ICLE Quoted in American Greatness on Limits of Prediction-Driven Antitrust

A recent American Greatness article examines the risks of prediction-driven antitrust enforcement and draws on ICLE research showing how markets often outpace regulatory forecasts. The piece points to failed predictions in major tech and media mergers, highlighting the limits of speculative intervention. Read the full piece here.

Consider a 2023 study from the International Center for Law and Economics (ICLE) that tracked the accuracy of antitrust predictions. Lina Khan foretold that Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods in 2017 would crush competitors. Khan asserted in a New York Times op-ed, “Buying Whole Foods will enable Amazon to leverage and amplify the extraordinary power it enjoys in online markets and delivery, making an even greater share of commerce part of its fief.” Progressive scholars worried that because of the merger, there would no longer be hundreds of stores that everyone goes to, but instead “one everything store.”

How well did these predictions play out?

ICLE reported that by 2023, several large retailers were growing faster than Amazon, while “Whole Foods’ market share has barely budged, and several new players have entered the online retail space.” Target, Walmart, and Kroger are thriving. There is no “everything” store. Amazon’s Whole Foods deal has delivered competition to the grocery market and increased convenience for consumers.

The authors of the ICLE sum up the fruits of hubris: “In the end, reality failed to match the rhetoric. These ambiguous effects are precisely why evidence-based antitrust enforcement—along with remedies that can separate the wheat from the chaff—is as important today as it has ever been.”