Spotlight

April 2025

HIGHLIGHTS

ICLE Panel: The Future of Antitrust, Lessons From Former Enforcers

With new or incoming leadership at both the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the U.S. Department of Justice Antitrust Division (DOJ), the International Center for . . .

With new or incoming leadership at both the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the U.S. Department of Justice Antitrust Division (DOJ), the International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) gathered former antitrust enforcers to explore a critical question: What’s next for these agencies?

In a conversation moderated by ICLE President Geoffrey A. Manne, and with introductory remarks by ICLE Senior Scholar Daniel J. Gilman, experts Bill Blumenthal (former FTC General Counsel), Andrew C. Finch (former Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General and former Acting Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust), and Maureen Ohlhausen (former Commissioner and former Acting Chair of the FTC) discussed the future of U.S. antitrust enforcement.

Video of the full panel is embedded below.

US Export Controls on AI and Semiconductors: Two Divergent Visions

Introduction The United States currently stands at a critical strategic crossroads regarding its policy on advanced semiconductor exports to China, particularly those used for artificial-intelligence . . .

Introduction

The United States currently stands at a critical strategic crossroads regarding its policy on advanced semiconductor exports to China, particularly those used for artificial-intelligence (AI) systems. The Biden administration implemented unprecedented restrictions on chip exports and semiconductor manufacturing equipment in October 2022,[1] which were subsequently expanded and refined in October 2023[2] and December 2024.[3] These decisions have significantly shaped the technological landscape and set the stage for what may become a defining issue for the new Trump administration.

At the heart of this policy debate is a fundamental question about timelines and predictions: how quickly will transformative AI capabilities develop, and what will China’s indigenous semiconductor capacity look like when they do? The answer to these questions profoundly affect whether current export-control policies will achieve their strategic objectives or potentially backfire.

The case for maintaining or strengthening chip export controls, championed by figures like Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei,[4] rests on the prediction that transformative AI capabilities will emerge relatively soon (within two-to-three years). If this “short-term advancement” scenario holds true, then denying China access to cutting-edge chips could meaningfully diminish their ability to deploy advanced AI systems at-scale, even if they were to be successful in either developing or copying the models. As Nathan Lambert notes, “a large part of export controls, if they work, is just that the amount of AI that can be run in China is going to be much lower.”[5]

Conversely, skeptics of chip-export controls, like Ben Thompson, question the long-term efficacy of such restrictions.[6] If truly significant AI advancements take longer (perhaps 10 or more years), China will likely develop its own chip-manufacturing capabilities during that timeframe. Under this “long-term independence” scenario, the primary effect of existing controls may be to deny revenue to U.S. firms like Nvidia Corp., while accelerating China’s push for technological self-sufficiency. As Dylan Patel observes: “China will win because of these restrictions long-term, unless AI does something in the short-term.”[7] Notably, some observers combine skepticism of export controls on chips with support for strengthening export controls on the equipment needed to manufacture chips.[8]

From a law & economics perspective, the question turns both on what the United States aims to accomplish by restricting chip exports and AI tools, and which future scenario is most likely.

This issue brief does not advocate for a specific approach to export controls. Instead, it aims to illuminate the assumptions, tradeoffs, and considerations that should inform this critical policy choice. By clarifying how differing forecasts about AI development and China’s technological trajectory recommend different optimal policies, we hope to provide the new administration with a framework to align its export-control strategy with its broader technological and geopolitical objectives.

I. Background: The Current Landscape

In recent, competition between the United States and China to develop their respective capacities for AI deployment and semiconductor manufacturing has intensified dramatically. This has been marked by several major developments that illustrated both the potential value of current U.S. export controls, and the limits of that strategy.

In January 2025, the Chinese AI firm Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Basic Technology Research Co. (DeepSeek) released its R1 reasoning model, which appeared to demonstrate capabilities that were competitive with the U.S.-based OpenAI’s o1.[9] What made this announcement particularly significant was that DeepSeek claimed to have accomplished this with substantially less computational resources than American companies typically employ—reportedly training the model for approximately $5-6 million, rather than the billions that some had assumed necessary. While some questioned these figures—noting they excluded research costs, distillation from other models, and human labor—the development nonetheless demonstrated China’s ability to innovate within existing constraints.[10]

This followed the 2023 revelation that Huawei, despite being subject to some of the strictest U.S. controls, had produced its Mate 60 Pro smartphone featuring a domestically manufactured 7nm processor made by SMIC.[11] While this doesn’t match Taiwan’s most advanced nodes (currently at 3nm), it represented a significant achievement for a company operating under significant restrictions. As Ben Thompson observed: “The existence of this chip wasn’t a surprise for those paying close attention: SMIC had made a 7nm chip a year earlier.” Nonetheless, the announcement triggered “overwrought reaction in Washington D.C.,” which led to further restrictions.[12]

The current U.S. export-control regime, established during the Biden administration, operates through several mechanisms. Fundamentally, it restricts the export to China of cutting-edge graphics processing units (GPUs) used for AI applications. The initial controls focused on controlling both interconnection bandwidth and computing performance, as measured by floating-point operations per-second (FLOPS). Later iterations primarily targeted computing performance. Alternate versions of the same chips (such as Nvidia’s H800 and H200) were created specifically for the Chinese market with reduced capabilities (so-called “nerfed” chips) in order to comply with these restrictions.

Beyond chip exports, the controls also restrict semiconductor-manufacturing equipment (SME) needed to produce advanced nodes, with particularly tight controls on extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines produced solely by Dutch firm ASML Holding. The restrictions also limit the ability of “U.S. persons” to support or service advanced semiconductor-manufacturing facilities in China, with rules that target both hardware and knowledge transfer.

The export controls invoke the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR) to extend U.S. jurisdiction over foreign-made items that incorporate U.S. technology, or that were manufactured using U.S. equipment. As Gregory Allen notes, the December 2024 update to the U.S. export controls even created “new FDPRs and updated de minimis provisions” that expanded unilateral U.S. authority, potentially capturing “all of the SME made by any company on Earth.”[13]

These restrictions have created a complex set of responses and adaptations. While they have slowed China’s advancement at the cutting edge, they haven’t stopped it entirely. As Allen noted, “SMIC was already producing and selling 7nm chips no later than July 2022 and potentially as early as July 2021, despite having no EUV machines.”[14] But the controls have “dramatically constrained SMIC’s ability to scale up 7nm production,” limiting output to the “low tens of thousands” of wafers monthly, instead of the “hundreds of thousands” originally planned.[15]

The restrictions have also spurred efficiency innovations. DeepSeek, for example, developed advanced techniques to overcome bandwidth limitations in the H800 chips they could legally access, programming “20 of the 132 processing units on each H800 specifically to manage cross-chip communications” by working at a lower programming level than Nvidia’s CUDA (for “Compute Unified Device Architecture”) parallel-computing platform.[16] Such adaptations reflect China’s determination to progress in AI development, despite the constraints imposed by U.S. export controls.

Meanwhile, the global semiconductor landscape remains dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), which produces the most advanced chips worldwide. As Ben Thompson notes, Taiwan’s proximity to mainland China, and China’s longstanding claims on the territory, contribute to a precarious geopolitical situation in which “TSMC’s foundries — and Samsung’s — are within easy reach of Chinese missiles,” which in turn presents “a major issue if you are a U.S. military planner.”[17] This dependence on Taiwan has motivated both U.S. political efforts to onshore chip manufacturing and Chinese ambitions for AI self-sufficiency.

It is against this complex backdrop that it now falls to the Trump administration to reassess U.S. export-control policy, weighing both the existing controls’ demonstrated effects and the potential trajectories for both AI development and Chinese semiconductor capacity in the coming years.

II. Key Decision Factors

A. Timeline Considerations

The most crucial factor in determining optimal export-control policy is predicting the timeline for transformative AI development. These predictions shape whether export controls will secure a meaningful advantage, or simply accelerate China’s push for independence.

1.  The short-term AI-advancement scenario

Proponents of the short-term AI-advancement scenario argue that truly transformative AI capabilities are imminent. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has suggested that “super powerful AI” could emerge by 2026-27, providing whichever nation possesses it with significant military advantages.[18] This prediction is used to justify maintaining strong export controls to ensure the United States and its democratic allies maintain their lead during this critical window.

Under this scenario, denying China access to cutting-edge chips would effectively limit that nation’s ability to deploy advanced AI models at-scale, even if the underlying technology could be developed or copied. As Dylan Patel notes:

To some extent, training a model does effectively nothing… The thing that Dario [Amodei is] (…) speaking to is the implementation of that model, once trained to then create huge economic growth, huge increases in military capabilities… But that requires a significant amount of compute.[19]

This argument is bolstered by accounts from Chinese AI firms themselves. DeepSeek CEO Liang Wenfeng has admitted that “money has never been the problem for us; bans on shipments of advanced chips are the problem.”[20]

2. Long-term AI-advancement scenario

Those who foresee a longer timeline for transformative AI argue that export controls could be counterproductive. Ben Thompson contends that denying China access to advanced chips primarily serves to sew “the seeds for competition in an industry — chips and semiconductor equipment — over which the U.S. has a dominant position.”[21] In other words, if significant AI breakthroughs take a decade or more, the current restrictions may simply motivate and accelerate China’s development of indigenous chipmaking capabilities.

The timeline debate reflects fundamental uncertainty about the pace and trajectory of AI progress. As Nathan Lambert observes:

if you’re making me give a year, I’m going to be like, “Okay, I have AI CEOs saying this. They’ve been saying two years for a while. (…) I need to take their word seriously, but also understand that they have different incentives.” So I would (…) add a few years to that. Which is how you get something similar to 2030 or a little after 2030..[22]

B. Technical Realities

In addition to the importance of predictions about AI timelines, U.S. export-control policy must also take account of practical technical considerations.

1. Training versus inference compute

Export controls must distinguish between computational power (commonly referred to as “compute”) used for training new AI models and for inference (deploying existing models). While training frontier models requires enormous compute resources, inference (running those models) also demands significant hardware, especially for advanced reasoning capabilities. Nathan Lambert points out that reasoning models like OpenAI’s o1 require especially significant amounts of computational power.[23]

2. China’s optimization innovations

One counterargument to export controls comes from China’s demonstrated ability to optimize AI systems under hardware constraints. DeepSeek’s R1 model achieved capabilities competitive with OpenAI’s o1 despite being forced by U.S. sanctions to use less-powerful H800 GPUs with constrained memory bandwidth.[24] AI investor Nat Friedman poses the question:

is it in fact the case that, if you impose sanctions on China so that they can’t get as much compute, then all you do is give them this constraint to optimize against, which says, ‘How can we squeeze every little bit of IQ out of every flop that we’ve got?’, and they just find clever ways of doing a lot more with a lot less.[25]

But optimization of this kind also produces tradeoffs; a company that focuses on optimization does so at the expense of putting their scarce top engineers on other tasks. It is at least possible that U.S. researchers who do not face such constraints will use their time to develop even better AI applications.

3. Manufacturing challenges beyond EUV

While export controls on EUV-lithography equipment have successfully prevented China from producing the most advanced logic chips, Chinese manufacturers have demonstrated the ability to produce 7nm chips using older deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography through techniques like multi-patterning. As Gregory Allen notes: “SMIC was already producing and selling 7 nm chips no later than July 2022 and potentially as early as July 2021, despite having no EUV machines.”14 This raises questions about the long-term effectiveness of equipment-focused export controls.

In response, Ben Thompson has argued that “it’s reasonable to assume that [SMIC’s] fab won’t progress further without a Chinese supplier developing” EUV.[26] Thompson advocates strengthening export controls on equipment that would allow China to make state-of-the-art chips, while abandoning export controls on finished chips.[27]

C. Economic Impacts

Export-control decisions carry significant economic consequences that must be weighed against potential security benefits.

1. Effects on US semiconductor companies

The impact of export controls on U.S. semiconductor companies has been debated extensively. Wafer-fabrication-equipment (WFE) suppliers have argued that export controls threaten their business model, with some politicians claiming that the companies face a “death spiral.”[28] The industry-research firm SemiAnalysis counters, however, that “[d]espite a short-term shock or loss of business, the slack is taken up by customers ex-China within a few quarters” and that “the 24 months under export controls have been among the best in history for American WFE suppliers.”[29]

For AI-chip manufacturers like Nvidia, the picture is more complex. Export controls harm Nvidia directly by reducing demand for their chips, but potentially help Nvidia indirectly by making it more difficult for Chinese competitors to develop products that perform as well. As Gregory Allen notes, Nvidia would likely prefer not to be bound by export controls.[30] On the other hand, however, “there are some elements of the new export control package that actually help Nvidia by hurting its Chinese competitors.”[31]

2. Taiwan’s economic security

The semiconductor industry, particularly TSMC, is critically important for Taiwan. As home to the world’s leading advanced-chip manufacturer, Taiwan has historically occupied a unique strategic niche, with its economic value serving as a potential deterrent against Chinese military aggression. U.S. export controls that look to hinder China’s technological advancement thus may paradoxically erode this carefully balanced deterrence mechanism. This shift could fundamentally alter the calculus of potential conflict by making Taiwan less economically indispensable to China, and thereby increasing the risk of military action.

As Ben Thompson notes:

… both China and the U.S. need access to the best chip maker in the world, along with a host of other high-precision pieces of the global electronics supply chain. That means that a hot war, which would almost certainly result in some amount of destruction to these capabilities, would be devastating…one of the risks of cutting China off from TSMC is that the deterrent value of TSMC’s operations is diminished.[32]

There are two mechanisms at play. First, to the extent that Chinese businesses cannot buy TSMC’s products, then a disruption due to war would not worsen their situation. Second, export controls serve to encourage the development of domestic manufacturing capacity in China for state-of-the-art chips. When Chinese manufacturers achieve this goal, then it may no longer be possible to  reinstate Chinese economic dependence on Taiwan.

3. Effects on US economy beyond semiconductor manufacturing

The short-term effects of chip export controls on the U.S. economy may be small beyond companies like WFE suppliers and Nvidia. But to the extent that they serve to reduce China’s dependence on Taiwanese manufacturing, the controls may increase the likelihood of a war over Taiwan. A hot war, disrupting all semiconductor manufacturing in Taiwan, would likely have very significant consequences for the U.S. economy. Taiwan manufactures not only the state-of-the-art (leading-edge) semiconductors used in iPhones and Nvidia’s top AI-focused products, but also other commodity (trailing-edge) chips that are indispensable for vast swaths of the modern economy, used in “everything from cars to stereos to refrigerators.”[33]

D. Geopolitical Dimensions

Export controls function within a broader geopolitical context that shapes their implementation and consequences.

1. Allied cooperation challenges

Effective export controls require cooperation from key allies, particularly Japan and the Netherlands, which host critical semiconductor-equipment manufacturers. Gregory Allen notes that: “White House officials have been discussing restrictions on capital equipment with counterparts in the Hague and Tokyo since Biden’s inauguration,” but that “the Netherlands apparently does not yet see eye-to-eye with U.S. assessments on the need to set the threshold at 16/14 nm or smaller for logic chips.”[34]

This cooperation challenge reflects differing economic interests and threat perceptions. In 2023, 29% of Dutch firm ASML’s sales were to customers in China, creating a strong disincentive to further restrict exports.[35]

2. Taiwan’s vulnerability

As noted in the previous section on economic impacts, Taiwan’s geopolitical vulnerability represents perhaps the most critical consideration in export-control policy. If export controls reduce China’s dependence on Taiwan, while maintaining Taiwan’s importance to the United States, this could create dangerous incentives for Chinese action. With broad and effective U.S.-imposed export controls on chips, China doesn’t risk disrupting their semiconductor supply chain by attacking Taiwan. On the other hand, a war in Taiwan would likely create massive disruptions for the U.S. economy due to the level of U.S. dependence on Taiwan-made chips.

III. Conclusion

The debate surrounding AI-related U.S. export controls reflects a fundamental uncertainty about technological trajectories. While the actual pace of AI advancement will ultimately determine policy efficacy, decisionmakers must act based on incomplete information. This brief has outlined two plausible scenarios—one in which transformative AI capabilities emerge rapidly and another in which they develop more gradually—and described how each suggests different optimal approaches to export controls.

For policymakers navigating this uncertainty, several principles warrant consideration, regardless which scenario materializes. First, export controls should be designed with sufficient flexibility to adapt as the technological landscape evolves. Static policies risk becoming either irrelevant or counterproductive as conditions change. Second, policy effectiveness depends heavily on multilateral cooperation. Unilateral actions by the United States face significant limitations, as demonstrated by China’s ability to procure restricted technologies through third-party countries. Third, the economic impacts of export controls extend beyond immediate revenue considerations to long-term market positioning and technological leadership. This includes the possibility that they will make it likelier that China will attack Taiwan, and the disruption to the U.S. economy that would entail.

Ultimately, the export-control decisions made in 2025 will reflect implicit forecasts about AI development trajectories. By acknowledging these forecasts explicitly and establishing clear metrics to evaluate them, policymakers can create more resilient policies capable of adaptation as technological realities unfold. Whichever approach the administration pursues, it should be implemented with clear objectives, regular reassessment mechanisms, and recognition of the inherent uncertainties in predicting technological futures.

[1] Martijn Rasser & Kevin Wolf, The Right Time for Chip Export Controls, Lawfare (Dec. 13, 2022), https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/right-time-chip-export-controls.

[2] Gregory Allen, Understanding the Biden Administration’s Updated Export Controls, Cent. Strateg. Int. Stud. (Dec. 11, 2024), https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-biden-administrations-updated-export-controls.

[3] Id.

[4] Dario Amodei, On DeepSeek and Export Controls, Dario Amodei (Jan. 2025), https://darioamodei.com/on-deepseek-and-export-controls.

[5] Lex Fridman, Dylan Patel, & Nathan Lambert, DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters, Lex Fridman Podcast (Feb. 3, 2025), https://lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan-patel-nathan-lambert-transcript.

[6] See, e.g., Ben Thompson, DeepSeek FAQ, Stratechery (Jan. 27, 2025), https://stratechery.com/2025/deepseek-faq.

[7] Fridman, Patel, & Lambert, supra note 5.

[8] Ben Thompson, AI Promise and Chip Precariousness, Stratechery (Feb. 25, 2025), https://stratechery.com/2025/ai-promise-and-chip-precariousness.

[9] Thompson, supra note 6.

[10] Id.

[11] Id.

[12] Id.

[13] Allen, supra note 2.

[14] Id.

[15] Id.

[16] Thompson, supra note 6.

[17] Ben Thompson, Chips and Geopolitics, Stratechery (May 19, 2020), https://stratechery.com/2020/chips-and-geopolitics.

[18] Amodei, supra note 4.

[19] Fridman, Patel, & Lambert, supra note 5.

[20] Jordan Schneider et al., Deepseek: The Quiet Giant Leading China’s AI Race, ChinaTalk (Nov. 27, 2024),  https://www.chinatalk.media/p/deepseek-ceo-interview-with-chinas; see also Allen, supra note 2.

[21] Thompson, supra note 6.

[22] Fridman, Patel, & Lambert, supra note 5.

[23] Id.

[24] Thompson, supra note 6.

[25] Ben Thompson, An Interview with Daniel Gross and Nat Friedman About Models, Margins, and Moats, Stratechery (Jan. 23, 2025), https://stratechery.com/2025/an-interview-with-daniel-gross-and-nat-friedman-about-models-margins-and-moats.

[26] Thompson, supra note 8.

[27] Id.

[28] Dylan Patel, Jeff Koch, & Sravan Kundojjala, Fab Whack-A-Mole: Chinese Companies Are Evading U.S. Sanctions, SemiAnalysis (Oct. 28, 2024), https://www.semianalysis.com/p/fab-whack-a-mole-chinese-companies.

[29] Id.

[30] Allen, supra note 2.

[31] Id.

[32] Ben Thompson, Taiwan and Tech’s Geopolitical Realities, ARM on Mac?, TSMC’s Choice, Stratechery (May 11, 2020), https://stratechery.com/2020/taiwan-and-techs-geopolitical-realities-arm-on-mac-tsmcs-choice.

[33] See Thompson, supra note 8.

[34] Allen, supra note 2.

[35] Toby Sterling, ASML Expects US, Dutch Export Rules to Hit China Sales by 10-15%, Reuters (Jan. 24, 2024), https://www.reuters.com/technology/asml-expects-us-dutch-export-rules-hit-china-sales-by-10-15-2024-01-24.

Regulatory Reconquista: Ex-Ante Regulation of Digital Platforms in Latin America

The rise of digital markets has kicked off public-policy debates around the globe premised on the assumption that such markets’ special characteristics pose unique . . .

Abstract

The rise of digital markets has kicked off public-policy debates around the globe premised on the assumption that such markets’ special characteristics pose unique challenges for antitrust enforcement. This has led several Latin American policymakers and agencies to consider the enactment of ex-ante regulation or “digital competition regulations” (DCRs) similar to the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA). Some Latin American agencies and policymakers (e.g., in Mexico and Brazil) are already well on their way toward exploring that path. This paper challenges the fundamental premise that digital markets require de novo approaches to competition law, and recommends that Latin American jurisdictions follow their own policy path based on the region’s market and political realities and challenges.

The introduction briefly explains how Latin American legislation—particularly competition laws—long have been inspired by European counterparts. It also describes the “power competition” among developed countries that creates incentives for European policymakers to seek to expand their regulatory sphere of influence—in the case of the EU pushing Latin America to adopt its path, this can fairly be described as a modern “Reconquista” of sorts.

Section 1 reviews public-policy reports on the digital economy in Latin America in order to identify any shortcomings or regulatory bottlenecks. It concludes that while competition in digital markets is important, insufficiently competitive digital markets are not among Latin America’s most urgent public-policy priorities. Indeed, Section 1B illustrates that the region’s digital markets are “reasonably competitive.” While some actors, such as Google and Microsoft, appear to enjoy large and durable market shares, which could indicate excess market power, other so-called “Big Tech” platforms have much smaller market shares and face significant competition. In fact, new actors are thriving in the e-commerce, FinTech, ride-hailing, and food-delivery markets. This suggests that barriers to entry are much lower than proponents of DCRs often make them out to be.

Moreover, as highlighted in Section 2A, digital markets generally do not exhibit the kind of “market failures” that warrant ex-ante regulation. They are not characterized by natural monopolies, significant negative externalities, public goods, or informational asymmetries. Section 2B explores arguments made by DCR proponents that antitrust law is too slow and cumbersome to address competition issues in digital markets. Section 2C analyzes a number of key cases, investigations, and advocacy reports produced by Latin American competition agencies, which demonstrate that much can be done to address purported competition problems by employing the procedures and remedies of traditional antitrust law (even if Latin American agencies have not actually done much).

Finally, Section 3 examines possible reforms of those policies that hinder Latin American firms and innovators from growing and creating more digital services and products. We conclude that Latin American entrepreneurs would benefit greatly from regulatory and licensing reform; greater incentives for private investment (especially in telecommunications infrastructure); elimination of legal barriers to entry; labor and tax reforms; the alleviation of unnecessary regulatory burdens; and better provision of public goods, such as infrastructure and education, in order to unleash the market’s talent and creativity.

Introduction

European law has long influenced legislation in Latin America. This was most obvious during the colonial era, when most countries were either Spanish, Portuguese, or French colonies, but the trend has continued long after the United States gained more economic and political influence in the region. Examples can be found in the civil codes of several Latin American countries that were approved in the late 1970s and early 1980. These codes were strongly influenced by Italy’s Codice Civile of 1942.[1]

In recent times, the growing influence of the European Union has manifested itself in various ways. One area where this has been most apparent is data privacy. The enactment of the EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in 2016 resulted in the proliferation of data-privacy laws across Latin America that were substantially similar to the GDPR,[2] even despite mounting evidence that the GDPR hindered venture-capital investment and increased market concentration in Europe.[3]

Competition law has not been immune to this influence. According to Alfonso Miranda, “the structure of EU competition law has been adopted by the legislations of the Latin-American countries and by the Andean Community of Nations – CAN.”[4] Likewise, Julián Peña explains that while the “economic reasoning” of U.S. antitrust law has had a major influence in Latin America, “most of the competition legal framework in Latin America during this period has been mainly influenced by the European model (e.g., Argentina, Brazil, and Peru), whether in substance (e.g., abuse of dominant position) or in the procedure.”[5] In Argentina, as German Coloma notes, Act 22,262 enacted in 1980, “implied a movement towards rules that were analogous to European standards, since Articles 1 and 2 of Act 22,262 were clearly inspired by Articles 85 and 86 of the Treaty of Rome.”[6]

Against this backdrop, there is a growing sense that European law is once again set to influence policy in Latin America, this time in digital-competition policy. Due to geopolitical considerations, the European Union is looking to increase its influence in the region (as well as the presence of its domestic firms) by imposing its regulatory model for the digital sphere.[7] This strategy can be seen as part of an unfolding “great power competition.”[8]

Unfortunately, there is reason to believe Europe’s digital regulations are not guided solely by concern for consumer welfare, and are instead crafted to promote the interests of European firms. There is, indeed, some indirect evidence of the protectionist motivations of the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA).[9] French President Emmanuel Macron declared in 2020: “If we want technological sovereignty, we’ll have to have to adapt our competition law, which has perhaps been too much focused solely on the consumer and not enough on defending European champions.”[10] As Meredith Broadbent has explained:

…the DMA threatens to impose heavy-handed antitrust measures and to exclusively levy punitive fines on large U.S. firms, while leaving other countries’ tech firms—namely European, Chinese, and perhaps Russian companies supplying essentially the same services—untouched. Europe’s success in assuming the role of global standards-setter in the area of privacy under the GDPR has energized Brussels, as it seeks further control over the business practices of successful U.S. companies.[11]

Despite this evidence, policymakers, regulators, and competition agencies around the world have in recent years rushed to introduce so-called “digital competition regulations” (DCRs),[12] inspired primarily by the DMA. Latin American policymakers and agencies are no exception.[13] The Andean Community (CAN), for instance, is considering specific regulations for digital markets. In late 2022, CAN General Secretary Jorge Hernando Pedraza declared:

We are sure that this initiative will strengthen the specialized knowledge of digital markets at the regional level and the application of community rules for the investigation and sanction of anticompetitive practices and abuse of dominance in the Andean region, without prejudice to the evaluation of the possible development of specific regulations for digital markets, as part of our agenda.[14] (emphasis added)

In Mexico, the Federal Economic Competition Commission (COFECE) published a digital-strategy report[15] that proposed creating a digital-markets competition unit similar to the one recently implemented in the United Kingdom.[16] COFECE’s strategy contemplates:

Whether or not it is necessary to identify, under specific categories, digital platforms with certain capacities to influence or distort markets; [and]

Whether or not it is necessary to consider specific regulation to delimit the conduct of digital platforms that fall into said categories or that may otherwise distort markets.[17] (emphasis added)

In Peru, the National Institute for the Defense of Competition and Protection of Intellectual Property (INDECOPI) has proposed—in a market report on the financial-technology (FinTech) sector—studying the possibility of enacting “open banking” or “open finance” regulations to “level the information playing field.”[18]

Brazil, however, appears to be “leading the race,” as it is the only Latin American country with an actual regulatory proposal. In October 2022, Federal Deputy João Maia introduced Bill No. 2768/2022 on digital markets regulation.[19] The bill’s statement of reasons included a discussion about the need to avoid imposing “absolute prohibitions” on digital platforms, but it also included a non-rebuttable presumption that any company with annual operational income of more than R$70 million should be considered a “gatekeeper” (“detentores de controle de acceso essencial”). The measure would mandate that these gatekeepers give “equal and non-discriminatory treatment” to “professional users” and “not to refuse to provide access to their digital platforms to professional users.”

The bill also specifically mentioned the DMA in its statement of reasons:

In the European Commission, the ‘Digital Markets Act,’ aimed at the so-called ‘gatekeepers’ in the digital world, is quite detailed and was approved in 2022.

We believe it is appropriate to introduce regulation in line with the European Commission, but in a much less detailed way. This is because we are dealing with issues of extreme relevance, which require regulatory responses much faster than what is possible in defense of competition but which are sufficiently new to indicate that it is not appropriate to place an ex-ante straitjacket on economic agents, with a series of absolute prohibitions.[20]

More recently, Brazil’s Ministry of Finance unveiled its report on the economics and competition dynamics of digital platforms.[21] The report did not recommend implementing DCRs but instead called for a “more flexible,” quasi-regulatory approach similar to the existing regulatory regimes in Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom. This would entail, the ministry reports, applying “case-by-case specific obligations” to “systemically relevant digital platforms.”

In short, while it remains unclear the extent to which DCRs will be implemented in Latin America, there is no doubt that Europe and the DMA exerts at least some influence among Latin American policymakers. This raises a crucial question: is the EU’s approach sensible? And even if it is sensible for the EU, does that necessarily make it an appropriate regulatory approach in the context of Latin America? These questions are analyzed in the following sections.

I. If DCRs Are the Solution, What’s the Problem?

This section reviews public-policy reports on the digital economy in Latin America in order to identify relevant shortcomings and bottlenecks. While competition concerns remain important across the region, they are not among the most urgent public-policy priorities for Latin America. Moreover, Part B illustrates that the region’s digital markets are “reasonably competitive.” While some actors—such as Google and Microsoft—do appear to enjoy large and durable market shares, which could indicate excess market power, other so-called “Big Tech” platforms have much smaller market shares and face significant competition. Indeed, new actors are thriving in the e-commerce, FinTech, ride-hailing, and food-delivery markets. This suggests that barriers to entry are much lower than DCR proponents often make them out to be.

A. Digital Markets in Latin America

Before considering new regulations, Latin American countries should think carefully about their policy objectives and the best way to accomplish them. Among the questions that must be asked:

  • Is there a need to “tame” large digital platforms?
  • Do these platforms somehow constrain growth and innovation?
  • Do they create inefficiencies or inequities?
  • Are “contestability” and/or “fairness” insufficient in digital markets?

It is safe to say that there is little evidence that would merit answering any of these questions affirmatively. If anything, Latin American societies need greater access to and use of digital platforms so that citizens can more readily access information, education, markets, and opportunities.

One important problem is that the proposed DCRs discussed in the introductory section are grounded primarily on theoretical concerns about competition—not the diagnosis of actual competition problems (or any other sort of market problems) in the Latin American digital economy. In contrast, most public-policy reports that actually analyze the Latin American digital economy see it as a tool to enhance economic growth, knowledge, productivity, and social inclusion, and highlight its enormous growth in recent years.

