Of course, the Merger Guidelines need to be updated.  Except for efficiencies, they haven’t been updated in 17 years.   Lawyers and economists with a regular antitrust practice may not require an update in light of their knowledge of the 2006 Commentary, speeches and agency experience.  But, the rest of the antitrust world does.  The most obvious audience is the courts, who should know what the agencies believe is best practice.  Moreover, as FTC Commissioner Kovacic has stressed, the world marketplace for antitrust ideas needs to have the guidance of the US enforcement agencies.  They should not have to ferret it out from commentaries and speeches.  The Merger Guidelines have been the most emulated feature of US antitrust enforcement worldwide.  It would be shame to squander the leadership role.

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The Horizontal Merger Guidelines are the intellectual cornerstone of modern antitrust law, yet they contain little discussion of innovation or dynamic competition. Although the Merger Guidelines do not constitute law merely by virtue of their promulgation by the agencies, the courts previously have accepted the revised principles that the agencies have advocated. By embracing the reasoning in the Merger Guidelines promulgated several decades ago by the Antitrust Division and the Federal Trade Commission, the federal courts have caused antitrust case law to ossify around a decidedly static view of antitrust. Put differently, in the years since 1980 the Division and the FTC have successfully persuaded the courts to adopt a more explicitly economic approach to merger analysis, yet one that has a static view of competition. The result is not a mere policy preference. It is law. To change that law to have a more dynamic view of competition will therefore require a sustained intellectual effort by the enforcement
agencies (as well as by scholars and practitioners) that, once more, engages the courts to reexamine antitrust law as they did in the late 1970s during the ascendancy of the Chicago School, when antitrust law became infused with its current, static understanding of competition. It appears that, before the Obama Administration took office, the Antitrust Division was attempting to incorporate more dynamic analysis, but the result was inconsistent across different mergers and different doctrinal areas of antitrust law.

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The merger guidelines should be revised, not only to provide clearer guidance, but because the current version makes it harder for the agencies to win cases when they do challenge a merger.  The reason is that the guidelines often don’t fit actual agency practice or modern economic theory.  For example, part of the reason the DOJ lost the Oracle/Peoplesoft merger case was that its guidelines on unilateral effects do not match modern practice or theory.  Such a mismatch makes it harder to convince judges that merger enforcement satisfies traditional rule of law concerns about providing advance notice of legal standards that are clear enough to guide private conduct and meaningfully constrain legal discretion.  Here are the areas on which I would focus.

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1.  Do the Merger Guidelines Need Revision?

Yes.  Conceptually, the current Guidelines incorporate multiple strands of intellectual and legal history with respect to merger analysis that have been layered one upon the other over time, but never effectively integrated.  This now encumbers the application of the Guidelines and may be inhibiting the government’s capacity to effectively and efficiently initiate merger challenges.

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Today’s Wall Street Journal includes a terrific article explaining why insider trading should be deregulated. Following up on last week’s high-profile insider trading charges, George Mason economist Don Boudreaux, whose Cafe Hayek posts are essential reading, succinctly sets forth the deregulatory position (which was first and most famously articulated by Geoff’s dad, Henry Manne).

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Back during the days when socialism was all the rage among the intelligentsia, F.A. Hayek predicted that Soviet-style central planning was destined to fail because the central planners lacked access to, and couldn’t process, all the information needed to allocate productive resources efficiently. Optimal resource allocation can occur, Hayek contended, only if resources are allocated according to the prices that emerge as millions of people buy and sell on the information to which they alone are privy. Hayek maintained that market prices dictate the highest and best use of resources and that such prices cannot be produced by a single mind (i.e., the Soviet-style central planner) but can emerge only as millions of folks reveal their needs and desires by trading amongst themselves.

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One of the most significant challenges facing competition policy today is defining the appropriate role of antitrust law within the context of intellectual property right licensing by standard-setting organizations (“SSOs”).  Many commentators believe it is necessary to apply the full force of the antitrust laws, and sometimes special rules that would increase the scope of antitrust, to the standard-setting process in order to adequately oversee what they perceive as a unique opportunity for anticompetitive behavior.  Indeed, antitrust agencies both in the United States and around the world have expressed agreement with the notion that the standard setting process requires strong enforcement of antitrust liability rules in order to ensure efficient outcomes that benefit consumers.  However, this view largely fails to consider the costs of antitrust.  In particular, it fails to recognize the limits of antitrust when the marginal benefit of antitrust enforcement is slight and the potential for erroneous enforcement (“false positives”) and thus, the likelihood that procompetitive behavior will be deterred, is high.  The Supreme Court itself has emphasized repeatedly that the scope of the antitrust laws should be responsive to such a cost-benefit analysis.

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The WSJ Reports that the American Booksellers Association has knocked on Christine Varney’s door at the Antitrust Division to complain about the new low prices resulting from the price war between Amazon, Target and Wal-Mart.  The complaint?

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Well, he warned us.  But now that it’s here it sounds so incredible.

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