Some DPI initiatives could potentially impede the development and rollout of these innovative solutions.

3. Absence of credit function

RTP systems lack an embedded credit function: they move money that people already have but, unlike credit cards, they don’t offer credit lines to buyers. This absence of built-in credit limits the utility of systems like UPI and Pix for consumers and merchants. Since the ability to utilize short-term credit for purchases demonstrably increases ticket sizes, with benefits to merchants, the lack of a credit function is a distinct disadvantage for merchants and the economy as a whole.[87] Unless banks or fintechs are able to add such features on top of the RTP rails in a cost-effective manner, the push by governments to shift payments away from cards and toward RTP-based systems will have net-negative economic effects.

4. Limited protection for consumers

The finality of RTP-based payments means that, once a payment has been initiated, it cannot be stopped or, in most cases, reversed. This is advantageous for sellers, since it reduces counterparty risk, but it has the opposite effect for buyers. If the goods or services purchased using an RTP system are not supplied or do not meet the payor’s expectations, the payor cannot easily initiate a reversal or chargeback, as they could if they paid with a credit card. The payor could send a request-for-payment to the recipient, but the recipient has no obligation to comply. (Pix has introduced procedures designed to recover funds in the case of fraud, but these will seem to work only if the fraudster keeps fraudulently obtained funds in the account into which it was received or perhaps a connected account at the same bank.[88])

C. Avoiding Governance Failure

Underpinning the most serious concerns are governance issues. For example, as demonstrated in the cases of UPI and Pix, where conflicts of interest are not adequately addressed, central banks typically favor their own payment systems over private alternatives. This has the effect of increasing adoption of their system, which may make it seem effective. If banks and fintechs have little alternative but to use the government system, then they will do so regardless of its merits. But high levels of adoption do not necessarily translate into sustainable financial inclusion; such mandates instead end up locking out competitors and undermining innovation.

One way to reduce these conflicts of interest is by implementing rules that require separation between the departments that operate payment systems and the departments that regulate them. Another is to mandate full cost recovery for government-run payments systems. Pix, for example, is implemented and overseen by the same team responsible for regulating payments. It has used that power to create and enforce rules, including arbitrary prices, which give preferential treatment to its own payment system. In contract, FedNow, which is implemented by the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks and overseen by the Federal Reserve Board, has instituted transparent pricing based on cost recovery.

Such protections are important, not least because systems run by central banks that lack private competitors generally have little incentive to respond to competitive pressures through innovation and the adoption of new technologies. As a result, countries with such systems will become locked into outmoded technologies that are less efficient and more costly (although such costs are often hidden from the public).

An analogy may be helpful. Private competition was generally prohibited in communist countries, with dire consequences. For example, the main passenger car produced in East Germany from 1964 onwards was the Trabant 601, which was based on a pre-war design that changed little from the day it was first produced until the last car rolled off the production line in 1990.[89] Trabants rapidly declined in popularity after the fall of the Berlin Wall because people could purchase modern vehicles that were faster, cleaner, and safer. Many of those vehicles came from West Germany, where companies such as BMW, Mercedes, Audi, VW, and Porsche had engaged in fierce competition—not only with each other, but also with overseas companies such as Ford, General Motors, Saab, Volvo, Toyota, and Honda. The result was that they had strong incentives to identify and implement improvements. In other words, countries that permitted competition benefitted from innovation; those that didn’t, didn’t.[90]

Likewise, centralized government-run DPI systems are likely to become expensive, lumbering monopolists—the very thing that the Gates Foundation ascribes to “laissez faire” systems. By contrast, as the case studies in this paper show, when governance is decentralized and the systems are provided by market actors, they tend to be responsive to competitive pressures, developing and adopting innovative solutions.

While governments can help to set the broad legal framework for digital infrastructure, they should not get involved in such questions as which protocol to use for sharing data, where data is stored, how much payment-service providers may charge merchants, how much may be retained by payment-service providers acting for consumers, and many other features best determined by the private sector. Moreover, to the extent that governments do provide digital infrastructure, they should ensure that they do not create rules that favor their system over others or that favor one or more players over other players.

D. Lessons Learned

RTPs clearly contribute to financial inclusion. In many cases, they facilitate a dramatic shift from cash to electronic payments. But where government regulators are also involved in the RTP’s operation, it is important to limit the potential for conflicts of interest. If not properly managed, such conflicts can lead to distorted prices and the crowding out of private competitors, forcing users onto the central banks’ preferred rails (as happened in India and Brazil with UPI and Pix, respectively) and forcing banks to subsidize those rails (for example, by limiting banks’ ability to charge fees that cover their costs). Restrictions on MDR and/or interchange fees also impede competition among both merchant- and consumer-oriented payment facilitators (apps), resulting in distortions to that downstream market. In the case of UPI, this has created something close to a duopoly, crowding out innovative local competitors.

By contrast, the central banks in Thailand, UK, Europe, and the United States have been more neutral and impartial, enabling the RTPs (regardless of the notional governance model) to implement more sustainable market-based pricing, thereby avoiding the distortions created by UPI and Pix.

The effects on innovation are likely significant, but difficult to quantify in the short term, as counterfactuals cannot be known. As new payment technologies like stablecoins gain importance, the lock-in to government-favored RTPs could become increasingly problematic in countries where potential conflicts of interest have not been addressed through appropriate governance structures.

The key lesson from all of this is that, while there is no “one size fits all” solution to the ownership, control, and regulation of digital payments infrastructure, it is important for the governance of whichever entity is in control to be structured in ways that limit opportunities for conflicts of interest and, where they might arise, to have clear procedures to address them.

[1] See Press Release, Gates Foundations Announces $1.27 B in Health and Development Commitments to Advance Progress Toward the Global Goals, Gates Found., (Sep. 21, 2022), https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/media-center/press-releases/2022/09/gates-foundation-unga-global-fund-replenishment-commitment.

[2] Digital Public Infrastructure, Gates Found., https://www.gatesfoundation.org/our-work/programs/global-growth-and-opportunity/digital-public-infrastructure (last visited Jul. 12, 2025).

[3] Id.

[4] Id.

[5] Id.

[6] See David J. Teece, Understanding Dynamic Competition: New Perspectives on Potential Competition, “Monopoly,” and Market Power, Competition Lab, Geo. Wash. U. (Jul. 17, 2024), available at https://competitionlab.gwu.edu/sites/g/files/zaxdzs6711/files/2024-07/understanding-dynamic-competition.pdf.

[7] James M. Buchanan & Gordon Tullock, The Calculus of Consent: Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy (U. Mich. Press, 1962), http://www.econlib.org/library/Buchanan/buchCv3.html.

[8] See Foo Boon Ping, Thailand’s National ITMX-PromptPay Could Have the Most Real-time Cross-border Payment Linkages in the World, The Asian Banker (Jul. 12, 2025), https://www.theasianbanker.com/updates-and-articles/thailands-national-itmx-promptpay-could-have-the-most-real-time-cross-border-linkages-in-the-world.

[9] See Unified Payments Interface (UPI), Nat’l Payments Corps. of India, https://www.npci.org.in/what-we-do/upi/product-overview (last visited Jul. 12, 2025).

[10] See 5 Essential Steps for KYC/AML Onboarding and Compliance, Thomson Reuters (Jun. 24, 2025), https://legal.thomsonreuters.com/blog/5-essential-steps-for-kyc-aml-onboarding-and-compliance.

[11] Identity theft typically involves the acquisition of enough personal details (e.g., Social Security number, date of birth, driver’s license info) to pass automated checks. A criminal might even forge physical ID documents if an in-person branch visit is required. Alternatively, criminals sometimes combine real stolen data (an SSN) with a fictitious name or birthdate to create a “synthetic” identity, which they use to open accounts and cultivate a credit file over time. The use of a synthetic identity avoids direct impersonation of a specific real person but still uses someone else’s SSN—creating problems for the holder of that SSN (and for all the other parties who are defrauded).

[12] Generative Artificial Intelligence Increases Synthetic Identity Fraud Threats, FedPayments Improvement, https://fedpaymentsimprovement.org/wp-content/uploads/sif-toolkit-genai.pdf (last visited Jul. 12, 2025).

[13] Estonia Introduced a New ID Card, e-Estonia (Jan. 23, 2019), https://e-estonia.com/estonia-introduced-a-new-id-card.

[14] See A Unique Identity for the People, Unique Identification Auth. of India, Gov’t of India, available at https://www.uidai.gov.in/images/Aadhaar_Brochure_July_22.pdf (last visited Jul. 12, 2025).

[15] See Aadhaar Authentication API Specification- Version 2.5 (Revision-1), Unique Identification Auth. of India (2022), https://uidai.gov.in/aadhaar_dashboard/india.php.

[16] Id.

[17] See Ajinkya Kawale, Economic Survey: DPI Brings Down KYC Costs to Rs 6 from about Rs 1,000, Bus. Standard (Jul. 22, 2024), https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/economic-survey-dpi-brings-down-kyc-costs-to-rs-6-from-about-rs-1-000-124072201118_1.html.

[18] Yogesh Sapkale, Aadhaar Data Breach Largest in the World, Says WEF’s Global Risk Report and Avast, MoneyLife Found. (Feb. 19, 2019), https://www.moneylife.in/article/aadhaar-data-breach-largest-in-the-world-says-wefs-global-risk-report-and-avast/56384.html; Gopi Dara, TDP Govt Mined Personal Data, Tried to Misuse it: Andhra Pradesh Assembly Committee, Times of India (Sep. 21, 2022), https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/vijayawada/tdp-govt-mined-personal-data-tried-to-misuse-it-andhra-panel/articleshow/94337425.cms (A 2018 data breach allegedly resulted in the entire database—which then contained about 1 billion names, addresses, email addresses, and phone numbers—being made available for about $8. The same year, the state of Talangana was accused of using Aadhaar to “clean up” voter-registration rolls to remove “undesirable” names. Meanwhile, there have been persistent allegations that the Andra Pradesh political party TDP misused Aadhaar data when it was in power from 2016 to 2019).

[19] See Anumeha Yadav, Digital Exclusive: Poor, Elderly Face the Brunt of Aadhaar-Based Authentication Errors, The Wire (Dec. 22, 2024), https://thewire.in/rights/digital-exclusion-poor-elderly-face-the-brunt-of-aadhaar-based-authentication-errors.

[20] See TLS Basics, Internet Soc’y, https://www.internetsociety.org/deploy360/tls/basics (last visited Jul. 12, 2025).

[21] See Lu Zhou et al., Leveraging Zero Knowledge Proofs for Blockchain-based Identity Sharing. A Survey of Advancements, Challenges and Opportunities, 80 J. Info. Sec. Application (Feb. 2024), https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214212623002624.

[22] X-Road Data Exchange, X-Road, https://x-road.global/data-exchange (last visited Jul. 12, 2025).

[23] Nojan Sheybani et al., Zero-Knowledge Proof Frameworks: A Survey, Cornell U. (Feb. 10, 2025), https://arxiv.org/html/2502.07063v1.

[24] See Anthony Ha, Vitalik Buterin Has Reservations About Sam Altman’s World Project, TechCrunch (Jun. 28, 2025), https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/28/vitalik-buterin-has-reservations-about-sam-altmans-world-project.

[25] Does Digital ID Have Risks Even if it’s ZK-Wrapped, Vitalik Buterin’s Website (Jun. 28, 2025), https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2025/06/28/zkid.html.

[26] See Frequently Asked Questions, The Clearing House, https://www.theclearinghouse.org/payment-systems/rtp/institution (last visited Jul. 12, 2025).

[27] Id.

[28] RTP Participant Fee Schedule, The Clearing House, available at https://www.theclearinghouse.org/-/media/New/TCH/Documents/Payment-Systems/RTP/RTP_Pricing_01-01-2025.pdf?rev=7f805ed190e64ca0abe76d7694f1153b&hash=12EC40D45290074281670FD2A9CCE42A (last visited Jul. 12, 2025).

[29] See RT1 System Pricing, EBA Clearing, https://www.ebaclearing.eu/services-instant-payments/rt1/pricing (last visited Jul. 14, 2025).

[30] The Clearing House, supra note 26.

[31] Id.

[32] Pix Management Report, Conception and First Years of Operation, Banco Cent. do Brasil (2022), available at https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/estabilidadefinanceira/pix/relatorio_de_gestao_pix/pix_management_report_2023.pdf.

[33] See Angelo Duarte et al., Central Banks, the Monetary System and Public Payment Infrastructures: Lessons from Brazil’s Pix, BIS Bull. No. 52, at 1 (Mar. 23, 2022), https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull52.htm.

[34] Matheus Sampaio & Jose Renato Haas Ornelas, Payment Technology Complementarities and their Consequences on the Banking Sector, (May 27, 2025), SSRN, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5002235.

[35] See Fumiko Hayashi & Jesse Leigh Maniff, Public Authority Involvement in Payment Card Markets: Various Countries, Fed. Rsrv. Bank of Kan. City (2023), available at https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/8287/PublicAuthorityInvolvementPaymentCardMarkets_VariousCountries_August2021Update.pdf.

[36] Id.