A 2013 report by the United Nations’ Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), for example, found that:

After two decades of implementing policies that have emphasized the development of infrastructure, access to the Internet and the diffusion of ICTs, evidence shows a significant share of the digital economy in GDP. ECLAC estimates indicate that, on average for Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, it reaches at least 3.2%, a non-negligible figure if we consider that in the 27 countries of the European Union the corresponding percentage is 5%.[22]

But unlike in the United States or (to a lesser degree) Europe, information and communications technology (ICT) has not led to broad productivity increases in Latin America. Rather than insufficient competition, the primary reason for this appears to be “the existence of barriers to the use of ICTs as a source of increased productivity and growth.”[23] Latin American firms lack the management efficiencies, human capital, and broader infrastructure that their counterparts in the United States and Europe enjoy.[24] Failures to engage in effective state modernization or to proper education on the use of ICT may also play a role.[25]

A more recent OECD report, produced in concert with the EU and the United Nations, underscored that this “digital divide” has served as a barrier that impedes Latin Americans from taking advantage of ICT to foster growth and productivity,[26] and noted the region still has a “high and increasing” productivity gap with developed economies.[27] Citing the Digital Ecosystem Development Index’s measurements of the impact of digitalization on economic development, the report notes that:

Despite significant advances in the last 15 years, LAC’s digital ecosystem is at an intermediate level of development (index value 48.7 on a scale of 0 to 100), compared with Africa (34.2), Asia-Pacific (42.1), the Middle East and North Africa (55.4), the OECD area (66.8), Western Europe (67.6) and North America (75.4).[28]

While the index does mention “competitive intensity” as one of the area in which Latin America continues to fall short, this referred only to competition in telecommunications services (mobile services, fixed broadband, mobile broadband and cable TV).[29]

But as I have argued, a lack of competition in “digital markets” or digital platforms is not the primary problem holding back the productive use of digital technologies in Latin America. More basic problems like access to digital services and a general lack of knowledge about how to use ICT remain the main bottlenecks. While Latin American countries have experienced significant growth in internet access—the percentage of the population who use the internet regularly nearly doubled from 2010 to 2018, reaching 68%,[30] while more recent data suggest that 75% of the population now uses the internet[31]—there remains a large gap in the quality of access.

[D]espite improvements, connection speeds are below the world average, limiting types of services and apps available. Low connection speed prevents simultaneous apps, a critical issue during the coronavirus (Covid?19) pandemic.[32]

Moreover, in Latin American markets where relatively few people have the skills to use ICT, it is significantly harder for entrepreneurs to exploit opportunities on digital platforms, let alone to create their own platforms and complementary services. This, naturally, also applies to business users who are unable to take advantage of digital services. The fact is that:

Less than half of Latin Americans have used a computer or have sufficient skills to use computers for basic professional tasks. …

The most common daily activities among those with computer skills were using the Internet for information gathering (73%) and email (69%), followed by real?time communications, such as videoconference or chat. Only 8% used computers for programming. Computer and Internet use varies by country. In Mexico, 15% use ICT to conduct transactions at least once per week, compared with 30% in Chile.[33] (emphasis added)

According to the OECD’s 2019 “Shaping the Digital Transformation in Latin America” report:

In terms of broadband access and use, although relevant advances have been made, there is still a long way to go. As noted above, some 38% of the population of LAC was not yet connected to the Internet in 2017, implying that some 237 million people were considered to be “offline”. Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, alone, for their size and populations, jointly still need to connect around 133 million people. In addition, that estimate does not yet qualify for the type or quality of Internet access. From the 391 million connected people in LAC, for example, only one-quarter of them, or 103 million, had a fixed broadband subscription at the end of 2017 (Figure 2.1). However, progress is being made rapidly, and more than 40 million more people were connected to a fixed network at the end of 2017 than in 2014 (OECD/IDB, 2016). Moreover, some 86 million additional people were online in 2017 compared to 2014. [34]

The report also highlighted lack of skills as a barrier to ICT adoption:

Skills levels are poor in the region, due to the low quality of primary and secondary education and structural barriers. Young Latin Americans perform poorly in reading, mathematics and science compared to their counterparts in OECD countries. Between 23 and 70% of young Latin Americans enrolled in school do not acquire basic-level proficiency in reading, mathematics and science, according to PISA results. (…) less than 3.6% of LAC students perform among the highest levels of proficiency in either mathematics, reading or science. In contrast, 15% of students in OECD countries perform in the top in at least one of these subjects.

This constitutes an obstacle to further develop more specific skills and may hamper innovation. While the latest PISA results show a moderate improvement over time in students’ learning outcomes, results remain poor compared to many other regions in the world.

(…) 43 million young Latin Americans aged 15 to 29, or 31% of the youth population, have not completed secondary education and are not enrolled in school. Even those who graduate suffer from poor quality education and transition into adult life with skills far down the ranks in comparative international evaluations such as PISA.[35] (citations omitted, emphasis added).

The 2019 OECD report did mention that “ensuring sufficient competition in the digital economy is also a challenge” and that “competition authorities must be prepared with flexible tools and co-operate across borders to address transnational competition issues.”[36] It also included a section on “Competition in the Digital Economy,” which noted that “digital technologies and data lead to greater competition in many markets” but that they “also have demonstrated a potential to tilt others toward greater concentration, market power or even dominance.”[37]

It is important to point out, however, that the report mentioned only potential competition problems or challenges to competition agencies. The report did not reference any data regarding harms to competition, or highlight any market trends that suggest rising concentration or market power. More importantly, the report did not suggest any major policy changes, let alone endorse DCRs or any other kind of regulation. Instead, it recommended greater coordination among the various jurisdictions’ competition agencies, as well as with other (e.g., consumer-protection or data-privacy) agencies within their own jurisdictions:

As digital transformation continues to affect competition, it may lead to some new challenges for competition policy frameworks that were designed with traditional products in mind. One such challenge is that digitalisation may introduce new dimensions of competition in markets, as well as new ways to achieve anticompetitive outcomes, such as the use of algorithms to collude. In addition, a range of issues will require competition authorities to enhance their advocacy efforts and deepen their co-operation with consumer protection, data protection and other regulators. These include the use of consumer data under the relevant data protection safeguards as a competitive asset when providing products at no cost, or when developing personalised prices.

Co-operation may be needed across borders to ensure that common standards are applied and that information is available to regulators. Bilateral and regional enforcement may also be useful, for example joint decision making between jurisdictions, although it is important that clear rules exist to indicate how enforcement actions are to be addressed if there are bodies with overlapping responsibilities.[38]

In other worse, even if there are reasonable concerns about competition in the “digital economy,” no putative competition problem (i.e., strategic barriers to entry implemented by a dominant incumbent) should be considered the primary constraint on the use of digital services and products to foster growth and productivity in the region (or even to its beneficial use by individuals). Most diagnoses about the state and impact of the digital economy in Latin America identify far more fundamental problems. Digital-markets regulation, therefore, should not be a public-policy priority for Latin America.

Despite this conclusion, some DCR proponents nonetheless point to “lack of competition” as a valid reason to adopt ex-ante regulation. Part B will explore if the evidence on this point.[39]

B. Are Digital Markets Competitive in Latin America?

As Section 2 will explore in greater depth,[40] most DCRs have a broad scope and are designed to cover all “digital markets,” including myriad products and services—from search engines to online marketplaces to operating systems to streaming platforms.[41] If a single body of rules is meant to regulate all “digital markets” due to an alleged lack of competition, all or most markets covered by those rules must show symptoms of a “decline in competition.” If digital markets instead offer evidence that competition is sufficiently vigorous, that should be reason enough to reevaluate the scope of DCRs, if not to abandon them altogether.

There are few comprehensive assessments of the state of competition in Latin American digital markets,[42] but it is possible to find reports and statistics covering such markets as e-commerce, FinTech, and ride-hailing platforms that show consistent growth and entry. Market share and market concentration are, of course, imperfect proxies for competition,[43] but the available evidence does not appear to support the common contention that “Big Tech” companies are “monopolies” in Latin America.

Google is arguably the only company that enjoys a dominant position—in its case, in the search-engine market in Latin America. Not only does it have an extremely large market share in the region—93.27% in 2024[44]—but it has also maintained that position for more than a decade.[45] Microsoft also enjoys extremely high market shares in the operating-system market, especially if the desktop OS market is measured separately from mobile. In the desktop OS market, Microsoft, owner of Windows, is the clear leader, with 88.42% market share,[46] followed distantly by Apple’s OSX, with a 4.56% market share.[47] In the mobile OS market Google’s Android has an 83.43% market share, followed by Apple’s iOS with a 16.33% market share.[48]

This does not mean, however, that these firms can exercise market power without any consequence. In recent years, mobile devices can substitute for desktops for a growing number of use cases.[49] Microsoft, therefore, is not only constrained by its edge competitors in the desktop OS market, but also by what participants in the mobile OS market are doing to enhance the experience of tablet and smartphone users. Google, in turn, faces potential competition in the search-engine market from artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots like ChatGPT and from AI search applications developed by Microsoft, Meta, and other firms.[50] Even if we assume that Google has incontestable monopoly power, regulation would be difficult to implement.[51]

Other “usual suspects” of market dominance, such as Meta or Amazon, have smaller but still important market shares. Meta, the owner of Facebook and Instagram, has a large market share in the social-media space: 71.87%, if Facebook (48.92%) and Instagram (22.95%) are lumped together.[52] Facebook’s market share is, however, declining, and newer platforms like TikTok are gaining users.[53] Indeed, TikTok has had an extraordinary rate of growth, attracting an annual average of 340 million active new users worldwide from 2018 to 2022.[54] The example of TikTok demonstrates how a new competitor with an attractive product can challenge an established incumbent like Meta, despite lacking its network effects, scale, or data advantages.

Conversely, Amazon may be the “big tech” company facing the most competition in Latin America; it is sometimes even the underdog against the regional “unicorn” Mercado Libre or other local platforms. A recent report about online marketplaces across Latin America and the Caribbean found that “(a)s of August 2022, there were 893 B2C or C2C online marketplaces in the LAC region, accounting for 2,876 websites (URLs).”[55] As shown in Table 1, there are more than 20 marketplaces that have averaged a more than 1% share of online traffic from 2019–2021.

TABLE 1: Share of Marketplace Traffic in Latin America, 2019-2021 (%)

SOURCE: Estefanía Lotitto and Bernardo Díaz de Astarloa (2023)

It is important to note that the list only includes marketplaces focused specifically on Latin American and Caribbean countries. The full number of competitors might be even larger, as the list does not take into account online traffic to international marketplaces where Latin American consumers also shop.

Report authors Estefanía Lotitto & Bernardo Díaz de Astarloa acknowledge that there has been significant entry in the e-commerce market, but suggest that Latin American governments should nonetheless “monitor competition patterns in the e-commerce market to avoid dominant positions and mitigate economic risks associated with competition between traditional SMEs who lack the capabilities to operate effectively in digital channels and large, established marketplaces.”[56] The authors do not explain what kind of monitoring these government should be doing, but given that also do not endorse any changes to the legal system, it is fair to assume they do not have DCRs in mind.

According to the OECD, e-commerce in Latin America:

While it remains relatively small (…), it is growing rapidly: revenues reached USD 45.4 billion in 2017 compared to USD 29.8 billion in 2015. While not all e-commerce firms are platforms (e.g., many traditional retailers also sell their products on their own websites), many of the largest players in e-commerce in Latin America are platforms: the main e-commerce retailers in Latin America include MercadoLibre, Amazon, B2W Digital, Alibaba, eBay, CNova, Apple, Walmart, Google Shopping, Buscape.[57]

Given this backdrop of growing demand, it would be extremely difficult for an alleged monopolist to exercise market power, as that demand would not be satisfied by the restriction of output; it would instead likely attract new sellers.[58] In the case of e-commerce (as in most, if not all, digital markets), low barriers to entry facilitate such additional competition.[59]

In the case of Amazon, for instance, there is empirical evidence that it not only competes in Mexico but competes intensively with other distribution channels, and has a net-positive welfare effect on Mexican consumers. A 2022 paper found that “e-commerce and brick-and-mortar retailers in Mexico operate in a single, highly competitive retail market” and that “Amazon’s entry has generated a significant pro-competitive effect by reducing brick-and-mortar retail prices and increasing product selection for Mexican consumers.”[60]

The recent entry of other marketplaces into the region (e.g., Shein) suggests that the e-commerce market is highly competitive. Moreover, there is a substantial margin for expansion, which suggests that demand could grow even more: “For instance, in 2017, 35% of Chileans had purchased online, compared to 27% in Brazil, 13% in Mexico, and 8% in Colombia.”[61]

Recently, Aeropost—a U.S. shipping and logistics company already operating in other Latin American and Caribbean countries—entered to compete in the Peruvian e-commerce market with the inauguration of its own marketplace. The business journal Semana Económica explains that “(t)he company – specialized in importing products from the United States to Latin America – seeks to take advantage of the growth of electronic commerce in the region.”[62] The company‘s CEO highlighted the relatively low penetration of e-commerce in the country: “(w)hen we talk about e-commerce in Latin America, the numbers are still very small compared to total retail. So, it is about opening, about making the pie grow, and not about the percentage of the market you have.”[63]

Regarding the FinTech market, the evidence also suggests a market experiencing consistent growth and entry:

One study identified 703 Fintech start-ups in 16 Latin American countries in 2017 (IDB and Finovista, 2017), of which 33% were in Brazil, 26% in Mexico, 12%, in Colombia, 10% in Argentina and 9% in Chile. A year later, the study identified 1,166 companies in the region, representing a 66% increase from the previous year (IDB and Finovista, 2018). The main business segments in which these Fintech start-ups are active include payments and remittances (24%), lending (18%), enterprise financial management (15%), personal financial management (8%) and crowdfunding (8%) (IDB and Finovista, 2018, p. 15).[64]

INDECOPI’s report on the FinTech sector found that the number of FinTech companies operating in Peru has been growing at an annual rate of 15%, reaching 154 companies in 2022 from 50 in 2014.[65]

FinTech, importantly, is not only competitive, but it is also “boosting competition.” As Bas Bakker et al. explained: “(t)he proliferation of new financial technology and digital banks is associated with a reduction in lending spreads. (…) fintech companies do not just compete with banks and insurance companies; they also provide banks and insurance companies with new technologies and services.”[66] The growth of FinTech services has also improved financial inclusion:

About three-quarters of digital banks’ customers are previously unbanked and underbanked consumers and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). A higher level of fintech adoption is associated with lower income inequality. Alternative finance has boosted access to finance for micro, small, and medium enterprises—sectors that have been underserved by the traditional banking system.[67]

Ride-hailing and food delivery may be the digital markets experiencing the most intense regional competition. According to The Economist, “(i)n 2021 Latin American startups attracted around $16bn in investment, roughly as much as in the previous ten years combined.”[68] Many of those firms are digital platforms that:

Aim to make life more convenient—groceries or takeaway food delivered to your door, for example. The likes of Cornershop, a Chilean app that started in 2015 and was bought by Uber in 2020, and Rappi, a Colombian app, are now used across the region. Both have expanded to do more, including delivering small parcels and running errands.[69]

Apps like Uber, Cabify, and Didi disrupted the traditional private-transport market in Latin America. Using Brazilian municipal data from 2014-2016, Guilherme Mendes Resende and Ricardo Carvalho de Andrade Lima found: “Uber’s entry into the market resulted in an average reduction of 56.8 percent in the number of rides from [the other] cab-hailing apps in the cities where the platform operates.”[70]

While there are some companies with large market shares in these markets, the landscape is highly competitive. As Scott Beyer has noted:

While Uber and Didi do in fact dominate LatAm rideshare, it hasn’t been easy. And in food delivery, they’re actually losing to the region’s homegrown companies. In either case, government regulation (or lack thereof) dictates their trajectory. (…)

Uber and Didi are both expanding in these regions, and see in urbanized Latin America a particularly alluring battleground. (…).

I saw the battle play out in my first stop, Mexico City. Uber dominated Mexico for years, but now has less market share there than Didi. It was easy to see why: each time I needed a ride, I’d find Didi had slightly lower prices.

But once getting further down into LatAm, I found the market got more crowded—namely for food delivery. Three regional apps now beat both Uber and Didi in delivery market share. PedidosYa, based in Uruguay, is dominating Central and far South America. Rappi, a delivery and finance app, wins its home country of Colombia and several surrounding ones. iFood, based in Sao Paulo, is all over Brazil, by far the region’s biggest market. These apps draw global investors and generate lots of buzz.[71]

There is also evidence that Latin American digital economy is not only competitive, but that it has made “traditional” industries more competitive. For example, COFECE’s digital-strategy report recognized that:

So far, the arrival of some technological giants in the Mexican markets has generated competitive pressure for traditional companies. For example, the growing activity of companies such as Google and Facebook in the advertising market may have the effect that important companies established in this market face greater competition and work hard to satisfy the demands of their consumers. Something similar could happen in sectors such as retail sales, finance, mobility and entertainment, whose traditional markets present significant levels of concentration, and which with the arrival of companies such as Amazon, Uber, Cabify, Didi, various Fintech, Apple and Netflix could benefit from the competition process.[72]

Similarly, Esteban Greco and María Fernanda Viecens found that:

Digital players act as disruptive suppliers with respect to traditional players. In various markets it is observed that it is digital developments that exert competitive pressure on the market, and those that provide innovative products and technological alternatives, resulting in the competitive process including both traditional and digital players. So, in such cases, more than digital markets, digital players are observed breaking into traditional markets and exerting competitive pressure on established suppliers.[73]

In summary, there is evidence of market growth and entry in various digital markets across Latin America, suggesting that barriers to entry are low. If that is indeed the case, firms’ attempts to exercise market power would be disciplined by competition. Therefore, a general “lack of competition” in digital markets is a poor rationale to create DCRs in Latin America.

II. Are DCRs Needed Where There Is Sufficient Competition?

DCR proposals rest on the premise that digital markets “dominated by large digital platforms” (so-called “Big Tech” firms) are not and cannot be sufficiently competitive due to certain “characteristics” that make them prone to concentration and monopoly. Thus, even if certain digital markets appear to be competitive, the argument goes, it is inevitable that they will eventually become monopolies, and regulation is needed to prevent that. Giuseppe Colangelo summarizes the argument well:

The distinctive features of digital markets apparently require a rethinking of the antitrust regime. The presence of strong economies of scale, extreme indirect network effects, remarkable economies of scope due to the role of data as a critical input, and conglomerate effects, along with consumers’ behavioural biases and single-homing tendencies, represent significant barriers to entry that make digital markets highly concentrated, prone to tipping, and not easily contestable. Therefore, large incumbent players appear not to be under threat and hard to dislodge. Moreover, digital platforms act as gatekeepers (either by controlling the access of third-party firms to their users or controlling the consumption of products and services by their users) and regulators (due to their rule-setting role within their ecosystem), and frequently play a dual role, being simultaneously operators for the marketplace and sellers of their own products and services in competition with rival sellers.[74]

In addition to the aforementioned “characteristics,” problems in digital markets also allegedly arise from failures inherent to antitrust enforcement:

In light of this, mounting criticism against current competition policy allege that lax antitrust enforcement, flawed judicial rules that reflect unsound economic theories or unsupported empirical claims, and the limited effectiveness of the antitrust toolkit have contributed to a significant increase in concentration in digital markets. Furthermore, antitrust litigation and enforcement are deemed to be too protracted and expensive, causing ambiguity, draining resources, and privileging incumbents. Despite the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division (DOJ) ongoing reviewing of whether and how certain online platforms have achieved market power and are engaging in anticompetitive practices and the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) launching of an ex post evaluation of BigTech acquisitions, there is strong skepticism and criticism surrounding the efficacy of antitrust investigations. Too little, too late.[75]

Proponents argue that DCRs could prevent or rapidly address these problems. Some of the proposed reforms are not actually labeled as “regulations,” but rather as “competition-law reforms.” Most, however, are sector-specific (“digital markets”) and include specific ex-ante rules and duties (with prescribed penalties in the case of breach). Also, their application would not be based on the consumer-welfare effects of the regulated conduct.[76] Therefore, for the purposes of this paper, these initiatives will also be considered ex-ante regulation.[77]

In general, the proposed regulations would introduce prohibitions and restrictions on certain practices, such as so-called “self-preferencing” or the use of third-party data, and special duties, such as “interoperability” and data sharing by digital platforms with “considerable economic power” (or “gatekeepers”).[78] Some also give competition agencies or new regulators the ability to impose specific remedies.[79]

A. Market Failure in Digital Markets

According to economic theory and long-tested economic principles, ex-ante regulation is justified only in the presence of “market failures.”[80] A market failure is “a situation where the private market fails to produce the optimal level of a particular good,”[81] or as former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer put it, “an alleged inability of the marketplace to deal with particular structural problems.”[82] The four market failures most commonly accepted in the economic literature are information problems, externalities, natural monopolies, and public goods.[83]

Of course, other rationales have been put forward in the political debate surrounding DCRs (distributive concerns; “fairness,” as in the case of the DMA; central planning; human rights). Nonetheless, mainstream policy discussion and regulatory best practices have long required evidence that a market is not working properly in order to justify extraordinary interventions.[84] As Thom Lambert points out:

[B]ecause the point of market failure-correcting government interventions is to enhance social welfare, such interventions are not justified if they would themselves create losses greater than those occasioned by the market failures they are aimed at correcting. Wise policy, therefore, requires consideration of the ways in which government interventions may reduce welfare.[85]

Tellingly, the DMA—the “original blueprint”[86] for DCRs—does not mention the term “market failure” or argue that any of the above-mentioned market failures are present in digital markets.[87] Likewise, Brazilian Bill No. 2768 follows suit and fails to explain which market failure would justify the regulation of digital markets in Brazil.

Instead, DCR proposals tend to mention “characteristics” of digital markets that (in some cases) lead to highly concentrated markets and a lack of market contestability that could be labelled as “quasi-market failures.” Those “quasi-market failures” allegedly make entry and surpassing incumbent market leaders difficult, even if they do not actually impede competition. As Colangelo has described it: “strong economies of scale, extreme indirect network effects, remarkable economies of scope due the role of data as a critical input, and conglomerate effects, along with consumers’ behavioural biases and single-homing tendencies.”[88]

The DMA recitals mention, e.g., that:

…core platform services feature a number of characteristics that can be exploited by the undertakings providing them. An example of such characteristics of core platform services is extreme scale economies, which often result from nearly zero marginal costs to add business users or end users. Other such characteristics of core platform services are very strong network effects, an ability to connect many business users with many end users through the multisidedness of these services, a significant degree of dependence of both business users and end users, lock-in effects, a lack of multi-homing for the same purpose by end users, vertical integration, and data driven-advantages. All these characteristics, combined with unfair practices by undertakings providing the core platform services, can have the effect of substantially undermining the contestability of the core platform services, as well as impacting the fairness of the commercial relationship between undertakings providing such services and their business users and end users.[89]

These “characteristics” are not alleged to be market failures, as they do not impede competition or make it undesirable. That is why Justice Breyer’s emphasis on “structural” problems is important.[90] Not every condition that characterizes a market as failing to precisely fit the model of perfect competition is necessarily relevant for the purposes of public policy. The high cost of regulatory interventions demands that we intervene only to address those conditions that have a considerable impact, and only where they would remain in place over the long term in the absence of intervention.

To be sure, it is possible to find some level of informational asymmetry or (positive) externalities in digital markets, but not to such degree that they would fail to be addressed by market competition (actual or potential) or by such general rules as data protection or consumer protection. It is also possible to find digital markets where a firm has some degree of monopoly power. In most digital markets, however, there is little to no evidence of significant market power, nor of a tendency toward “natural monopoly” (that is, a case where it is not possible or desirable to replace the monopolist).[91]

Digital markets do not present a “new type” of market power. As Herbert Hovenkamp has explained:

There is little empirical support for the proposition that digital-platform markets are winner-take-all. Rather, the landscape for digital markets resembles the one for markets generally: some of them are more conducive to single-firm dominance than others. Some resemble markets with a dominant firm plus a competitive fringe. Others enjoy competition among more evenly sized rivals. (…)

For digital platforms, several factors point in different directions, making categorical treatment impossible. On the one hand, network effects can be a substantial entry barrier. Particularly in markets where significant product differentiation is impossible, a large base on one or both sides of a platform, which places newcomers at a significant disadvantage, can be a powerful entry deterrent. The same thing can be said of accumulation of large amounts of consumer data or large intellectual property portfolios. Offsetting these barriers are low consumer-switching costs and widespread multi-homing, which are common in platform markets; these factors, in contrast, encourage new entry. Product differentiation is also an avenue for new entry, as is high technological turnover.[92] (emphasis added).

In 2001, in the second edition of his “Antitrust Law” treatise, Richard Posner explained, in reference to what was then called the “new economy”, that:

Because of the extraordinary rate of innovation not only in computer software but also in communications technology, the extraordinary amount of capital available worldwide for investment in new enterprises, and the rapidity with which new networks that are primarily electronic can be put into service, the networks that have emerged in the new economy do not seem particularly secure against competition. We have seen all manner of firms rise and fall in this industry-falling sometimes from what had seemed a secure monopoly position. The gale of creative destruction that Schumpeter described, in which a sequence of temporary monopolies operates to maximize innovation that confers social benefits far in excess of the social costs of the short-lived monopoly prices that the process also gives rise to, may be the reality of the new economy. This is especially likely because quality competition tends to dominate price competition in the software industry. The quality-adjusted price of software has fallen steadily simply because quality improvements have vastly outrun price increases.[93]

In the same vein, Thom Lambert has analyzed several common indicators of market power and concluded that (at least, in general) we cannot assume that there is a general trend toward monopoly in digital markets. He finds that consumer prices on most platforms do not appear to be rising (in fact, most of their services are offered at zero monetary cost). There is also little evidence that advertising prices are rising.[94] Regarding the quality of digital products and services, Lambert finds that:

GAFA firms are hardly fat monopolists enjoying the quiet life that results from a lack of competition. They are better characterized as relentless innovators that continually improve their offerings for the benefit of consumers.[95]

Jonathan Barnett observes that “while digital markets tend to converge on ‘winner-take-most’ outcomes, that is often not the end of the story.”[96] He offers several examples of market incumbents that have lost their market-leadership position, or that have at the least been forced to confront the menace of innovative entrants:

In the social networking market, Facebook has faced stiff competition since 2019 from TikTok, which by some recent estimates (as of 2022) accounts for 20% of the global social-media networking market (as compared to 46% for Facebook and Instagram). In the office productivity software market, Microsoft’s long-standing leadership has been contested recently by Google’s Workspace applications suite, which by one estimate as of 2022 accounted for almost half of the global market. In the mobile device communications market, initial leaders such as Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson, and Blackberry enjoyed large market shares in the 1990s—in 1999, Nokia and Motorola accounted for 27% and 17% of the global market31—but were rapidly dislodged in the mid-2000s by Apple’s iPhone and Android-based devices produced by Samsung and other firms. In the online shopping market, Amazon has faced robust competition from Walmart and, in apparel, now faces robust competition from Shein and Temu. In the search market, Google has always faced competition in “vertical” search markets from leading providers in those segments, such as Expedia and Booking.com in travel, Zillow and Redfin in real estate, and Yahoo!, Bloomberg and Reuters in finance.[97]

In a book that examined digital platforms through the lens of natural-monopoly theory,[98] Francesco Ducci focused on three case studies of “big” digital platforms, and only in the case of general or horizontal search (Google) did he find features of a natural monopoly.[99] His findings are debatable, but even assuming that they are correct, Ducci also warns that “a real-world regulator for horizontal search is likely to face a number of insurmountable limitations and challenges, especially in technologically fast and fluid industries.”[100]

In the case of e-commerce platforms like Amazon, Ducci concluded that “(d)espite the fact that network externalities give rise to large e-commerce marketplaces and the physical infrastructure of online shopping for logistics and delivery is characterized by some scale economies, neither effect is strong enough to give rise to a natural monopoly.”[101]

Finally, in the case of ride-hailing platforms (like Uber), Ducci concludes that the evidence is ambiguous:

Ride-hailing platforms are not necessarily natural monopolies. Fixed costs of entry are not very high, and the positive effects of network externalities are likely to taper off after a certain critical mass is reached. Especially in larger cities, these factors may leave room for competition between networks, which can create a number of positive effects on prices, fees, and quality of the services. The technological features of ride-hailing platform can, however, increase the chances of natural monopolies compared to the traditional taxi dispatch systems, by pushing the frontier of efficient scale toward larger networks and geographic areas.[102]

It is worth discussing the “network effects” argument in digital markets. If a firm moves fast and gets the first customers, network-effects theory holds that the presence of those customers would, in turn, attract still more customers and sellers, who will attract even more. This growth would result, allegedly, in a single firm monopolizing the market. But as David Evans and Richard Schmalensee point out, that result is far from inevitable:

Systematic research on online platforms by several authors, including one of us, shows considerable churn in leadership for online platforms over periods shorter than a decade. Then there is the collection of dead or withered platforms that dot this sector, including Blackberry and Windows in smartphone operating systems, AOL in messaging, Orkut in social networking, and Yahoo in mass online media.[103]

In the same vein, Christopher Yoo explains that:

Despite attempts by recent reports to equate network effects with market failure, an examination of both the theoretical and empirical literature make clear that the relationship between network effects and market failure is more complex. Indeed, history is littered with once-leading digital companies that can attest to the reality that network effects are not sufficient by themselves to protect the dominance of early-market leaders. Considerations such as variation in the value of connections and the existence of countervailing externalities make the relationship between network effects and market failure ambiguous. In addition, network-effects based theories depend on the satisfaction of structural preconditions that must be shown in individual cases. Even when those preconditions are met, alternative institutional solutions exist that can mitigate or even dissipate the impact of network effects.[104]

Even those open to ex-ante regulations for digital markets acknowledge that there are considerable challenges, especially if the intent is to regulate digital platforms like “essential facilities.” Jean Tirole, for instance, acknowledges that it is possible to regulate a “stable essential facility,” but that the fast-moving nature of digital markets makes it difficult for regulators to identify them, collect the appropriate data, and promulgate and enforce the appropriate rules.[105]

This is probably why the European Commission’s Regulatory Scrutiny Board—an independent body within the Commission that advises commissioners and evaluates the impact of proposed regulations—has, according to one report, “expressed concern about the lack of evidence supporting the DMA’s underlying assumptions concerning the purported negative effects of certain platform practices.”[106]

It is also important to consider that most proposed DCRs are designed as a single body of rules that would cover all “digital markets,” as if such markets were homogeneous. But as the International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) explained at a 2022 meeting of the OECD’s Competition Committee:

The digital economy spans from online retail to real estate listings to concert tickets to travel booking to social media. Consequently, there is not a universally defined digital market. While digital markets are dynamic and evolving, as many markets are, digital market innovations in some segments are not as groundbreaking as they once were. In a similar manner, prominent digital market characteristics are not unique to digital markets. Print newspapers are multi-sided markets. Broadcast radio is zero-price.[107] (emphasis added)

Those differences are important enough to believe that the broad regulation of “digital markets” is misguided. As Herbert Hovenkamp has explained:

… broad regulation is ill-suited for digital platforms because they are so disparate…. They sell different products, albeit with some overlap, and only some of these products are digital. They deal with customers and diverse sets of third parties in different ways. What they have in common is that they are very large and that a sizeable portion of their operating technology is digital.[108] (emphasis added)

Platforms like Google Search, Amazon’s marketplace, Uber, and Spotify are so different from one another that it is highly unlikely that any single body of regulation could be both necessary and reasonable for all of those markets. Some of these markets have market leaders with a significant market share and few competitors; some are more fragmented and have more competitors with evenly distributed market shares. Some of them have strong “network effects” (payment systems), and some have milder “network effects” (streaming of video and audio). Some rely on extremely specific user data in order to deliver a valuable service, while others can work with more general data.

These idiosyncrasies mean that some rules will be useless in some markets, but will be enforced nonetheless, and generate compliance costs that could be passed on to consumers. Think of, e.g., data-sharing mandates that require the compulsory transfer of information to other platforms or “business users,” even if it is not useful to them. In other cases, the rules will not be useless, because they will affect the market where they are applied (i.e., they will benefit some business users and some consumers), but could have unintended consequences (i.e., harm to consumers in general). As Lazar Radic has pointed out:

There are a range of risks and possible unintended consequences associated with the DMA, such as the privacy dangers of sideloading and interoperability mandates; worsening product quality as a result of blanket bans on self-preferencing; decreased innovation; obstruction of the rule of law; and double and even triple jeopardy because of the overlaps between the DMA and EU competition rules.[109]

It is also important to consider that, even if they were warranted, DCRs create barriers to entry, regulatory risks, and restrictions on the monetization of business assets—all of which could make the affected markets less attractive, and thereby deter market entry. There is already anecdotal evidence that the DMA is having such consequences. As Alba Ribera has explained:

One of the greatest examples of the dichotomy that arises between the different types of consequences that can be generated by the regulatory capture of digital ecosystems can be found in Meta’s recent decision not to launch its new service Threads in the European Economic Space. To the extent that its service could be interpreted as falling within the definition of a “core platform service” belonging to the category of “online social networks” (listed by the DMA), Meta decided to refrain from entering the European market, due to the disproportionate burden that the demanding obligations imposed by the DMA would entail. It should be noted that Threads is still an entrant service in the online social networking market, in contrast to the predominant position occupied by X (previously known as Twitter). In this way, we observe that the categorization as a core platform service unifies and eliminates all the nuances that free competition entails with respect to incoming services in the markets.[110]

It also should be noted that DCRs would likely have a greater impact in developing economies where digital markets are not yet mature. More developed economies might, indeed, be able to afford any inefficiencies that stem from DCRs.[111]

For instance, regulations could make online goods and services more expensive. Facebook is already experimenting with a new business model in which consumers would see no advertising (and thus, there would be no data collection—or less data collection for marketing purposes, at least) but would instead have to pay to subscribe.[112] If this model were to become generalized, it may be good for some users. Privacy-minded American and European consumers would probably be able to afford such subscriptions. But the same could hardly be said for Latin American consumers—who, on average, earn less than a third the income of their European counterparts.[113]

From the perspective of the companies that own and operate digital platforms and services, if DMA-like regulations make emerging markets less profitable, the companies could simply leave or choose not to enter such markets. As Geoffrey Manne and Dirk Auer have explained, “to regulate competition, you first need to attract competition.”[114]

While empirical research on the impact of DCRs is scarce, a recent paper by Ke Rong, D. Daniel Sokol, Di Zhou, & Feng Zhu[115] analyzing the impact of China’s “Anti-Monopoly Guidelines for the Platform Economy”[116] finds that:

This regulation has made the investment climate less attractive for startups, evidenced by a 26.73% decrease in the monthly number of investments and an 18.72% drop in newly established companies in affected industries. Contrary to expectations, the Platform Guidelines have not fostered greater competition.[117]

The recently published “The Future of European Competitiveness” report[118] (commonly known as the “Draghi Report”) underscores the impact that regulation can have on competitiveness, growth, and innovation. While the report appears to endorse the DMA, it does acknowledge that regulations like the GDPR have had a negative impact, and cautions against the administrative burden that the DMA could impose:

…while the ambitions of the EU’s GDPR and AI Act are commendable, their complexity and risk of overlaps and inconsistencies can undermine developments in the field of AI by EU industry actors. (…) This calls for developing simplified rules and enforcing harmonised implementation of the GDPR in the Member States, while removing regulatory overlaps with the AI Act (…). This would ensure that EU companies are not penalised in the development and adoption of frontier AI. With the DMA and DSA, the EU has also adopted pioneering legislation to ensure that digital competition and fair online market practices are enforced. This aims to protect smaller innovators and players from the dominance of Very Large Online Platforms, and to safeguard citizens, creators and IP holders from lack of accountability by the responsible platforms. While it is early to fully gauge the impact of these landmarks regulations, their implementation must avoid producing administrative and compliance burdens and legal uncertainties as the GDPR’s and must be enforced within shorter timeframes and more stringent processes for compliance provisions.[119]

Precisely because there is a significant growth and productivity gap between Latin America and other developed countries—greater even than that between Europe and the United States—Latin America cannot afford to implement regulations that could hinder its competitiveness. The Draghi Report points out that:

EU economic growth has been persistently slower than in the US over the past two decades, while China has been rapidly catching up. The EU-US gap in the level of GDP at 2015 prices has gradually widened from slightly more than 15% in 2002 to 30% in 2023, while on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis a gap of 12% has emerged.[120]

But Latin American countries’ GDP gap with the United States is even larger and, in some cases, growing (see Figure 1). The primary culprit behind this gap is productivity, which is only about half that of the United States.[121]

In sum, there are several reasons to believe that no solid rationale exists to regulate Latin American digital markets: not any of them specifically, and not in general. Moreover, there are good reasons to believe that such regulations would do more harm than good for competition and consumers.

FIGURE 1: Per-Capita GDP, US and Select Latin American Countries, 1960-2023 (Constant 2015 US$)

SOURCE: World Bank, OECD[122]

B. Costs and Benefits of Regulation Versus Antitrust

Those reports that do recommend adoption of DCRs often highlight the alleged shortcomings of traditional antitrust law—i.e., that it is “too slow” or “too hard to win” for plaintiffs—as the primary justification to pursue ex-ante regulation. As Giuseppe Colangelo has explained:

… the regulatory approaches recently advanced do not seem to reflect the distinctive features of digital markets, but rather the need to design enforcement short-cuts to cope with growing concerns that antitrust law is unable to address potential anticompetitive practices by large online platforms. Hence, in most of the mentioned reports, the revival of regulation seems supported more by an alleged antitrust enforcement failure rather than true a market failure. The goal is indeed to fill alleged enforcement gaps in the current antitrust rules by introducing tools aimed at lowering legal standards and evidentiary burdens in order to address anti-competitive practices that standard antitrust analysis would struggle to tackle.[123]

This may be a reasonable cause for regulation (although an “institutional failure,” rather than a market failure). Few would disagree that antitrust cases should be faster. Competition agencies and courts, generally speaking, should have more resources and more expeditious procedures to adjudicate cases before market structures and dynamics change and render any potential remedy useless.[124] But the fact that cases are “hard to win” is not a valid reason. Indeed, this is arguably a feature, and not a bug, of antitrust law, especially in the context of “abuse of dominance” or “monopolization” cases.[125]

In replacing standard antitrust-law concepts like “relevant markets,” “monopoly power,” “dominant position,” and “consumer harm” with concepts like “core platforms services” and “gatekeepers,” DCRs provide procedural shortcuts to condemn some business models and practices. While these shortcuts may reduce administrative costs, these putative benefits are easily overstated. Only a few weeks after the DMA entered into force, and only a week after compliance workshops held with the newly designated “gatekeepers”, the European Commission announced that it was initiating noncompliance proceedings against three companies because their compliance proposals fell “short of effective compliance” with the new DMA rules.[126] If gatekeepers decide to appeal the seemingly inevitable noncompliance decisions, these proceedings could take months or even years of litigation before they are resolved.

Perhaps more importantly, these procedural shortcuts have a cost: they amount to the per-se prohibition of business models and practices that usually provide benefits for consumers, such as lower prices and a safer user experience. These costs are compounded by the fact that, as mentioned,[127] the language of DCRs is often overly broad. As Lazar Radic, Geoffrey Manne, and Dirk Auer have explained:

… digital markets tend to be very different from those traditionally subject to price regulation and access regimes. And even in those industries, price regulation and access regimes raise many difficulties, such as identifying appropriate price/cost ratios and fleshing out the nonprice aspects of the goods/services or regulated firms.

Those difficulties are compounded in the fast-moving digital space, where innovation cycles are faster, and where yesterday’s prices and nonprice factors may no longer be relevant today.[128]

To pick one such obligation, the application of “common-carrier” laws to digital platforms would not have a positive impact for consumers, in that “by questioning the core of digital platform business models and affecting their governance design, these interventions entrust public authorities with mammoth tasks that could ultimately jeopardize the profitability of app-store ecosystems.”[129] Apple’s App Store is one such example. As Randal Picker explained:

Would Apple have an obligation to carry—here meaning pre-install—any app requesting that? I hope that merely to state the idea is to make clear why that would be an outcome that would be physically impossible and would create a terrible consumer experience. No blocking of apps found to contain malware, no limits on pornography, no limits on apps that help that help people violate the law or evade law enforcement. Part of what consumers want from app stores (or presumably any store, online or offline) is some assurance of quality and filtering for safety and other important social values. And all of the problems that consumers experience in searching through the app stores would come directly to their devices. So don’t pre-install apps, but pre-install links, say an incredibly long browser ballot for all apps on your device. Again, self-refuting I hope.[130] (emphasis added).

The ban on “self-preferencing” would also have adverse effects for consumers. As Thom Lambert noted in a piece critical of the proposed American Innovation and Choice Online Act (AICOA) in the United States,[131] the pre-installation of services like the iPhone’s Siri involves “self-preferencing” or discrimination among business users of Apple’s iOS platform. But consumers value having a device that is ready to be used. Consumers also like the fact that Google’s search results for a restaurant or a museum offer directions to the place, which implicates the self-preferencing of Google Maps.[132],[133]

DCRs’ rigidity comes, at least partially, from the fact that regulators act with limited information (because they design the rules to be applied to an activity before that activity takes place). In the case of antitrust laws, agencies and courts apply the law to activities whose effects can be assessed, if imperfectly. In that sense, antitrust laws are more precise than DCRs, which rest on presumptions that certain categories of conduct are generally harmful:

… in real economies with positive transactions and information costs, the performance of the two systems will differ. Because ex-post liability systems evaluate the activities of firms later in time after information on the effects of an activity has been revealed, the information advantage favors the use of ex-post liability systems when there is heterogeneity that is known to the regulated firms (but not the regulator) ex-ante.[134] (emphasis added)

Moreover, antitrust laws are more flexible than ex-ante regulation and more likely to be appropriate for a broader range of markets and business models.[135] As Richard Posner illustrates, while per-se rules are generally simpler and cheaper to enforce, they tend to be either underinclusive or overinclusive. When the application of such rules is determined by facts like a platform’s size or numbers of users, which are disconnected from its goals, they are “especially apt to fail.”[136]

As Geoffrey Manne has pointed out, the “common-law approach” of antitrust can be a form of error cost avoidance, leading to less Type I errors than is the case with regulation.[137] Since the “specification of detailed, ex-ante rules will ensure costly, erroneous outcomes where conduct is not clearly harmful, our understanding of its effects is indeterminate, or technological change alters either the effects of certain conduct or our understanding of it.”[138] Moreover, a case-by-case approach “is readily amenable to Bayesian updating, and as more information is gleaned (both through experience and the development of economic science), the common law approach incorporates it into the analysis.”[139]

It is important to note here that most of the practices banned by the DMA and similar regulations (and proposals) around the world are vertical restraints (contracts or other type of restraints between economic agents at different levels of the production chain), that therefore warrant a “rule-of-reason” analysis. As Jonathan Barnett explains:

The predominance of the rule of reason concerning these practices rests on a solid evidentiary foundation. Scholarship by economists and legal academics has shown that vertical restraints typically fall into the category of difficult-to-diagnose, lower to moderate-risk practices identified by Judge Taft in 1898. The most comprehensive and widely-cited review of the literature finds that, while there  is variation in theoretical models of the competitive effects of tying practices, “the empirical evidence concerning the effects of vertical restraints on consumer well-being is surprisingly consistent … when manufacturers choose to impose such restraints, not only do they make themselves better off but they also typically allow consumers to benefit from higher quality products and better service provision.” Given the complexity involved in diagnosing the competitive effects of vertical restraints, coupled with a body of evidence indicating that these practices typically benefit consumers in real-world markets, the courts’ and agencies’ fact-intensive, case-specific approach is a prudent course of action.[140] (citations omitted, italics in the original)

Even the 2019 “Cremer Report,”[141] which concluded that there are aspects of digital markets where “regulation might be appropriate,” acknowledged the relative superiority of antitrust laws to deal with any possible competition problem in digital markets:

Competition law can and should, for the foreseeable future, continue to accompany and guide the evolution of the platform economy. Its case law method is particularly well suited for the current state of evolution of the platform economy: a still experimental stage, where the efficiencies of different forms of organisation are not yet well understood and our knowledge and understanding still needs to evolve step by step.[142]

In Europe and the United States, the myriad cases initiated indicate that the “antitrust toolkit” is sufficient to address possible competition concerns in digital markets. As Giuseppe Colangelo explains,[143] the obligations introduced by the DMA appear to be based on past and current antitrust investigations. For example, the DMA prohibition on combining personal data across platforms appears to have been inspired by the Bundeskartellamt case against Facebook;[144] the prohibition on most-favored nation (MFN) clauses resembles the e-book case against Amazon.[145] The aforementioned rule on self-preferencing appears to have been inspired by the Google Shopping case.[146] Radic, Manne, and Auer also note that:

… the DMA covers conduct identical to that which the Commission has pursued under EU competition law. For instance, Google Shopping was a self-preferencing case that would fall under Article 6(5) of the DMA.130 Cases AT.40462 and AT.40703, which related to Amazon’s use of nonpublic trader data when competing on the Amazon Marketplace and its supposed bias when awarding the “Buy Box,” would now be caught by Articles 6(2) and 6(5) of the DMA.131 Apple’s anti-steering provisions—for which the Commission issued a fine mere days before the DMA’s entry into force—would be prohibited by Article 5(4) of the DMA.[147]

The fact that these cases have not been summarily dismissed, and that some cases have been adjudicated in the European Commission’s favor, tells us that the substantive rules and evidentiary burden of EU antitrust laws can be applied to digital markets. Therefore, it would be wise for Latin America to, at the least, wait for the outcome of the pending antitrust cases in Europe and the United States before rushing to adopt DCRs covering similar conduct. That would grant time to observe and analyze the results of the DMA’s “natural experiment” before opting to regulate digital markets.[148]

Another relative advantage of antitrust is that the risk is low that it would encourage “rent seeking.” Indeed, in a paper assessing the relative benefits and costs (and possible complementarity) of antitrust and regulation in network industries, Dennis Carlton and Randall Picker conclude that antitrust laws are less susceptible to “regulatory capture” because regulation to affect special interests more directly.[149] Jean Tirole also underscores that regulation creates concerns about regulatory capture.[150]

From the perspective of the rule of law, it is also important to point out that DCRs tend to grant enforcers a great degree of discretion, which in turn fosters incentives for arbitrariness and abuse. This, of course, depends on how a specific piece of regulation is drafted and implemented. Policymakers should be cautious about following the DMA template. As Pablo Ibañez Colomo points out, “the Commission is not subject to the boundaries defined over the years in the case law. [The DMA] expands the leeway through very choice of goals and benchmarks, which are inherently broad and vague.”[151] The European regulation does not contemplate clear and specific requirements that trigger its application, but rather:

… identifies a number of factors that the Commission is entitled to consider in its analysis, such as the size of the undertaking, the features of the activity (for instance, whether there are network effects or data-driven advantages and whether there is customer lock-in). However, nowhere does Article 3(8) provide that all factors be present, or that they be weighed against one another. It is explicit about the fact that it may take into account ‘some or all’ of them.[152]

To summarize, despite the alleged “technical challenges” that digital markets present to the methodology and procedures of antitrust, it remains much better suited to address any possible competition issues than regulation. As Richard Posner concluded more than 20 years ago, “antitrust doctrine is sufficiently supple, and sufficiently informed by economic theory, to cope effectively with the distinctive-seeming antitrust problems that the new economy presents.”[153]

C. Is Latin American Competition Law up to the Task?

The reality of antitrust enforcement in Latin America suggests an even more cautious approach. While the legal toolkit available to Latin American competition agencies is more or less the same as it is in Europe and the United States (that is, without approving DCRs or specific provisions for digital markets within competition law), such agencies’ experience and budgets is significantly more modest.

According to a 2019 OECD report, “competition authorities in Latin America and the Caribbean have dealt with very few enforcement cases involving digital platforms to date.”[154] A more recent report from Juan David Gutiérrez and Manuel Abarca confirms that finding:

Only Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay have conducted and finalised antitrust investigations in cases that involve digital markets. In other words, between 2015 and 2022, only 22 per cent of LAC’s jurisdictions studied in this research (five out of 23) adopted definitive decisions in antitrust cases in digital markets.[155]

Andrés Fuchs and Nader Mufdi similarly note that Latin American agencies have scant experience with antitrust enforcement in digital markets:

… the list of cases included in a recent report published by the Free Competition Program of the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile illustrates in a good way the differences that exist in number and content among cases that have taken place in Europe and the United States, and the LAC region as a whole. Certainly, beyond a couple of procedures carried out by the Conselho Administrativo de Defesa Econômica (CADE) against Google, in Latin America it has not been possible to find a case that challenges the large platforms that capture the attention of the authorities of the United States and Europe.

In short, if observed as a whole, the Latin American reality is still far from the major cases that draw the attention of the institutions, media and academia of the countries that have traditionally taken the lead in competition law. Although it is possible to observe the existence of a relevant number of cases that would include some digital component, the truth is that, both in quantity and relevance, the cases that we observe in Latin America differ considerably from the legal battles that today take place in the developed world. Certainly, the differences that persist in the cases of Latin America compared to those that have taken place in Europe and the United States are consistent with the lag experienced by digital markets in this part of the world compared to the economies in which, at date, its proliferation has been more significant.[156]

Of course, the relative scarcity of antitrust enforcement in digital markets is not necessarily negative; fewer cases initiated does not necessarily mean there has been underenforcement. It could very well be that there is not enough merit to initiate more antitrust cases in digital markets (i.e., that harmful behavior is being deterred or precluded by competition on the market), or that Latin American authorities can simply stand back and reap the benefits of enforcement initiatives elsewhere.

As Fuchs and Mufdi note, the differences in enforcement could be explained by the “lag” in these markets. Latin America does not have (perhaps apart from Mercado Libre, the Colombian delivery app Rappi, and some important actors in the digital-payments sector) many notable digital platforms that could plausibly initiate antitrust conflicts with “Big Tech” companies. It also does not have many major “complementors” to such companies (such as Yelp or Spotify) that could compete with them in their “niche” markets.

Another hypothesis is that Latin American agencies are using their (relatively scarce) resources efficiently and prioritizing the prosecution of cases in markets where the payoff could be better. Agencies already constrained by limited resources should prioritize that conduct that most harms consumers (such as cartels) and markets that could be “growth multipliers” like transportation and logistics. As the World Bank has emphasized:[157]

While there are many ways to promote competition, tackling cartels can yield immediate and tangible benefits, especially for poor households, with little risks of unintended consequences for the business environment. Worldwide, much of the recent policy dialogue on competition issues has focused on information technology, especially social networks and online commerce platforms, as well as the broader rise of global corporate market power. Policies designed to address the potential anticompetitive impacts of these developments are complex and risk undermining the business environment by weakening incentives for firms to innovate and grow. By contrast, cartels can be identified and eliminated, or prevented from forming, through relatively simple, well-established policies and enforcement mechanisms.

Despite the relatively small number of cases brought by competition agencies in Latin America, there are a few cases that allow us to conclude that, as in the EU, antitrust law can be used to address types of conduct covered by DCRs.

In Argentina, for instance, the National Commission for the Defense of Competition (CNDC, after its Spanish acronym) launched an investigation and issued interim measures ordering WhatsApp Inc. not to update its terms and conditions in ways that would allow sharing data collected through that platform with the other integrated platforms similarly owned by Meta—notably, Facebook and Instagram.[158] According to the decision, which applies “standard” Argentinian competition law, such conduct is an “unreasonable collection of data” that would be an “exploitative abuse of a dominant position” by Meta. The decision is not only similar to the Bundeskartellamt decision against Meta’s Facebook mentioned in Section 2B, but it also cites that decision. It is also similar to the data-sharing prohibition contained in Article 5.2(c) of the DMA.

The Brazilian Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE, after its Portuguese acronym) has been the most active agency in the region.[159] It initiated cases regarding the MFN clauses applied by online travel agencies (OTA) like Expedia do Brasil, Decolar.com and Booking.com.[160] This move resembled similar cases initiated in the European Union, and the prohibition of MFN clauses contained in Article 5.3 of the DMA. Brazil has also seen a “self-preferencing” case in which the e-commerce media group Informacao e Tecnologia Ltda. (owner of the price-comparison websites Buscapé and Bondfaro) alleged that Google was abusing its dominant position by favoring its own process-comparison service with a privileged position in search results.[161] Again, this was another case that resembled both a prior European competition-law case and a prohibition contained in the DMA and most DCRs.

While both cases were dismissed in the end, they were not dismissed on grounds that the facts in the case were outside the scope of competition law, or because it was exceedingly difficult to analyze those. They were dropped because the parties reached a settlement in the first case and because CADE determined that there were efficient alternatives to Google’s products and data in the second.[162] As mentioned, nothing in the substance or the procedural aspects of Latin American competition law should lead anyone to conclude that antitrust law cannot be used to address any potentially anticompetitive conduct by digital platforms.

Another important consideration when analyzing proposed DCRs in Latin America is the institutional constraints that Latin American competition agencies already face. In those jurisdictions that have approved DCRs, it has been necessary to create new offices or hire significantly more personnel to enforce these additional rules.[163] Agencies in Latin America already face significant budgetary and human-capital constraints to discharge their existing duties. As explained by a recent World Bank report:

LAC competition agencies are understaffed and underfunded compared to peers from other regions (figure 2.11). The average competition budget is lower in LAC than the OECD and significantly affected by a few larger jurisdictions in LAC with a particularly high competition budget.51 While budgets alone do not provide a flawless gauge of the region’s antitrust activity and agencies’ ideal size in staffing and budget is justifiably tied to the size of the local industry, these budget and staffing data offer insights into agencies’ capacity and positioning within governmental policy priorities.[164]

For example, INDECOPI, the Peruvian competition agency, has just 46 staff dedicated to enforcing antitrust laws (including merger control, market studies, and anticompetitive conduct). This amounts to only 1.4 staff per million inhabitants, significantly smaller than the OECD average of nine staff per million. The Latin American average is four staff per million inhabitants, which is more than Peru but still less than half the OECD average.[165]

Beyond the institutional constraints, Latin American competition agencies should probably focus on more humble priorities than “tame huge global digital platforms.” A recent World Bank report posits that competition may be the missing ingredient for growth in the region. It finds that competition is less vigorous in Latin American markets than in peer nations in other regions, with fewer ex-officio investigations, less use of leniency programs, and fewer dawn raids. This suggests that many cartels remain undetected.[166]

It would be wise to ensure that Latin American competition agencies have sufficient budgets and human capital to fulfill their existing mission before even considering assigning them new tasks.

III. Reforms to Address the Real Bottlenecks in Latin American Digital Markets

While digital markets in Latin America appear to be “reasonably competitive,” as noted in Section 1B, the region does not need to be complacent on this front. In line with the shortcomings and barriers identified in Section IA, much needs to be done to increase the positive impact that digital economies could have on the region’s welfare, productivity, and growth.

A 2019 OECD report about the digital transformation of Latin America lists a number of key policy areas that the countries in the region should consider:

…in order to create and maintain a healthy digital environment that promotes diversity and helps seize the benefits of the digital transformation, including productivity growth. These include: enhancing access to broadband networks to reduce digital divides, strengthening the diffusion of digital technologies, fostering healthy business dynamism and efficient resource reallocation to enable the growth of digitally intensive firms and SMEs, supporting the development of skills and finally, creating new opportunities for trade.[167] (emphasis in the original)

Among these potential reforms, the most urgent—especially considering the implementation time it would require—is to reform telecommunications regulation in order to promote more investment in infrastructure and universal access. While the number of people in Latin America with mobile-internet access has nearly doubled in recent years, significant gaps in coverage and usage remain. According to GSMA Intelligence:

Some 190 million people across the region (of the 230 million unconnected), in both urban and rural areas, live in locations with mobile internet network coverage but do not access the internet. Despite a continued decline in service prices, this usage gap remains due to a lack of affordability. Low income levels in some population segments are an important factor, but regressive, short-termist tax policies also artificially raise the price of internet connectivity for low-income populations.[168]

The World Bank Latin American Economic Outlook 2020 report also underscored that:

Access to broadband and connection quality remain uneven among and within LAC countries. There are several initiatives to improve connectivity, primarily in broadband, along with specific initiatives to facilitate infrastructure deployment by easing the rights of way.[169]

The report mentions that “regulatory frameworks must promote competition and investment arising from the increasing convergence of networks and services in the digital economy.”[170] But it also emphasizes that “a stable and predictable regulatory framework fosters long?term investment in communication infrastructure and digital innovation”[171] and that:

In a sector where return on investment is often measured in decades, guaranteeing regulatory stability, transparency and legal certainty helps firms prepare business plans and ultimately facilitates investment.[172]

The report also detailed several strategies to expand internet access and use for disadvantaged populations, both on the demand and supply side, which could be replicated in other countries:

On the demand side, Latin Americans have difficulty accessing the Internet, mostly owing to the cost of ICT devices and provider fees. Income inequality exacerbates affordability barriers, as low?income households tend to have a much lower income than the average (OECD/IDB, 2016). On the supply side, among other barriers, limited telecommunications infrastructure, tax burdens, inefficiencies in service provision, price distortions due to lack of competition and adequate regulation limit the reach of ICT services for a significant share of the population (West, 2015).

Supply?side initiatives that have increased Internet affordability include enhanced competition, effective broadband expansion strategies, efficient spectrum allocation and infrastructure?sharing models (A4AI, 2019). Peru’s Internet para Todos (Internet for all) aims to bring 4G mobile Internet access to 6 million people in more than 30 000 rural areas by the end of 2021. This partnership between Telefónica, Facebook, IDB (Inter?American Development Bank) Invest and CAF – Development Bank of Latin America – enables operators to use communication infrastructure to expand coverage in rural areas. Telefónica has 3 130 towers across Peru; Internet para Todos aims to install an additional 866 by 2021. This programme also constitutes a growth opportunity for Telefónica by offering the possibility to test new business models and technologies in new locations and potentially expand the customer base in new markets (MAEUEC, 2020). The long?term goal is to replicate the approach in other LAC countries, where some 100 million still have no Internet access (IDB, 2020).[173]

Another potential barrier to digital markets in Latin America (which often need the support of online-payment solutions) is financial inclusion:

Data from the World Bank shows that 55.1% of the Latin America and Caribbean population over 15 had an account with a financial institution or a mobile-money service provider in 2017. The distribution of account ownership however varies across countries ranging from 30% to over 70% in some countries (see Figure 3 below). In addition to a bank account, having a credit and/or a debit card are also important means to make purchases online. These means of payment remain relatively limited in Latin American and Caribbean countries, suggesting an important link between Fintech market development and access to e-commerce.[174]

Lotitto and Diaz also highlight this shortcoming:

A consistent feature of the marketplace landscape in the LAC region is the prevalence of websites that do not allow users to finalize transactions digitally. Most likely, this reflects gaps in the development and adoption of electronic payments solutions and integration of marketplaces with logistics solutions. These two dimensions are key to fully develop e-commerce ecosystems.[175]

Even more fundamental than improved physical infrastructure are the region’s deficiencies in basic “legal infrastructure” for entrepreneurship (property rights, contract enforcement, a proper rule of law). In his “The Mystery of Capital,” Hernando de Soto contemplated why only the United States has produced a Bill Gates, writing:

Apart from his personal genius, how much of his success is due to his cultural background and his “Protestant ethic”? And how much is due to the legal property system of the United States?

How many software innovations could he have made without patents to protect them? How many deals and long-term projects could he have carried without enforceable contracts? How many risks could he have taken at the beginning without limited liability systems and insurance policies?[176]

If Latin America wants entrepreneurs and creators like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Sergey Brin, Larry Page, or Mark Zuckerberg, the region’s governments must start with the essential reforms needed to establish a proper rule of law. The countries of Latin America should reform their judiciary and administrative procedures to protect property rights and enforce contracts effectively. They should create a friendly business environment, with less burdens and red tape, and better public services. Currently, the region is far from that standard. Chile is the best-positioned Latin American country in the World Bank’s “Ease of Doing Business” survey, ranking in 59th place.[177]

According to the OECD’s 2023 economic survey for Peru:

… weakness of the rule of law reduces the attractiveness of Peru’s business environment. A strong rule of law is supposed to not only protect private parties from arbitrary action and infringement of property rights by the state, but also to ensure a level playing field for economic interactions between private parties. It provides for security of property rights and contract enforcement (…), necessary incentives for private sector investment and innovation. However, in Peru, high corruption and unpredictable and inefficient judicial system result in weak de facto property rights, as perceived by the business community (…). The poor efficiency of the legal framework in settling disputes (…) limits businesses’ willingness to bear the risk of, for example, contracting with unknown business partners, or hiring formal workers given high legal uncertainty about the interpretation of strict employment protection regulations.[178]

Education and intellectual property also play important roles. Another OECD report focused on public policies to foster digital transformation noted that it is crucial to “(s)trengthen the diffusion of digital technologies and related practices and business models across the economy (…) fostering investment in tangible (machinery and equipment) and in intangible capital, notably in complementary assets such as skills, organizational changes, process innovation, intellectual property, R&D, new systems and new business models,”[179] as well as to “(s)upport the development of skills that people will need to succeed in the digital world of work, notably sound cognitive skills, ICT skills, specialist skills and the ability to cope with change and keep learning.”[180]

The OECD’s “Shaping the Digital Transformation” report suggested that “(p)olicies to promote ICT investment and the diffusion of digital toots should pay particular attention to the challenges faced by SMEs to adopt and benefit from ICTs”[181] and that “(t)o help SMEs overcome barriers to effective use of advanced digital tools, governments need to enhance support and better target policies to SMEs.” [182] Examples of such approaches include schemes to facilitate the adoption of tools that may be new to SMEs, like cloud computing; promoting better use of intellectual property and other intangibles (for instance, reducing the cost to register a brand); creating exemptions from certain rules for SMEs in order to facilitate regulatory compliance; and implementing programs to raise awareness of and create opportunities for linkages between SMEs and larger firms.[183]

Regarding education, the same report proposed:

Skills-enhancing programmes for youth that combine classroom teaching, workplace learning and job search services help young Latin Americans transition to employment. Training interventions for youth in the region, such as Jóvenes con más y mejor trabajo in Argentina, ProJovem in Brazil, Plan Nacional de Lenguas Digitales in Chile, Jóvenes en Acción in Colombia, Puntos Mexico Conectado in Mexico and ProJoven in Peru, prove that comprehensive interventions have positive results on youth employability, earnings and especially job quality (ILO, 2016a). Public spending in training programmes in LAC ranges from 0.02% of GDP in Peru to more than 0.30% in Colombia and Costa Rica, compared to an OECD average of 0.14%. At secondary and tertiary levels, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico and Peru are making significant advances in coverage, quality and adequacy of the programmes to meet the needs of the private sector.