[37] See Circular BACEN/DC Nº 4031 DE 23/06/2020, Legisweb (Jun. 24, 2020), https://www.legisweb.com.br/legislacao/?id=397401.

[38] Manish Singh, Brazil Suspends WhatsApp’s Payments Service, TechCrunch (Jun. 23, 2020), https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/23/brazil-orders-to-suspend-whatsapp-pay-week-after-rollout.

[39] See WhatsApp Payments Launches in Brazil with Nine Partner Banks, Leaders League (May 20, 2021), https://www.leadersleague.com/en/news/whatsapp-payments-launches-in-brazil-with-nine-partner-banks.

[40] FedNow Service 2025 Fee Schedule, Fed. Rsrv., https://www.frbservices.org/resources/fees/fednow-2025 (last visited Jul. 14, 2025).

[41] Miriam Sheril, FedNow at Two: Building Real-Time Rails That Work for the U.S., Form3 (Jul. 2025), https://www.form3.tech/news/payment-insights/fednow-at-two-building-real-time-rails-that-work-for-the-us (last visited Jul. 24, 2025).

[42] See Frequently Asked Questions, Bd. of Governors of the Fed. Rsrv., https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/fednow_faq.htm#:~:text=To%20provide%20new%20services%20for,decide%20to%20adopt%20instant%20payments (last visited Jul. 14, 2025).

[43] Michael Pooler, Brazil Counts Success with Pix Payments Tool, Fin. Times (Sep. 18, 2023), https://www.ft.com/content/e1c7b0e7-4c17-40c4-8e03-16c698674efa; Lynne Marek, FedNow Racks Up Nearly $246M in Annual Expenses, Payments Dive (Dec. 4, 2024), https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/federal-reserve-fednow-payments-system-annual-expense-quarterly-statistics/734577 (This number, which appears suspiciously low, has been bandied around by journalists, including in the Financial Times, but I could not find a reliable source. The FT piece simply says “according to the BCB.” See Michael Pooler, Brazil Counts Success with Pix Payments Tool, Financial Times (Sep. 17, 2023)).

[44] See World Bank Fast Payments Toolkit Case Study: Thailand, World Bank (2016), available at https://fastpayments.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2021-09/World_Bank_FPS_Thailand_PromptPay_Case_Study.pdf.

[45] Ping, supra note 8.

[46] See Aditi Routh, The Role of Nonbanks and Fintechs in Boosting India’s UPI Person-to-Merchant Transactions, Fed. Rsrv. Bank of Kan. City (2024), https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/payments-system-research-briefings/the-role-of-nonbanks-and-fintechs-in-boosting-indias-upi-person-to-merchant-transactions.

[47] World Bank, supra note 44 at 19.

[48] Id. (This is the Joint Steering Committee of the Payment Systems Office (PSO), constituted under the Thai Bankers Association).

[49] See Convenient and Safe! With PromptPay for Business, KBank, https://www.kasikornbank.com/en/business/promptpay/pages/promptpay-for-business.aspx (last visited Jul. 14, 2025).

[50] See Board Members, Pay.UK, https://www.wearepay.uk/who-we-are/our-organisation/board (last visited Jul. 14, 2025).

[51] See NPCI Profile, Nat’l Payments Corp. of India, https://www.npci.org.in/npci-profile (last visited July 14, 2025).

[52] Id.

[53] See The Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007, India Code, https://www.indiacode.nic.in/bitstream/123456789/2082/4/a2007-51.pdf (last visited July 15, 2025).

[54] See PFMI Disclosure Report March 2024, Nat’l Payments Corp. of India, https://www.npci.org.in/who-we-are/risk-management/pfmi-disclosure-report-march-2024 (last visited Jul. 15, 2025); Ashwin Manikandan, RBI to Regulate NPCI, Retail Payment Systems with Increased Oversight, Econ. Times (Jun. 13, 2020), https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/rbi-to-regulate-npci-retail-payment-systems-with-increased-oversight/articleshow/76361543.cms?from=mdr.

[55] Discussion Paper on Charges in Payment Systems, Rsrv. Bank of India, https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=21082#:~:text=in%20the%20transaction.-,iii.,%2C%20effective%20January%201%2C%202020 (last visited Jul. 16, 2025).

[56] See Julian Morris, Digital Payments and Financial Inclusion, Int’l Ctr. L. & Econ. (Sep. 24, 2024), https://laweconcenter.org/resources/digital-payments-and-financial-inclusion.

[57] Id.

[58] Id.

[59] See PTI, WhatsApp Allowed Beta Test with Limited User base, Low Transaction Limit: NPCI, Indian Express (Feb. 17, 2018), https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-news-technology/whatsapp-allowed-beta-test-with-limited-user-base-low-transaction-limit-npci-5067368.

[60] See Geetha Nandikotkur, WhatsApp Pay Faces One More Hurdle, BankInfoSecurity (Jun. 21, 2019), https://www.bankinfosecurity.asia/whatsapp-pay-faces-one-more-hurdle-a-12674.

[61] WhatsApp Payments Rollout Delayed in India, PYMNTS (Jul. 20, 2018), https://www.pymnts.com/news/payments-innovation/2018/whatsapp-payments-rollout-delay-india-facebook.

[62] Digbijay Mishra, NPCI Confirms WhatsApp Pay’s Data Localisation, Times of India (Jul. 29, 2020), https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/npci-confirms-whatsapp-pays-data-localisation/articleshow/77228456.cms.

[63] See WhatsApp Pay Can Now Extend UPI Services to all Users in India, Nat’l Payments Corps. of India (Dec. 31, 2024), available at https://www.npci.org.in/PDF/npci/press-releases/2024/NPCI-Press-Release-WhatsApp-Pay-Can-Now-Extend-UPI-Services-To-All-Users-in-India.pdf.

[64] See Nidhi Jacob, Fact Check: Internet Has Become Cheaper in India – but Not as Much as the Coal Ministry Claims, Scroll.In (Jul. 7, 2022), https://scroll.in/article/1027718/fact-check-internet-has-become-cheaper-in-india-but-not-as-much-as-the-coal-ministry-claims.

[65] See Sunil Gill, How Many People Own Smartphones in the World?, Priori Data (Jan. 1, 2025), https://prioridata.com/data/smartphone-stats; India Calling: Decoding the Country’s Electronics Manufacturing Journey and the Way Forward, PWC (2023), available at https://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/india-calling-decoding-the-countrys-electronics-manufacturing-journey-and-the-way-forward/india-calling-decoding-the-countrys-electronics-manufacturing-journey-and-the-way-forward.pdf.

[66] UIDAI Annual Report 2022-23, available at https://uidai.gov.in/images/UIDAI_Annual_Report-2022-23_English.pdf; Global Findex Database 2025, World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/globalfindex/download-data (last visited Jul. 14, 2025).

[67] See Nidhi Agarwala et al., Efficiency of Indian Banks in Fostering Financial Inclusion: An Emerging Economy Perspective, Nat’l Libr. Med., https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9817463 (last visited Jul. 14, 2025).

[68] Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) – National Mission for Financial Inclusion, Completes Eight Years of Successful Implementation, Press Info. Bureau, https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1854909 (last visited Jul. 17, 2025).

[69] Auxilio Emergencial: Lessons from the Brazilian Experience Responding to COVID-19, World Bank (2021), available at https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099255012142121495/pdf/P1748361b302ee5718913146b11956610692e4faf5bc.pdf; Enrollment and Eligibility Process of Brazil’s Auxilio Emergencial, World Bank (2021), available at https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099255012142136232/pdf/P1748360d7131402e086730fbce1d687fa1.pdf.

[70] SMS-based transactions, as M-Pesa began implementing in 2005, would have been possible.

[71] Pix Statistics, Banco Cent. Do Brasil, https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/financialstability/pixstatistics (last visited Jul. 17, 2025); PromptPay Statistics, Bank of Thailand, https://app.bot.or.th/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=921&language=ENG (last visited Jul. 18, 20o25); UPI Product Statistics, Nat. Payments Corp. of India, https://www.npci.org.in/what-we-do/upi/product-statistics (last visited Jul. 18, 2025); Population Estimates and Projections, World Bank, https://databank.worldbank.org/source/population-estimates-and-projections (last visited Jul. 18, 2025).

[72] See Julian Morris & Ben Sperry, The Cost of Payments: A Review, Int’l Ctr. L. & Econ. (Aug. 28, 2024), https://laweconcenter.org/resources/the-cost-of-payments-a-review.

[73] Id.

[74] Njuguna S. Ndung’u, A Digital Financial Services Revolution in Kenya: The M-Pesa Case Study, Afr. Econ. Rsch. Consortium, available at https://aercafrica.org/old-website/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/AERC-MPesa-Case-Study.pdf  (last visited Jul. 17, 2025).

[75] Marcel Van Oost, The Success Story of WhatsApp Payments in Brazil, Connecting the Dots in FinTech (Aug. 2, 2024), https://www.connectingthedotsinfin.tech/the-success-story-of-whatsapp-payments-in-brazil.

[76] See Saloni Shukla, RBI Allows RuPay Credit Card Transactions on UPI, Econ. Times (Jun. 9, 2022), https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technology/rbi-allows-rupay-credit-card-transactions-on-upi/articleshow/92090548.cms?from=mdr; Adriana Nunez, RuPay and UPI Get Multimillion-Dollar Support from Indian Government, EMarketer (Jan. 12, 2023), https://www.emarketer.com/content/rupay-upi-multimillion-dollar-support-indian-government.

[77] As documented above, the number of permitted users was initially below 1%, meaning that WhatsApp could not benefit from its own scale.

[78] Neelanjit Das, Kotak Mahindra Bank Branch Manager Siphoned Off Rs 31 Crore of Public Money to Gamble; Know How he Misused Customer’s KYC Details, Econ. Times (Jul. 5, 2025), https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/wealth/legal/will/kotak-mahindra-bank-branch-manager-looted-rs-31-crore-of-public-money-to-gamble-know-how-he-misused-customers-kyc-details/articleshow/122249626.cms.

[79] See Pam Dixon, A Failure to “Do No Harm” – India’s Aadhaar Biometric ID Program and its Inability to Protect Privacy in Relation to Measures in Europe and the U.S., Nat’l Libr. Med. (2017), https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5741784; Nicolas Belorgey & Christophe Jaffrelot, Identifying 1.4 Billion Indians Biometrically? Corporate World, State, and Civil Society, Portail HAL Scis. Po (2024), available at https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-04845547/file/identifying_1.4_billion_indians_biometrically.pdf.

[80] See Over € 1.2 Billion Stolen Through Fraud in 2022, With Nearly 80 Per Cent of APP Fraud Cases Starting Online, U.K. Fin., https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/news-and-insight/press-release/over-ps12-billion-stolen-through-fraud-in-2022-nearly-80-cent-app (last visited Jul. 17, 2025); Over € 570 Million Stolen by Fraudsters in the First Half of 2024, U.K. Fin., https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/news-and-insight/press-release/over-ps570-million-stolen-fraudsters-in-first-half-2024 (last visited Jul. 17, 2025).

[81] David Feliba, Feature- ‘Pix Gangs’ Cash in on Brazil’s Mobile Payments Boom, Reuters (Jun. 14, 2023), https://www.reuters.com/article/markets/feature-pix-gangs-cash-in-on-brazils-mobile-payments-boom-idUSL8N37Z4E1.

[82] Behind the Struggle of Mexico’s CoDi, Vixio (Aug. 18, 2022), https://www.vixio.com/insights/pc-behind-struggle-mexicos-codi#:~:text=Launched%20in%202019%2C%20CoDi%20processed,of%20existence%2C%20moving%20around%20BRL5.

[83] Can DiMo Promote Financial Inclusion in Mexico?, PCMI, https://paymentscmi.com/insights/dimo-financial-inclusion-mexico/#:~:text=Launched%20in%20March%202023%20by,only%20a%20recipient’s%20phone%20number (last visited Jul. 17, 2025).

[84] Mexico’s E-Commerce and Digital Payments Growth Era: A Strategic Opportunity for Global Merchants, PPRO (Apr. 11, 2025), https://www.ppro.com/insights/mexicos-e-commerce-and-digital-payments-growth-era.

[85] Average Transaction Fee, Polygon P0L, https://tokenterminal.com/explorer/projects/polygon/metrics/transaction-fee-average (last visited Jul. 17, 2025), (A typical USDT or USDC transaction on a fast layer 1 chain, such as Solana, or an Ethereum layer 2 chain, such as Polygon, costs fractions of a cent).

[86] Visa Expands Stablecoin Settlement Capabilities to Merchant Acquirers, Visa (Sep. 5, 2023), https://investor.visa.com/news/news-details/2023/Visa-Expands-Stablecoin-Settlement-Capabilities-to-Merchant-Acquirers/default.aspx; Marek, supra note 42.

[87] Morris & Sperry, supra note 71.

[88] Pix Frequently Asked Questions, Banco Cent. Do Brasil, https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/financialstability/pixfaqen, at 14 (last visited Jul. 17, 2025).

[89] Trabant, Cult Classics, https://www.howandwhy.com/world/the-trabant-is-why-socialism-failed (last visited Jul. 17, 2025), (This comparison between the Trabant and Subaru is opposite).

[90] See A Drive in the World’s Worst Car, How and Why (Nov. 4, 2022), https://www.howandwhy.com/world/the-trabant-is-why-socialism-failed. (This comparison between the Trabant and Subaru is opposite).

ICLE White Paper

You Can’t Break the Laws of Economics

Nearly every week, someone writing for a major news outlet argues that economics has failed. Our models are too abstract. Our predictions are always wrong. President Trump’s recent firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer is the latest notable example of this anti-economics sentiment.

Let me make what appears to have become a radical argument: Simple economics is surprisingly good at making real-world predictions.

Read the full piece here.

Popular Media (ICLE)

Do Ecosystems Exist in EU Competition Law?

Abstract

At first glance, questioning the existence of ecosystems in competition law may seem merely provocative. After all, the term is pervasive in the antitrust debate, where competition in today’s digital world is routinely described as a race between and within ecosystems. Accordingly, new theories of harm and substantial adjustments to traditional antitrust analysis are frequently invoked. However, upon closer examination, doubts arise about the actual novelty of the concept. While the term ‘ecosystem’ evocatively captures the seemingly irrepressible expansion of digital conglomerates, the paper investigates whether it is also grounded in a genuinely distinctive analytical framework and legal theory.

Read at SSRN.

Scholarship (ICLE)

ICLE Comments on State Laws Having Significant Adverse Effects on the National Economy or Interstate Commerce

I. Introduction

Thank you for the opportunity to respond to the U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) and the National Economic Council’s (NEC) request for information on state laws, regulations, policies, and practices that adversely affect interstate commerce and business activities in other states.

The request correctly identifies a critical and growing threat to the American common market: the growing tendency of individual states—particularly those with large economies—to enact regulations that project their policy preferences nationwide. This practice imposes significant economic burdens on out-of-state businesses and consumers, creating negative externalities, stifling innovation, and undermining the principles of federalism and the Commerce Clause, which have been the bedrock of U.S. economic prosperity for more than two centuries. This phenomenon can be described as a form of regulatory protectionism achieved through market power. It represents a fundamental challenge to the constitutional design of a unified national economy.

The International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization whose core mission is to promote the application of law & economics methodologies to inform public-policy discussion. Our work focuses on developing intellectually rigorous, data-driven analyses to foster efficient policy solutions that enhance consumer welfare and global economic growth. Earlier this year, ICLE submitted comments to the DOJ and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) regarding anticompetitive regulatory barriers, which are included as an appendix to these comments.[1]

From the perspective of law & economics, the optimal legal regime is one that minimizes transaction costs and allows for the efficient allocation of resources across jurisdictions. A patchwork of conflicting state regulations governing national markets achieves the opposite; it erects barriers to trade, dramatically increases compliance costs, and leads to a fragmentation of the national economy. Such regulatory fragmentation prevents firms from achieving economies of scale, distorts investment decisions, and ultimately harms consumers through higher prices and reduced choice.

The frequent thread across these disparate regulatory areas is commonly known as the “California Effect,” referring to that state’s strategic use of its immense population (12% of U.S. population)  and market power (14% of U.S. GDP) as leverage to impose its regulatory will on the entire nation. Out-of-state firms are faced with a coercive choice: either adopt California’s standards for all of their national operations or forfeit access to the nation’s largest state economy. This dynamic creates de-facto national standards without national consensus or congressional deliberation, fundamentally distorting the principles of federalism.

For instance, the DOJ was right to file suit against California for its burdensome regulations on the production of eggs.[2] California laws effectively drive up the price of eggs for the whole nation by regulating the allowable space of confinement for chickens, and making it illegal to sell eggs produced out of state that do not conform to these laws. This is despite the California Department of Food and Agriculture admitting there being no basis in science that these regulations “reduce food-borne illnesses… or [address] other human or safety concerns.”[3]

The California Effect is not limited to California, however, as the strategy is now employed by numerous states seeking to establish themselves as “leaders” in advancing specific social or environmental policies. The dynamic is most visible in vehicle emissions, where 17 states and the District of Columbia have voluntarily adopted California’s stricter standards, creating a regulatory bloc that controls more than 40% of the U.S. auto market and effectively sets a national standard. This pattern extends to other areas, as well. Numerous states have followed California’s lead by enacting their own data-privacy and climate-disclosure requirements.

Officials in states like New York, New Jersey, and Maryland have openly celebrated their adoption of California’s standards as a means to achieve their own policy goals. This trend illustrates a broader shift in federalism, where multiple states—driven by their own policy ambitions—are willing to create regulatory patchworks that impose their preferences on the national economy, leading to the very balkanization that the Commerce Clause was designed to prevent.

Compounding this problem is a clear trend of judicial reticence. Recent Supreme Court jurisprudence, particularly in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross[4] and in the denial of certiorari in the challenge to California’s Assembly Bill 5,[5] signals a significant retreat from the judiciary’s traditional role in policing state laws with extraterritorial effects under the Dormant Commerce Clause or many federal preemption statutes.

The Court has shown a reluctance to weigh a state law’s asserted local benefits against its out-of-state economic harms, effectively weakening a key constitutional check on state overreach. This judicial deference implicitly shifts the primary venue for resolving such disputes from the courts to Congress and the executive branch. The political branches must therefore act to reassert federal authority over interstate commerce.

II. A Practical Note on Tactical Considerations

The DOJ, in particular, has an important role to play in promoting a common market and economic growth through the use of advocacy and litigation. Workshops and research on the national effects of state laws could go a long way toward establishing a record for future legislation and litigation.

The DOJ should also engage in strategic litigation of its own, and submit amicus briefs in cases brought by others, targeting state laws with negative extraterritorial effects. As noted above, the DOJ’s intervention against California’s laws regulating the egg industry could, if successful, have positive effects on the pocketbooks of Americans nationwide.

In order to be most effective in litigation, the DOJ should focus on federal laws and regulatory schemes that offer field preemption or something like the “significant interference” standard from federal banking law.[6] In these situations, courts are much more likely to find federal law preempts harmful extraterritorial state laws. As noted above, Dormant Commerce Clause arguments have been significantly weakened by recent Supreme Court jurisprudence. Similarly, Supremacy Clause arguments based on conflict preemption are also much more difficult to sustain, as states need only to show that affected parties can comply with both federal and state law in order to survive.

For instance, the Federal Meat Inspection Act preemption clause has been found to “sweep[] widely” and, as such, it “prevents a State from imposing additional or different—even if non-conflicting—requirements that fall within the scope of the Act.”[7] In that case, preemption applies “[w]here under federal law a slaughterhouse may take one course of action in handling a nonambulatory pig, [but] under state law the slaughterhouse must take another.”[8] Similarly, as detailed further below,[9] federal banking laws like the National Banking Act allow nationally chartered banks to exercise certain powers that state law cannot prevent and with which it cannot significantly interfere.

The DOJ should also continue to advocate for the application of the Dormant Commerce Clause against state laws that would fail the Pike balancing test accepted by the plurality of the Supreme Court in National Pork Producers Council. The DOJ should also advocate for a stronger Dormant Commerce Clause in select cases where the harms caused by state laws are especially clear.

Below, in addition to legislative solutions, we offer examples of laws that the DOJ and other executive agencies should consider in their efforts to restore a common market and promote economic growth.

III. Automobile-Dealer Franchise Laws

State automobile-dealer franchise laws are anachronistic, anticompetitive, and unconstitutional relics of a market that ceased to exist more than half a century ago. They serve no legitimate public-policy purpose. Instead, they function as a classic example of crony capitalism, where a politically powerful special interest group has captured the legislative process to protect itself from competition and innovation. The costs of this protectionist regime are borne by the entire nation in the form of higher prices, reduced consumer choice, suppressed technological advancement, and a fragmented national market.[10]

To wit, this section details the economic harms and legal infirmities of these protectionist statutes. It urges the DOJ and NEC to pursue a coordinated federal strategy to dismantle these barriers and restore competition to the U.S. automobile market.

The origins of franchise laws trace to a period from the 1930s to the 1950s when the U.S. automobile market was overwhelmingly dominated by the “Big Three” domestic manufacturers.[11] In this environment, manufacturers were perceived to be abusing their superior bargaining power to pursue exploitative practices. States responded by passing rules governing automotive franchise laws, ultimately leading to statutes in all 50 states. Critically, the intent behind these state laws was to rebalance power in interbrand relationships: that is, the laws were intended to address the carmakers’ vertical power over their own network of franchised dealers.

State laws from this period included bars on various activities, from compelling dealers to accept otherwise unwanted vehicles, to terminating franchise status without cause, to granting additional franchises within an existing dealer’s franchise area. Yet among the vestigial prohibitions, the ban on manufacturers selling directly to consumers is at once the most obviously disruptive to commerce and the most unmoored from the laws’ original rationale. Indeed, the entire legal regime was premised upon the interaction between a manufacturer and a franchisee, and the relative power in that relationship.

The contemporary automobile marketplace bears no resemblance to its mid-20th Century antecedent. The relative market share of the “Big Three” has dropped from roughly 90% in the 1950s to just 40% today.[12] Interbrand competition has come to define the market and has rendered effectively moot concerns about powerful franchisors coercing dealers—an industry that has itself evolved from “mom and pop” operations to large publicly traded conglomerates.

The persistence of dealer franchise laws, despite the utter evaporation of the market conditions that led to their adoption, is a textbook example of regulatory capture, as predicted by Public Choice Theory. In this case, the interest group (auto dealers) has hijacked the policy process to generate rents, while distributing the associated costs broadly to consumers. For example, in Michigan, the state passed an update to its franchise act at the behest of dealers specifically to preclude Tesla from the market.[13]

Blocking new entrants from the automotive marketplace on the basis of their preference for direct sales is legally unsupportable. Indeed, the market’s new entrants—such as Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, and Scout—have no franchisees to protect. There is simply no interbrand relationship to regulate, as has been recognized by at least one state supreme court.[14] The core analytical flaw in every defense of dealer franchise laws is this fundamental category error: they conflate the legitimate (albeit outdated) regulation of an existing vertical relationship with the illegitimate prohibition of a competing business model.

The Dormant Commerce Clause prohibits states from enacting laws that facially discriminate against, or place an undue burden upon, interstate commerce. State dealer franchise laws discriminate against interstate commerce by dictating a specific business structure that an out-of-state manufacturer must adopt to access that state’s market. Arguments about public health and safety offered by dealers are clearly pretextual, and have been consistently debunked by legal scholars, economists, and FTC staff.[15]

Even if found not to be discriminatory, dealer franchise laws still fail the balancing test the Supreme Court articulated in Pike v. Bruce Church, Inc., which held that a state law may be held invalid if “the burden imposed on such commerce is clearly excessive in relation to the putative local benefits.”[16]

The burden of dealer franchise laws bears considerable weight, since it impacts both consumers and the development of an entirely new set of entrants to the automotive market, and thereby price-moderating competition. The costs borne by the latter were highlighted in a 2009 paper by a DOJ economist, citing a Goldman Sachs report. The report estimated that direct distribution could reduce the cost of a new vehicle by as much as 8.6% (more than $2,200 per vehicle) through efficiencies in matching supply with demand, lower inventory costs, and reduced sales commissions.[17] In effect, in agitating to uphold such laws, dealers seek to mandate a hidden tax on most vehicle purchases in the nation.

To address these issues, the DOJ should take action. Specifically, the DOJ’s Anticompetitive Regulations Task Force should:

  1. issue a formal report detailing the anticompetitive harms of state direct-sales prohibitions;
  2. file statements of interest and amicus curiae briefs in ongoing private litigation challenging these laws, lending the federal government’s legal weight to the cause of competition, much as legal and economic scholars have done in cases like Lucid v. Georgia; and
  3. explore direct legal challenges against states, arguing that their laws are unconstitutional under the Dormant Commerce Clause or are otherwise preempted by federal policy.

IV. State and Local Land-Use Regulations

While land-use regulation is traditionally a local prerogative, a growing body of economic research demonstrates that the cumulative effect of overly restrictive local zoning and development policies, particularly in the nation’s most productive metropolitan areas, has created a formidable barrier to interstate commerce. These regulations—including urban growth boundaries (UGBs), inclusionary zoning mandates, restrictive design reviews, and excessive system-development charges (SDCs)—artificially constrain the supply of housing and inflate its cost.

The primary interstate burden of these local policies is the impediment to labor mobility. By making it prohibitively expensive for Americans to move to areas with the greatest economic opportunity, these regulations misallocate the nation’s most valuable resource—its human capital. Workers in lower-productivity regions are effectively trapped, unable to access higher-wage jobs in more dynamic economies, which in turn suppresses national economic growth, reduces overall productivity, and exacerbates regional inequality.