Training programmes that respond to the needs of the marketplace, thanks to private sector participation in their design and implementation, facilitate youth’s transition into quality jobs and better earnings. Impact evaluations of the early experiences of these programmes in LAC show that coordinating course content with the private sector as well as providing participants with a stipend, are central for programmes to work well. Although foundational skills are important, individuals should be trained to participate in knowledge-based and skills-based economies. General education and TVET should expand their links with the region’s productive sector to underpin on-the-job-training systems, which should be a cornerstone of education and training across the life cycle.[184]

Upgrading human capital is paramount to maximizing technology’s benefits for productivity. But in addition to fostering specific skills, what is needed more generally is:

…improving Latin American youth’s skills involves strengthening the coverage and quality of the education system and promoting lifelong comprehensive skills-enhancing policies. Broader reforms of the education system are expected to increase access to, and quality and pertinences of, primary, secondary and tertiary education.[185]

IV. Conclusion

The case for ex-ante regulation of digital markets is weak, even in mature digital markets like the United States and Europe. It is weaker still in regions like Latin America, which do not present a general “lack of competition” problem or market failures in such markets. Some digital markets even show vibrant competition, as in the case of e-commerce, FinTech, ride-hailing, and food delivery.

Latin America has more pressing problems to address. Before even thinking of regulating digital markets, the region’s policymakers should be thinking about ways to attract companies operating in digital markets to invest in the region[186] and should facilitate the creation of new ones. For that, legal reform is indeed needed. But not to the antitrust laws, and certainly not to implement DCRs. The focus should instead be on policies like implementing proper “rule-of-law” mechanisms, removing regulatory barriers, improving access to infrastructure, increasing the use of telecommunications networks, and fostering better access to education (both in general and specifically regarding the proper skills to use digital products and services).

Rather than inviting a “Regulatory Reconquista” from Europe in the form of DMA-like regulation, Latin America should follow its own path. Before any new regulation is to be approved, Latin American policymakers should follow their own analysis and rationale. At the very least, Latin America should take a cautious “wait and see” approach to the DMA’s implementation in the EU, and the adjudication of major pending antitrust cases against digital platforms in both Europe and the United States.

[1] Jan Kleinheisterkamp, Latin America, Influence of European Private Law, in The Max Planck Encyclopedia of European Private Law (Jürgen Basedow et al., eds., 2012), at 1032.

[2] See Arturo J. Carrillo & Matías Jackson, Follow the Leader? A Comparative Law Study of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation’s Impact in Latin America, 16 Vienna J. Int’l Const. L. 177 (2022).

[3] See, e.g., Jian Jia, Ginger Zhe Jin, & Liad Wagman, The Short-Run Effects of GDPR on Technology Venture Investment (Nat’l Bureau of Econ. Research Working Paper No. 25248, 2019), https://ssrn.com/abstract=3278912; Garrett Johnson, Economic Research on Privacy Regulation: Lessons From the GDPR and Beyond, in The Economics of Privacy (Avi Goldfarb & Catherine Tucker eds., 2024); see also, more generally, Michal Gal & Oshrit Aviv, The Competitive Effects of the GDPR, 16 J. Competition L. & Econ. 349 (2020).

[4] Alfonso Miranda Londoño, Competition Law in Latin America. Main Trends and Features 5, Cent. Estud. Derecho Competencia (Apr. 2012), available at https://centrocedec.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/cornell-lacompetition-20123.pdf.

[5] Julian Peña, Las Políticas De Competencia en América Latina Post-Consenso de Washington, Cent. Compentencia (Mar. 31, 2021), at 7-8, available at https://centrocompetencia.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Julian-Pena.pdf.

[6] See Germán Coloma, The Argentine Competition Law and Its Enforcement, in Competition Law and Policy in Latin America (Eleanor Fox & Daniel Sokol, eds., 2009), at 94; Acts 11,210 and 12,906, from 1933 and 1946, respectively, were rarely enforced.

[7] Aida Sanchez Alonso, Brussels Looks to Regain Influence in Latin America, as Leaders’ Summit Begins, Euronews (Jul. 17, 2023), https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/07/17/brussels-looks-to-regain-influence-in-latin-america-as-leaders-summit-begins (“After eight years without any high-level summits, Europe wants to regain influence in the region, realising that the war in Ukraine has changed the rules of the game when it comes to geopolitics. China has also been massively investing in the region, something Brussels is looking to counter.”)

[8] Thibault Schrepel, The Expected Impact of “Great Power Competition” on Antitrust Policy, Network L. Rev. (May 17, 2023), https://www.networklawreview.org/great-power-competition.

[9] Regulation (EU) 2022/1925 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 September 2022 on Contestable and Fair Markets in the Digital Sector and Amending Directives (EU) 2019/1937 and (EU) 2020/1828, 2022 O.J. (L 265) 1 (hereinafter “DMA” or “Digital Markets Act”).

[10] Barbara Moens & Paola Tamma, Macron and Merkel Defy Brussels with Push for Industrial Champions, POLÍTICO EU (May 18, 2020), https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-and-merkel-defy-brussels-with-push-for-industrial-champions.

[11] Meredith Broadbent, Implications of the Digital Markets Act for Transatlantic Cooperation, Cent’r for Strategic & Int’l Studies (Sep. 15, 2021), at 19, https://www.csis.org/analysis/implications-digital-markets-act-transatlantic-cooperation.

[12] The term “digital competition regulation” or “DCR” will be used to differentiate the ex-ante regulation of digital markets for purposes connected (even if only purportedly) to competition from other regulations intended to serve other policy goals, such as the General Data Protection Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2016/679) or the EU AI Act. DCRs include both extant rules and those currently under consideration. Context on legislative status will be provided where available and appropriate.

[13] Lazar Radic, Geoffrey A. Manne, & Dirk Auer, Regulate for What? A Closer Look at the Rationales and Goals of Digital Competition Regulations, Int’l Ctr. L. Econ. (Aug. 1, 2024), forthcoming 22 Berkeley Bus. L.J., https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4929628.

[14] See Press Release, Países de la Comunidad Andina Dialogaron Sobre Libre Competencia Comunictaria y Mercados Digitales, Comunidad Andina (Nov. 28, 2022), https://www.comunidadandina.org/notas-de-prensa/paises-de-la-comunidad-andina-dialogaron-sobre-libre-competencia-comunitaria-y-mercados-digitales (free translation of the following text in Spanish: “Estamos seguros de que esta iniciativa fortalecerá a nivel regional el conocimiento especializado de los mercados digitales y la aplicación en la normativa comunitaria para la investigación y sanción por prácticas anticompetitivas y de abuso de posición de dominio en la región andina, sin perjuicio, de evaluar la posible elaboración de una normativa exclusiva para mercados digitales, como parte de nuestra agenda.”)

[15] Estrategia Digital, Com. Fed. Competencia Econ. (COFECE), (Mar. 30, 2020), available at https://www.cofece.mx/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/EstrategiaDigital_V10.pdf.

[16] Initially proposed as part of the final report of the UK’s Digital Competition Expert Panel (also known as the “Furman report”), a Digital Markets Unit is authorized to be created within the Competition and Markets Authority by virtue of the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Bill. See Jason Furman et al., Unlocking Digital Competition: Report of the Digital Competition Expert Panel (Mar. 2019), available at https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5c88150ee5274a230219c35f/unlocking_digital_competition_furman_review_web.pdf.

[17] COFECE, supra note 15, at 12.

[18] Estudio de Mercado del Sector Fintech en el Peru, Inst. Nac. Def. Competencia Prot. Prop. Intelect. (INDECOPI), (Sep. 30, 2023), at 138-139, available at https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/document/file/6215160/5476585-estudio-de-mercado-del-sector-fintech-en-peru.pdf?v=1713476412.

[19] PL 2768/2022, Dispõe Sobre a Organização, o Funcionamento e a Operação das Plataformas Digitais Que Oferecem Serviços ao Público Brasileiro e dá Outras Providências, Câmara dos Deputados (Nov. 10, 2022), available at https://www.camara.leg.br/proposicoesWeb/fichadetramitacao?idProposicao=2337417.

[20] Id. at 9 (free translation of the following text in Portuguese: “Já na Comissão Europeia, o ‘Digital Markets Act,’ direcionado aos chamados ‘controladores de acesso’ (gatekeepers) no mundo digital, é bastante detalhado e foi aprovado em 2022. Acreditamos que cabe introduzir uma regulação na linha da Comissão Européia, mas de forma bem menos detalhada. Isso porque estamos lidando com questões de extrema relevância, que exigem respostas regulatórias bem mais rápidas do que o que é possível na defesa da concorrência, mas suficientemente novas para indicar não ser cabível colocar uma camisa de força ex-ante nos agentes econômicos, com uma série de proibições absolutas.”)

[21] Plataformas Digitais: Aspectos Economicos e Concorrenciais e Recomendacoes para Aprimoramentos Regulatórios No Brasil, Minist. Fazenda (Oct. 10, 2024), available at https://www.gov.br/fazenda/pt-br/central-de-conteudo/publicacoes/relatorios/relatorio-plataformas-consolidado.pdf.

[22] Economía Digital Para el Cambio Estructural y la Igualdad, Econ. Comm. Lat. Am. Caribb. (ECLAC), (2013), at 97, available at https://repositorio.cepal.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/ce419364-f83a-4ef3-a9dd-91c9c295b273/content (free translation of the following text in Spanish: “Después de dos décadas de implementación de políticas que han enfatizado el desarrollo de la infraestructura, el acceso a Internet y la difusión de las TIC, la evidencia muestra una importante participación de la economía digital en el PIB. Estimaciones de la CEPAL indican que, en promedio para Argentina, Brasil, Chile y México, alcanza al menos a 3,2%, cifra no despreciable si se considera que en los 27 países de la Unión Europea el porcentaje correspondiente es 5%.”)

[23] Id. at 39.

[24] Id.

[25] Id.

[26] Latin American Economic Outlook 2020: Digital Transformation for Building Back Better, Organ. Econ. Co-oper. Dev. (Sep. 24, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1787/e6e864fb-en.

[27] Id. at 83.

[28] Id. at 94.

[29] Metodología del Índice de Desarrollo del Ecosistema Digital (IDED), Banco Desarro. Am. Lat. Caribe (Jan. 2017), available at https://scioteca.caf.com/bitstream/handle/123456789/1052/METODOLOGIA%20DE%20IDED.pdf.

[30] OECD, supra note 26, at 96.

[31] Individuals Using the Internet (% of population) – Latin America & Caribbean, World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.NET.USER.ZS?locations=ZJ (last visited Sep. 29, 2024).

[32] OECD, supra note 26, at 96.

[33] Id. at 127-128.

[34] Shaping the Digital Transformation in Latin America: Strengthening Productivity, Improving Lives, Organ. Econ. Co-oper. Dev. (2019), at 17, https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/8bb3c9f1-en.pdfexpires=1727657393&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=15F0525182C411C03A98395D05010716.

[35] Id. at 57.

[36] Id. at 13.

[37] Id. at 75.

[38] Id. at 75-76.

[39] In Section 2A, we explain why regulation of digital markets is not warranted under the standard “market failure rationale.”

[40] See, infra, Section 2.

[41] The DMA Art. 2(2) defines “core platform services” as including: online intermediation services, online search engines, online social-networking services, video-sharing platform services; number-independent interpersonal communications services; operating systems; web browsers; virtual assistants; cloud-computing services; and online advertising services, including any advertising networks, advertising exchanges, and any other advertising-intermediation services provided by an undertaking that provides any of the abovementioned core platform services.

[42] Other than the legal research and the advocacy reports by competition agencies cited in Section 2C.

[43] Richard A. Posner & William M. Landes, Market Power in Antitrust Cases, 94 Harv. L. Rev. 937, 947-951 (1980).

[44] Search Engine Market Share South America– August 2024, Statcounter, https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share/all/south-america (last visited Sep. 29, 2024).

[45] In 2014, it had nearly the same market share, 93.25%; see Search Engine Market Share South America– Jan – Dec 2014, Statcounter, https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share/all/south-america/2014 (last visited Sep. 29, 2024).

[46] Desktop Operating System Market Share South America, Statcounter, https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/south-america (last visited Sep. 30, 2024).

[47] Id.

[48] Mobile Operating System Market Share South America- Aug 2023-Aug 2024, Statcounter, https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/mobile/south-america (last visited Sep. 30, 2024).

[49] Imed Bouchrika, Mobile vs Desktop Usage Statistics for 2024, Research.com (Jun. 13, 2024), https://research.com/software/mobile-vs-desktop-usage.

[50] Jonathan Barnett, Illusions of Dominance: Revisiting the Market Power Assumption in Platform Ecosystems, 86 Antitrust L. J. 1, 13 (2024).

[51] See note 100 and accompanying text.

[52] Social Media Stats South America- Aug 2023-Aug 2024, Statcounter, https://gs.statcounter.com/social-media-stats/all/south-america (last visited Sep. 29, 2024). Computation of market-shares statistics does not include TikTok, but does include YouTube.

[53] Matteo Ceurvels, Facebook and Twitter Poised to Shed Users in Latin America, Emarketer (Apr. 10, 2023), https://www.emarketer.com/content/facebook-twitter-due-shed-users-latin-america.

[54] See Katharina Buchholz, The Rapid Rise of TikTok, Statista (Oct. 7, 2022), www.statista.com/chart/28412/social-media-users-by-network-amo.

[55] Estefanía Lotitto & Bernardo Díaz de Astarloa, The Landscape of B2C E-Commerce Marketplaces in Latin America and the Caribbean, Econ. Comm. Lat. Am. Caribb. (ECLAC), (2023), at 13, https://www.cepal.org/es/node/58098.

[56] Id. at 32.

[57] Latin American and Caribbean Competition Forum – Session III: Practical Approaches to Assessing Digital Platform Markets for Competition Law Enforcement, Organ. Econ. Co-oper. Dev. (Sep. 2019), at 12, available at https://one.oecd.org/document/DAF/COMP/LACF(2019)4/en/pdf.

[58] See Landes & Posner, supra note 43, at 950. Jonathan Barnett makes a similar point regarding cloud computing: “Regulators assert that cloud providers have natural incentives to exploit locked-in users. In a market in which users can multihome across cloud providers and retain data on-premises, this assertion does not withstand scrutiny. A provider that extracts immediate gains by degrading the quality of service for existing clients—an observable signal of provider opportunism—would be short-sighted since it would likely sacrifice a far larger stream of future gains as a result of decreased usage by existing clients and lost usage from potential clients. Given that the cloud market is still in its relatively early stages, the number of potential clients that have not yet migrated to cloud based data services almost certainly exceeds by a large measure the number of existing clients.” See Barnett, supra note 50, at 47.

[59] See Hovenkamp, infra note 92 and accompanying text; see also Daniel D. Sokol & Jingyuan (Mary) Ma, Understanding Online Markets and Antitrust Analysis, 15 Nw. J. Tech. & Intell. Prop. 43 (2017).

[60] Raymundo Campos, Alejandro Castañeda, Aurora Ramírez, & Carlos Ruiz, Amazon’s Effect on Prices: The Case of Mexico (El Colegio de Me?xico, Centro de Estudios Econ. Working Paper No. II-2022, 2022), available at https://cee.colmex.mx/dts/2022/DT-2022-2.pdf.

[61] OECD, supra note 57 at 13.

[62] Aeropost Ingresó a Competir en el Mercado de E-Commerce en el Perú, Semana Económica (Nov. 23, 2023), https://semanaeconomica.com/sectores-empresas/comercio/aeropost-ingreso-a-competir-en-el-mercado-de-e-commerce-en-el-peru.

[63] Id.

[64] OECD, supra note 57, at 114-15.

[65] See INDECOPI, supra note 18, at 24-25.

[66] Bas B. Bakker et al., The Rise and Impact of Fintech in Latin America, Fintech Notes (2023), https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/063/2023/003/article-A001-en.xml.

[67] Id.

[68] The Future Is Bright for Latin American Startups, The Economist (Nov. 13, 2023), https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/the-future-is-bright-for-latin-american-startups.

[69] Id.

[70] Guilherme Mendes Resende & Ricardo Carvalho de Andrade Lima, Evaluating the Competition Effects of Uber’s Entry into the Brazilian Incumbent Cab-Hailing App Segment, 14 J. Competition L. & Econ. 608–637 (2018), https://academic.oup.com/jcle/article-abstract/14/4/608/5528532; Juan David Gutiérrez & Manuel Abarca, Mind the Gap: Assessing Ride-Hailing Apps in Latin America and the Caribbean, Kluwer Competition L. Blog (Mar. 17, 2023), https://competitionlawblog.kluwercompetitionlaw.com/2023/03/17/mind-the-gap-assessing-ride-hailing-apps-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean.

[71] Scott Beyer, Latin America’s Food Delivery Wars, Catalyst (May 8, 2023), https://catalyst.independent.org/2023/05/08/latam-delivery.

[72] COFECE, supra note 15, at 6 (free translation of the following text in Spanish: “Hasta el momento, la llegada de algunos gigantes tecnológicos a los mercados mexicanos ha generado presión competitiva para las empresas tradicionales. Por ejemplo, la creciente actividad de empresas como Google y Facebook en el mercado de la publicidad puede tener como efecto que importantes empresas establecidas en este mercado enfrenten mayor competencia y trabajen arduamente por satisfacer las demandas de sus consumidores. Algo similar podría suceder en sectores como el de ventas al por menor, finanzas, movilidad y entretenimiento, cuyos mercados tradicionales presentan importantes niveles de concentración, y que con la llegada de empresas como Amazon, Uber, Cabify, Didi, diversas Fintech, Apple y Netflix podrían beneficiarse del proceso de competencia.”)

[73] Esteban Greco & María Fernanda Viecens, Economía Digital en América Latina: Reflexiones Sobre las Concentraciones Económicas en la Región, 21 Revista de Derecho Administrativo 146, 158-159 (2022), (free translation of the following text in Spanish: “Los jugadores digitales actúan como oferentes disruptivos respecto de los jugadores tradicionales. En diversos mercados se observa que son los desarrollos digitales los que ejercen presión competitiva sobre el mercado, y los que proveen productos novedosos y alternativas tecnológicas, resultando que el proceso competitivo incluye tanto a jugadores tradicionales como digitales. Entonces, en tales casos, más que mercados digitales se observan jugadores digitales irrumpiendo en mercados tradicionales y ejerciendo presión competitiva sobre oferentes establecidos.”)

[74] Giuseppe Colangelo, Evaluating the Case for Regulation of Digital Platforms, in The Gai Report on the Digital Economy (2020), at 905.

[75] Id. at 905-906.

[76] See Analytical Note on the G7 Inventory of New Rules for Digital Markets Organ. Econ. Co-Oper. Dev. (2023), available at https://www.oecd.org/competition/analytical-note-on-the-G7-inventory-of-new-rules-for-digital-markets-2023.pdf.

[77] See Bruce H. Kobayashi & Joshua D. Wright, Antitrust and Ex-Ante Sector Regulation, in The GAI Report on the Digital Economy (2020), at 869, Table 1; see also Pablo Ibañez Colomo, The New EU Competition Law (2023), at 125. (“The path eventually chosen by the Commission and the EU legislature is the enactment of sector-specific legislation, comparable in several respects to the one that applies to telecommunications and energy (electricity and gas) activities. At least formally speaking, the DMA is not a competition law regime. In fact, the Preamble itself is explicit about the role of the regulatory apparatus as a complement to Articles 101 and 102 TFEU.”)

[78] Colangelo, supra note 74, at 927-928; see also Radic, Manne, & Auer, supra note 12.

[79] Colangelo, supra note 74, at 914.

[80] See Robert Cooter & Tomas Ulen, Law and Economics (3d. ed., 2000), at 40-43; W. Kip Viscusi, Joseph E. Harrington Jr. & John M. Vernon, Economics of Regulation and Antitrust (4d. ed., 2005), 376-379.

[81] Henry Butler, Christopher R. Drahozal & Joanna Shepherd, Economic Analysis for Lawyers (3d. ed. 2014), at 125-126.

[82] Stephen Breyer, Regulation and its Reform (1982), at 15.

[83] Butler et al., supra note 81, at 26; Cooter & Ulen, supra note 80, at 40-43; Viscusi et al., supra note 80.

[84] See Breyer, supra note 82; see also Regulatory Impact Assessment: OECD Best Practice Principles for Regulatory Policy, Organ. Econ. Co-oper. Dev. (Feb. 25, 2020), https://doi.org/10.1787/7a9638cb-en.

[85] Thomas Lambert, Tech Platforms and Market Power: What’s the Optimal Policy Response? (Mercatus Ctr. Working Paper, 2021), at 14, tech-platforms-and-market-power-whats-optimal-policy-response.

[86] Radic, Manne, & Auer, supra note 12, at 21.

[87] See DMA, recitals 2-5.

[88] See Colangelo, supra note 74.

[89] See DMA, recital 2.

[90] See Breyer, supra note 82.

[91] Cooter & Ulen, supra note 80, at 40. (“The public policies for correcting the shortcomings of monopoly are to replace monopoly with competition where possible, or to regulate the price charged by the monopolist. The first policy is the rationale for the antitrust laws. But sometimes is not possible or even desirable to replace a monopoly. Natural monopolies, such as public utilities, are an example; those monopolies are allowed to continue in existence but government regulates their prices.”)

[92] Herbert Hovenkamp, Antitrust and Platform Monopoly, 130 Yale L. J. 1952, 1978 (2021).

[93] Richard Posner, Antitrust Law (2nd. ed., 2001), 248-250.

[94] Lambert, supra note 85, at 24-25.

[95] Id.

[96] Jonathan Barnett, Does the European Union’s Digital Markets Act Provide an Appropriate Model for Maintaining Competition in California’s Innovation Economy? (report commissioned by the Chamber of Progress, Dec. 2023), at 17, available at http://www.clrc.ca.gov/pub/2024/MM24-05.pdf.

[97] Id.

[98] Francesco Ducci, Natural Monopolies in Digital Platform Markets (2020).

[99] Id. at 73.

[100] Id. at 74.

[101] Id. at 95.

[102] Id. at 124.

[103] David S. Evans & Richard Schmalensee, Debunking the “Network Effects” Bogeyman, 40 Regulation 36, 39 (2017-2018), available at https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/regulation/2017/12/regulation-v40n4-1.pdf.

[104] Christopher Yoo, Network Effects in Action, in The GAI Report on the Digital Economy (2020), at 191, available at https://gaidigitalreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Yoo-Network-Effects-in-Action.pdf.

[105] Jean Tirole, Competition and the Industrial Challenge for the Digital Age, 15 Annual Rev. Econ. 573, 581 (2023), https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-economics-090622-024222.

[106] Foo Yun Chee, Watchdog Highlights Shortcomings in EU Rules to Curb Tech Companies, Reuters (Dec. 21, 2020), https://www.reuters.com/article/business/watchdog-highlights-shortcomings-in-eu-rules-to-curb-tech-companies-idUSKBN28V1KR.

[107] See The Evolving Concept of Market Power in the Digital Economy – Summaries of Contributions, Organ. Econ. Co-oper. Dev. (Jun. 22, 2022), available at https://one.oecd.org/document/DAF/COMP/WD(2022)63/en/pdf.

[108] Herbert Hovenkamp, Antitrust and Platform Monopoly, 130 Yale L. J. 1952, 1956 (2021).

[109] Lazar Radic, Digital-Market Regulation: One Size Does Not Fit All, Truth Mark. (Apr.17, 2023), https://truthonthemarket.com/2023/04/17/digital-market-regulation-one-size-does-not-fit-all.

[110] Alba Ribera, La Regulación de los Ecosistemas Digitales Frente a las Relaciones Complejas de los Operadores Económicos, Centro Competencia, (May 10, 2023), https://centrocompetencia.com/regulacion-ecosistemas-digitales-relaciones-complejas-operadores-economicos (free translation of the original text in Spanish: “Uno de los mayores ejemplos de la dicotomía que se erige entre los distintos tipos de consecuencias que se pueden generar por la captura regulatoria de los ecosistemas digitales lo podemos encontrar en la reciente decisión de Meta, de no lanzar su nuevo servicio Threads en el Espacio Económico Europeo. En la medida en que su servicio podría interpretarse de forma que cayera dentro de la definición de un ‘servicio básico de plataforma’ perteneciente a la categoría de redes sociales en línea’ (listada por la LMD), Meta decidió abstenerse de entrar en el mercado europeo, por la carga desproporcionada que le supondría las exigentes obligaciones impuestas por la LMD. Cabe notar que Threads es aún un servicio entrante en el mercado de redes sociales en línea, en contraste con la posición predominante ocupada por la actual (anteriormente conocida como Twitter). De esta forma, observamos que la categorización como servicio básico de plataforma unifica y elimina todos los matices que el propio juego de la libre competencia opera respecto de servicios entrantes en los mercados.”); The service was made available in the European Union later in the year. See Imram Rahman-Jones & Tome Gerken, Threads: Meta’s Rival to Elon Musk’s X Launches in EU, Br. Broadcast. Corp. (Dec. 14, 2023), https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-67695643.

[111] Radic, supra note 109 (“While perhaps the EU—the world’s third largest economy—can afford to impose costly and burdensome regulation on digital companies because it has considerable leverage to ensure (with some, though as we have seen, by no means absolute, certainty) that they will not desert the European market, smaller economies that are unlikely to be seen by GAMA as essential markets are playing a different game.”)

[112] See Press Release, Facebook and Instagram to Offer Subscription for No Ads in Europe, Meta (Oct. 30, 2023), https://about.fb.com/news/2023/10/facebook-and-instagram-to-offer-subscription-for-no-ads-in-europe.

[113] See GDP Per Capita, Current Prices, Int’l. Monet. Fund, https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/WE (last visited Sep. 29, 2024).

[114] See Geoffrey Manne & Dirk Auer, Brussels Effect or Brussels Defect: Digital Regulation in Emerging Markets, Truth Mark. (Dec. 20, 2022), https://truthonthemarket.com/2022/12/20/brussels-effect-or-brussels-defect-digital-regulation-in-emerging-markets. The argument presented is about South Africa, but may be even more relevant to Latin America.

[115] Ke Rong, D. Daniel Sokol, Di Zhou, & Feng Zhu, Antitrust Platform Regulation and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from China (Harvard Business Sch. Tech & Operations Mgt. Unit Working Paper No. 24-039, USC Class Research Paper No. 24-16, 2024), https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4697283.

[116] Anti-Monopoly Guidelines, State Counc. People’s Repub. China, https://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-02/07/content_5585758.htm (last visited Dec. 20, 2024). The Chinese anti-monopoly guidelines for the platform economy do not include all the obligations and prohibitions included in digital market regulations like the DMA, but they do regulate “unfair price practices” and whether some “relevant platforms are necessary facilities.”

[117] Rong, Sokol, Zhou, & Zhu, supra note 115, at 13.

[118] Mario Draghi, The Future of European Competitiveness, Eur. Comm. (Sep. 2024), https://commission.europa.eu/topics/strengthening-european-competitiveness/eu-competitiveness-looking-ahead_en.

[119] Id., at 79.

[120] Id., at 8.

[121] Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Nicolás Fernández-Arias, The Latin American Growth Shortfall: Productivity and Inequality, (UNDP LAC Working Paper Series, Mar. 2021), at 4, 8, https://www.undp.org/latin-america/publications/latin-american-growth-shortfall-productivity-and-inequality.

[122] National Accounts Data Files, World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?end=2023&locations=US-BR-MX-AR-PA-PE-CL-CO&name_desc=false&start=1961&view=chart (last visited Mar. 9, 2025).

[123] Colangelo, supra note 74, at 930.

[124] While acknowledging the relative “slowness” of antitrust procedures and these may be more relevant for Latin America, see Lambert, supra note 85, at 17. (“It is important, however, not to overstate these limitations. As precedents develop, antitrust becomes both more determinate (as business planners, enforcers, and courts may look to past judgments to predict how courts will assess the reasonableness of a challenged practice) and faster (as the growing pattern of precedents deters conduct likely to generate an adverse judgment). In the early days of new business models and market structures, legal expectations are unclear, and adjudication is required to establish them. As precedents develop around novel markets and practices, antitrust’s directives become clearer and generate more immediate effects.”)

[125] Regulators often run the risk of condemning business practices and models that they don’t fully understand; even the businesses that implement them don’t always fully know or understand the impact of such practices. See Frank Easterbrook, The Limits of Antitrust, 63 Tex. L. Rev. 1 (1984).

[126] Press Release, Commission Opens Non-Compliance Investigations Against Alphabet, Apple and Meta Under the Digital Markets Act, Eur. Comm. (Mar. 25, 2024), https://digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu/commission-opens-non-compliance-investigations-against-alphabet-apple-and-meta-under-digital-markets-2024-03-25_en.

[127] See notes 107 and 108 and accompanying text.

[128] Radic, Manne, & Auer, supra note 12, at. 69.

[129] See Giuseppe Colangelo & Oscar Borgogno, App Stores as Public Utilities? Truth Mark. (Jan. 19, 2022), https://truthonthemarket.com/2022/01/19/app-stores-as-public-utilities.