Restrictive land-use regulations directly drive up housing costs to levels far exceeding the physical cost of construction. Research demonstrates that these policies are a primary cause of housing unaffordability in highly regulated markets, such as those on the West Coast.[18] For example, Oregon’s UGBs have been shown to constrain land supply and contribute to housing-price increases. Since Portland, Oregon’s adoption of its UGB, the local home-price index has increased at an annual rate 27% higher than the national average.[19]

Similarly, inclusionary zoning ordinances, which require developers to sell or rent a percentage of new units below market rates, function as a tax on new construction. This can reduce the overall supply of housing and increase the cost of market-rate units. Portland’s implementation of such an ordinance was followed by an immediate and significant drop in new multifamily housing permits, from an annual average of 3,915 to just 1,709 in the first full year.[20] Excessive SDCs and lengthy design-review processes add further costs and uncertainty.

The most significant interstate consequence of these inflated housing costs is the creation of a barrier to labor mobility. High housing prices in the nation’s most productive cities prevent workers from moving to take advantage of better job opportunities. This geographical misallocation of labor has a depressive effect on aggregate economic growth. Businesses in high-cost areas struggle to attract and retain workers, while the national economy suffers from a less efficient allocation of talent.

Direct federal preemption of local zoning is politically difficult and faces legal challenges, as land use is a power traditionally reserved to the states and delegated to localities. This does not, however, render the problem intractable to federal action. The federal government has a long and established history of using its spending power to influence state and local policy, particularly in the realm of housing and infrastructure.

Congress and the executive branch should condition federal funding from programs such as the Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) program, the HOME Investment Partnerships Program, and federal transportation grants on state and local governments implementing meaningful reforms to their land-use and zoning regulations. Such reforms should include, but not be limited to, eliminating or expanding UGBs; legalizing higher-density housing “by right” (especially near transit); streamlining permitting processes; and ensuring that development fees are proportional to the marginal cost of providing new services.[21] This creates a powerful reason for localities to internalize the national economic costs of their restrictive policies.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is the agency with the primary expertise and programmatic infrastructure to administer such an incentive-based system. The U.S. Transportation Department (DOT) should also be involved to ensure that its grantmaking encourages transit-oriented development and corresponding zoning reform.

V. Prevailing-Wage Laws

We noted in our earlier comments to the DOJ and FTC that prevailing-wage laws and project labor agreements (PLAs) represent significant regulatory interventions in construction-labor markets that substantially distort competition, inflate costs, and create artificial barriers to market entry.[22] These regulations—including the federal Davis-Bacon Act (1931), state “Little Davis-Bacon” acts,  and government-mandated PLAs—fundamentally alter market dynamics by imposing wage floors and labor terms that would not emerge under competitive conditions.

Traditionally, prevailing-wage laws and PLAs have had little effect on interstate commerce. This year, however, Oregon enacted HB 2688, which will have far-reaching effects on interstate—and possibly international—commerce.[23] The law extends state-specific prevailing-wage requirements to offsite manufacturing, regardless where that manufacturing occurs. While such laws apply to labor performed at the physical jobsite of a public project, the Oregon law expands this mandate to cover the offsite fabrication of “bespoke” or custom-made components, such as HVAC systems, structural elements, and plumbing systems.

This is a clear attempt by a state to regulate economic activity far beyond its borders. This extraterritorial application of state law violates the principles of the Commerce Clause, creates economic protectionism that harms Oregon-based businesses, and could impose substantial costs on public-infrastructure projects nationwide.

The critical issue of federal concern is the law’s explicit extraterritorial reach. Under HB 2688, a manufacturing firm producing a custom part for an Oregon public-works project in another state would be legally required to pay its workers Oregon’s prevailing wage for that work. This is a direct attempt by one state to impose its labor and wage standards on businesses operating entirely within the jurisdiction of other states.

The Dormant Commerce Clause prohibits states from enacting laws that unduly burden or discriminate against interstate commerce. HB 2688 is a clear violation of this principle. It is not an incidental effect, as the law is explicitly designed to control the wages paid for manufacturing that occurs outside of Oregon. This creates a direct burden on out-of-state firms, forcing them to comply with Oregon’s wage scales, which may differ significantly from the wages and economic conditions in their own localities.

Federal intervention is necessary to prevent Oregon from setting a precedent that could lead to a fractured national economy, where every state attempts to apply its own labor laws to any product that crosses its borders. The DOJ should challenge the law in federal court before its July 1, 2026 effective date by seeking an injunction to prevent its enforcement. The legal argument should focus on the law’s explicit extraterritoriality and its discriminatory effect on interstate commerce. Congress could also enact legislation clarifying that state prevailing-wage laws cannot be applied to manufacturing and fabrication that occurs outside the state’s geographic boundaries.

The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) has primary subject-matter expertise in this area, as it administers the federal Davis-Bacon Act, which governs prevailing wages on federally funded projects. The DOL can provide essential analysis on the burdens that extraterritorial state wage laws place on the national labor and manufacturing markets. The DOJ would be the appropriate agency to initiate legal action to enjoin the law.

VI. Certificates of Convenience and Necessity and Certificates of Need

We noted in our earlier comments to the DOJ and FTC that certificates of convenience and necessity (CCNs) and certificate-of-need (CON) laws represent some of the most formidable government-imposed barriers to market entry across numerous regulated industries.[24] CCNs and CONs are formal authorizations that permit companies to initiate operations or construct facilities in specific geographic areas. They effectively create government-sanctioned monopolies or oligopolies that undermine basic economic principles of competition.

CCNs are commonly required for private firms to provide various utilities—such as electric, gas, and water services—but may also be required to provide various services deemed to be common carriers. Health-care facilities may be subject to CONs and certificates of public advantage (COPAs). Each of these “certificate” laws are explicitly designed to protect incumbent, in-state providers from new competition—including from out-of-state businesses—thereby creating direct and substantial burdens on the national market.

The primary adverse impact of these laws is the erection of anticompetitive barriers to entry. CON laws, which apply to the health-care sector in 35 states and the District of Columbia, prevent out-of-state medical providers from establishing new facilities or offering innovative services unless they can prove to a state board—often composed of their potential competitors—that their service is “needed.” This process is notoriously burdensome and expensive, often taking years and costing tens of thousands of dollars in fees. It effectively insulates existing hospitals and providers from competition. The Institute for Justice has argued that the system violates the Dormant Commerce Clause by restricting the interstate market in medical equipment and services, as an out-of-state medical-device manufacturer may be unable to sell its products to a Virginia provider who is denied a CON to use them.[25]

Similarly, CCN laws grant exclusive, monopolistic territories to utilities providing services like water, sewer, or telecommunications. This framework prevents out-of-state or alternative providers from entering a market to offer more competitive pricing or innovative services, locking consumers into a single, state-protected provider.

This suppression of competition leads directly to higher costs and lower quality for consumers. A large body of economic research demonstrates that CON laws are associated with higher health-care prices, increased per-capita spending, and worse patient outcomes.[26] We reported in our earlier comments that the FTC and DOJ have both concluded that these laws can suppress supply, misallocate resources, and enable anticompetitive agreements among providers, without delivering on their stated goals of lowering costs or improving quality.[27]

Congress has clear authority under the Commerce Clause to regulate interstate markets for health care and utilities. The federal government has also previously intervened in this area; the National Health Planning and Resources Development Act of 1974 once mandated that states adopt CON laws, but Congress repealed this mandate in 1986, as evidence of their failure mounted. Congress should now act to explicitly preempt state CON and CCN laws that create barriers to entry for out-of-state providers, or otherwise burden the interstate flow of services and capital. Such legislation would dismantle these state-level cartels and restore competition to these critical sectors.

The DOJ and FTC have long recognized the anticompetitive nature of CON laws and should continue to challenge them through antitrust enforcement and advocacy. These agencies can file amicus briefs in support of private litigation challenging these laws under the Dormant Commerce Clause and can launch their own investigations into how these regulatory schemes facilitate anticompetitive conduct.

The federal government also provides substantial funding to states for health care through the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and for various utility and infrastructure projects. The administration should condition receipt of these funds on the full repeal of a state’s CON and CCN laws. This would create a powerful financial reason for states to eliminate these protectionist policies that harm the national economy.

The relevant federal agencies with subject-matter expertise are HHS, the FTC, and the DOJ for CON laws, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for CCN laws related to energy and telecommunications, respectively.

VII. Corporate Practice of Medicine

The corporate practice of medicine (CPOM) doctrine refers to regulations that restrict both standard corporations and other nonphysician entities from employing physicians or directly engaging in medical practice. Initially, CPOM regulations were driven by concerns that corporate involvement in medicine would prioritize financial interests over patient care. But CPOM regulations were never based on empirical assessments of problems that were (or were not) associated with one or another model of health-care delivery or practice management. Whatever their historical rationale, the CPOM policy solution appears to be a poor fit to the complexities of modern health care.

At best, the CPOM doctrine represents an early attempt to address theoretical market failures in health care—specifically, concerns about information asymmetries between providers and patients, and potential principal-agent problems that might arise when corporate interests influence medical decisionmaking. The modern CPOM landscape does not, however, serve to address any such concerns because, in practice, the laws see extreme variance in their application—undermining their coherence and predictability.

For instance, many of the distinctions between entities that are or are not permitted to employ or supervise physicians have little to no empirical foundation. Not a few seem the product of rent-seeking rather than research-based policy reform. Consider that, in New York, some recent cases involving CPOM have essentially amounted to business disputes among private parties, rather than public enforcement. Physicians have even used the doctrine as a defense against contract claims filed by corporations.[28]

To the extent that the primary goal of CPOM doctrine is to ensure quality care, it may paradoxically hinder this objective by stifling innovation. For example, the corporate business form plays a crucial role in facilitating industry expansion. Unlike other entity structures—such as sole proprietorships, general partnerships, and limited partnerships—the corporate form offers limited liability, a formalized structure, and liquidity. These traits are key features that attract investors and enable the efficient raising of capital, which in turn fosters business growth.

In an era in which innovation is essential to improving health-care accessibility and efficiency, CPOM restrictions hinder the adoption of corporate structures and emerging technologies in the provision of health care. Reforming these regulations could unlock significant advancements, fostering a health-care system better equipped to meet patients’ needs in the modern age.

Toward this end, the DOJ should seek to collaborate with the FTC to assess the empirical case for CPOM restrictions, as applied, in order to assess the extent to which the intended benefits actually accrue, in light of the tremendous costs associated with foregone investment and, at best, compliance efforts. In the event that the research supports moving away from the existing patchwork of CPOM laws, federal competition agencies would do well to support state legislation geared toward reform.

VIII. Marijuana Trafficking

The growing conflict between state laws legalizing recreational marijuana and its continued prohibition under the federal Controlled Substances Act (CSA)[29] has created a significant negative externality: large-scale, illicit interstate trafficking. This problem stems directly from a failure of federal enforcement policy to manage the predictable consequences of a state-by-state legalization patchwork.

In 2013, the DOJ issued the “Cole Memorandum,” which established a policy of discretionary non-enforcement of the CSA in states that had legalized marijuana, provided those states implemented “strong and effective regulatory and enforcement systems” to prevent certain harms.[30] A key federal priority identified in the memo was “[p]reventing the diversion of marijuana from states where it is legal under state law in some form to other states.” While the Cole Memo was rescinded in 2018,[31] subsequent administrations have largely continued a similar policy of prosecutorial discretion, creating de-facto tolerance for state-legal markets.

The interstate commerce burden arises because this policy of federal deference has failed. States with legalized markets have become source hubs for a massive illicit trade that supplies marijuana to states where it remains illegal. Criminal organizations exploit price differentials between legal markets, where supply is abundant, and prohibition states, where black-market prices are higher. These organizations operate under the cover of state-legal systems to produce marijuana for illegal export, directly contravening a core premise of the federal government’s permissive stance.

The primary adverse impact of this failed federal policy is borne by the citizens and governments of states that have chosen not to legalize marijuana. These states are forced to expend significant public resources to contend with an influx of illegal drugs originating from states with legal markets. Law-enforcement agencies in neighboring states report a dramatic increase in marijuana-related enforcement actions tied directly to diversion. In Nebraska, which borders Colorado, law-enforcement agencies have noted a significant rise in traffic stops and seizures of marijuana being transported east on Interstate 80.[32] Similarly, the Kansas Highway Patrol has engaged in a practice of targeting vehicles with Colorado license plates—a practice that, while found to be unconstitutional, highlights the perceived scale of the trafficking problem.[33]

States with newly liberalized marijuana laws have become magnets for transnational criminal organizations. The Oklahoma Bureau of Narcotics has conducted numerous large-scale busts of illegal grow operations run by Chinese crime syndicates and Mexican drug cartels that were established after the state legalized medical marijuana.[34] These operations produce marijuana not for the Oklahoma medical market, but for illicit trafficking throughout the country. This demonstrates that the regulatory systems in legalizing states are not preventing diversion, as the Cole Memo framework presumed they would.

The illicit trade imposes substantial social and economic costs on receiving states, including increased burdens on their criminal-justice systems, public-health services, and child-welfare agencies. These costs represent a direct transfer of the negative consequences of one state’s policy choice onto the citizens of another—a classic negative externality that the federal government has a duty to address.

This issue is exceptionally amenable to federal action, as the underlying conduct—the cultivation, distribution, and possession of marijuana—remains illegal under federal law. The CSA provides the federal government with clear and undisputed authority to regulate interstate drug trafficking. The current problem is not a lack of federal authority, but a failure to exercise that authority in ways that respect the federalist system and protect non-legalizing states from the spillover effects of their neighbors’ policies.

The policy of deference outlined in the Cole Memo was an exercise of prosecutorial discretion, not a change in the law. The executive branch can, at any time, revise its enforcement priorities to address the documented failure of legalizing states to prevent interstate diversion. This does not require new legislation; it requires the enforcement of existing law to mitigate the interstate harms that the current policy enabled. The federal government’s constitutional authority to regulate commerce among the states includes the power—and the responsibility—to prevent the policy choices of one state from inflicting direct economic and social costs on another.

The DOJ should formally reestablish and vigorously enforce the federal priority of preventing the diversion of marijuana from states with legal markets to other states. This should involve targeting, investigating, and prosecuting individuals and criminal organizations that exploit state-legal regimes to traffic marijuana across state lines. This policy should be clearly communicated to U.S. attorneys and to officials in states with legal marijuana, making it clear that the federal government’s continued policy of general noninterference is contingent on those states demonstrating effective control over diversion.

The DOJ, including its components such as the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and the U.S. Attorneys’ Offices, is the agency with the sole jurisdiction, expertise, and responsibility for enforcing the Controlled Substances Act and addressing illicit interstate drug trafficking.

IX. State Antitrust and Unfair-Competition Laws

In some cases, state antitrust or unfair-competition laws diverge from federal competition law. This creates problems not only by raising compliance costs, but also—when state rules are more stringent—by potentially restricting competition itself. Paradoxical as it may sound, an overly stringent reading of antitrust law can stifle efficient contracts or business models, deter integrations that lower costs and prices, and ultimately harm the very consumers they are meant to protect.

California’s Unfair Competition Law presents a paradigmatic example of state legislation that significantly affects interstate commerce and imposes substantial economic costs beyond California’s borders. The statute—codified at California Business & Professions Code § 17200—prohibits “any unlawful, unfair or fraudulent business act or practice,” with courts interpreting the “unfair” prong to reach conduct that may not violate federal antitrust law.[35] When applied to businesses operating in national markets—particularly digital platforms—the UCL effectively compels nationwide changes to business practices, product designs, and contractual relationships, thereby imposing California’s regulatory preferences, which may well run counter to federal antitrust law, on the entire country.

The recent Epic Games v. Apple litigation illustrates how California’s UCL can supersede federal antitrust policy through nationwide injunctions. In that case, the district court rejected Epic’s federal antitrust claims, finding that Apple’s restrictions on third-party app stores and in-app payment systems did not violate the Sherman Act.[36] Nevertheless, the same court held that Apple’s anti-steering provisions violated the UCL’s “unfair” prong and issued a permanent injunction requiring Apple to modify its App Store policies nationwide.[37] The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed both holdings, creating an incongruous result in which conduct explicitly found lawful under federal antitrust law was enjoined across the United States based on California’s broader unfairness standard.[38]

This outcome generates significant interstate economic costs through multiple channels. First, platforms and other businesses operating nationally must harmonize their products and services to comply with California’s standards. As Lazar Radic and Daniel Gilman note, “this discrepancy effectively enables a single state’s unfair competition law to undermine federal antitrust policy nationwide.”[39] This renders the UCL a de-facto federal regulation without the procedural safeguards or democratic input that federal lawmaking requires. The situation presents precisely the type of state law that warrants federal attention: one that imposes substantial compliance costs on out-of-state businesses, creates negative externalities for consumers nationwide, and undermines the coherence of federal competition policy.

Second, the UCL’s expansive reach creates risks of conflicting state mandates that cannot be reconciled in a single national product or service. If other states adopt divergent unfairness standards with different requirements for platform operations, businesses face mutually inconsistent obligations that increase legal uncertainty, operational complexity, and barriers to entry. This regulatory fragmentation is particularly problematic in digital markets, where platform operations are inherently interstate and cannot easily be segregated by geography.

Third, the availability of UCL claims enables strategic forum shopping, allowing litigants to circumvent federal antitrust standards by pursuing state law claims in California courts. Our brief on the Epic Games v. Apple case warned that the panel’s decision, if left standing, “risks chilling procompetitive conduct by deterring investment in efficiency-enhancing business practices, such as Apple’s ‘walled-garden’ iOS.”[40] This undermines the coherence and predictability of federal competition policy, as conduct deemed procompetitive under federal law can nevertheless be enjoined nationwide under California’s more expansive standard. More fundamentally, it “risks creating a fundamental contradiction by enjoining conduct under the UCL that is benign—and even beneficial—under antitrust law.”[41] This allows California to effectively override federal competition policy through state unfair-competition law, creating a patchwork of potentially conflicting standards that businesses operating nationally must navigate.

The theoretical constraint on the UCL’s reach—the requirement that unfair conduct be tethered to antitrust law—has proven insufficient to prevent these extraterritorial effects. Under Cel-Tech Communications, Inc. v. L.A. Cellular Telephone Co., the UCL’s unfair prong for competitor suits requires conduct that “threatens an incipient violation of an antitrust law, or violates the policy or spirit of one of those laws because its effects are comparable to or the same as a violation of the law.”[42] But as Epic v. Apple demonstrates, courts have interpreted this tethering requirement broadly enough to condemn conduct that federal courts have explicitly found promotes competition and consumer welfare.

The economic impacts extend beyond direct compliance costs. When California law forces changes to national platform policies, it affects the entire ecosystem of businesses and consumers who rely on those platforms. In Epic v. Apple, the injunction’s effects ripple through to the millions of app developers who must adapt to new payment systems and policies, potentially increasing transaction costs and reducing the security benefits that the district court recognized as legitimate procompetitive justifications for Apple’s original policies.¹¹ These spillover effects demonstrate how a single state’s competition law can reshape entire industries operating in interstate commerce.

This situation presents the type of state law that warrants federal attention under this RFI. The UCL’s application to national digital markets creates negative externalities for out-of-state businesses and consumers, invites regulatory balkanization, and undermines the uniformity of federal competition policy. Federal legislative or regulatory intervention may be necessary to clarify the relationship between state unfair-competition laws and federal antitrust standards, particularly in markets where business operations are inherently interstate and cannot be effectively segregated by state boundaries.

California has also been at the forefront of fragmenting federal antitrust law in other ways. For example, the California Law Revision Commission (CLRC) is currently reviewing proposed amendments to the state’s antitrust statutes, particularly the Cartwright Act, with a major goal of distancing California from the perceived constraints of federal antitrust law that limit liability for single-firm conduct under Section 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act.[43] This initiative risks fragmenting U.S. antitrust law by proposing amendments to the Cartwright Act that systematically contravene federal antitrust principles.[44] These proposed changes aim to achieve this by abandoning the traditional error-cost framework, which prioritizes avoiding false positives (Type I errors) in favor of preventing underenforcement based on unsubstantiated assumptions.

Furthermore, California seeks to overturn key Supreme Court precedents: relaxing standards for refusals to deal, moving closer to the more interventionist EU approach and risking chilled innovation; allowing antitrust liability based on harm to only one side of a two-sided market, thereby neglecting the holistic economic analysis required for platform economies and shifting away from the consumer-welfare standard; and removing the recoupment requirement for predatory pricing, thus lowering the evidentiary standard and risking the deterrence of pro-competitive, low-price behavior. This collective departure from the established U.S. antitrust framework, driven by an “unexamined assumption” that more enforcement is inherently better, risks deterring pro-competitive behavior, harming consumers and innovation, and dismantling decades of settled doctrine—ultimately threatening the predictability and coherence of U.S. antitrust law.

Because California’s market is so large, firms cannot realistically confine their practices to one state. In other words, stricter Cartwright Act rules would effectively shape business conduct nationwide, forcing companies to adjust policies across state lines beyond what federal antitrust law requires. This legal fragmentation also invites forum shopping and raises compliance costs, undermining the predictability of a unified federal antitrust system and chilling pro-competitive behavior beyond California.

There are also some instances where states, either through legislation or judicial precedent, continue to treat certain vertical restraints as per-se unlawful, even after the Supreme Court made clear that such restraints should be evaluated under the rule of reason, in light of their potential pro-competitive and pro-consumer benefits. Since the 1970s, federal antitrust law has recognized that vertical restrictions may generate efficiencies—e.g., when the Court abandoned the per-se rule against non-price vertical restraints, emphasizing their role in promoting interbrand competition.[45]

The Court later extended this reasoning to resale price maintenance, holding that such agreements are not automatically illegal but must be judged under the rule of reason.[46] The Court found that such agreements can have procompetitive benefits, such as encouraging retailers to invest in services or promotional efforts that enhance interbrand competition and allowing manufacturers to compete not just on price, but on quality and service. In response to Leegin, however, some states—such as Maryland and New York—enacted laws declaring resale price maintenance illegal or unenforceable.[47] Some states, like Utah, have enacted specific sectoral regulation, such as the Contact Lens Consumer Protection Act (2015), which bans minimum resale-price maintenance practices in the contact-lens sector.[48]

These rules not only directly contradict a Supreme Court precedent; in their eagerness to protect specific competitors, they prohibit business practices that promote efficiency. They therefore undermine the very essence of the market economy that has allowed the United States to become the largest and most innovative economy in the world. In order to promote greater economic growth, these regulations should be repealed.

X. Automotive and Fuel Markets

The most profound examples of the “California Effect” can be found in the state’s influence over the national automotive and fuel markets. This influence stems from a suite of interlocking state regulations that project California’s policy preferences across the country.

The foundation of this influence was a unique waiver from federal preemption under the Clean Air Act that allowed the state to set its own, more stringent vehicle-emissions standards. This authority was magnified by Section 177 of the act, which permits other states to adopt California’s standards. Currently, 17 states and the District of Columbia have adopted California’s light-duty vehicle standards. Meanwhile, 10 states have adopted its heavy-duty standards, creating a regulatory bloc that effectively sets national policy for more than 40% of the U.S. population.

This de-facto national standards-setting for vehicles is complemented by a series of state-specific fuel regulations that create a fragmented national energy market, including:

  • California Reformulated Gasoline (CaRFG) Program: This program establishes stringent specifications for fuel parameters like sulfur and benzene content that are unique to California. To access the state’s large market, out-of-state fuel producers must incur significant costs to modify their refining processes to meet these standards.[49]
  • Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS): The LCFS directly regulates extraterritorial conduct by assigning a “carbon intensity” score to fuels based on their entire lifecycle, from extraction to consumption. This calculation includes emissions produced during production and transportation that occur entirely outside of California’s borders, directly penalizing producers in other states that may have higher transport-related emissions due to their geographic location.[50]
  • Import Reporting Mandates: The California Energy Commission requires fuel importers to file comprehensive marine-import reports with detailed information about their cargo, ownership, and transport, imposing new and extensive compliance costs on out-of-state market participants.[51]

The combined effect of these vehicle and fuel regulations is the splintering of what should be integrated national markets, imposing substantial costs on businesses and consumers nationwide. The vehicle-emissions standards create a classic Dormant Commerce Clause problem, wherein one state’s regulatory preferences become the de-facto national standard, forcing manufacturers to design their entire vehicle fleets to meet California’s requirements.

This fragmentation is mirrored in the fuel market. The unique CaRFG and LCFS standards effectively separate California’s fuel market from the rest of the country. This isolation disrupts national supply dynamics and raises costs for producers, who must invest in specialized refining processes and complex compliance tracking to serve the California market. These costs are ultimately passed on to consumers—not just in California, but nationwide—as the national fuel supply chain becomes less efficient and more fragmented.

The LCFS, in particular, creates a direct burden on out-of-state producers by penalizing them based on factors inherent to their location, such as the distance their product must travel to reach California. This dynamic is exacerbated as more states opt in to California’s emissions standards, further solidifying a patchwork of regulations that undermines a unified national economy.

The legal foundation for California’s regulatory regime is the waiver provision in the Clean Air Act, a statutory authority granted by Congress. This authority has been the subject of significant legal and political conflict. Legal challenges to the extraterritorial effects of these regulations, particularly under the Dormant Commerce Clause, have had limited success in the courts. Notably, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected a Dormant Commerce Clause claim against the LCFS in Rocky Mountain Farmers Union v. Corey,[52] deferring to the state’s regulatory authority, despite the clear out-of-state impacts.

This judicial reticence to scrutinize the extraterritorial burdens of state environmental laws places the responsibility for a solution squarely on the political branches. Because California’s unique authority is a product of federal statute, not a constitutional right, it is exceptionally amenable to federal action. Congress possesses plenary power under the affirmative Commerce Clause to amend or repeal the waiver provision entirely. Likewise, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) retains administrative authority to grant, deny, or reconsider these waivers, providing an executive-branch pathway to restore a single national standard.

Congress should enact legislation to repeal California’s unique waiver authority under Section 209 of the Clean Air Act. This action would establish a single, uniform national market for new motor vehicles and eliminate the foundation upon which California’s fragmented fuel market is built. It would reduce the immense compliance costs currently borne by manufacturers and fuel producers, enhance consumer choice, and ensure that standards for national industries are set at the national level based on a holistic assessment of costs and benefits.