[130] Randal Picker, Prepared of Randal Picker, Investigation into the State of Competition in the Digital Market Place, U.S. House Judic. Subcomm. Antitrust Commer. Adm. Law (May 11, 2020), at 31, available at https://picker.uchicago.edu/PickerHouseStatement.100.pdf.

[131] S.2992 – American Innovation and Choice Online Act, 117th Congress (2021-2022), https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/2992/text.

[132] See Jeremy Torres, Pourquoi Google Maps ne Fonctionne Plus Directement Dans la Recherche Google, Liberation (last updated Mar. 5, 2024), https://www.liberation.fr/economie/pourquoi-google-maps-ne-fonctionne-plus-directement-dans-la-recherche-google-et-comment-y-remedier-20240304_2WCOEUZ5IJADFMSTFPQXY2KBTA.

[133] Thomas A. Lambert, AICOA Is Neither Urgently Needed Nor Good: A Response to Professors Scott Morton, Salop, and Dinielli, Truth Mark. (Jul. 25, 2022), https://truthonthemarket.com/2022/07/25/aicoa-is-neither-urgently-needed-nor-good-a-response-to-professors-scott-morton-salop-and-dinielli.

[134] Kobayashi & Wright, supra note 77, at 869-870. Kobayashi and Wright acknowledge that “this advantage may not be important when such heterogeneity is minimal or when it cannot be predicted ex-ante by the regulated firms. Moreover, the absence of effective ex-post remedies may favor the ex-ante approach even with heterogeneity.” As we explain in Section 2B, digital markets are heterogeneous.

[135] Lambert, supra note 124, at 14 (“Because they are more rigid and prescriptive than antitrust’s flexible standards, and thus less likely to be appropriate for a broad range of diverse firms, ex ante rules addressing market power concerns tend to be limited in scope. They are usually tailored for a particular industry or group of firms. Antitrust’s standards are focused on ends rather than specific means, and are therefore less likely to ‘misfire’ when applied broadly.”).

[136] Posner, supra note 93, at 39 (“Rules are generally simpler and cheaper to enforce than standards and provide clearer guidance both to the people subject to them and to the courts that administer them. But they are often either underinclusive or overinclusive, and sometimes they are both at the same time. They are especially apt to fail as a sensible method of lawmaking when the relation of the rule’s purpose to the fact of facts that it makes determinative or legality is unclear. In such cases, the decision whether to characterize the case as falling within the domain of the rule may depend on the same factors that would determine legality under a standard.”).

[137] Even in civil-law countries (as most, if not all, countries in Latin America are), antitrust laws are generally designed as ex-post rules with general prohibitions. While some specific practices may be listed as anticompetitive, courts and competition agencies have circumscribed, through the caselaw, the precise boundaries of anticompetitive behavior.

[138] Geoffrey A. Manne, Error Costs in Digital Markets, in The Gai Report On The Digital Economy (2020), at 38-39.

[139] Id.

[140] Barnett, supra note 96, at 15.

[141] Jacques Crémer, Yves-Alexandre De Montjoye, & Heike Schweitzer, Competition Policy for The Digital Era, Eur. Comm. (2019), at 126.

[142] Id. at 70.

[143] Giuseppe Colangelo, The Digital Markets Act and EU Antitrust Enforcement: Double & Triple Jeopardy, Int’l Ctr. L. Econ. (Mar. 23, 2022), at 7, available at the-digital-markets-act-and-eu-antitrust-enforcement-double-triple-jeopardy.

[144] Case B6-22/16 Facebook, Bundeskartellamt (Feb. 6, 2019), available at https://www.bundeskartellamt.de/SharedDocs/Entscheidung/EN/Entscheidungen/Missbrauchsaufsicht/2019/B6-22-16.pdf.

[145] Case AT.40153, E-book MFNs and Related Matters (Amazon), Eur. Comm. (May 4, 2017), available at https://ec.europa.eu/competition/antitrust/cases/dec_docs/40153/40153_4392_3.pdf.

[146] Case AT.39740 Google Search (Shopping), Eur. Comm. (Jun. 27, 2017), available at https://ec.europa.eu/competition/antitrust/cases/dec_docs/39740/39740_14996_3.pdf.

[147] Radic, Manne, & Auer, supra note 12, at 33.

[148] Lambert, supra note 85,  at 53-54.

[149] Dennis W. Carlton & Randall C. Picker, Antitrust and Regulation (Nat’l Bureau Econ. Research Working Paper No. 12902, 2007), at 50-51, available at, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w12902/w12902.pdf. (“Regulation created numerous inefficiencies and benefited special groups. In response to criticisms of regulation, antitrust either completely or partially replaced regulation and antitrust was used as a complement and sometimes as a constraint on regulators in many industries. The deregulated network industries that we examined all show a similar pattern: after deregulation, there is massive consolidation, a lessening of the reliance on interconnection from other firms, a decline in either wages or employment or both, and a fall in prices with a reduction or end to any cross subsidy. Consumers benefit, special interests are harmed… The relative advantages and disadvantages of each mechanism became clearer over time. Regulation produced cross-subsidies and favors to special interests, but was able to specify prices and specific rules of how firms should deal with each other. Antitrust, especially when it became economically coherent within the past 30 years or so, showed itself to be reasonably good at promoting competition, avoiding the favoring of special interests, but not good at formulating specific rules for particular industries.”)

[150] Tirole, supra note 105, at 580.

[151] Ibañez Colomo, supra note 78, at 131.

[152] Id.

[153] Posner, supra note 93, at 256. (Posner does acknowledge that “the institutional structure of antitrust enforcement” could be troublesome when applying antitrust laws to the “new economy.” But he suggests addressing those difficulties within the realm of antitrust law, with some reforms to streamline procedures and allow the use of more technical expertise.)

[154] OECD, supra note 57, at 6.

[155] Juan David Gutiérrez & Manuel Abarca, Challenges to Competition and Innovation in Digital Markets. Insights from Latin American cases, in Digital Platforms, Competition Law, and Regulation: Comparative Perspectives (Kalpana Tyagi, et al. eds., 2024), at 164-165. (These figures do not include merger-control cases or advocacy reports, where the authors found that “… in the same period, LAC’s competition authorities assessed a significant number of digital markets cases in their merger control processes and advocacy activities. Merger control cases that involve digital markets were assessed in 43 per cent of the jurisdictions with mandatory merger control (six out of 14). The jurisdictions that dealt with digital merger cases were Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, and Mexico. Competition advocacy reports, market studies and competition assessments of regulatory projects related to digital markets were published in 48 per cent of LAC’s jurisdictions studied in this chapter (11 out of 23). These are Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. Furthermore, the explicit prioritisation of a ‘digital antitrust agenda’ by the competition agencies of Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru may render additional cases soon.”)

[156] Andrés Fuchs & Nader Mufdi, Derecho de la Competencia y Regulación de Mercados Digitales: Desafíos y Propuestas para Latinoamérica, Diàlogos Cent. Competencia (Jul. 2021), at 12, available at https://centrocompetencia.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Fuchs-y-Mufdi-Derecho-de-la-Competencia-y-Regulacion-de-mercado-digitales-Desafios-y-Propuestas-para-Latinoamerica.pdf.

[157] Fixing Markets, Not Prices: Policy Options to Tackle Economic Cartels in Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank (2021), at 8, available at https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/148021625810668365/pdf/Fixing-Markets-Not-Prices-Policy-Options-to-Tackle-Economic-Cartels-in-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.pdf.

[158] Dictamen Firma Conjunta Número, Com. Nac. Def. Competencia (2021), at 56, available at https://www.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/2017/02/cond_1767.pdf.

[159] See Luiz Azevedo de Almeida Hoffmann & Rafael Rossini Parisi, Abuse of Dominance in Digital Markets – Contribution from Brazil (Session II, OECD Global Forum on Competition, Dec. 2020), available at https://cdn.cade.gov.br/Relatoriorios%20de%20gestao/2020/Cap.%201/Abuse%20of%20dominance%20in%20digital%20markets.pdf.

[160] See Administrative Inquiry No. 08700.005679/2016-13 (Braz.).

[161] See Administrative Proceeding No. 08012.0101483/2011-94 (Braz.).

[162] Almeida & Parisi, supra note 159, at 5.

[163] See Dirk Auer & Lazar Radic, The Legacy of Neo-Brandeisianism: History or Footnote?, Network L. Rev. (Jul. 9, 2024), https://www.networklawreview.org/auer-radic-brandeisianism. (“For example, in 2021 the UK created a “Digital Markets Unit” (DMU) within the Competition and Markets Authority, which is now charged with enforcing the DMCC. The DMU’s headcount is set to rise from 70 in 2022 to 200 by the end of 2024. For its part, the EU currently has 80 staff assigned to enforce the DMA.”)

[164] Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Review, April 2024 – Competition: The Missing Ingredient for Growth?, World Bank (Apr. 2024), at 48, available at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/184bce21-8fec-4b14-acad-9ee256e7db93/download.

[165] OECD Economic Surveys: Peru 2023, Organ. Econ. Co-Oper. Dev. (2023), at 62, https://doi.org/10.1787/081e0906-en.

[166] World Bank, supra note 156, at 49.

[167] OECD, supra note 34, at 4.

[168] Pau Castellas, Lucrecia Corvalan, & Facundo Rattel, Connectivity Gaps in Latin America. A Roadmap for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and Ecuador, GSMA Intell. (Mar. 2023), available at https://www.gsma.com/latinamerica/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/FINAL-Brechas-de-conectividad-en-America-Latina_-LONG-report-ENGLISH-DIGITAL-30-03-2023.pdf.

[169] OECD, supra note 26, at 98.

[170] Id. at 174.

[171] Id. at 175.

[172] Id.

[173] Id. at 126.

[174] OECD, supra note 57, at 13-14.

[175] Lotitto & Diaz, supra note 55, at 32

[176] Hernando De Soto, The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else (2000), 223-224.

[177] Ease of Doing Business Rankings, World Bank (2020), available at https://archive.doingbusiness.org/content/dam/doingBusiness/pdf/db2020/Doing-Business-2020_rankings.pdf.

[178] OECD, supra note 157, at 1.

[179] Shaping the Digital Transformation in Latin America: Strengthening Productivity, Improving Lives, Organ. Econ. Co-Oper. Dev. (2019), at 8, available at https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/science-and-technology/shaping-the-digital-transformation-in-latin-america_8bb3c9f1-en.

[180] Id.

[181] Id. at 29

[182] Id.

[183] Id. at 30.

[184] Id. at 59.

[185] Id. at 59.

[186] Most digital platforms, of course, are already available in Latin America, but do not necessarily serve Latin American markets at full capacity. Think, for example, of a marketplace that allows consumers to buy goods from vendors in the United States, but does has no logistics operations or relations with local vendors in the user’s country.

 

SHORT FORM WRITTEN OUTPUT

Termination Tuesday: A Quasi-Comprehensive, Quasi-Definitive Discussion of the FTC and Humphrey’s Executor

On March 18, President Donald Trump fired—or purported to fire—the two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC): Alvaro Bedoya and Rebecca Slaughter. Bedoya . . .

On March 18, President Donald Trump fired—or purported to fire—the two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC): Alvaro Bedoya and Rebecca Slaughter. Bedoya promptly tweeted that he’d been “illegally” fired.

Read the full piece here.

Stop Saying a Value-Added Tax Is an Export Subsidy

In a recent Financial Times opinion piece, Jason Cummins (who holds a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University) argued that the Trump administration should impose a 25% . . .

In a recent Financial Times opinion piece, Jason Cummins (who holds a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University) argued that the Trump administration should impose a 25% tariff on European goods to offset an “unfair advantage” from Europe’s value-added tax (VAT) system. According to Cummins, European exporters like BMW Group enjoy an “implicit subsidy” when they receive VAT rebates on exports, while American companies like General Motors Co. are disadvantaged when they sell to Europe.

This argument sounds logical on its surface. After all, BMW does get a VAT refund when exporting to the United States, while GM faces the full VAT when selling to Europe. Doesn’t this create an uneven playing field?

No. No way. Not at all.

Read the full piece here.

Capital One/Discover Deal: Rumored Concerns Lack Substance

The proposed merger of Capital One Financial Corp. and Discover Financial Services Inc. would appear to be moving toward completion, as more than 99% of . . .

The proposed merger of Capital One Financial Corp. and Discover Financial Services Inc. would appear to be moving toward completion, as more than 99% of the companies’ shareholders voted last month to approve the $35.3 billion deal. According to at least one report, however, anonymous sources in the U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) suggest the agency might still challenge the merger on antitrust grounds due to alleged concerns about the significant market share the combined company would hold in the subprime credit-card market.

But as my International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) and I demonstrate in a white paper we published last summer, the DOJ’s focus on subprime competition may be missing some key market dynamics. In particular, the combination likely would benefit consumers—especially those with lower credit scores—by creating new opportunities and potentially more competitive financial services.

Read the full piece here.

The FTC Firings Are About Something Bigger than Policy or Personnel

I practiced antitrust law for almost five decades. For most of that time, if someone asked what I did, I would have to explain what . . .

I practiced antitrust law for almost five decades. For most of that time, if someone asked what I did, I would have to explain what the word “antitrust” meant.

Today, by contrast, antitrust is very much in the news, driven in the recent past by the aggressive actions and even more aggressive rhetoric of the Biden administration’s antitrust enforcers, and most immediately by President Donald Trump’s firing earlier this month of two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). In many ways, antitrust now serves as a microcosm of all the complexity that has arrived with the Trump administration, and what appears to be its sometimes inconsistent (but always dramatic) actions.

Read the full piece here.

Google and Apple Determinations Show How Little Users Matter Under the DMA

Following up the initial implementation of the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), which included such “successes” as the first porn app on iOS and diverting revenues away from . . .

Following up the initial implementation of the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), which included such “successes” as the first porn app on iOS and diverting revenues away from hotels to online intermediaries, last week’s European Commission determinations regarding Alphabet and Apple once again demonstrate that the direct interests of users—including their privacy and security—remain an afterthought under the DMA.

The Commission sent its preliminary findings to Alphabet on “self-preferencing” in Google Search and on “steering rules” in Google Play. Apple received final specification decisions on the process for interoperability requests and on requirements for iOS’ interoperability with third-party devices.

Though the announcements provide some new details, their main thrust is unsurprising and fully in line with the trends we’ve observed since the DMA was just a legislative proposal. The Commission once again chose to privilege and advocate for the designated gatekeepers’ competitors above the interests of users and brick-and-mortar businesses.

Read the full piece here.

US Export Controls on AI and Semiconductors

TL;DR Background: The United States implemented unprecedented restrictions on semiconductor exports to China in October 2022, which were subsequently expanded in 2023 and 2024.  Aimed . . .

TL;DR

Background: The United States implemented unprecedented restrictions on semiconductor exports to China in October 2022, which were subsequently expanded in 2023 and 2024. 

Aimed at limiting China’s AI capabilities, the controls serve to restrict the export of advanced  graphics processing units (GPUs) and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and even prohibit U.S. persons from supporting advanced Chinese chip facilities.

But… The effectiveness of these controls hinges on several critical timeline questions. Most importantly, should policymakers expect that transformative AI capabilities will emerge within two-to-three years, or will such developments take a decade or more? 

If development is slower, China may achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency in the interim. This would render the controls counterproductive by accelerating China’s technological independence, while simultaneously harming U.S. companies and potentially exacerbating the geopolitical risks around Taiwan.

However… Policymakers should design export controls with sufficient flexibility to adapt as the technological landscape evolves. 

The relative effectiveness of AI export policy will depend heavily on multilateral cooperation with allies like Japan and the Netherlands. The potential economic impacts extend beyond immediate revenue considerations to long-term technological leadership and strategic positioning.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The Timeline Debate Is Fundamental

The core debate centers on whether transformative AI capabilities will emerge in the near term of two or three years, or the longer term of a decade or more. If the “short-term advancement” scenario is correct, chip export controls could effectively limit China’s ability to deploy advanced AI at-scale, providing a strategic advantage to the United States and its allies. But if significant AI advancements take longer, China will likely develop its own chip-manufacturing capabilities during that timeframe. This would render existing controls ineffective while denying revenue to U.S. companies and accelerating China’s technological independence, especially from Taiwan.

Two Competing Visions

Figures like Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predict that “super powerful AI” could emerge by 2026-27, therefore justifying strong export controls to maintain U.S. advantage. An opposing view, voiced by Stratechery’s Ben Thompson and others, questions the long-term efficacy of such restrictions if AI advancements take a decade or longer, during which time China could develop domestic manufacturing capabilities.

China Has Demonstrated Impressive Adaptation

Chinese firms have shown a remarkable ability to adapt and innovate despite the constraints imposed by the existing export controls. DeepSeek released a competitive (although not leading) reasoning model (R1) that reportedly uses far fewer computational resources than American companies typically employ. Similarly, Huawei has produced smartphones with domestically manufactured 7nm processors, despite significant restrictions. These developments suggest that export controls may drive innovations in efficiency, with Chinese companies learning to “squeeze every little bit of IQ out of every flop” under hardware constraints.

Economic Impact on US Companies

Export controls’ effects on U.S. semiconductor companies have been multifaceted. Suppliers of wafer-fabrication equipment (WFE) initially warned of a potential “death spiral,” but industry research suggests that the initial two years of export controls have been very good for their business. For AI-chip manufacturers like Nvidia, the picture is more nuanced. Export controls harm them by reducing market access but  may potentially help by impeding Chinese competitors.

Taiwan’s Position Creates Strategic Vulnerability

The success of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, particularly industry leader TSMC, contributes to a complex geopolitical dynamic. U.S. export controls might inadvertently reduce China’s dependence on Taiwanese chip production, even as Taiwan remains critical to the United States. This raises the possibility that Chinese leaders might calculate the economic costs of military action would disproportionately harm the United States rather than China, potentially lowering the perceived threshold for conflict.

Catastrophic Economic Risks of Taiwan Conflict

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan poses potentially catastrophic risks to the U.S. economy. Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturing represents a critical chokepoint in technology supply chains. While much attention has focused on the cutting-edge chips used in AI systems and high-end smartphones, Taiwan also produces vast quantities of “trailing-edge” chips essential for automobiles, consumer electronics, industrial equipment, and military systems. A conflict that disrupts Taiwan’s manufacturing capacity would likely trigger widespread supply-chain failures across virtually every sector of the U.S. economy. 

Effective Controls Require Multilateral Cooperation

The success of export controls hinges on cooperation from key U.S. allies, particularly Japan and the Netherlands, which host critical semiconductor equipment manufacturers like ASML. But these countries may have different economic interests and threat perceptions. In 2023, 29% of the Netherlands’ ASML sales went to customers in China, creating a strong disincentive to further restrict exports. Without aligned international policies, unilateral U.S. actions face significant limitations, as China can procure restricted technologies through third-party countries or alternative suppliers.

Export Controls Need Adaptive Flexibility

Given the fundamental uncertainty about technological trajectories, export controls should be flexible to adapt as the landscape evolves. Static policies risk becoming either irrelevant or counterproductive as conditions change. The controls imposed by the Biden administration have already evolved from focusing on both computing performance and interconnection bandwidth to primarily targeting computing performance, with different versions of chips created specifically for the Chinese market. Future policies will need to be similarly adaptable to remain effective, as both AI capabilities and semiconductor manufacturing techniques continue to advance.

For more on this issue, see the International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) issue brief “US Export Controls on AI and Semiconductors: Two Divergent Visions.” 

Colorado’s Proposed Card Fee Regulations Do More Harm than Good

Colorado’s state House just passed a bill to regulate various aspects of card transactions in the state. Proponents claim these regulations will save merchants millions of dollars . . .

Colorado’s state House just passed a bill to regulate various aspects of card transactions in the state. Proponents claim these regulations will save merchants millions of dollars to pass on to consumers. The evidence suggests the opposite is far more likely. The bill also likely violates federal law.

Read the full piece here.

Capital One-Discover Merger Would Be Good for Working Classes

Last month, over 99% of the stockholders of Capital One and Discover formally approved the merger of the two firms. But rumors recently emerged from unnamed sources in the Department of Justice (DOJ) that...

Last month, over 99% of the stockholders of Capital One and Discover formally approved the merger of the two firms. But rumors recently emerged from unnamed sources in the Department of Justice (DOJ) that the merger might be considered anti-competitive due to the relatively large share of the so-called “sub-prime” credit card market held by the two companies. This would be a mistake, as the evidence shows the merger would be good for all consumers—especially those with lower credit scores.

Read the full piece here.

FTC Should Focus More Heavily on Fraudsters

The Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) two-fold mission is “[p]rotecting the public from deceptive or unfair business practices [consumer protection] and from unfair methods of competition [antitrust] through . . .

The Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) two-fold mission is “[p]rotecting the public from deceptive or unfair business practices [consumer protection] and from unfair methods of competition [antitrust] through law enforcement, advocacy, research, and education.” To maximize its benefits to the American public, the FTC should focus its consumer-protection enforcement on hardcore fraud. In light of resource constraints, it should consider dropping costly rulemakings and cases of questionable benefit to the American public and redirecting those resources to fraud enforcement.

Read the full piece here.

The View from Brazil: A TOTM Q&A with Gustavo Augusto Freitas de Lima

Our latest guest in Truth on the Market’s “Global Voices Forum” series is Gustavo Augusto Freitas de Lima, a commissioner at Brazil’s Administrative Council for Economic Defense . . .

Our latest guest in Truth on the Market’s “Global Voices Forum” series is Gustavo Augusto Freitas de Lima, a commissioner at Brazil’s Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE). In this conversation, we explore Brazil’s evolving approach to digital regulation, including the legislative proposals currently under discussion, the government’s priorities, and the role CADE would play in the future in overseeing digital markets. Gustavo provides insights into Brazil’s approach to ex-ante regulation, its potential differences from the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), and the challenges of balancing innovation with market oversight.

Read the full piece here.

Competition Confusion in the UK

UK Member of Parliament (former Conservative Party Cabinet Minister) Kit Malthouse published an essay in CapX earlier this month titled “We need a competition revolution.” I, of . . .

UK Member of Parliament (former Conservative Party Cabinet Minister) Kit Malthouse published an essay in CapX earlier this month titled “We need a competition revolution.” I, of course, completely agree that competition is vitally important to any economy, and the UK has been struggling with productivity and growth challenges that may be linked to competition issues. But as I read Malthouse’s piece, I found myself increasingly disillusioned.

Rather than take an evidence-based, market-oriented approach, Malthouse paints a dire picture of rampant monopolization across British industries: “we see the same pattern: a handful of dominant firms controlling vast swathes of the economy, shutting out competition and stifling innovation.”

Malthouse’s argument suffers from two fundamental problems: it is wrong on the evidence, and it is wrong on the economy theory. Besides that, it is not a bad piece.

Read the full piece here.

Rearranging Deck Chairs on the Titanic of Latin American Competition Policy

Competition authorities and policymakers around the world have devoted a growing proportion of their time and resources over the last decade to digital markets. Typically, . . .

Competition authorities and policymakers around the world have devoted a growing proportion of their time and resources over the last decade to digital markets. Typically, this attention has been accompanied by vocal antipathy toward large digital platforms, as regulators and lawmakers invoke the need to “rein in digital monopolies” that allegedly cause a broad array of social harms.

As I detail in a new International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) white paper, Latin America has been no exception to this trend. Competition authorities in Latin America have targeted digital markets by initiating cases, investigations, and studies similar to those in Europe and the United States. At the same time, the region’s competition agencies have come under harsh criticism for allegedly being “too technocratic” and “too narrowly focused” on consumer welfare. Some populists have attacked competition agencies for being “neoliberal institutions,” with calls to curb their powers or take away their independence.

As I argue in the ICLE white paper, Latin American agencies should resist these pressures and use their scarce enforcement resources to address behavior that truly hurts consumers and distorts competition. Toward that end, digital markets need not (and likely should not) be their primary concern.

Read the full piece here.

Move Clean Energy Dollars into General Fund

The Oregonian/OregonLive reports that the Portland Clean Energy Fund has a current balance of more than $920 million (“Portland eyes using clean energy fund, again, . . .

The Oregonian/OregonLive reports that the Portland Clean Energy Fund has a current balance of more than $920 million (“Portland eyes using clean energy fund, again, as budget shortfall looms,” Mar. 13). Yet the city also claims it’s facing a budget shortfall of $150 million.

It’s time that the Portland City Council declared the PCEF experiment over. All it takes is seven councilors to vote to move all PCEF money into the city’s general fund. This would immediately solve Portland’s budget woes and provide a reserve for future years.

We elected a 12-member City Council to make the difficult decisions. Moving PCEF into the general fund is not one of them.

If councilors believe that so-called clean energy projects are a city priority, they should compete for general fund money along with other priorities, such as public safety, road maintenance and reducing homelessness.

What Changes Might, and Should, a New FTC Majority Bring?

The question on everyone’s mind—that is, for those in antitrust law and economics, the question on everyone’s mind that’s about antitrust—is this: Where do we . . .

The question on everyone’s mind—that is, for those in antitrust law and economics, the question on everyone’s mind that’s about antitrust—is this: Where do we go from here?

As it happens, the International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) recently hosted a panel discussion on precisely that question. ICLE’s Geoff Manne moderated an excellent discussion with panelists Maureen Ohlhausen, now the head of Wilson Sonsini’s competition practice and former commissioner and acting chair of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC); William Blumenthal, recently retired from Sidley and former FTC general counsel; and Andrew Finch, currently with Cravath and former principal deputy U.S. assistant attorney general and acting assistant attorney general for antitrust. For those who missed it, it’s must-see TV. Or, at least, must-see YouTube.

Read the full piece here.

Prices Are Signals (and Politicians Keep Shooting the Messenger)

Back in November, I outlined eight economic insights that matter for policy. I promised to explain them one by one. It’s taken me months to get to . . .

Back in November, I outlined eight economic insights that matter for policy. I promised to explain them one by one. It’s taken me months to get to that—not because I forgot, but because this concept is a central part of the book I’m working on. I wanted to make sure I had all the parts lined up, all 5,000 words of them.

This is the most central insight from economics, and every other one depends on understanding it:

A price is a signal wrapped in an incentive. Prices aren’t just good or bad numbers—they tell us what’s scarce while creating pressure for change.

When most people see a high price, they see a problem (unless the “price” is their wage, and then everyone is happy with the high price). Politicians get elected by promising to “do something” about high prices. But economists see prices as something different: a piece of information that’s telling us something important about the world, paired with a built-in mechanism to address the underlying issue.

Prices are the nervous system of the economy—they transmit vital information throughout the entire economic body without any central coordination. Every day, billions of economic actors make decisions based on prices. Should I buy this house? Should we manufacture more refrigerators? Should I become a software engineer? Prices guide these countless choices, while providing the decentralized coordination that makes complex modern economies possible.

What makes this system remarkable is that it requires no mastermind, no central planner calculating how many toothbrushes to produce or avocados to ship. Instead, prices emerge naturally from the interactions of buyers and sellers, each pursuing their own interests yet collectively generating an intricate web of information and response that no single mind could conceive.

Read the full piece here.

Android Auto: The End of the Essential Facility Doctrine as We Know It

The Grand Chamber of the European Court of Justice’s (CJEU) recent decision in Android Auto marks a pivotal—and possibly final—chapter in the contentious evolution of . . .

The Grand Chamber of the European Court of Justice’s (CJEU) recent decision in Android Auto marks a pivotal—and possibly final—chapter in the contentious evolution of the essential facility doctrine (EFD) [for a comprehensive analysis of the decision and its implications, see my working paper on “The EU essential facilities doctrine after Android Auto: a wild card without limiting principles?”].

As an exception to the general principle that businesses are free to decide whether to grant access to their facilities, the EFD debate fundamentally revolves around defining its boundaries. At its core, the doctrine seeks to balance fundamental rights with competition policy, as well as short-term and long-term competitive dynamics.

Read the full piece here.

Regulating Media Ownership for a Competitive World

TL;DR Background: Today’s media landscape bears little resemblance to the one that existed when most broadcast and cable regulations were created. In the 20th century, . . .

TL;DR

Background: Today’s media landscape bears little resemblance to the one that existed when most broadcast and cable regulations were created. In the 20th century, when broadcast radio and television were dominant, the scarcity of spectrum justified ownership restrictions and public-interest obligations, but that justification has weakened over time. Technological innovations like digital compression have expanded capacity, while alternative distribution methods have multiplied. Today’s consumers increasingly access video content through streaming platforms subject to minimal oversight, while legacy media providers continue to operate under restrictive regulatory frameworks designed for a bygone era. 

But… This regulatory asymmetry creates economic inefficiencies and distorts competition. Broadcasters operate under one set of ownership regulations and cable providers operate under another set. Meanwhile, the emerging market of internet-based video distribution continues to operate almost entirely free from ownership regulations. Companies like Netflix, Amazon, and YouTube entered the market without facing the ownership limitations, public-interest obligations, or local-content requirements imposed on their legacy competitors. 

However… A more coherent approach to media-ownership rules would recognize that video distribution is now a unified market with multiple technologies to deliver content. By establishing technology-neutral competition principles, policymakers can create a more efficient media marketplace while addressing legitimate market concentration concerns.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The Regulatory Divide Is Stark

Broadcast-television owners face national audience-reach caps (39%) and limits on local-market ownership. Cable operators have historically faced subscriber-percentage restrictions. Streaming services face no comparable restrictions and can serve 100% of the U.S. market without triggering regulatory concerns. 

Broadcasters must serve local communities with news and public-interest programming while streaming services have no such obligations.

Technological Convergence Creates Inefficiencies

The same content now flows through multiple technological channels. When consumers can access identical content through numerous pathways, regulating these pathways differently creates arbitrary distortions. This year’s Super Bowl game was broadcast on Fox and streamed on Tubi and Fubo. The Academy Awards were broadcast on ABC and streamed on Hulu and other services.

This regulatory mismatch tilts the playing field. Broadcasters, bound by ownership limits, can’t grow or consolidate as freely as cable channels or streaming services. Meanwhile, cable operators and streamers can acquire more channels or bundle them strategically without similar restrictions.

The phenomenon gives rise to regulatory arbitrage, where content providers exploit differences in regulations across distribution methods. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) recently opened a docket on a complaint against CBS about “news distortion” related to its editing of a Kamala Harris interview, and President Donald Trump has said that CBS should lose its broadcast license over the piece. The FCC would have no jurisdiction if the edited interview had been streamed on Paramount+ instead of CBS.