The EPA and DOT, acting through the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), are the federal agencies with the statutory authority and technical expertise to set and enforce a single, cohesive national standard for vehicle emissions and fuel economy. Restoring their exclusive jurisdiction would bring much-needed certainty and efficiency to these critical, interconnected sectors of the U.S. economy.

XI. State Interchange-Fee Regulations

Many states have seen proposals for laws that would regulate interchange fees for credit- and debit-card transactions. To date, only Illinois has passed such a law. In June 2024, Illinois enacted the Illinois Interchange Fee Prohibition Act (IFPA), a first-of-its-kind law aimed at reshaping the economics of credit- and debit-card transactions in the state, but with implications far beyond.[53] The IFPA prohibits payment-card issuers, networks, and processors from charging or collecting interchange fees on those portions of a transaction that represent gratuities or state or local sales taxes.

It is clear that the IFPA’s reach extends well beyond Illinois’ borders. Under the IFPA, an Illinois merchant’s credit-card transaction processed by a national bank must exclude interchange on the sales tax and gratuity portions, regardless where the issuer is based. Since the vast majority of credit- and debit-card issuers are headquartered or chartered in other states—or even outside the United States—the act would compel these institutions to adjust their fee structures for transactions completed in Illinois. They will also have to collaborate with acquirers, networks, and Illinois-based merchants to adjust the way that transactions are reported.

The IFPA thus imposes substantial additional compliance costs on issuers, acquirers, and networks. When combined with loss of part of the interchange-fee revenue from transactions within Illinois, this means out-of-state issuers will almost certainly be forced to undertake some combination of 1) reduced card rewards and benefits, 2) new or increased annual fees, 3) higher interest rates, and/or 4) higher interchange fees to be paid for by out-of-state merchants.

These compensatory actions would affect most or even all U.S. cardholders, the vast majority of whom live outside Illinois. Reduced rewards and increased fees would diminish the attractiveness of card use, leading to lower consumer spending, thereby harming merchants as well. There would thus be harmful extraterritorial effects across the value chain. While banks, payment processors, and networks would suffer concentrated costs and losses, at least some of these would be passed on to consumers and merchants.

For good reason, the law currently faces serious legal challenges. In August 2024, the Illinois Bankers Association, American Bankers Association, America’s Credit Unions, the Illinois Credit Union League, and the Illinois Retail Merchants Association brought a motion for pre-enforcement injunctive relief from the IFPA.

Each set of plaintiffs in the case was able to assert a relevant federal law or constitutional principle the IFPA violated. Nationally chartered banks pointed to the National Banking Act (NBA) and various federal regulations that apply specifically to them. Federal savings associations cited the Home Owners’ Loan Act (HOLA), which similarly empowers and regulates them. Federal credit unions asserted preemption under the Federal Credit Union Act (FCUA), because it gives the National Credit Union Administration exclusive authority to regulate them. State banks chartered in Illinois pointed to state laws that give banks the same powers as nationally chartered banks. Out-of-state banks brought both Dormant Commerce Clause and federal law claims that they have the right to be treated similarly to in-state banks and nationally chartered banks, respectively.

The district court issued two rulings, first finding that the NBA and HOLA likely preempt the IFPA under Supreme Court jurisprudence holding state laws are preempted if they “prevent or significantly interfere with the exercise of a national bank’s powers.”[54] This is different from normal conflict preemption, which requires showing that an entity can’t comply with both sets of laws. Instead, it only requires a showing of significant interference with their ability to exercise their powers under national law. Here, IFPA’s significant interference is clear: it forbids national banks and savings associations from collecting a category of fees they would otherwise collect in the normal course of offering card services.

In a later opinion, the district court found that federal law demanded similar treatment for out-of-state banks as national banks. And “because the Court granted the preliminary injunction with respect to nationally chartered banks, forcing out-of-state state banks to comply with the IFPA would run afoul” of the law.[55]

On the other hand, the court rejected other arguments made by plaintiffs. The Dormant Commerce Clause arguments made by out-of-state banks were rejected on grounds that they were held to the same law as in-state banks. And both the federal credit unions and credit-card networks were unsuccessful in asserting federal preemption, as their relevant statutes were subject only to conflict preemption and it was possible to comply with both sets of laws.

Thus, the court found that the IFPA was likely preempted by federal law as to federally chartered banks and savings associations and to out-of-state banks, and issued a preliminary injunctions as to those parties. This leaves Illinois in an unusual position of only being able to enforce its law against its own in-state banks, federal credit unions, and credit-card networks. Litigation in this case remains ongoing.

The DOJ should consider joining the amici work of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)[56] in favor of the plaintiffs in this case in order to make clear that federal law preempts the IFPA and similar laws that would effectively raise the cost of payment cards nationwide.

XII. Digital Privacy

The digital economy is, by its nature, an interstate and global marketplace. Yet it is increasingly being subject to a fragmented and conflicting set of state-level regulations. This trend was initiated by passage of the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) in 2018, which was subsequently amended and expanded by the California Privacy Rights Act (CPRA). The CCPA/CPRA created a comprehensive data-privacy regime that applies not only to businesses in California but to any for-profit entity nationwide that does business in California and meets certain thresholds, such as having gross annual revenue of more than $25 million or buying, selling, or sharing the personal information of 100,000 or more California residents.

In the absence of a preemptive federal privacy law, California’s statute has served as a catalyst for other states to enact their own versions. This has resulted in a rapidly growing patchwork of similar but substantively different privacy laws across the country. As of mid-2025, 20 states have passed comprehensive data-privacy laws, each with their own unique definitions, scope, consumer rights, and enforcement mechanisms. This creates a bewildering and costly compliance landscape for any business that operates online and serves customers in multiple states, as these laws generally apply to personal information about residents of that specific state. As noted by Jennifer Huddleston and Ian Adams:

While these laws purport to apply only inside each state’s borders, they burden an inherently interstate—indeed, global—media, and the direct and indirect costs and effects of state laws and regulations are significant. … Notably, the CCPA’s costs impact not only companies in the technology sector but a wide range of industries: from retail and entertainment to construction and mining.[57]

The compliance costs associated with this regulatory patchwork are extraordinary. Businesses must dedicate significant legal, engineering, and administrative resources to track, interpret, and implement the varying requirements of each state’s law. Economic analysis by the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) estimates that, if all 50 states were to enact their own privacy laws, the total out-of-state compliance costs imposed on the U.S. economy would be between $98 billion and $112 billion annually.[58] Over a 10-year period, this cost would exceed $1 trillion. A substantial portion of this burden—estimated at more than $200 billion over 10 years—would fall on small and medium-sized businesses, which lack large tech firms’ resources to navigate this complex environment. California’s law alone is estimated to impose $32 billion in annual costs on out-of-state businesses.

This costly and uncertain regulatory environment stifles innovation and harms competition. The high fixed costs of compliance function as a significant barrier to entry for startups and smaller firms, entrenching the market position of large, established technology companies that can afford large compliance departments. Furthermore, overly prescriptive rules—such as aggressive data-minimization requirements—can impede the development of new data-driven technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), which rely on access to large datasets for training and improvement. This puts U.S. firms at a competitive disadvantage in the global technology race.

Rather than empowering consumers, the patchwork of differing rights, definitions, and disclosure requirements across states leads to confusion and “notice fatigue.”[59] Consumers are inundated with a constant stream of lengthy and legalistic privacy policies and pop-up notices that they cannot reasonably be expected to read or understand, undermining the goal of genuine transparency and meaningful control over personal information. There is a broad and powerful consensus across the political and economic spectrum—from industry groups and consumer advocates to policymakers and academics—that the current state-level patchwork is untenable and that a federal solution is urgently needed.

The primary legal challenge to these state laws rests on the Dormant Commerce Clause, which prohibits states from enacting laws that unduly burden interstate commerce. Because data transmissions do not abide state borders, a single online action can involve multiple states. This means that state laws purporting to regulate the internet trigger Dormant Commerce Clause scrutiny due to their extraterritorial impact. The application of these laws to businesses not physically located in the regulating state raises significant constitutional problems.

The primary point of contention in the federal debate revolves around the preemptive effect of a federal law. One approach advocates for a federal “ceiling,” which would create a single, uniform national standard for data privacy and explicitly preempt all state laws in the field. An alternative approach argues for a federal “floor,” which would establish a baseline of privacy protections but would explicitly permit states to enact and enforce stronger or more specific laws.

While appealing to some states’ rights advocates, the “floor” approach fails to solve the fundamental economic problem. It would not alleviate the crushing compliance costs of this regulatory patchwork, as businesses would still have to comply with the most stringent provisions of every state in which they operate, in addition to the federal baseline.

Rather than imposing a single, top-down, one-size-fits-all federal privacy statute, a more innovative and market-oriented solution exists, grounded in the principles of competitive federalism. This approach, developed by scholars at ICLE and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), proposes that Congress enact a targeted federal statute requiring states to recognize and enforce contractual choice-of-law provisions in privacy policies.[60]

The mechanism for this proposal is straightforward. A business operating nationally would be permitted to select the comprehensive privacy law of a single state—for example, the Virginia Consumer Data Protection Act or the Utah Consumer Privacy Act—and designate in its terms of service that this law governs its relationship with all its U.S. customers. The federal statute would ensure that this contractual choice is honored and enforced by courts and regulators in all other states.

This choice-of-law framework provides numerous benefits. It immediately solves the patchwork problem for businesses, allowing them to comply with a single, coherent legal regime rather than a morass of 50 different ones. At the same time, it preserves a meaningful and dynamic role for state regulation, avoiding the risks of a static and potentially ill-fitting federal mandate. Most importantly, as the authors argue, this approach would foster a “double competition” that would ultimately benefit consumers:

  1. Competition Among States: States would be encouraged to compete to develop the most efficient, innovative, and effective privacy laws. A state that enacted a well-balanced, clear, and effective law could attract businesses to choose its regime, much as Delaware has become the preferred state for corporate charters. This would turn states into true “laboratories of democracy” for privacy regulation.
  2. Competition Among Firms: Businesses would compete to offer privacy policies that are aligned with the preferences of different segments of the consumer market. A firm could choose to adopt a more stringent privacy regime as a competitive differentiator to attract privacy-conscious consumers, while another might choose a more flexible regime that enables more personalized services. This market competition would allow for more accurate discovery of consumers’ true valuation of different aspects of privacy versus other product features and benefits.

The ICLE-AEI approach offers a path forward to resolve the economic harms inherent in the current patchwork without resorting to heavy-handed federal preemption that would stifle state innovation. The FTC, with its long history of consumer protection and privacy enforcement, and the U.S. Commerce Department, with its expertise in the digital economy, are the federal agencies best positioned to help craft and oversee such a choice-of-law framework.

XIII. Artificial Intelligence

Following the pattern established with data privacy, states are now racing to regulate AI, threatening to create a new and even more complex regulatory patchwork before a national market for this transformative technology can fully mature. In 2024 alone, state lawmakers introduced more than 600 AI-related bills, with nearly 100 enacted into law.[61] In 2025, that number is expected to grow significantly, with all 50 states having introduced legislation on the topic.

These state-level efforts are not uniform. They address a wide range of issues, from the use of AI in employment and housing decisions to “deepfake” generation and consumer disclosures. Colorado, for example, enacted a comprehensive law governing “high-risk” AI systems, while California is advancing regulations on automated decisionmaking technology through its privacy agency, and Illinois has mandated new disclosures for AI in employment.[62]

The extraterritorial mechanism of these laws is inherent to the nature of AI and the internet. AI models are developed and deployed in a digital environment that knows no state borders. A single AI system developed by a company in one state, trained on data from across the country, and deployed via the cloud to users in all 50 states may become subject to a morass of conflicting state-level mandates. A law in one state governing algorithmic discrimination or requiring specific disclosures has the practical effect of regulating the design, development, and deployment of that AI system for the entire national market. This creates a direct burden on interstate commerce, as developers are forced to either build their systems to the most restrictive state standard or attempt the costly and technically difficult task of walling off their products from residents of certain states.

The premature fragmentation of AI regulation will impose immense economic costs, stifle American innovation, and create an untenable compliance environment, particularly for the startups and smaller firms that are driving much of the nation’s technological progress.

The compliance costs of a 50-state AI regulatory patchwork would be enormous. As demonstrated by the experience with state privacy laws, which are projected to impose more than $1 trillion in out-of-state costs over a decade, a similar patchwork for the more complex field of AI would create a compliance nightmare.[63] Businesses would be forced to divert substantial resources from research and development into legal and compliance departments simply to navigate the labyrinth of conflicting state definitions, mandates, and disclosure requirements. This burden falls disproportionately on smaller innovators, who lack the vast legal resources of established tech giants, creating a significant barrier to entry and chilling competition.

This regulatory uncertainty actively harms innovation. The development of advanced AI is an iterative process that requires experimentation. A fragmented legal landscape, where the rules can change from one state to the next, discourages the long-term capital investment necessary for foundational research and development. As ICLE has noted in the context of other emerging technologies, attempting to create a single regulatory scheme for a broad and diverse category like “AI” commits the error of “regulatory overaggregation,” creating an ill-fitting legal regime that fails to account for the vast differences between various applications.[64] This approach risks prohibiting beneficial technologies before they have a chance to mature.