Scarcity Arguments Have Weakened

The spectrum-scarcity justification for broadcast ownership-limits has diminished considerably. Technological innovations have expanded capacity, while alternative distribution methods have multiplied. In FCC v. Fox Television Stations Inc., Justice Clarence Thomas noted that “dramatic technological advances” had “eviscerated the factual assumptions underlying” previous decisions that upheld broadcast regulation.

Consumers have more than 200 streaming platforms from which to choose. Cable subscribership has dropped by more than 35% from its peak in 2010. Local broadcasters have suffered steep revenue declines due to reduced viewership and advertisers shifting toward targeted digital advertising. Local stations have lost their near-monopoly on providing “late-breaking” news, as consumers shift to apps, online sources, and social media.

The Market Power Paradox

Policymakers evaluating competition in video markets face a seeming paradox: there are many monopolies or near-monopolies, but also abundant competition. Local governments confer cable monopolies through franchise agreements. Local broadcasters operate in an oligopoly driven by broadcast licensing. “Big Tech” occupies a substantial portion of the streaming business. Nevertheless, consumers have numerous options to watch the same content delivered by competing services.

Economic theory suggests that evaluations of market power must focus on consumer choice rather than the specific technology delivering content. Even a cable company with a local monopoly has little power in the content delivery market, as evidenced by cord-cutting trends.

Research published in the American Economic Review found that broadcast-television ownership deregulation led to industry consolidation and increased profitability, primarily through cost savings, rather than at viewers’ expense. Consolidation had a slightly positive impact on viewership, suggesting larger broadcast groups could invest in better programming.

A Framework for Reform

A more coherent approach to media ownership would acknowledge that video distribution is now a unified market with multiple technologies to deliver content. Reform should include:

  • Assessing market power holistically, considering broadcast, cable, and streaming as segments of an integrated video-distribution market;
  • Replacing technology-specific rules with competition principles, including sunsetting legacy regulations tied to specific technologies;
  • Basing any ownership limitations on actual market share across all platforms;
  • Focusing on antitrust enforcement, rather than preemptive structural regulations; and
  • Recognizing how consumers actually substitute between different video services.

Moving toward comprehensive deregulation that treats similar services similarly, regardless of technology, would create a more efficient media marketplace that better serves consumers, while still addressing legitimate competition concerns. The key is to focus on how ownership affects actual market power and consumer welfare, rather than perpetuating artificial distinctions among delivery methods.

The potential benefits are significant: a media landscape where competition is waged on a level playing field and where consumers, not regulatory distinctions, determine which services succeed.

For more on this issue, see the Truth on the Market post “Media-Ownership Regulations in a Streaming World: Time to Change the Channel.”

The Law & Economics of Online Age Verification and Parental Consent: Device-Filtering Edition

As patient observers continue to await the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton, which many hope will clarify the constitutionality of online age-verification regulations, . . .

As patient observers continue to await the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton, which many hope will clarify the constitutionality of online age-verification regulations, the debate over how to best protect children online, given the strictures of the First Amendment, continues to evolve.

While several states have attempted to impose age-verification requirements on social-media and online pornography sites and apps, courts have (with only rare exceptionslargely rebuffed these attempts under applicable Supreme Court precedent. Some states and federal legislators have also proposed app-store verification, which—while somewhat different—presents the same fundamental issues.

The more recent move has been toward device-level age verification and parental consent, with filtering technology automatically enabled by default. These so-called device-filtering bills are popping up in states around the nation and have received some support at the national level. Indeed, one such bill, Idaho’s SB 1158, is up for consideration this morning before that state’s Senate State Affairs Committee.

In this post, I will consider whether a device-level approach is less restrictive than imposing age verification and parental consent at the content or app-store level. To skip to the conclusion: while laws aimed at limiting access to online pornography stand a better chance than those that would limit access to all online speech, device-filtering mandates do not appear to be the lowest-cost (or least-restrictive) way to deal with the problems of child protection online, given the tools readily available in the marketplace.

Read the full piece here.

Is Brazil’s Digital Markets Proposal Based on Genuine Consensus or Unproven Narrative?

Apopular narrative has emerged in Brazil in recent years about the  “genuine consensus” supporting the need for more stringent regulation of digital markets. This narrative . . .

Apopular narrative has emerged in Brazil in recent years about the  “genuine consensus” supporting the need for more stringent regulation of digital markets. This narrative has been fueled by a growing number of cases of alleged anticompetitive conduct by so-called “global mega-corporations,” including the Mercado Livre/Apple case and the more recent Meta/Apple case. The perceived urgency to act is, however, largely built on speculative assumptions, rather than solid evidence.

While proponents argue that ex-ante regulations are needed to curb monopolistic behaviors and ensure fair competition in digital markets, a closer examination reveals this narrative to rest on largely unproven empirical claims of market failure and consumer harm. Before adopting untested regulatory frameworks, Brazil must critically assess whether the proposed measures would mark a genuine improvement, or merely a solution in search of a problem.

Read the full piece here.

Credit-Card Price Controls Are Counter Productive

U.S. Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) have introduced legislation that would cap credit-card interest rates at 10%, with the claim that it . . .

U.S. Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) have introduced legislation that would cap credit-card interest rates at 10%, with the claim that it would help poorer Americans. Unfortunately, both economic theory and centuries of evidence demonstrate that the effect would be quite the opposite.

Read the full piece here.

Who’s to Blame for High Egg Prices? Ask the Economists.

Americans are experiencing serious sticker shock when it comes to the price of eggs, which in some markets has more than tripled. That is, when they . . .

Americans are experiencing serious sticker shock when it comes to the price of eggs, which in some markets has more than tripled. That is, when they can get eggs at all. Empty shelves and store-imposed purchase limits have also left shoppers frustrated and looking for someone to blame.

Digital Platforms Aren’t Telecoms and Their Regulations Shouldn’t Rhyme

Modern tech markets share several key economic characteristics with the telecommunications markets of the recent past, a new working paper from Georgetown Law’s Jonathan Nuechterlein and Howard . . .

Modern tech markets share several key economic characteristics with the telecommunications markets of the recent past, a new working paper from Georgetown Law’s Jonathan Nuechterlein and Howard Shelanski argues. And while telecom regulators have over the years sought to address these key issues of network effects, economies of scale, and switching costs through various interventions, the paper notes that not all of these approaches were successful.

As former officials at the Federal Communications Commission and the Federal Trade Commission (Nuechterlein served as the FTC’s general counsel and as deputy general counsel for the FCC, while Shelanski was the FCC’s chief economist and director of the FTC’s Bureau of Economics), the pair thoughtfully examine how past regulatory experiences in telecom might inform today’s debates about regulating digital platforms. The working paper suggests that policymakers should carefully weigh the costs and benefits of similar interventions in tech markets, recognizing both the parallels and the differences between these sectors.

Read the full piece here.

Mercados Digitais: Proposta de Regulação é Baseada em Consenso Genuíno ou Narrativa Não Comprovada?

No Brasil, formou-se aparentemente um consenso em torno da necessidade de uma regulação concorrencial rigorosa dos mercados digitais, impulsionado pelo crescente número de casos de . . .

No Brasil, formou-se aparentemente um consenso em torno da necessidade de uma regulação concorrencial rigorosa dos mercados digitais, impulsionado pelo crescente número de casos de supostas condutas anticompetitivas por parte de “megacorporações globais”, como o caso Mercado Livre/Apple e Meta/Apple no Cade.

Read the full piece here.

US-UK Trade Agreement Has Big Pro-Growth Potential

A prospective trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom could, if handled correctly, be a catalyst to spur global economic growth through . . .

A prospective trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom could, if handled correctly, be a catalyst to spur global economic growth through enhanced trade and regulatory reform. This would require recognition by other major trading nations of the advantages of removing regulatory obstacles to trade liberalization.

Read the full piece here.

Can Antitrust Promote Competitiveness?

The major Western industrialized nations have experienced dramatically slower economic growth in recent decades. This slowdown has been particularly pronounced in the EU, though the United States . . .

The major Western industrialized nations have experienced dramatically slower economic growth in recent decades. This slowdown has been particularly pronounced in the EU, though the United States has suffered, as well. Regulatory, tax, trade, and energy policy reforms that reduce market distortions and provide incentives for investment, production, and innovation could substantially address this problem.

Recalibrating antitrust law (called competition law overseas) in a manner that promotes the competitiveness of the market economy is also part of the solution. Care must be taken, however, to focus on antitrust reforms that spur growth and innovation, not changes that undermine an efficient competitive process.

Read the full piece here.

Beyond Market Definition: Key Economic Concepts in FTC v Amazon

The Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) antitrust suit against Amazon, originally filed in October 2023, is scheduled for trial in October 2026. While we’ve previously explored the market-definition questions at . . .

The Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) antitrust suit against Amazon, originally filed in October 2023, is scheduled for trial in October 2026. While we’ve previously explored the market-definition questions at the center of this case, several other economic concepts will be equally important in determining whether Amazon has violated antitrust laws.

Ahead of a scheduled March 7 “economics day” hearing before the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington, both sides have filed statements outlining their views on the economic concepts that will be central to the case, providing a fascinating window into what will ultimately be a battle of economic theories when the case moves to trial. The FTC focuses on Amazon’s alleged exclusionary tactics that the commission contends prevent rivals from scaling and competing effectively. For its part, Amazon stresses that its business practices represent competition on the merits that benefit consumers through lower prices and better service.

In this post, we hope to offer interested observers a roadmap to the economic issues at play. We will explain the core economic concepts (beyond market definition) that will shape the case and the nature of the disagreement between the parties.

Read the full piece here.

World Health Organization Withdrawal: Right Concerns, Risky Remedy

On his first day back in the Oval Office, President Donald Trump wasted no time in reviving one of his most controversial foreign policy stances: initiating the withdrawal of the...

On his first day back in the Oval Office, President Donald Trump wasted no time in reviving one of his most controversial foreign policy stances: initiating the withdrawal of the United States from the World Health Organization (WHO). The executive order he signed cites the WHO’s flawed COVID-19 response, its failure to reform, its alleged political biases, and disproportionate demands on American taxpayers. The directive also pauses U.S. funding, calls for U.S. personnel to pull out of WHO programs, and proposes forming new partnerships to replace the WHO’s work.

While the WHO’s glaring failures warrant serious scrutiny, withdrawing the United States outright may do more harm than good, unless the administration undertakes a much-needed overhaul of global health governance. The withdrawal would take effect in January 2026, and Trump has hinted that the U.S. could remain in or rejoin the health agency if reforms are undertaken. The WHO has lost its way in recent decades. Originally formed in 1948 to battle scourges like smallpox and cholera, the organization initially delivered major successes in outbreak containment and disease eradication. Over time, however, it has shifted its ambitions beyond infectious diseases, seeking more funding through special programs that appeal to wealthy donors—such as initiatives around climate change, to fight obesity, and to study the radiation risks of cellphones, to name a few.

Lutnick’s BEAD Pivot: Progress Through Pragmatism

The U.S. Commerce Department plans to revamp the $42 billion Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program with a shift toward a more technology-neutral approach, . . .

The U.S. Commerce Department plans to revamp the $42 billion Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program with a shift toward a more technology-neutral approach, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced yesterday, adding that his department is also exploring ways to cut the program’s red tape.

Lutnick’s announcement follows criticisms of BEAD’s initial focus on fiber-optic deployment, which some argue neglects the potential of other technologies like satellite and fixed wireless to extend broadband connectivity, particularly in rural areas. Lutnick pledged that the department—which includes the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA), which oversees the BEAD program—would be “ripping out the Biden administration’s pointless requirements” and “revamping the BEAD program to take a tech-neutral approach that is rigorously driven by outcomes so that states can provide internet access for the lowest cost.” He also emphasized streamlining infrastructure construction.

The announcement comes amid Republican pressure to ease BEAD’s regulations, with House Energy and Commerce Communications and Technology Subcommittee Chairman Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) introducing the SPEED for BEAD Act to eliminate “unnecessary and expensive regulations.”

Read the full piece here.

Media Ownership Regulations in a Streaming World: Time to Change the Channel

Today’s media landscape bears little resemblance to the one that existed when most existing broadcast and cable regulations were created. While consumers increasingly access video . . .

Today’s media landscape bears little resemblance to the one that existed when most existing broadcast and cable regulations were created. While consumers increasingly access video content through streaming platforms subject to minimal oversight, legacy media providers continue to operate under restrictive regulatory frameworks designed for a bygone era. This regulatory asymmetry creates economic inefficiencies and distorts competition. It’s like making a basketball team play in old-school Converse All-Stars while letting a new team wear whatever shoe they want.

This post examines how technological convergence and consumer choice have rendered traditional media ownership regulations obsolete, and proposes a more coherent regulatory approach based on how the market actually operates, rather than how content is delivered. By establishing technology-neutral competition principles, policymakers can create a more efficient media marketplace, while still addressing legitimate concerns about market concentration.

Read the full piece here.

Avoiding Misguided Remedies in the Google Search Antitrust Case

In his August 2024 ruling in the Google Search antitrust litigation, U.S. District Court Judge Amit Mehta found that Google’s default-distribution agreements—through which the company paid Apple, Mozilla, . . .

In his August 2024 ruling in the Google Search antitrust litigation, U.S. District Court Judge Amit Mehta found that Google’s default-distribution agreements—through which the company paid Apple, Mozilla, and others to make Google the preloaded search engine—were exclusionary under Section 2 of the Sherman Act. The court’s rationale focused on “default bias” and scale effects; by securing key default placements, Google purportedly obtained an insurmountable advantage from users’ reluctance to switch away from the default provider, the effect of which was to deny rivals the user data necessary to refine their own search engines, making it significantly harder for them to catch up.

Attention now turns to remedies. Under former President Joe Biden, U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) leadership advocated aggressive measures: banning Google from paying for default status, restricting its forays into artificial intelligence (AI), mandating data sharing with rivals, and even breaking off Google’s Chrome browser.

But the current DOJ leadership under President Donald Trump should not replicate their predecessors’ overreach. Rather, they should adopt more carefully tailored remedies that address any exclusionary effects, without harming broader innovation or saddling the court with the role of market designer.

The Biden DOJ’s proposed remedies fail to meet antitrust’s requirement of a tight causal connection between offense and relief, and risk imposing significant costs. The new DOJ should consider narrower solutions—like limiting exclusive terms—rather than imposing risky structural or behavioral fixes that could jeopardize browser competition, chill AI investment, and create more problems than they solve.

Read the full piece here

COMMENTS & STATEMENTS

ICLE Statement on Anticipated Facebook Marketplace Decision

BRUSSELS (March 27, 2025) – The International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) offers the following statement on the anticipated European Commission decision to fine . . .

BRUSSELS (March 27, 2025) – The International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) offers the following statement on the anticipated European Commission decision to fine Meta for failing to comply with antitrust rules under the Digital Markets Act (DMA).

The following quote can be attributed to ICLE Director of Competition Policy Dirk Auer:

The Commission is trying to shift the Facebook platform to a contextual advertising business model that has repeatedly failed in the marketplace. Targeted ads ensure that users are shown only those products they are most likely to care about, leading to increased ad conversion, platform revenue, user satisfaction and, ultimately, investment in online services. By breaking this flywheel, the Commission is merely ensuring its citizens will receive second-rate online services, while European startups pay higher prices to effectively advertise online. It is self-harm that could easily have been avoided.

To schedule an interview with Dirk, contact Jim Fellinger at [email protected].

See additional relevant resources from ICLE scholars:

ICLE Comments to OSTP on Development of an AI Action Plan

Introduction The International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) appreciates the opportunity to respond to this request for information regarding the development of an AI . . .

Introduction

The International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) appreciates the opportunity to respond to this request for information regarding the development of an AI Action Plan. ICLE is a nonprofit, non-partisan research organization that promotes the use of law & economics methodology to advance policy solutions that foster innovation, competition, and economic growth.

We note the significant policy shift marked by Executive Order 14179 (“Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence”), signed Jan. 23, 2025, which revoked the previous administration’s AI Executive Order.[1] The new directive underscores the importance of developing a regulatory framework that balances sustaining the United States’ leadership in AI innovation with the responsible management of potential risks.

Crafting such a framework presents urgent yet nuanced challenges. Policymakers must carefully calibrate regulations to encourage technological advancement and economic competitiveness without imposing unnecessary burdens that might stifle innovation or impede the dynamic growth of the AI sector. Our comments aim to provide a balanced, evidence-based approach to navigating these critical regulatory considerations.

I. Defining AI and Regulatory Scope

The development of an effective AI Action Plan requires careful consideration of how to define artificial intelligence. Crafting an appropriate definition of AI for regulatory purposes is complicated by the heterogeneous nature of AI technologies and the importance of avoiding regulatory fragmentation—both across the federal government’s various agencies as well as among the states—that could undermine the United States’ competitive position in AI development.

A.  What Even Is ‘AI’?

At root, defining AI as a single phenomenon presents significant conceptual and practical difficulties for regulatory frameworks. Unfortunately, international regulatory efforts like the EU’s AI Act,[2] as well as domestic U.S. regulatory proposals,[3] frequently fail to appreciate this reality.

Thinking of AI in overly broad terms risks creating definitions that do not adequately reflect the heterogeneity of AI systems.[4] This means potentially imposing premature and disproportionate obligations on businesses and stifling innovation at a critical stage of development. An overly broad definitional approach is likely to be analytically flawed and counterproductive, as it would fail to distinguish between high-risk AI applications with significant consumer impact and low-risk routine uses designed to improve business efficiency.[5] Such broad definitions can also unintentionally distort competition by favoring incumbent firms capable of bearing large compliance costs.

The heterogeneity of AI technologies calls for regulatory approaches that recognize substantive differences among, e.g., large language models (LLMs), computer-vision systems, reinforcement-learning applications, and predictive-analytics tools. Each presents distinct regulatory challenges that would not be addressed adequately by a universal regulatory definition.

The danger of regulatory imprecision in this context cannot be overstated. When regulatory frameworks treat diverse technological applications as functionally equivalent, they inevitably produce inefficient and potentially counterproductive results. Overly broad definitions risk sweeping conventional software applications into the ambit of AI-specific regulations, potentially subjecting them to requirements ill-suited for their actual functionality and risk profiles. Conversely, narrowly tailored definitions that focus exclusively on specific AI implementations may fail to address novel applications or hybrid systems that do not fit neatly into predefined categories.

This definitional challenge is further complicated by the emerging patchwork of state and local AI regulations that has emerged in the absence of federal guidance. Developers and deployers of AI systems who operate across jurisdictional boundaries face substantial compliance challenges as a result of this regulatory fragmentation. The proliferation of potentially conflicting state regulations also creates significant legal uncertainty that disproportionately burdens smaller innovators and startups, as these entities often lack the resources to navigate complex regulatory environments. This has the potential to further entrench the market positions of larger incumbents.

B. Regulating AI to Protect Consumers and Promote Innovation

To address the foregoing definitional and jurisdictional challenges, the AI Action Plan should adopt a taxonomic approach to AI regulation that acknowledges the distinct characteristics and risk profiles of different AI domains. Critical questions remain regarding the specific nature of potential harms associated with these technologies. Among them, policymakers must clearly distinguish whether the principal concerns arise primarily from autonomous system behavior—similar to the issues raised by automated high-frequency trading[6]—or whether they stem primarily from malicious actors using AI tools to enhance their ability to break existing laws. In practice, these risks may coexist, requiring nuanced assessments.[7] This distinction is far from academic. Regulatory considerations differ significantly depending on the AI application’s domain, whether it be autonomous vehicles, financial algorithmic trading, creative content generation, autonomous weapons, or predictive policing systems.

As part of this approach, the AI Action Plan should establish clear federal guidelines that preempt contradictory state and local regulations, while setting minimum transparency standards appropriate to each category of AI application.[8] The goal of such standards should be to protect consumers without imposing excessive compliance burdens that might stifle innovation. The aim should be to foster functional markets where customers can access the services they demand, not to initiate a new cottage industry for AI compliance lawyers.

Beyond transparency and preemption, the most effective regulatory regime for AI would adopt a harm-focused, incremental approach. Rather than erect burdensome new regulatory apparatuses, the goal should be to identify and address specific regulatory gaps that AI technologies could potentially exploit. An effective AI-governance strategy demands flexibility and adaptability, allowing regulatory frameworks to evolve organically in response to technological advancements and changing consumer needs. Policymakers should therefore adopt a dynamic, context-specific approach that seeks to address tangible, demonstrable harms without hindering experimentation or innovation.

Maintaining proper balance is essential to this strategy. AI regulation must not disproportionately emphasize risk mitigation to the exclusion of acknowledging and fostering AI’s substantial potential benefits. Regulatory responses should be grounded in empirical assessments of tangible harms, while remaining mindful of the inherent complexities of risk assessment. As Aaron and Adam Wildavsky highlight, perceptions of technological risks—even among experts—vary significantly and are not strictly correlated with a given party’s familiarity with actual hazards.[9] Even well-informed observers of AI and AI-related technologies “disagree[] significantly over how to interpret evidence, the relevance of speculative risks, and even the basic framing of AI-related threats.”[10]

Given these realities, policymakers should ensure their frameworks remain flexible, empirically informed, and responsive to evolving evidence. This approach would help to avoid regulatory overreach based on speculative or subjective assessments of AI’s dangers, while continuing to provide appropriate safeguards where needed. Alternatively, a proportionate, risk-based framework that scales regulatory requirements according to actual risk and application context could also effectively balance innovation with necessary safeguards.[11]

Ideally, AI regulation should be directly responsive to empirically observed harms. The National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) previously developed a framework emphasizing the concept of marginal risks—those additional risks specifically attributable to the unique features of widely available foundation models, relative to closed models or non-AI alternatives.[12] The NTIA framework’s strength lies in its empirical grounding, as it focused explicitly on the observable differences between open and closed AI models, as well as between AI and comparable non-AI technologies. By emphasizing concrete, empirically measurable factors that affect adoption, usage, and actual harms, the NTIA approach effectively avoids speculative, overly broad ex-ante regulatory interventions. Additionally, the NTIA framework realistically acknowledges inherent measurement challenges and uncertainties, cautioning policymakers to remain modest in their expectations regarding ex-ante risk assessments.

Such a framework would reserve heightened scrutiny for genuinely high-risk applications in sensitive domains such as healthcare, criminal justice, and critical infrastructure, while establishing regulatory safe harbors for good-faith AI development and deployment efforts that adhere to recognized best practices and standards. By crafting definitions and regulatory frameworks that acknowledge the heterogeneity of AI technologies, while also establishing federal preemption to prevent regulatory fragmentation, the AI Action Plan can foster an environment conducive to continued American leadership in AI innovation, while ensuring appropriate safeguards for critical concerns.

C. Factor Open Source into Regulatory Considerations

Discussions about AI regulation often focus exclusively on proprietary, commercial-end products, such as foundation models and highly visible consumer-oriented applications. This narrow focus, however, overlooks the crucial role of open-source software development within the broader AI technological ecosystem. Open-source methodologies underpin much of the AI stack and contribute significantly to innovation and competition.[13] Unlike proprietary AI systems developed by established firms, open-source AI emerges organically through distributed networks of developers, making traditional regulatory approaches—often predicated on centralized corporate structures—potentially inappropriate or counterproductive.

The complexity of AI technology extends across multiple interconnected layers that often run on open-source projects—each posing distinct regulatory considerations. At the foundational level lies hardware infrastructure, including semiconductors, computing power, and “XaaS” (everything-as-a-service) offerings that provide virtual-computing resources.[14] Above this is the data layer, encompassing collection, curation, and preparation processes that significantly influence an AI system’s quality and effectiveness.[15] The subsequent model-training layer involves diverse methodologies such as supervised, unsupervised, reinforcement, and transfer-learning techniques.[16] Finally, the deployment layer comprises various operational environments, ranging from cloud-based platforms to edge devices and on-premises systems.

Given this multi-layered ecosystem, regulations designed with assumptions suited to proprietary, corporate-controlled products may inadvertently disadvantage open-source innovation. Blanket requirements for data access, security, and compliance—while they may be appropriate for centralized entities—could unintentionally suppress open-source initiatives by imposing disproportionate burdens and risks. Restrictions that make it more difficult to develop, modify, or distribute open-source AI models could inadvertently shift AI innovation toward proprietary, closed models controlled by large incumbents, thereby reducing market diversity and innovation.

Moreover, restrictive regulations could hinder the broader social and economic benefits derived from open-source AI, threatening to render the United States less competitive globally.[17] Open-source models enable widespread experimentation and collaborative development, thereby contributing significantly to technological innovation, academic research, and overall productivity growth.[18] Moreover, open-source communities inherently foster adaptive and nuanced self-regulatory practices.[19]

II. AI and Copyright

The intersection of AI and intellectual-property law presents complex legal questions that the AI Action Plan must thoughtfully address to foster innovation, while safeguarding creators’ interests. Copyright protection fundamentally rests on a utilitarian economic premise: by conferring exclusive rights to creators, society generates greater long-term welfare through the stimulation of creative production.[20] This justification recognizes that creative works have the inherent characteristics of public goods; specifically, they are non-excludable (it is difficult to prevent unauthorized consumption) and non-rivalrous (consumption by one does not diminish availability to others). Absent legal protection for creators, these characteristics would lead to market failure through underproduction, as creators would face diminished incentives once their works could be freely reproduced without compensation, thereby reducing expected returns on creative investment.

Consequently, copyright protection inherently confers on copyright holders the right to restrict others’ use of protected materials, even if such use is arguably a net benefit for society. Recognizing this potential, copyright doctrine incorporates countervailing mechanisms—such as limited duration and fair-use exceptions—that function as pressure-release valves for compelling public-interest considerations. The fundamental tension in copyright law emerges from the simultaneous imperatives to ensure compensation for creators, while facilitating public access to and use of creative works, thereby realizing the broader social benefits of cultural and technological advancement.

Efforts to seek equilibrium in this complex system can be analogized to hydraulics. Much as pressure applied to fluid in one chamber necessitates compensatory movement elsewhere in a hydraulic system, the strengthening of creator rights in one domain often requires corresponding flexibility in another to maintain the copyright system’s balance. Adjustments to any component of this interdependent system inevitably generate ripple effects throughout the broader copyright ecosystem.

The hydraulic nature of copyright incentives is particularly salient in the context of technologies like artificial intelligence, which fundamentally challenge established frameworks. Altering how copyright functions at the input stage of AI training—by liberalizing or constraining access to the corpus of available training materials—may require changes to creators’ property rights at the output stage, in order to preserve the system’s overall balance. Further, permitting the use of copyrighted works for AI-model training could potentially alter creator incentives in the long term. At the same time, granting rightsholders absolute veto power over such uses might disproportionately impede AI developers’ ability to construct effective and socially beneficial systems.

A. The Law & Economics of AI Training and Fair Use[21]

A foundational principle in copyright jurisprudence is the idea-expression dichotomy, whereby protection extends exclusively to a particular expression of an idea, rather than to the underlying idea itself.[22] Alternative articulations of the same concept typically do not constitute infringement under established copyright doctrine. Within this framework, the fair-use doctrine potentially provides a legal pathway for AI developers to incorporate copyrighted materials as training inputs for their models.

The applicability of fair use in this context does, however, remain subject to substantial dispute.[23] Various well-reasoned arguments have been advanced that forward radically different interpretations of how traditional copyright principles do or should apply to AI training. This interpretive uncertainty suggests that AI training represents a genuinely sui generis phenomenon that challenges conventional doctrinal boundaries and may require changes to intellectual-property law in order to resolve the tensions between AI innovation and copyright protection. This presents practical problems when trying to imagine how to facilitate both AI training and remuneration to creators.

For example, the imposition of individualized licensing requirements for copyrighted materials used in AI training likely presents insurmountable practical impediments and prohibitive transaction costs.[24] Contemporary large-scale AI models typically incorporate billions of inputs gathered from across the digital ecosystem. The negotiation of discrete licenses for each copyrighted work—or comprehensive agreements with each rightsholder—within such expansive corpora would require an extraordinary volume of transactions, potentially numbering in the millions.[25] The administrative burdens inherent in such a process would likely render comprehensive licensing functionally impossible at the requisite scale for effective AI development.[26]

Given the impracticality of per-work licensing mechanisms, scholars have explored collective-licensing frameworks as a potential alternative.[27] This approach envisions a centralized entity functioning as a clearinghouse to negotiate comprehensive licenses on behalf of substantial rightsholder constituencies, analogous to the operational model of music performing-rights organizations. The primary advantage offered by such collective-licensing arrangements lies in their capacity to substantially reduce transaction costs through rights aggregation.[28] Conceptually, this methodology could enhance the accessibility and economic feasibility of training data acquisition.[29] Nevertheless, formidable obstacles would persist in implementing such a system.

Foremost among these challenges is the problem of incomplete participation; not all content proprietors would necessarily affiliate with collective-licensing entities, resulting in significant coverage disparities.[30] The sources constituting AI-training datasets exhibit extraordinary diversity and dispersion; consequently, a collective-licensing regime might encompass only certain categories of creative works—such as those under the control of major publishing houses or contained within established image repositories—while overlooking independent creators who lack institutional representation.[31]

Further, a considerable proportion of internet content needed for AI-model training remains outside the purview of such administrative frameworks. AI developers would encounter significant difficulties in identifying all relevant rightsholders with whom licensing agreements would be obligatory. Even assuming these independent creators could be successfully identified, the aforementioned transaction costs would prove prohibitively burdensome. This would likely result in diminished AI-model capabilities due to input constraints. Alternatively, such models might be compelled to rely predominantly or exclusively on synthetic data, potentially compromising model quality and performance.[32]

When considering limits on AI-training data, we must also acknowledge the importance of dataset diversity to prevent algorithmic bias. A system in which only commercially licensed content is available for training could produce AI models that disproportionately reflect perspectives from entities with market presence or established licensing frameworks. This would likely create systems with significant blind spots, particularly regarding independent creators and noncommercial knowledge sources.

1. What is the value of content for models?

If the value of creative works to AI-model training fundamentally cannot be assigned at the input stage, this would severely restrict the development of efficient licensing markets for AI training data. Beyond the question of transaction costs, two principal complications emerge when focusing on input-licensing markets: the negligible marginal value of individual works within extensive training datasets and the methodological challenges of value attribution. No established framework exists for calculating the monetary contribution of specific works as AI training inputs, rendering the process of determining fair compensation inherently fraught.