A fragmented domestic market also undermines U.S. competitiveness in a critical area of national security and economic importance. As other global actors, such as the European Union, move forward with unified regulatory frameworks like the EU AI Act, a fragmented U.S. market creates a competitive disadvantage. American firms will be forced to contend with 50 different sets of rules at home, hindering their ability to scale and compete effectively on the global stage. This concern is reflected in the White House’s AI Action Plan, which seeks to discourage state-level AI regulation that could hinder American AI development.[65]

The emerging patchwork of state AI laws is exceptionally amenable to federal action, and the legal basis for such action is firmly grounded in the Constitution. The Commerce Clause grants Congress the authority to regulate interstate commerce, and there is no question that AI development and deployment constitute such commerce.

The primary constitutional challenge to these state laws rests on the Dormant Commerce Clause, which prohibits states from enacting laws that unduly burden or discriminate against interstate commerce.[66] State AI laws that have extraterritorial effects—such as those that attempt to regulate the design of AI models that operate nationally—are vulnerable to challenge under this doctrine. As one analysis notes, “There is no natural reason for data to stop at state borders, meaning virtually all economic activity involving AI is interstate commerce.”[67]

As with data privacy, Congress should enact a federal statute requiring states to recognize and enforce contractual choice-of-law provisions for AI systems. This approach would allow an AI developer to select the regulatory framework of a single state to govern its system’s operation nationwide. This immediately solves the patchwork problem for businesses, allowing them to comply with one coherent set of rules, rather than 50 conflicting ones. At the same time, it preserves the role of states as “laboratories of democracy” and fosters a “double competition” that benefits the entire economy.

This choice-of-law framework offers a durable solution that could prevent the economic damage of a splintered AI market without resorting to a rigid federal mandate that could quickly become obsolete.

The U.S. Commerce Department—through its component agencies like the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA)—and the FTC, with its expertise in consumer protection and competition, are the agencies best positioned to provide the technical and policy guidance necessary to implement this federalist approach to AI governance.

The DOJ has tools at its disposal to prevent states from imposing extraterritorial regulatory effects that exceed their proper jurisdiction. The DOJ has long played a role in ensuring that state laws do not impede the flow of interstate commerce, whether through antitrust enforcement, intervention in preemption litigation, or filing statements of interest in private suits that raise constitutional questions.[68] In the AI context, the DOJ could intervene in cases where state statutes effectively regulate conduct occurring wholly outside of state borders—such as the design, training, or deployment of models that serve a national or global user base. By articulating the limits of state authority under the Dormant Commerce Clause, the DOJ could also help to clarify the constitutional boundaries of state AI regulation and prevent any single state from dictating standards for the entire country.

In addition, the DOJ could issue guidance that emphasizes the federal government’s interest in preserving a national market for AI technologies, much as it has done in the past when states attempted to regulate extraterritorially in fields like transportation.[69] Such guidance, particularly if coordinated with the White House and federal agencies charged with AI policy, would provide courts with a clear statement of executive-branch priorities. It would also serve as a deterrent, signaling to state legislatures that extraterritorial mandates are likely to invite federal opposition and constitutional challenge.

By combining litigation interventions with policy guidance, the DOJ could play a crucial role in cabining state overreach, ensuring that AI regulation develops within a coherent national framework, rather than a patchwork that undermines innovation and interstate commerce.

XIV. Conclusion

These comments identify a clear pattern of individual states increasingly weaponizing their economic power to impose regulatory preferences on the entire nation, creating a fundamental threat to the constitutional structure of American federalism and the efficiency of interstate commerce. The “California Effect” and similar dynamics represent a profound departure from the traditional understanding that states possess sovereign authority within their borders, not beyond them. When large states leverage their market share to compel nationwide compliance with their regulatory schemes—whether in vehicle emissions, data privacy, AI governance, or payments—they effectively nullify other states’ policy choices and usurp Congress’ constitutional role in regulating interstate commerce.

The economic costs of this regulatory balkanization are substantial and measurable. State data-privacy laws alone impose an estimated $98-112 billion in annual out-of-state compliance costs, with the burden falling disproportionately on smaller businesses that lack the resources to navigate multiple regulatory regimes. Similar patterns emerge across sectors: automobile-dealer franchise laws add thousands of dollars to vehicle prices through mandated inefficiencies; land-use restrictions trap workers in low-productivity regions; and certificate-of-need laws insulate incumbents from competition while raising health-care costs. These are not merely theoretical concerns but documented market failures that reduce economic growth, suppress innovation, and ultimately harm consumers nationwide.

The current judicial reluctance to enforce constitutional limits on state overreach—exemplified by cases like National Pork Producers Council v. Ross—places the primary responsibility for addressing these problems squarely on the political branches. Congress possesses clear constitutional authority under the Commerce Clause to restore uniformity to interstate markets, whether through direct preemption, conditional spending requirements, or innovative approaches like mandating recognition of contractual choice-of-law provisions. The executive branch can pursue strategic litigation targeting the most egregious examples of extraterritorial regulation, particularly where federal preemption doctrines provide strong legal foundations for challenge.

The urgency of federal action cannot be overstated. Each year of delay allows this regulatory fragmentation to become more entrenched, raising the political and economic costs of reform. As emerging technologies like AI face the same pattern of premature state-level regulation that has already damaged other sectors, the window for preventing a comprehensive balkanization of the U.S. economy continues to narrow.

The choice before policymakers is clear: restore the constitutional principles that have underwritten American economic prosperity for more than two centuries, or accept a future where the largest states dictate national policy through market coercion rather than democratic consensus.

The solutions outlined in these comments offer practical pathways forward that respect legitimate state interests, while protecting the national economy from destructive regulatory competition. Federal intervention in this context does not represent an expansion of government power but rather a restoration of constitutional limits that prevent any single state from imposing its will on the entire nation. The economic and constitutional stakes demand immediate and sustained federal attention to preserve both the efficiency of U.S. markets and the integrity of American federalism.

[1] Eric Fruits, Daniel J. Gilman, Ben Sperry, Kristian Stout, & Mario A. Zúñiga, ICLE Comments to FTC and DOJ on Anticompetitive Regulations, Department of Justice Anticompetitive Regulations Task Force, Docket No. ATR2025-0001, Federal Trade Commission Request for Public Comment Regarding Reducing Anti-Competitive Regulatory Barriers (May 27, 2025), available at https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/DOJ-FTC-Competition-Comments-2025.pdf [hereafter “Appendix”].

[2] See Complaint for Declaratory and Injunctive Relief, United States v. State of California, 25-cv-06230 (Jul. 9, 2025), available at https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1407446/dl.

[3] Animal Confinement Notice of Proposed Action 16, Cal. Dep’t of Food & Agric., available at https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/ahfss/pdfs/regulations/AnimalConfinement1stNoticePropReg_0 5252021.pdf (last visited Sep. 15, 2025).

[4] 598 US _ (2023).

[5] California Trucking Association v. Bonta, 34 F.4th 604 (9th Cir. 2022), cert. denied, 142 S. Ct. 2883 (2022).

[6] See, e.g., Cantero v. Bank of America, N.A., 602 U.S. 205 (2024).

[7] Nat’l Meat Ass’n v. Harris, 565 U.S. 452, 459–60 (2012).

[8] Id. at 460.

[9] See infra State Interchange Fee Regulations.

[10] Daniel A. Crane, Tesla, Dealer Franchise Laws, and the Politics of Crony Capitalism, 101(2) Iowa L. Rev. 573-607 (2016), https://repository.law.umich.edu/articles/1721.

[11] Brief of Legal and Economic Scholars, Lucid Group USA, Inc. v. State of Georgia, Ga. S25A1139 (Jul. 10, 2025), https://laweconcenter.org/resources/brief-of-legal-and-economic-scholars-to-the-georgia-supreme-court-in-lucid-v-georgia.

[12] James M. Rubenstein, Making and Selling Cars: Innovation and Change in the U. S. Automotive Industry (The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001), at 188.

[13] Dan Crane, Car Dealer Bill Restricts Competition and Limits Consumer Choice, Mackinac Center (Sep. 21, 2020), available at https://www.house.mi.gov/Document/?DocumentId=43595&DocumentType=CommitteeTestimony.

[14] Mass. State Auto. Dealers Ass’n, Inc. v. Tesla Motors MA, Inc., 15 N.E. 3d 1152 (Mass. 2014), https://law.justia.com/cases/massachusetts/supreme-court/2014/sjc-11545.html.

[15] Press Release, FTC Staff: Missouri and New Jersey Should Repeal Their Prohibitions on Direct-to-Consumer Auto Sales by Manufacturers, Fed. Trade Comm’n (May 16, 2014), https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2014/05/ftc-staff-missouri-new-jersey-should-repeal-their-prohibitions-direct-consumer-auto-sales.

[16] Pike v. Bruce Church, Inc., 397 U.S. 137 (1970).

[17] Gerald R. Bodisch, Economic Effects of State Bans on Direct Manufacturer Sales to Car Buyers, Economic Analysis Group, (May 2009), available at https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/atr/legacy/2009/05/28/246374.pdf.

[18] Joseph Gyourko, Jonathan S. Hartley, & Jacob Krimmel, The Local Residential Land Use Regulatory Environment Across U.S. Housing Markets: Evidence from a New Wharton Index, 124 J. Urban Econ. 103337 (2021).

[19] S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index [CSUSHPINSA], (retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Sep. 15, 2025); S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller OR-Portland Home Price Index [POXRSA], (retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Sep. 15, 2025), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1MjE9.

[20] Noel Johnson & Mike Kingsella, The Cautionary Tale of Portland’s Inclusionary Housing Policy, Up for Growth (Apr. 15, 2019) available at https://web.archive.org/web/20210924152240/https://upforgrowth.org/news/cautionary-tale-portlands-inclusionary-housing-policy.

[21] See, e.g., Sheetz v. El Dorado County, 601 U.S. _ (2024).

[22] See Appendix.

[23] H.B. 2688, 2025 Reg. Sess. (Or. 2025), https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2025R1/Measures/Overview/HB2688.

[24] See Appendix.

[25] Virginia Certificate of Need, Institute for Justice, https://ij.org/case/vacon-2 (last visited Sep. 15, 2025).

[26] Matthew D. Mitchell & Christopher Koopman, 40 Years of Certificate-of-Need Laws Across America, Mercatus Center (Sep. 27, 2016), https://www.mercatus.org/research/data-visualizations/40-years-certificate-need-laws-across-america.

[27] See Appendix.

[28] See, e.g., Andrew Carothers, M.D., P.C. v. Progressive Ins. Co., 979 N.Y.S. 2d 439 (2013).

[29] 21 U.S. Code § 801 et seq.

[30] Memorandum from James. M. Cole, Deputy Attorney General to United States Attorneys re: Guidance Regarding Marijuana Enforcement (Aug. 29, 2013), available at https://www.justice.gov/iso/opa/resources/3052013829132756857467.pdf.

[31] Memorandum from Jefferson B. Sessions, Attorney General to United States Attorneys re: Marijuana Enforcement (Jan. 4, 2018), available at https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7d/DOJ_Sessions_memo_20180104.pdf.

[32] See, e.g., Elaine Grant, Nebraska Cops Continue to Complain About Burden of Colorado Pot, Colorado Public Radio (Jan. 22, 2015), https://www.cpr.org/show-segment/nebraska-cops-continue-to-complain-about-burden-of-colorado-pot.

[33] Interstate 80 Traffic Stops Targeting Out-of-State Drivers, Petersen Law, https://www.criminaldefensene.com/interstate-80-traffic-stops-targeting-out-of-state-drivers (last visited Sep. 15, 2025).

[34] Press Release, Oklahoma Attorney General, More than 40,000 Marijuana Plants, 1,000 Lbs. of Processed Marijuana Seized in Organized Crime Task Force Sting in Mayes, Craig Counties, Oklahoma Attorney General’s Office (Jun. 26, 2025), https://oklahoma.gov/oag/news/newsroom/2025/june/more-than-40000-marijuana-plants-1000lbs-of-processed-marijuana-seized.html.

[35] Cal. Bus. & Prof. Code § 17200.

[36] Epic Games, Inc. v. Apple, Inc., 559 F. Supp. 3d 898, 933-1033 (N.D. Cal. 2021).

[37] Id. at 1049-50.

[38] Epic Games, Inc. v. Apple, Inc., 67 F.4th 946 (9th Cir. 2023), cert. denied, No. 23-344 (U.S. Jan. 16, 2024).

[39] Lazar Radic & Daniel J. Gilman, Four Problems with the Supreme Court’s Refusal to Hear the Epic v Apple Dispute, Truth on the Market (Jan. 18, 2024), https://truthonthemarket.com/2024/01/18/four-problems-with-the-supreme-courts-refusal-to-hear-the-epic-v-apple-dispute.