The U.S. Copyright Office has reached a similar conclusion: the incorporation of millions or billions of works into foundation models necessarily attenuates the influence of any individual copyrighted work to such a degree that even minimal transaction costs associated with licensing negotiations would invariably exceed that work’s proportional contribution to the model’s utility.[33] While there are certainly qualitative distinctions among training-data elements, they are, at most, only relative. For instance, the collected works of Isaac Asimov represent an undeniably significant contribution to English-language literature; nevertheless, they constitute only a tiny fraction of the English-language corpus. Even exceptionally valuable literary properties would command only nominal compensation in the context of an extensive training dataset. This fundamental reality renders conventional valuation methodologies impracticable; a simple calculation that applies a standardized per-work fee across millions of works would inevitably yield a result fundamentally disconnected from each work’s actual impact on model performance.

A principal factor complicating valuation efforts is the monetization structure of generative AI, which manifests predominantly at the output stage, rather than during data ingestion. Training data is neither directly commercialized nor consumed; instead, economic value materializes when the model generates outputs—whether textual, visual, or otherwise—for which users demonstrate willingness to pay, or which facilitate commercial applications. The contribution of any specific training example remains indirect and inextricably intermingled with innumerable others.

Consequently, absent methodologies to establish causal connections between generated content and specific elements within training datasets (assuming such a thing is possible), any attempt to assign monetary valuations to individual training components inevitably relies on highly speculative assumptions. For the majority of discrete works, particularly those created by independent producers distributed throughout the digital ecosystem, no established market rate exists for “AI-training use.” The value proposition is inherently context-dependent and, on a per-work basis, typically de minimis.

B. Moral Rights and Attribution in AI Outputs

A better approach would focus on addressing copyright concerns at the output stage, rather than imposing restrictive controls at the input level. Given that AI-generated outputs may strongly evoke copyrighted inputs,[34] policymakers should explore legal frameworks that ensure creators have meaningful control and compensation rights. Emphasizing output-based protections, rather than strict input constraints, would strike a balanced approach by accommodating AI’s significant potential for innovation, while safeguarding creators’ legitimate interests.

Existing legal concepts like the common-law “right of publicity” may offer useful analogies.[35] Many states already provide legal protection against unauthorized commercial exploitation of an individual’s identity, likeness, or voice. Policymakers should consider adapting these standards explicitly for AI contexts, ensuring individuals would retain adequate control over their unique personal attributes when reflected in AI-generated outputs. Such adaptations would extend rights akin to existing publicity standards, granting individuals enforceable claims against unauthorized, substantially similar AI reproductions of their likeness or distinctive style.

Given these dynamics, the AI Action Plan should actively explore new compensation models that leverage outputs, rather than inputs. One promising direction involves reforming the current patchwork moral-rights system in the United States. As recognized by the U.S. Copyright Office, the existing fragmented landscape—where moral-rights protections are inconsistently applied through state laws and limited federal statutes such as the Visual Artists Rights Act (VARA)[36]—is inadequate to address attribution and integrity concerns in digital and AI-generated contexts.[37] Specifically, the Copyright Office identified significant gaps that are exacerbated by digital environments, particularly around the removal or manipulation of copyright-management information and attribution metadata.

Policymakers could explore changes, such as possible amendments to the Lanham Act, to restore and clarify attribution protections diminished by the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Dastar Corp. v. Twentieth Century Fox.[38] Additionally, there are currently a number of cases examining the use Section 1202 of Title 17 to address the intentional removal or altering of copyright-management information in digital and AI-generated contexts. These cases should be tracked closely, as they may reveal further needed changes to the copyright regime to both enable creators to assert attribution rights, while also demonstrating where existing copyright law frustrates large-scale training.[39]

Furthermore, achieving a balance between moral-rights protections and AI innovation would necessitate nuanced, sector-specific adjustments similar to those recommended for VARA. Moral rights should not be applied uniformly across all digital contexts; instead, nuanced legislative adjustments are needed to address unique challenges posed by generative AI without stifling innovation.

III. Conclusions and Recommendations

In developing the AI Action Plan, we recommend the following:

  • Establish clear, nuanced definitions of AI that recognize the internal heterogeneity of technologies and prevent fragmented regulatory approaches.
  • Prioritize empirically grounded, harm-focused regulatory frameworks over speculative, overly broad ex-ante
  • Ensure that federal standards provide transparency and clarity, preempting conflicting state and local regulations.
  • Foster an environment that supports both proprietary and open-source AI development, avoiding measures that inadvertently favor large incumbents.
  • Adjust intellectual-property frameworks—particularly copyright—to reflect AI’s unique characteristics, emphasizing balanced protections and output-based compensation.

By adopting these targeted measures, the AI Action Plan will effectively promote innovation, safeguard competition, and secure U.S. leadership in AI technologies.

[1] Exec. Order No. 14179, 90 F.R. 8741 (2025), https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02172/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence.

[2]  European Parliament Legislative Resolution of 13 March 2024 on the Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on Laying Down Harmonised Rules on Artificial Intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act) and Amending Certain Union Legislative Acts, COM/2021/206, Eur. Parliam. (Mar. 13, 2024), available at https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2024-0138_EN.html.

[3] See Kristian Stout & Subiksha Ramakrishnan, ICLE Comments to CPPA on ADMT Regulations, Int’l Ctr. L. & Econ. (2025), https://laweconcenter.org/resources/icle-comments-to-cppa-on-amdt-amendments; Kristian Stout, Biden’s AI Executive Order Sees Dangers Around Every Virtual Corner, Truth Mark. (Nov. 1, 2023), https://laweconcenter.org/resources/bidens-ai-executive-order-sees-dangers-around-every-virtual-corner.

[4] See Lazar Radic & Kristian Stout, What Is the Relevant Product Market in AI?, SSRN (2024), at 109, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4927505.

[5] Id. at 110.

[6] See Tom C.W. Lin, The New Investor, 60 UCLA L. Rev. 678 (2013).

[7] See, e.g., Josh Rosenberg et al., Roots of Disagreement on AI Risk: Exploring the Potential and Pitfalls of Adversarial Collaboration, Forecast. Res. Inst. (2024), at 15 (studying the rather large divergence of optimistic and pessimistic views among AI experts on the potential long-term harms associated with AI, and suggesting the need to carefully parse the distinction between immediate—but less dramatic—potential harms, and long-term but speculative existential risks).

[8] Recognizing the importance of the nascent commercial spaceflight industry, Congress enacted the Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004. Commercial Human Spaceflight Safety Regulations, Congr. Res. Serv. (last updated Feb. 5, 2025), available at https://sgp.fas.org/crs/space/IF12508.pdf (“For launch and reentry regulations, the Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004 set a statutory moratorium of eight years (the learning period) before the FAA could promulgate commercial human spaceflight regulations, beyond its statuary authorities described below. The learning period moratorium was intended to allow the nascent commercial spaceflight industry to develop without potential regulatory burdens.”).

[9] See Aaron Wildavsky & Adam Wildavsky, Risk and Safety, Econlib, https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/RiskandSafety.html (last visited Mar. 13, 2025).

[10] Rosenberg et al., supra note 7, at 5.

[11] See Kristian Stout et al.NIST AI 800-I, Managing Misuse Risk for Dual-Use Foundation Models, Int’l Ctr. L. & Econ. (2024), at 8-13, available at https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/NIST-AI-comments-final.pdf.

[12] See Dual-Use Foundation Models with Widely Available Model Weights, Nat’l Telecomm. Info. Admin., available at https://www.ntia.doc.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ntia-ai-open-model-report.pdf, at 2 (last visited Mar. 13, 2025).

[13] Alex Engler, How Open-Source Software Shapes AI Policy, Brookings Inst. (Aug. 10, 2021), https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-open-source-software-shapes-ai-policy.

[14] Romit Dey & George Korizis, How Anything-As-A-Service (XaaS) Can Help Reinvent Business Models and Transform Outcomes Across Industries, PricewaterhouseCoopers, https://www.pwc.com/us/en/services/consulting/business-transformation/library/use-xaas-to-reinvent-business-models.html (last visited Mar. 13, 2025).

[15] See, e.g., Structured vs Unstructured Data, IBM (Jun. 29, 2021), https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/structured-vs-unstructured-data; Dongdong Zhang et al., Combining Structured and Unstructured Data for Predictive Models: A Deep Learning Approach, BMC Med. Informatics Dec. Making 280 (2020), https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12911-020-01297-6 (describing generally the use of both structured and unstructured data in predictive models for health care).

[16] Anil Ananthaswamy, Why Machines Learn: The Elegant Math Behind Modern Ai (2024), at 12-13.

[17] See, e.g., Michael Chui, et al., The Economic Potential Of Generative AI: The Next Productivity Frontier, McKinsey Digital (2023), https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier (“Generative AI’s impact on productivity could add trillions of dollars in value to the global economy. Our latest research estimates that generative AI could add the equivalent of $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion annually across the 63 use cases we analyzed—by comparison, the United Kingdom’s entire GDP in 2021 was $3.1 trillion. This would increase the impact of all artificial intelligence by 15 to 40 percent. This estimate would roughly double if we include the impact of embedding generative AI into software that is currently used for other tasks beyond those use cases”); Generative AI Could Raise Global GDP by 7%, Goldman Sachs (Apr. 5, 2023), https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent (“As tools using advances in natural language processing work their way into businesses and society, they could drive a 7% (or almost $7 trillion) increase in global GDP and lift productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period”).

[18] Miguel A. Cardona et al., Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Teaching and Learning, U.S. Dept. of Educ., https://www2.ed.gov/documents/ai-report/ai-report.pdf (last visited Mar. 13, 2025).

[19] See, e.g., Hugging Face, GPT-4chan, https://huggingface.co/ykilcher/gpt-4chan (last visited Mar. 13, 2025).

[20] For more on the economics of copyright, see Brent Luches, Introduction 1-3, in Identifying Economic Implications of Artificial Intelligence for Copyright Policy (U.S. Copyr. Off., 2025), available at https://www.copyright.gov/economic-research/economic-implications-of-ai/Identifying-the-Economic-Implications-of-Artificial-Intelligence-for-Copyright-Policy-FINAL.pdf.

[21] This discussion is limited to “generative AI” such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Llama. Narrower applications of AI (both generative and non-generative)—e.g., medical-record scanning to create predictive models of disease—may or may not need access to similar sized data sets. And even within generative AI, the fair-use analysis can be complicated when the system being trained is meant to be a direct market-substitute for the material on which it is trained. See, e.g., Kristian Stout, AI Training Is Not Fair (According to One Court), Truth Mark. (Feb. 11, 2025), https://truthonthemarket.com/2025/02/11/ai-training-is-not-fair-according-to-one-court.

[22] See, generally, Baker v. Selden, 101 U.S. 99 (1879); Golan v. Holder, 565 U.S. 302 (2012).

[23] See, e.g., Kristian Stout, supra note 19 (discussing recent caselaw and the nuanced fair-use analysis in order to parse when AI training should and should not be considered “fair use.”); see also Kristian Stout, Geoffrey A. Manne, & Emily Corbeille, ICLE Comments on Artificial Intelligence and Copyright, Int’l Ctr. L. & Econ. (2025), https://laweconcenter.org/resources/icle-comments-on-artificial-intelligence-and-copyright.

[24] See Richard A. Posner, Economic Analysis of Law 42 (7th ed., 2007), (discussing the transaction costs involved with copyright as including the tracing costs of identifying the copyright holder and negotiation costs of negotiating the license with the copyright holder).

[25] See Jorge Padilla & Kadambari Prasad, Demystifying Licensing Debates: Should GenAI Developers Pay to Train Their Models on Copyright Protected Content?, Compass Lexecon (Feb. 25, 2025), https://www.compasslexecon.com/insights/publications/demystifying-licensing-debates-should-genai-developers-pay-to-train-their-models-on-copyright-protected-content.

[26] Id.

[27] Id.

[28] Id.

[29] Id.

[30] See Michael D. Smith & Rahul Telang, The Effect of AI Ingestion on Rightsholders’ Incentives 35-38, in Identifying the Economic Implications of Artificial Intelligence for Copyright Policy (U.S. Copyr. Off., 2025), available at https://www.copyright.gov/economic-research/economic-implications-of-ai/Identifying-the-Economic-Implications-of-Artificial-Intelligence-for-Copyright-Policy-FINAL.pdf (discussing the limitations of collective licensing for AI training).

[31] See id. at 37.

[32] See Maggie Harrison Dupre, When AI Is Trained on AI-Generated Data, Strange Things Start to Happen, Futurism (Aug. 2, 2023), https://futurism.com/ai-trained-ai-generated-data-interview.

[33] See Adam Jaffe, Controlling the Use of Copyrighted Materials in Training 50, in Identifying the Economic Implications of Artificial Intelligence for Copyright Policy (U.S. Copyr. Off., 2025), available at https://www.copyright.gov/economic-research/economic-implications-of-ai/Identifying-the-Economic-Implications-of-Artificial-Intelligence-for-Copyright-Policy-FINAL.pdf.

[34] Notably, if outputs actually duplicate existing works, it is likely they would already be found impermissible infringements under existing U.S. law.

[35] See Shane Greenstein, Commercial Exploitation of Name, Image, and Likeness 24-30, in Identifying the Economic Implications of Artificial Intelligence for Copyright Policy (U.S. Copyr. Off., 2025), available at https://www.copyright.gov/economic-research/economic-implications-of-ai/Identifying-the-Economic-Implications-of-Artificial-Intelligence-for-Copyright-Policy-FINAL.pdf.

[36] 17 U.S.C. § 106A(a).

[37] Authors, Attribution, and Integrity: Examining Moral Rights in the United States, U.S. Copyr. Off. (2019), at 59-60, https://www.copyright.gov/policy/moralrights.

[38] Id. at 42-54.

[39] See, e.g., Kadrey v. Meta Platforms Inc., 23-cv-03417-VC (N.D. Cal. Nov. 20, 2023)?; The Intercept Media Inc. v. OpenAI Inc., 24-cv-1515 (JSR) (S.D.N.Y. Nov. 21, 2024); Raw Story Media Inc. v. OpenAI Inc., 24 Civ. 01514 (S.D.N.Y. Nov. 7, 2024).

ICLE Statement on iRobot and the Consequences of Regulatory Overreach

PORTLAND, Ore. (March 12, 2025) – The International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) offers the following statement on iRobot Corp.—the consumer-robotics company that Amazon.com . . .

PORTLAND, Ore. (March 12, 2025) – The International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) offers the following statement on iRobot Corp.—the consumer-robotics company that Amazon.com once planned to buy for more than $1 billion—raising “substantial doubt” about its future in a news release earlier today. 

The following quote can be attributed to ICLE President Geoffrey A. Manne:

iRobot’s recent disclosure of ‘substantial doubt’ regarding its future is a stark illustration of the unintended consequences of overly aggressive antitrust enforcement. As many experts previously cautioned, the termination of the Amazon-iRobot merger following threats of antitrust intervention left the company in a precarious position. iRobot’s prior restructuring after the failed merger already deprived consumers of anticipated technological advancements. Now we learn it also left iRobot vulnerable in a challenging economic environment. The company’s current financial struggles highlight the risks of regulatory overreach, where well-intentioned interventions inadvertently stifle innovation and undermine the very competition they seek to protect. It is imperative that regulatory bodies carefully weigh the potential long-term effects of their decisions on both innovation and market stability.

To schedule an interview with Geoff, contact Jim Fellinger at [email protected].

See additional relevant resources from ICLE scholars:

Testimony of Geoffrey Manne & Eric Fruits to City of Portland Homelessness and Housing Committee

Re: Opposition to proposed ordinance amending the Affordable Housing Code to prohibit algorithmic pricing tools Thank you for the opportunity to provide testimony on the . . .

Re: Opposition to proposed ordinance amending the Affordable Housing Code to prohibit algorithmic pricing tools

Thank you for the opportunity to provide testimony on the proposed ordinance prohibiting the use of algorithmic pricing tools in Portland’s rental housing market. Geoffrey Manne is the President and Founder of the International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE), a nonpartisan nonprofit research organization based in Portland. Eric Fruits is a Senior Scholar and Economist at ICLE.

Our opposition is grounded in economic principles, antitrust law, and an understanding of how algorithmic tools function in competitive markets. We have recently written on the competitive effects of algorithmic pricing tools (“Trump Administration Has Opportunity to Chart a Better Course on AI,” attached) and submitted an amicus brief in Gibson v. Cendyn.

Key Concerns with the Proposed Ordinance

Mischaracterization of Algorithmic Pricing Tools

Algorithmic pricing tools are not inherently anticompetitive. They automate processes that landlords have historically performed manually, such as analyzing market conditions and setting rents. As emphasized in the amicus brief, automating lawful business practices does not transform them into unlawful activities. These tools provide recommendations based on publicly available data, and landlords retain full discretion to accept or reject these recommendations, preserving independent decision-making.

The ordinance conflates the use of these tools with price-fixing—a serious misunderstanding. Price-fixing requires an agreement among competitors to coordinate pricing, which is illegal under antitrust laws like the Sherman Act. However, merely using similar software does not constitute collusion. Courts have consistently held that independent decision-making, even when informed by shared data or tools, does not violate antitrust laws.

Economic Benefits of Algorithmic Pricing

Algorithmic pricing democratizes access to sophisticated market analysis, benefiting smaller landlords who lack resources for manual data analysis. This levels the playing field and fosters competition by enabling smaller players to compete effectively with larger property owners.

Moreover, as noted in the ICLE’s amicus brief, these tools generate significant economic efficiencies by improving capacity utilization, reducing transaction costs, and enabling rapid responses to market fluctuations. For tenants, this can translate into more stable housing markets over time. Without such tools, landlords may revert to outdated methods like arbitrary annual rent increases or gut instincts, leading to greater market distortions.

Flawed Assumptions About Rent Increases

The claim that algorithmic pricing universally inflates rents overlooks critical factors like housing supply shortages and local economic conditions. Studies have shown that rising rents are primarily driven by structural issues—such as restrictive zoning laws and insufficient housing construction—not by pricing algorithms. Penalizing landlords for using modern technology distracts from addressing these root causes.

Unintended Consequences

Prohibiting algorithmic tools could harm tenants in several ways:

  • Reduced Market Transparency: Without access to data-driven insights, landlords may revert to inefficient pricing strategies that worsen affordability issues.
  • Disincentives for Investment: The ordinance could discourage investment in Portland’s rental housing market, exacerbating the city’s housing
  • Legal Risks: The ordinance risks overstepping established antitrust principles by targeting lawful business This could expose the city to costly legal challenges.

Recommendations

Instead of banning algorithmic pricing tools outright, I urge the Committee to consider alternative approaches that address legitimate concerns while preserving the benefits these technologies offer:

  • Focus on Supply-Side Solutions: Addressing Portland’s housing affordability crisis requires increasing the supply of affordable and market-rate housing. Streamlining permitting processes and revisiting zoning restrictions would be more effective than banning technology.
  • Encourage Transparency: If transparency is a concern, encourage landlords who use algorithmic tools to disclose how rental prices are This approach promotes accountability without stifling innovation.
  • Target Actual Anticompetitive Behavior: Enforcement efforts should focus on explicit collusion or agreements among landlords—not on the mere use of shared software.

While well-intentioned, this ordinance risks undermining competition and innovation in Portland’s rental housing market without addressing the true drivers of unaffordability. When used appropriately, algorithmic pricing tools are valuable instruments for enhancing efficiency and fairness in competitive markets.

I urge the Committee to reject this ordinance and instead pursue policies that tackle Portland’s housing challenges at their core—by increasing supply and fostering competition.

LONG FORM WRITING

Regulatory Reconquista: Ex-Ante Regulation of Digital Platforms in Latin America

The rise of digital markets has kicked off public-policy debates around the globe premised on the assumption that such markets’ special characteristics pose unique . . .

Abstract

The rise of digital markets has kicked off public-policy debates around the globe premised on the assumption that such markets’ special characteristics pose unique challenges for antitrust enforcement. This has led several Latin American policymakers and agencies to consider the enactment of ex-ante regulation or “digital competition regulations” (DCRs) similar to the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA). Some Latin American agencies and policymakers (e.g., in Mexico and Brazil) are already well on their way toward exploring that path. This paper challenges the fundamental premise that digital markets require de novo approaches to competition law, and recommends that Latin American jurisdictions follow their own policy path based on the region’s market and political realities and challenges.

The introduction briefly explains how Latin American legislation—particularly competition laws—long have been inspired by European counterparts. It also describes the “power competition” among developed countries that creates incentives for European policymakers to seek to expand their regulatory sphere of influence—in the case of the EU pushing Latin America to adopt its path, this can fairly be described as a modern “Reconquista” of sorts.

Section 1 reviews public-policy reports on the digital economy in Latin America in order to identify any shortcomings or regulatory bottlenecks. It concludes that while competition in digital markets is important, insufficiently competitive digital markets are not among Latin America’s most urgent public-policy priorities. Indeed, Section 1B illustrates that the region’s digital markets are “reasonably competitive.” While some actors, such as Google and Microsoft, appear to enjoy large and durable market shares, which could indicate excess market power, other so-called “Big Tech” platforms have much smaller market shares and face significant competition. In fact, new actors are thriving in the e-commerce, FinTech, ride-hailing, and food-delivery markets. This suggests that barriers to entry are much lower than proponents of DCRs often make them out to be.

Moreover, as highlighted in Section 2A, digital markets generally do not exhibit the kind of “market failures” that warrant ex-ante regulation. They are not characterized by natural monopolies, significant negative externalities, public goods, or informational asymmetries. Section 2B explores arguments made by DCR proponents that antitrust law is too slow and cumbersome to address competition issues in digital markets. Section 2C analyzes a number of key cases, investigations, and advocacy reports produced by Latin American competition agencies, which demonstrate that much can be done to address purported competition problems by employing the procedures and remedies of traditional antitrust law (even if Latin American agencies have not actually done much).

Finally, Section 3 examines possible reforms of those policies that hinder Latin American firms and innovators from growing and creating more digital services and products. We conclude that Latin American entrepreneurs would benefit greatly from regulatory and licensing reform; greater incentives for private investment (especially in telecommunications infrastructure); elimination of legal barriers to entry; labor and tax reforms; the alleviation of unnecessary regulatory burdens; and better provision of public goods, such as infrastructure and education, in order to unleash the market’s talent and creativity.

Introduction

European law has long influenced legislation in Latin America. This was most obvious during the colonial era, when most countries were either Spanish, Portuguese, or French colonies, but the trend has continued long after the United States gained more economic and political influence in the region. Examples can be found in the civil codes of several Latin American countries that were approved in the late 1970s and early 1980. These codes were strongly influenced by Italy’s Codice Civile of 1942.[1]

In recent times, the growing influence of the European Union has manifested itself in various ways. One area where this has been most apparent is data privacy. The enactment of the EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in 2016 resulted in the proliferation of data-privacy laws across Latin America that were substantially similar to the GDPR,[2] even despite mounting evidence that the GDPR hindered venture-capital investment and increased market concentration in Europe.[3]

Competition law has not been immune to this influence. According to Alfonso Miranda, “the structure of EU competition law has been adopted by the legislations of the Latin-American countries and by the Andean Community of Nations – CAN.”[4] Likewise, Julián Peña explains that while the “economic reasoning” of U.S. antitrust law has had a major influence in Latin America, “most of the competition legal framework in Latin America during this period has been mainly influenced by the European model (e.g., Argentina, Brazil, and Peru), whether in substance (e.g., abuse of dominant position) or in the procedure.”[5] In Argentina, as German Coloma notes, Act 22,262 enacted in 1980, “implied a movement towards rules that were analogous to European standards, since Articles 1 and 2 of Act 22,262 were clearly inspired by Articles 85 and 86 of the Treaty of Rome.”[6]

Against this backdrop, there is a growing sense that European law is once again set to influence policy in Latin America, this time in digital-competition policy. Due to geopolitical considerations, the European Union is looking to increase its influence in the region (as well as the presence of its domestic firms) by imposing its regulatory model for the digital sphere.[7] This strategy can be seen as part of an unfolding “great power competition.”[8]

Unfortunately, there is reason to believe Europe’s digital regulations are not guided solely by concern for consumer welfare, and are instead crafted to promote the interests of European firms. There is, indeed, some indirect evidence of the protectionist motivations of the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA).[9] French President Emmanuel Macron declared in 2020: “If we want technological sovereignty, we’ll have to have to adapt our competition law, which has perhaps been too much focused solely on the consumer and not enough on defending European champions.”[10] As Meredith Broadbent has explained:

…the DMA threatens to impose heavy-handed antitrust measures and to exclusively levy punitive fines on large U.S. firms, while leaving other countries’ tech firms—namely European, Chinese, and perhaps Russian companies supplying essentially the same services—untouched. Europe’s success in assuming the role of global standards-setter in the area of privacy under the GDPR has energized Brussels, as it seeks further control over the business practices of successful U.S. companies.[11]

Despite this evidence, policymakers, regulators, and competition agencies around the world have in recent years rushed to introduce so-called “digital competition regulations” (DCRs),[12] inspired primarily by the DMA. Latin American policymakers and agencies are no exception.[13] The Andean Community (CAN), for instance, is considering specific regulations for digital markets. In late 2022, CAN General Secretary Jorge Hernando Pedraza declared:

We are sure that this initiative will strengthen the specialized knowledge of digital markets at the regional level and the application of community rules for the investigation and sanction of anticompetitive practices and abuse of dominance in the Andean region, without prejudice to the evaluation of the possible development of specific regulations for digital markets, as part of our agenda.[14] (emphasis added)

In Mexico, the Federal Economic Competition Commission (COFECE) published a digital-strategy report[15] that proposed creating a digital-markets competition unit similar to the one recently implemented in the United Kingdom.[16] COFECE’s strategy contemplates:

Whether or not it is necessary to identify, under specific categories, digital platforms with certain capacities to influence or distort markets; [and]

Whether or not it is necessary to consider specific regulation to delimit the conduct of digital platforms that fall into said categories or that may otherwise distort markets.[17] (emphasis added)

In Peru, the National Institute for the Defense of Competition and Protection of Intellectual Property (INDECOPI) has proposed—in a market report on the financial-technology (FinTech) sector—studying the possibility of enacting “open banking” or “open finance” regulations to “level the information playing field.”[18]

Brazil, however, appears to be “leading the race,” as it is the only Latin American country with an actual regulatory proposal. In October 2022, Federal Deputy João Maia introduced Bill No. 2768/2022 on digital markets regulation.[19] The bill’s statement of reasons included a discussion about the need to avoid imposing “absolute prohibitions” on digital platforms, but it also included a non-rebuttable presumption that any company with annual operational income of more than R$70 million should be considered a “gatekeeper” (“detentores de controle de acceso essencial”). The measure would mandate that these gatekeepers give “equal and non-discriminatory treatment” to “professional users” and “not to refuse to provide access to their digital platforms to professional users.”

The bill also specifically mentioned the DMA in its statement of reasons:

In the European Commission, the ‘Digital Markets Act,’ aimed at the so-called ‘gatekeepers’ in the digital world, is quite detailed and was approved in 2022.

We believe it is appropriate to introduce regulation in line with the European Commission, but in a much less detailed way. This is because we are dealing with issues of extreme relevance, which require regulatory responses much faster than what is possible in defense of competition but which are sufficiently new to indicate that it is not appropriate to place an ex-ante straitjacket on economic agents, with a series of absolute prohibitions.[20]

More recently, Brazil’s Ministry of Finance unveiled its report on the economics and competition dynamics of digital platforms.[21] The report did not recommend implementing DCRs but instead called for a “more flexible,” quasi-regulatory approach similar to the existing regulatory regimes in Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom. This would entail, the ministry reports, applying “case-by-case specific obligations” to “systemically relevant digital platforms.”

In short, while it remains unclear the extent to which DCRs will be implemented in Latin America, there is no doubt that Europe and the DMA exerts at least some influence among Latin American policymakers. This raises a crucial question: is the EU’s approach sensible? And even if it is sensible for the EU, does that necessarily make it an appropriate regulatory approach in the context of Latin America? These questions are analyzed in the following sections.

I. If DCRs Are the Solution, What’s the Problem?

This section reviews public-policy reports on the digital economy in Latin America in order to identify relevant shortcomings and bottlenecks. While competition concerns remain important across the region, they are not among the most urgent public-policy priorities for Latin America. Moreover, Part B illustrates that the region’s digital markets are “reasonably competitive.” While some actors—such as Google and Microsoft—do appear to enjoy large and durable market shares, which could indicate excess market power, other so-called “Big Tech” platforms have much smaller market shares and face significant competition. Indeed, new actors are thriving in the e-commerce, FinTech, ride-hailing, and food-delivery markets. This suggests that barriers to entry are much lower than DCR proponents often make them out to be.

A. Digital Markets in Latin America

Before considering new regulations, Latin American countries should think carefully about their policy objectives and the best way to accomplish them. Among the questions that must be asked:

  • Is there a need to “tame” large digital platforms?
  • Do these platforms somehow constrain growth and innovation?
  • Do they create inefficiencies or inequities?
  • Are “contestability” and/or “fairness” insufficient in digital markets?

It is safe to say that there is little evidence that would merit answering any of these questions affirmatively. If anything, Latin American societies need greater access to and use of digital platforms so that citizens can more readily access information, education, markets, and opportunities.

One important problem is that the proposed DCRs discussed in the introductory section are grounded primarily on theoretical concerns about competition—not the diagnosis of actual competition problems (or any other sort of market problems) in the Latin American digital economy. In contrast, most public-policy reports that actually analyze the Latin American digital economy see it as a tool to enhance economic growth, knowledge, productivity, and social inclusion, and highlight its enormous growth in recent years.

A 2013 report by the United Nations’ Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), for example, found that:

After two decades of implementing policies that have emphasized the development of infrastructure, access to the Internet and the diffusion of ICTs, evidence shows a significant share of the digital economy in GDP. ECLAC estimates indicate that, on average for Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, it reaches at least 3.2%, a non-negligible figure if we consider that in the 27 countries of the European Union the corresponding percentage is 5%.[22]

But unlike in the United States or (to a lesser degree) Europe, information and communications technology (ICT) has not led to broad productivity increases in Latin America. Rather than insufficient competition, the primary reason for this appears to be “the existence of barriers to the use of ICTs as a source of increased productivity and growth.”[23] Latin American firms lack the management efficiencies, human capital, and broader infrastructure that their counterparts in the United States and Europe enjoy.[24] Failures to engage in effective state modernization or to proper education on the use of ICT may also play a role.[25]

A more recent OECD report, produced in concert with the EU and the United Nations, underscored that this “digital divide” has served as a barrier that impedes Latin Americans from taking advantage of ICT to foster growth and productivity,[26] and noted the region still has a “high and increasing” productivity gap with developed economies.[27] Citing the Digital Ecosystem Development Index’s measurements of the impact of digitalization on economic development, the report notes that:

Despite significant advances in the last 15 years, LAC’s digital ecosystem is at an intermediate level of development (index value 48.7 on a scale of 0 to 100), compared with Africa (34.2), Asia-Pacific (42.1), the Middle East and North Africa (55.4), the OECD area (66.8), Western Europe (67.6) and North America (75.4).[28]

While the index does mention “competitive intensity” as one of the area in which Latin America continues to fall short, this referred only to competition in telecommunications services (mobile services, fixed broadband, mobile broadband and cable TV).[29]

But as I have argued, a lack of competition in “digital markets” or digital platforms is not the primary problem holding back the productive use of digital technologies in Latin America. More basic problems like access to digital services and a general lack of knowledge about how to use ICT remain the main bottlenecks. While Latin American countries have experienced significant growth in internet access—the percentage of the population who use the internet regularly nearly doubled from 2010 to 2018, reaching 68%,[30] while more recent data suggest that 75% of the population now uses the internet[31]—there remains a large gap in the quality of access.