[40]

Amicus Brief of the International Center for Law & Economics, Epic Games, Inc. v. Apple Inc., Nos. 21-16506, 21-16695 (9th Cir., Jun. 20, 2023), available at https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/File-Stamp-FINAL-2023-06-20-ICLE-Rehearing-En-Banc-Amicus-Brief-in-Epic-Apple.pdf.

[41] Id. at 3.

[42] Cel-Tech Commc’ns, Inc. v. L.A. Cellular Tel. Co., 20 Cal. 4th 163, 186-87 (1999).

[43] Staff Memorandum, 2025-21 Draft Language for Single Firm Conduct Provision, Calif. Law Revis. Comm. (Mar. 24, 2025), available at https://clrc.ca.gov/pub/2025/MM25-21.pdf.

[44] See Lazar Radic, California Leads the Charge in Systematically Dismantling US Federal Antitrust Law, Truth on the Market (May 28, 2025), https://truthonthemarket.com/2025/05/28/california-leads-the-charge-in-systematically-dismantling-us-federal-antitrust-law.

[45] Continental T.V., Inc. v. GTE Sylvania Inc., 433 U.S. 36, 54–59 (1977).

[46] Leegin Creative Leather Products, Inc. v. PSKS, Inc., 551 U.S. 877, 889–907 (2007).

[47] Elai Katz, Resale Price Maintenance Examined Under State Laws, 247(95) N.Y. Law J. (May 17, 2012).

[48] Utah Code Ann. § 58-16a-905.1.

[49] Andrew Morris, Gasoline, Markets, and Regulators 8(3) Engage 4-13 (2003), https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=989827.

[50] David Deerson, PLF and Friends Ask SCOTUS to Review Extraterritorial Fuel Regulations, Pacific Legal Foundation (Feb. 8, 2019), https://pacificlegal.org/plf-and-friends-ask-scotus-to-review-extraterritorial-fuel-regulations.

[51] David R. Carpenter, Maureen F. Gorsen, & Jack Raffetto, California Issues Major New Gasoline Regulations for Refiners, Traders, and Brokers Through Emergency Rulemaking, Sidley Austin (Jun. 5, 2024),  https://www.sidley.com/en/insights/newsupdates/2024/06/california-issues-major-new-gasoline-regulations-for-refiners-traders-and-brokers.

[52] No. 12-15131 (9th Cir. 2013).

[53] See Julian Morris & Ben Sperry, Regulating State Interchange Fees: Evaluating the Likely Effects of the IFPA, Int’l Ctr. Law Econ. (Jul. 7, 2025), available at https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/IFPA-Paper-2025.pdf. Much of this subsection is adapted from that white paper.

[54] Illinois Bankers Association et al. v. Kwame Raoul, 2024 WL 5186840 (N.D. Ill., Aug. 15, 2024). See also Cantero v. Bank of America, N.A., 602 U.S. 205, 213-14 (2024); Barnett Bank of Marion Cty., N.A. v. Nelson, 517 U.S. 25, 33 (1996).

[55] Illinois Bankers Ass’n v. Kwame Raoul, 2025 WL 409060, at 7-8 (N.D. Ill., Feb. 6, 2025).

[56] Brief of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Illinois Bankers Association et al v. Raoul, No. 1:2024cv07307 (N.D. Ill. Oct. 2, 2024), available at https://www.occ.treas.gov/topics/laws-and-regulations/litigation/amicus-curiae-brief-illinois-bankers-assoc-v-raoul.pdf.

[57] Jennifer Huddleston & Ian Adams, Potential Constitutional Conflicts in State and Local Data Privacy Regulations, Regulatory Transparency Project (Dec. 2, 2019), https://rtp.fedsoc.org/paper/potential-constitutional-conflicts-in-state-and-local-data-privacy-regulations.

[58] Daniel Castro, Luke Dascoli, & Gillian Diebold, The Looming Cost of a Patchwork of State Privacy Laws, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (Jan. 24, 2022), https://itif.org/publications/2022/01/24/looming-cost-patchwork-state-privacy-laws.

[59] See, e.g., Sarah E Carter, A Value-Centered Exploration of Data Privacy and Personalized Privacy Assistants, 1 Digit Soc. 27 (2022).

[60] Geoffrey A. Manne & Jim Harper, A Choice-of-Law Alternative to Federal Preemption of State Privacy Law, Int’l. Ctr. Law Econ. & Am. Enterprise Inst. (Mar. 2024), available at https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2024-03-Manne-and-Harper.proof43.pdf.

[61] Artificial Intelligence (AI) Legislation, MultiState, https://www.multistate.ai/artificial-intelligence-ai-legislation (retrieved Sep. 15, 2025).

[62] Annette Tyman & Jason Priebe, Artificial Intelligence Legal Roundup: Colorado Postpones Implementation of AI Law as California Finalizes New Employment Discrimination Regulations and Illinois Disclosure Law Set to Take Effect, Seyfarth Shaw (Sep. 12, 2025), https://www.seyfarth.com/news-insights/artificial-intelligence-legal-roundup-colorado-postpones-implementation-of-ai-law-as-california-finalizes-new-employment-discrimination-regulations-and-illinois-disclosure-law-set-to-take-effect.html.

[63] Daniel Castro, Luke Dascoli, & Gillian Diebold, The Looming Cost of a Patchwork of State Privacy Laws, ITIF (2022), https://itif.org/publications/2022/01/24/looming-cost-patchwork-state-privacy-laws.

[64] Kristian Stout, Brian Albrecht, Miko?aj Barczentewicz, Eric Fruits, Geoffrey A. Manne, & Julian Morris, ICLE Response to the AI Accountability Policy Request for Comment, Int’l Ctr. Law Econ. (Jun. 12, 2023), available at https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/NTIA-AI-Comments-final.pdf.

[65] Kristian Stout, The White House’s AI Action Plan, Int’l Ctr. Law Econ. (Jun. 24, 2025), available at https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/tldr-White-House-AI-ACtion-Plan.pdf.

[66] Matt Perault & Jai Ramaswamy, The Commerce Clause in the Age of AI: Guardrails and Opportunities for State Legislatures, Andreesen Horowitz (2025), https://a16z.com/the-commerce-clause-in-the-age-of-ai-guardrails-and-opportunities-for-state-legislatures.

[67] Max Gulker & Marc Scribner, A Moratorium on State Laws Targeting AI Would Safeguard Innovation and Interstate Commerce, Reason (Aug. 7, 2025), https://reason.org/commentary/a-moratorium-on-state-laws-targeting-ai-would-safeguard-innovation-and-interstate-commerce.

[68] See, e.g., Press Release, Justice Department Files Complaints Against Hawaii, Michigan, New York and Vermont Over Unconstitutional State Climate Actions, Dep’t Just. (May 1, 2025), https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-files-complaints-against-hawaii-michigan-new-york-and-vermont-over.

[69] See, e.g., Memorandum in Support of Motion to Intervene as Plaintiffs by the United States and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Case No. 2:25-cv-02255-DC-AC  (E.D. Cal. Aug. 14, 2025), available at https://www.justice.gov/atr/case-document/file/1459366/dl; see also 28 U.S. Code § 516-517 (DOJ authority to file statements of interest in cases related to important federal interests).

Regulatory Comments

ICLE in the News

Kristian Stout on AI Copyright

ICLE Director of Innovation Policy, Kristian Stout, was quoted in O Globo, a Brazilian news outlet, discussing the balancing act between technological innovation and creator protection in the context of AI copyright.

The decision highlighted three aspects: the lack of evidence that full copies of the works were distributed to users; the existence of filters that prevent substantial reproduction; and a clear distinction between inputs (training data) and outputs (generated results). In the view of Kristian Stout, of the International Center for Law and Economics, “Judge Alsup charted a path that balances technological innovation and creator protection—a paradigm essential to the evolution of responsible AI.”

Read the whole piece here.

T-Mobile Buys USCellular After Clearing Antitrust Review

Eric Fruits, senior scholar at ICLE, is quoted in this JD Supra article on T-Mobile’s $4.4 billion acquisition of UScellular’s wireless operations, with a focus on the transaction’s clearance by the DOJ and FCC, its competitive and structural implications in the U.S. wireless market, and its potential effects on rural connectivity and market consolidation. Read the full article here.

Economist Eric Fruits of the International Center for Law & Economics agreed that the deal is a positive one, saying, “UScellular provides no meaningful competitive constraints on T-Mobile… The transaction presents an opportunity to address the structural challenges of a struggling regional carrier, while boosting competition and innovation across the wireless industry.”

Trump’s Nominee to Oversee Jobs, Inflation Data Faces Shower of Criticism

Brian Albrecht, ICLE Chief Economist, was recently mentioned in Associated Press article discussing concerns over President Trump’s nomination of E.J. Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The paper talks about skepticism about Antoni’s qualifications and his history of partisan interpretations of economic data. Read the full article here.

“There’s just nothing in his writing or his resume to suggest that he’s qualified for the position, besides that he is always manipulating the data to favor Trump in some way,” said Brian Albrecht, chief economist at the International Center for Law and Economics.

“The stock market moves clearly based on these job numbers, and so people with skin in the game think it’s telling them something about the future of their investments,” Albrecht said. “Could it be improved? Absolutely.”

It’s Google’s World. Regulators are Just Living In It

Dirk Auer, director of competition policy at ICLE, is quoted in this Politico article on the recent U.S. court ruling that favored Google in an antitrust case, the suspension of a related EU case, and the implications for regulators attempting to contain the tech giant’s power. Read the full article here.

For these scenarios, “the Overton window had moved quite a bit,” said Dirk Auer, director of antitrust at the the tech-friendly International Center for Law & Economics, pointing to a series of Big Tech cases, including the EU’s own ad tech case, where break-up has been floated. Following Mehta’s order, a break-up, and in particular an EU-led one, has become a lot less imaginable as a scenario.

But U.S. President Donald Trump’s post on Truth Social — threatening foreign governments that impose digital rules on American firms — may ultimately have proven to be “the elephant in the room,” said Auer. It showed how “the U.S. — rightly or wrongly — will not stand by while other regulators act.”

Anthropic Agrees to Pay $1.5 Billion to Settle Lawsuit with Book Authors

Kristian Stout, ICLE Director of Innovation Policy, was quoted in this The NewYork Times article on Anthropic’s $1.5 Billion copyright settlement over using pirated books to train AI. Read the full article here.

Still, the Anthropic settlement ”should not be misread as a referendum against A.I. training,” said Kristian Stout, director of innovation policy at the International Center for Law and Economics. ”Rather, it underscores the distinction between transformative model training and the impermissible creation of pirated libraries.”

”The lesson for A.I. developers is clear: Respect copyright in how data sets are acquired, and follow the example Anthropic itself has now committed to,” he added.

Dan Gilman quoted in Healthcare Brew Article on the Future of Noncompete Agreements in Healthcare

Daniel J. Gilman, ICLE Senior Scholar was quoted in a Healthcare Brew article discussing the uncertain future of noncompete agreements in healthcare as state-level restrictions rise despite the Federal Trade Commission dropping its proposed nationwide ban. Read the full story here.

The future. Chances for a nationwide ban on noncompetes are “slim,” but restrictions are growing state by state, Daniel Gilman, a senior scholar of competition policy at nonprofit research organization International Center for Law & Economics, told us.

Gilman said whether noncompete agreements illegally restrict competition likely depends on the market and factors like how many competitors there are.

FCC Seen Facing Further Calls to Revisit Space Spectrum Rules

ICLE was mentioned in this Communications Daily article, covering  the ICLE/New America satellite webinar, where Patricia Cooper, former VP for satellite government affairs at SpaceX said that FCC faces growing pressure to revisit NGSO spectrum-sharing rules amid ongoing NGSO-GSO proceedings. Read the full article here.

As non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) satellite systems become more established, the FCC will face more pressure to revisit the rules, frameworks and spectrum-sharing approaches they operate under, space regulatory consultant Patricia Cooper said Thursday at a New America/International Center for Law & Economics webinar. She and SpaceX and Amazon Kuiper representatives talked up the FCC’s pending proceeding that contemplates changing the satellite spectrum-sharing regime between NGSO and geostationary orbit (GSO) fixed satellite service in certain bands.

Climate Change vs Insurance Risk

Ian Adams, ICLE Executive Director was quoted by Ability Magazine in an article about how climate change is driving extreme weather that threatens to make parts of the U.S. “uninsurable”. Read the full story here.

But some believe that Proposition 103 has proven to be a rigid set of regulations that, instead of stabilizing the California homeowners insurance market, it has been the cause of major insurance players withdrawing or reducing coverage. Lawrence PowellR.J. Lehmann, & Ian Adams in the paper “Rethinking Prop 103’s Approach to Insurance Regulation” (International Center for Law & Economics on November 6, 2023) conclude that “Prop 103 has created an insurance market that struggles to work efficiently even in the best of times and is virtually impossible to sustain in periods of acute stress.” They assert that Proposition 103 has become a set of strict regulations that, instead of stabilizing the California homeowner’s insurance market, has caused major insurance companies to withdraw or reduce coverage. They conclude that Prop 103 struggles in the best of times and is likely unsustainable during periods of high stress.

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