[D]espite improvements, connection speeds are below the world average, limiting types of services and apps available. Low connection speed prevents simultaneous apps, a critical issue during the coronavirus (Covid?19) pandemic.[32]

Moreover, in Latin American markets where relatively few people have the skills to use ICT, it is significantly harder for entrepreneurs to exploit opportunities on digital platforms, let alone to create their own platforms and complementary services. This, naturally, also applies to business users who are unable to take advantage of digital services. The fact is that:

Less than half of Latin Americans have used a computer or have sufficient skills to use computers for basic professional tasks. …

The most common daily activities among those with computer skills were using the Internet for information gathering (73%) and email (69%), followed by real?time communications, such as videoconference or chat. Only 8% used computers for programming. Computer and Internet use varies by country. In Mexico, 15% use ICT to conduct transactions at least once per week, compared with 30% in Chile.[33] (emphasis added)

According to the OECD’s 2019 “Shaping the Digital Transformation in Latin America” report:

In terms of broadband access and use, although relevant advances have been made, there is still a long way to go. As noted above, some 38% of the population of LAC was not yet connected to the Internet in 2017, implying that some 237 million people were considered to be “offline”. Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, alone, for their size and populations, jointly still need to connect around 133 million people. In addition, that estimate does not yet qualify for the type or quality of Internet access. From the 391 million connected people in LAC, for example, only one-quarter of them, or 103 million, had a fixed broadband subscription at the end of 2017 (Figure 2.1). However, progress is being made rapidly, and more than 40 million more people were connected to a fixed network at the end of 2017 than in 2014 (OECD/IDB, 2016). Moreover, some 86 million additional people were online in 2017 compared to 2014. [34]

The report also highlighted lack of skills as a barrier to ICT adoption:

Skills levels are poor in the region, due to the low quality of primary and secondary education and structural barriers. Young Latin Americans perform poorly in reading, mathematics and science compared to their counterparts in OECD countries. Between 23 and 70% of young Latin Americans enrolled in school do not acquire basic-level proficiency in reading, mathematics and science, according to PISA results. (…) less than 3.6% of LAC students perform among the highest levels of proficiency in either mathematics, reading or science. In contrast, 15% of students in OECD countries perform in the top in at least one of these subjects.

This constitutes an obstacle to further develop more specific skills and may hamper innovation. While the latest PISA results show a moderate improvement over time in students’ learning outcomes, results remain poor compared to many other regions in the world.

(…) 43 million young Latin Americans aged 15 to 29, or 31% of the youth population, have not completed secondary education and are not enrolled in school. Even those who graduate suffer from poor quality education and transition into adult life with skills far down the ranks in comparative international evaluations such as PISA.[35] (citations omitted, emphasis added).

The 2019 OECD report did mention that “ensuring sufficient competition in the digital economy is also a challenge” and that “competition authorities must be prepared with flexible tools and co-operate across borders to address transnational competition issues.”[36] It also included a section on “Competition in the Digital Economy,” which noted that “digital technologies and data lead to greater competition in many markets” but that they “also have demonstrated a potential to tilt others toward greater concentration, market power or even dominance.”[37]

It is important to point out, however, that the report mentioned only potential competition problems or challenges to competition agencies. The report did not reference any data regarding harms to competition, or highlight any market trends that suggest rising concentration or market power. More importantly, the report did not suggest any major policy changes, let alone endorse DCRs or any other kind of regulation. Instead, it recommended greater coordination among the various jurisdictions’ competition agencies, as well as with other (e.g., consumer-protection or data-privacy) agencies within their own jurisdictions:

As digital transformation continues to affect competition, it may lead to some new challenges for competition policy frameworks that were designed with traditional products in mind. One such challenge is that digitalisation may introduce new dimensions of competition in markets, as well as new ways to achieve anticompetitive outcomes, such as the use of algorithms to collude. In addition, a range of issues will require competition authorities to enhance their advocacy efforts and deepen their co-operation with consumer protection, data protection and other regulators. These include the use of consumer data under the relevant data protection safeguards as a competitive asset when providing products at no cost, or when developing personalised prices.

Co-operation may be needed across borders to ensure that common standards are applied and that information is available to regulators. Bilateral and regional enforcement may also be useful, for example joint decision making between jurisdictions, although it is important that clear rules exist to indicate how enforcement actions are to be addressed if there are bodies with overlapping responsibilities.[38]

In other worse, even if there are reasonable concerns about competition in the “digital economy,” no putative competition problem (i.e., strategic barriers to entry implemented by a dominant incumbent) should be considered the primary constraint on the use of digital services and products to foster growth and productivity in the region (or even to its beneficial use by individuals). Most diagnoses about the state and impact of the digital economy in Latin America identify far more fundamental problems. Digital-markets regulation, therefore, should not be a public-policy priority for Latin America.

Despite this conclusion, some DCR proponents nonetheless point to “lack of competition” as a valid reason to adopt ex-ante regulation. Part B will explore if the evidence on this point.[39]

B. Are Digital Markets Competitive in Latin America?

As Section 2 will explore in greater depth,[40] most DCRs have a broad scope and are designed to cover all “digital markets,” including myriad products and services—from search engines to online marketplaces to operating systems to streaming platforms.[41] If a single body of rules is meant to regulate all “digital markets” due to an alleged lack of competition, all or most markets covered by those rules must show symptoms of a “decline in competition.” If digital markets instead offer evidence that competition is sufficiently vigorous, that should be reason enough to reevaluate the scope of DCRs, if not to abandon them altogether.

There are few comprehensive assessments of the state of competition in Latin American digital markets,[42] but it is possible to find reports and statistics covering such markets as e-commerce, FinTech, and ride-hailing platforms that show consistent growth and entry. Market share and market concentration are, of course, imperfect proxies for competition,[43] but the available evidence does not appear to support the common contention that “Big Tech” companies are “monopolies” in Latin America.

Google is arguably the only company that enjoys a dominant position—in its case, in the search-engine market in Latin America. Not only does it have an extremely large market share in the region—93.27% in 2024[44]—but it has also maintained that position for more than a decade.[45] Microsoft also enjoys extremely high market shares in the operating-system market, especially if the desktop OS market is measured separately from mobile. In the desktop OS market, Microsoft, owner of Windows, is the clear leader, with 88.42% market share,[46] followed distantly by Apple’s OSX, with a 4.56% market share.[47] In the mobile OS market Google’s Android has an 83.43% market share, followed by Apple’s iOS with a 16.33% market share.[48]

This does not mean, however, that these firms can exercise market power without any consequence. In recent years, mobile devices can substitute for desktops for a growing number of use cases.[49] Microsoft, therefore, is not only constrained by its edge competitors in the desktop OS market, but also by what participants in the mobile OS market are doing to enhance the experience of tablet and smartphone users. Google, in turn, faces potential competition in the search-engine market from artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots like ChatGPT and from AI search applications developed by Microsoft, Meta, and other firms.[50] Even if we assume that Google has incontestable monopoly power, regulation would be difficult to implement.[51]

Other “usual suspects” of market dominance, such as Meta or Amazon, have smaller but still important market shares. Meta, the owner of Facebook and Instagram, has a large market share in the social-media space: 71.87%, if Facebook (48.92%) and Instagram (22.95%) are lumped together.[52] Facebook’s market share is, however, declining, and newer platforms like TikTok are gaining users.[53] Indeed, TikTok has had an extraordinary rate of growth, attracting an annual average of 340 million active new users worldwide from 2018 to 2022.[54] The example of TikTok demonstrates how a new competitor with an attractive product can challenge an established incumbent like Meta, despite lacking its network effects, scale, or data advantages.

Conversely, Amazon may be the “big tech” company facing the most competition in Latin America; it is sometimes even the underdog against the regional “unicorn” Mercado Libre or other local platforms. A recent report about online marketplaces across Latin America and the Caribbean found that “(a)s of August 2022, there were 893 B2C or C2C online marketplaces in the LAC region, accounting for 2,876 websites (URLs).”[55] As shown in Table 1, there are more than 20 marketplaces that have averaged a more than 1% share of online traffic from 2019–2021.

TABLE 1: Share of Marketplace Traffic in Latin America, 2019-2021 (%)

SOURCE: Estefanía Lotitto and Bernardo Díaz de Astarloa (2023)

It is important to note that the list only includes marketplaces focused specifically on Latin American and Caribbean countries. The full number of competitors might be even larger, as the list does not take into account online traffic to international marketplaces where Latin American consumers also shop.

Report authors Estefanía Lotitto & Bernardo Díaz de Astarloa acknowledge that there has been significant entry in the e-commerce market, but suggest that Latin American governments should nonetheless “monitor competition patterns in the e-commerce market to avoid dominant positions and mitigate economic risks associated with competition between traditional SMEs who lack the capabilities to operate effectively in digital channels and large, established marketplaces.”[56] The authors do not explain what kind of monitoring these government should be doing, but given that also do not endorse any changes to the legal system, it is fair to assume they do not have DCRs in mind.

According to the OECD, e-commerce in Latin America:

While it remains relatively small (…), it is growing rapidly: revenues reached USD 45.4 billion in 2017 compared to USD 29.8 billion in 2015. While not all e-commerce firms are platforms (e.g., many traditional retailers also sell their products on their own websites), many of the largest players in e-commerce in Latin America are platforms: the main e-commerce retailers in Latin America include MercadoLibre, Amazon, B2W Digital, Alibaba, eBay, CNova, Apple, Walmart, Google Shopping, Buscape.[57]

Given this backdrop of growing demand, it would be extremely difficult for an alleged monopolist to exercise market power, as that demand would not be satisfied by the restriction of output; it would instead likely attract new sellers.[58] In the case of e-commerce (as in most, if not all, digital markets), low barriers to entry facilitate such additional competition.[59]

In the case of Amazon, for instance, there is empirical evidence that it not only competes in Mexico but competes intensively with other distribution channels, and has a net-positive welfare effect on Mexican consumers. A 2022 paper found that “e-commerce and brick-and-mortar retailers in Mexico operate in a single, highly competitive retail market” and that “Amazon’s entry has generated a significant pro-competitive effect by reducing brick-and-mortar retail prices and increasing product selection for Mexican consumers.”[60]

The recent entry of other marketplaces into the region (e.g., Shein) suggests that the e-commerce market is highly competitive. Moreover, there is a substantial margin for expansion, which suggests that demand could grow even more: “For instance, in 2017, 35% of Chileans had purchased online, compared to 27% in Brazil, 13% in Mexico, and 8% in Colombia.”[61]

Recently, Aeropost—a U.S. shipping and logistics company already operating in other Latin American and Caribbean countries—entered to compete in the Peruvian e-commerce market with the inauguration of its own marketplace. The business journal Semana Económica explains that “(t)he company – specialized in importing products from the United States to Latin America – seeks to take advantage of the growth of electronic commerce in the region.”[62] The company‘s CEO highlighted the relatively low penetration of e-commerce in the country: “(w)hen we talk about e-commerce in Latin America, the numbers are still very small compared to total retail. So, it is about opening, about making the pie grow, and not about the percentage of the market you have.”[63]

Regarding the FinTech market, the evidence also suggests a market experiencing consistent growth and entry:

One study identified 703 Fintech start-ups in 16 Latin American countries in 2017 (IDB and Finovista, 2017), of which 33% were in Brazil, 26% in Mexico, 12%, in Colombia, 10% in Argentina and 9% in Chile. A year later, the study identified 1,166 companies in the region, representing a 66% increase from the previous year (IDB and Finovista, 2018). The main business segments in which these Fintech start-ups are active include payments and remittances (24%), lending (18%), enterprise financial management (15%), personal financial management (8%) and crowdfunding (8%) (IDB and Finovista, 2018, p. 15).[64]

INDECOPI’s report on the FinTech sector found that the number of FinTech companies operating in Peru has been growing at an annual rate of 15%, reaching 154 companies in 2022 from 50 in 2014.[65]

FinTech, importantly, is not only competitive, but it is also “boosting competition.” As Bas Bakker et al. explained: “(t)he proliferation of new financial technology and digital banks is associated with a reduction in lending spreads. (…) fintech companies do not just compete with banks and insurance companies; they also provide banks and insurance companies with new technologies and services.”[66] The growth of FinTech services has also improved financial inclusion:

About three-quarters of digital banks’ customers are previously unbanked and underbanked consumers and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). A higher level of fintech adoption is associated with lower income inequality. Alternative finance has boosted access to finance for micro, small, and medium enterprises—sectors that have been underserved by the traditional banking system.[67]

Ride-hailing and food delivery may be the digital markets experiencing the most intense regional competition. According to The Economist, “(i)n 2021 Latin American startups attracted around $16bn in investment, roughly as much as in the previous ten years combined.”[68] Many of those firms are digital platforms that:

Aim to make life more convenient—groceries or takeaway food delivered to your door, for example. The likes of Cornershop, a Chilean app that started in 2015 and was bought by Uber in 2020, and Rappi, a Colombian app, are now used across the region. Both have expanded to do more, including delivering small parcels and running errands.[69]

Apps like Uber, Cabify, and Didi disrupted the traditional private-transport market in Latin America. Using Brazilian municipal data from 2014-2016, Guilherme Mendes Resende and Ricardo Carvalho de Andrade Lima found: “Uber’s entry into the market resulted in an average reduction of 56.8 percent in the number of rides from [the other] cab-hailing apps in the cities where the platform operates.”[70]

While there are some companies with large market shares in these markets, the landscape is highly competitive. As Scott Beyer has noted:

While Uber and Didi do in fact dominate LatAm rideshare, it hasn’t been easy. And in food delivery, they’re actually losing to the region’s homegrown companies. In either case, government regulation (or lack thereof) dictates their trajectory. (…)

Uber and Didi are both expanding in these regions, and see in urbanized Latin America a particularly alluring battleground. (…).

I saw the battle play out in my first stop, Mexico City. Uber dominated Mexico for years, but now has less market share there than Didi. It was easy to see why: each time I needed a ride, I’d find Didi had slightly lower prices.

But once getting further down into LatAm, I found the market got more crowded—namely for food delivery. Three regional apps now beat both Uber and Didi in delivery market share. PedidosYa, based in Uruguay, is dominating Central and far South America. Rappi, a delivery and finance app, wins its home country of Colombia and several surrounding ones. iFood, based in Sao Paulo, is all over Brazil, by far the region’s biggest market. These apps draw global investors and generate lots of buzz.[71]

There is also evidence that Latin American digital economy is not only competitive, but that it has made “traditional” industries more competitive. For example, COFECE’s digital-strategy report recognized that:

So far, the arrival of some technological giants in the Mexican markets has generated competitive pressure for traditional companies. For example, the growing activity of companies such as Google and Facebook in the advertising market may have the effect that important companies established in this market face greater competition and work hard to satisfy the demands of their consumers. Something similar could happen in sectors such as retail sales, finance, mobility and entertainment, whose traditional markets present significant levels of concentration, and which with the arrival of companies such as Amazon, Uber, Cabify, Didi, various Fintech, Apple and Netflix could benefit from the competition process.[72]

Similarly, Esteban Greco and María Fernanda Viecens found that:

Digital players act as disruptive suppliers with respect to traditional players. In various markets it is observed that it is digital developments that exert competitive pressure on the market, and those that provide innovative products and technological alternatives, resulting in the competitive process including both traditional and digital players. So, in such cases, more than digital markets, digital players are observed breaking into traditional markets and exerting competitive pressure on established suppliers.[73]

In summary, there is evidence of market growth and entry in various digital markets across Latin America, suggesting that barriers to entry are low. If that is indeed the case, firms’ attempts to exercise market power would be disciplined by competition. Therefore, a general “lack of competition” in digital markets is a poor rationale to create DCRs in Latin America.

II. Are DCRs Needed Where There Is Sufficient Competition?

DCR proposals rest on the premise that digital markets “dominated by large digital platforms” (so-called “Big Tech” firms) are not and cannot be sufficiently competitive due to certain “characteristics” that make them prone to concentration and monopoly. Thus, even if certain digital markets appear to be competitive, the argument goes, it is inevitable that they will eventually become monopolies, and regulation is needed to prevent that. Giuseppe Colangelo summarizes the argument well:

The distinctive features of digital markets apparently require a rethinking of the antitrust regime. The presence of strong economies of scale, extreme indirect network effects, remarkable economies of scope due to the role of data as a critical input, and conglomerate effects, along with consumers’ behavioural biases and single-homing tendencies, represent significant barriers to entry that make digital markets highly concentrated, prone to tipping, and not easily contestable. Therefore, large incumbent players appear not to be under threat and hard to dislodge. Moreover, digital platforms act as gatekeepers (either by controlling the access of third-party firms to their users or controlling the consumption of products and services by their users) and regulators (due to their rule-setting role within their ecosystem), and frequently play a dual role, being simultaneously operators for the marketplace and sellers of their own products and services in competition with rival sellers.[74]

In addition to the aforementioned “characteristics,” problems in digital markets also allegedly arise from failures inherent to antitrust enforcement:

In light of this, mounting criticism against current competition policy allege that lax antitrust enforcement, flawed judicial rules that reflect unsound economic theories or unsupported empirical claims, and the limited effectiveness of the antitrust toolkit have contributed to a significant increase in concentration in digital markets. Furthermore, antitrust litigation and enforcement are deemed to be too protracted and expensive, causing ambiguity, draining resources, and privileging incumbents. Despite the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division (DOJ) ongoing reviewing of whether and how certain online platforms have achieved market power and are engaging in anticompetitive practices and the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) launching of an ex post evaluation of BigTech acquisitions, there is strong skepticism and criticism surrounding the efficacy of antitrust investigations. Too little, too late.[75]

Proponents argue that DCRs could prevent or rapidly address these problems. Some of the proposed reforms are not actually labeled as “regulations,” but rather as “competition-law reforms.” Most, however, are sector-specific (“digital markets”) and include specific ex-ante rules and duties (with prescribed penalties in the case of breach). Also, their application would not be based on the consumer-welfare effects of the regulated conduct.[76] Therefore, for the purposes of this paper, these initiatives will also be considered ex-ante regulation.[77]

In general, the proposed regulations would introduce prohibitions and restrictions on certain practices, such as so-called “self-preferencing” or the use of third-party data, and special duties, such as “interoperability” and data sharing by digital platforms with “considerable economic power” (or “gatekeepers”).[78] Some also give competition agencies or new regulators the ability to impose specific remedies.[79]

A. Market Failure in Digital Markets

According to economic theory and long-tested economic principles, ex-ante regulation is justified only in the presence of “market failures.”[80] A market failure is “a situation where the private market fails to produce the optimal level of a particular good,”[81] or as former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer put it, “an alleged inability of the marketplace to deal with particular structural problems.”[82] The four market failures most commonly accepted in the economic literature are information problems, externalities, natural monopolies, and public goods.[83]

Of course, other rationales have been put forward in the political debate surrounding DCRs (distributive concerns; “fairness,” as in the case of the DMA; central planning; human rights). Nonetheless, mainstream policy discussion and regulatory best practices have long required evidence that a market is not working properly in order to justify extraordinary interventions.[84] As Thom Lambert points out:

[B]ecause the point of market failure-correcting government interventions is to enhance social welfare, such interventions are not justified if they would themselves create losses greater than those occasioned by the market failures they are aimed at correcting. Wise policy, therefore, requires consideration of the ways in which government interventions may reduce welfare.[85]

Tellingly, the DMA—the “original blueprint”[86] for DCRs—does not mention the term “market failure” or argue that any of the above-mentioned market failures are present in digital markets.[87] Likewise, Brazilian Bill No. 2768 follows suit and fails to explain which market failure would justify the regulation of digital markets in Brazil.

Instead, DCR proposals tend to mention “characteristics” of digital markets that (in some cases) lead to highly concentrated markets and a lack of market contestability that could be labelled as “quasi-market failures.” Those “quasi-market failures” allegedly make entry and surpassing incumbent market leaders difficult, even if they do not actually impede competition. As Colangelo has described it: “strong economies of scale, extreme indirect network effects, remarkable economies of scope due the role of data as a critical input, and conglomerate effects, along with consumers’ behavioural biases and single-homing tendencies.”[88]

The DMA recitals mention, e.g., that:

…core platform services feature a number of characteristics that can be exploited by the undertakings providing them. An example of such characteristics of core platform services is extreme scale economies, which often result from nearly zero marginal costs to add business users or end users. Other such characteristics of core platform services are very strong network effects, an ability to connect many business users with many end users through the multisidedness of these services, a significant degree of dependence of both business users and end users, lock-in effects, a lack of multi-homing for the same purpose by end users, vertical integration, and data driven-advantages. All these characteristics, combined with unfair practices by undertakings providing the core platform services, can have the effect of substantially undermining the contestability of the core platform services, as well as impacting the fairness of the commercial relationship between undertakings providing such services and their business users and end users.[89]

These “characteristics” are not alleged to be market failures, as they do not impede competition or make it undesirable. That is why Justice Breyer’s emphasis on “structural” problems is important.[90] Not every condition that characterizes a market as failing to precisely fit the model of perfect competition is necessarily relevant for the purposes of public policy. The high cost of regulatory interventions demands that we intervene only to address those conditions that have a considerable impact, and only where they would remain in place over the long term in the absence of intervention.

To be sure, it is possible to find some level of informational asymmetry or (positive) externalities in digital markets, but not to such degree that they would fail to be addressed by market competition (actual or potential) or by such general rules as data protection or consumer protection. It is also possible to find digital markets where a firm has some degree of monopoly power. In most digital markets, however, there is little to no evidence of significant market power, nor of a tendency toward “natural monopoly” (that is, a case where it is not possible or desirable to replace the monopolist).[91]

Digital markets do not present a “new type” of market power. As Herbert Hovenkamp has explained:

There is little empirical support for the proposition that digital-platform markets are winner-take-all. Rather, the landscape for digital markets resembles the one for markets generally: some of them are more conducive to single-firm dominance than others. Some resemble markets with a dominant firm plus a competitive fringe. Others enjoy competition among more evenly sized rivals. (…)

For digital platforms, several factors point in different directions, making categorical treatment impossible. On the one hand, network effects can be a substantial entry barrier. Particularly in markets where significant product differentiation is impossible, a large base on one or both sides of a platform, which places newcomers at a significant disadvantage, can be a powerful entry deterrent. The same thing can be said of accumulation of large amounts of consumer data or large intellectual property portfolios. Offsetting these barriers are low consumer-switching costs and widespread multi-homing, which are common in platform markets; these factors, in contrast, encourage new entry. Product differentiation is also an avenue for new entry, as is high technological turnover.[92] (emphasis added).

In 2001, in the second edition of his “Antitrust Law” treatise, Richard Posner explained, in reference to what was then called the “new economy”, that:

Because of the extraordinary rate of innovation not only in computer software but also in communications technology, the extraordinary amount of capital available worldwide for investment in new enterprises, and the rapidity with which new networks that are primarily electronic can be put into service, the networks that have emerged in the new economy do not seem particularly secure against competition. We have seen all manner of firms rise and fall in this industry-falling sometimes from what had seemed a secure monopoly position. The gale of creative destruction that Schumpeter described, in which a sequence of temporary monopolies operates to maximize innovation that confers social benefits far in excess of the social costs of the short-lived monopoly prices that the process also gives rise to, may be the reality of the new economy. This is especially likely because quality competition tends to dominate price competition in the software industry. The quality-adjusted price of software has fallen steadily simply because quality improvements have vastly outrun price increases.[93]

In the same vein, Thom Lambert has analyzed several common indicators of market power and concluded that (at least, in general) we cannot assume that there is a general trend toward monopoly in digital markets. He finds that consumer prices on most platforms do not appear to be rising (in fact, most of their services are offered at zero monetary cost). There is also little evidence that advertising prices are rising.[94] Regarding the quality of digital products and services, Lambert finds that:

GAFA firms are hardly fat monopolists enjoying the quiet life that results from a lack of competition. They are better characterized as relentless innovators that continually improve their offerings for the benefit of consumers.[95]

Jonathan Barnett observes that “while digital markets tend to converge on ‘winner-take-most’ outcomes, that is often not the end of the story.”[96] He offers several examples of market incumbents that have lost their market-leadership position, or that have at the least been forced to confront the menace of innovative entrants:

In the social networking market, Facebook has faced stiff competition since 2019 from TikTok, which by some recent estimates (as of 2022) accounts for 20% of the global social-media networking market (as compared to 46% for Facebook and Instagram). In the office productivity software market, Microsoft’s long-standing leadership has been contested recently by Google’s Workspace applications suite, which by one estimate as of 2022 accounted for almost half of the global market. In the mobile device communications market, initial leaders such as Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson, and Blackberry enjoyed large market shares in the 1990s—in 1999, Nokia and Motorola accounted for 27% and 17% of the global market31—but were rapidly dislodged in the mid-2000s by Apple’s iPhone and Android-based devices produced by Samsung and other firms. In the online shopping market, Amazon has faced robust competition from Walmart and, in apparel, now faces robust competition from Shein and Temu. In the search market, Google has always faced competition in “vertical” search markets from leading providers in those segments, such as Expedia and Booking.com in travel, Zillow and Redfin in real estate, and Yahoo!, Bloomberg and Reuters in finance.[97]

In a book that examined digital platforms through the lens of natural-monopoly theory,[98] Francesco Ducci focused on three case studies of “big” digital platforms, and only in the case of general or horizontal search (Google) did he find features of a natural monopoly.[99] His findings are debatable, but even assuming that they are correct, Ducci also warns that “a real-world regulator for horizontal search is likely to face a number of insurmountable limitations and challenges, especially in technologically fast and fluid industries.”[100]

In the case of e-commerce platforms like Amazon, Ducci concluded that “(d)espite the fact that network externalities give rise to large e-commerce marketplaces and the physical infrastructure of online shopping for logistics and delivery is characterized by some scale economies, neither effect is strong enough to give rise to a natural monopoly.”[101]

Finally, in the case of ride-hailing platforms (like Uber), Ducci concludes that the evidence is ambiguous:

Ride-hailing platforms are not necessarily natural monopolies. Fixed costs of entry are not very high, and the positive effects of network externalities are likely to taper off after a certain critical mass is reached. Especially in larger cities, these factors may leave room for competition between networks, which can create a number of positive effects on prices, fees, and quality of the services. The technological features of ride-hailing platform can, however, increase the chances of natural monopolies compared to the traditional taxi dispatch systems, by pushing the frontier of efficient scale toward larger networks and geographic areas.[102]

It is worth discussing the “network effects” argument in digital markets. If a firm moves fast and gets the first customers, network-effects theory holds that the presence of those customers would, in turn, attract still more customers and sellers, who will attract even more. This growth would result, allegedly, in a single firm monopolizing the market. But as David Evans and Richard Schmalensee point out, that result is far from inevitable:

Systematic research on online platforms by several authors, including one of us, shows considerable churn in leadership for online platforms over periods shorter than a decade. Then there is the collection of dead or withered platforms that dot this sector, including Blackberry and Windows in smartphone operating systems, AOL in messaging, Orkut in social networking, and Yahoo in mass online media.[103]

In the same vein, Christopher Yoo explains that:

Despite attempts by recent reports to equate network effects with market failure, an examination of both the theoretical and empirical literature make clear that the relationship between network effects and market failure is more complex. Indeed, history is littered with once-leading digital companies that can attest to the reality that network effects are not sufficient by themselves to protect the dominance of early-market leaders. Considerations such as variation in the value of connections and the existence of countervailing externalities make the relationship between network effects and market failure ambiguous. In addition, network-effects based theories depend on the satisfaction of structural preconditions that must be shown in individual cases. Even when those preconditions are met, alternative institutional solutions exist that can mitigate or even dissipate the impact of network effects.[104]

Even those open to ex-ante regulations for digital markets acknowledge that there are considerable challenges, especially if the intent is to regulate digital platforms like “essential facilities.” Jean Tirole, for instance, acknowledges that it is possible to regulate a “stable essential facility,” but that the fast-moving nature of digital markets makes it difficult for regulators to identify them, collect the appropriate data, and promulgate and enforce the appropriate rules.[105]

This is probably why the European Commission’s Regulatory Scrutiny Board—an independent body within the Commission that advises commissioners and evaluates the impact of proposed regulations—has, according to one report, “expressed concern about the lack of evidence supporting the DMA’s underlying assumptions concerning the purported negative effects of certain platform practices.”[106]

It is also important to consider that most proposed DCRs are designed as a single body of rules that would cover all “digital markets,” as if such markets were homogeneous. But as the International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) explained at a 2022 meeting of the OECD’s Competition Committee:

The digital economy spans from online retail to real estate listings to concert tickets to travel booking to social media. Consequently, there is not a universally defined digital market. While digital markets are dynamic and evolving, as many markets are, digital market innovations in some segments are not as groundbreaking as they once were. In a similar manner, prominent digital market characteristics are not unique to digital markets. Print newspapers are multi-sided markets. Broadcast radio is zero-price.[107] (emphasis added)

Those differences are important enough to believe that the broad regulation of “digital markets” is misguided. As Herbert Hovenkamp has explained:

… broad regulation is ill-suited for digital platforms because they are so disparate…. They sell different products, albeit with some overlap, and only some of these products are digital. They deal with customers and diverse sets of third parties in different ways. What they have in common is that they are very large and that a sizeable portion of their operating technology is digital.[108] (emphasis added)

Platforms like Google Search, Amazon’s marketplace, Uber, and Spotify are so different from one another that it is highly unlikely that any single body of regulation could be both necessary and reasonable for all of those markets. Some of these markets have market leaders with a significant market share and few competitors; some are more fragmented and have more competitors with evenly distributed market shares. Some of them have strong “network effects” (payment systems), and some have milder “network effects” (streaming of video and audio). Some rely on extremely specific user data in order to deliver a valuable service, while others can work with more general data.

These idiosyncrasies mean that some rules will be useless in some markets, but will be enforced nonetheless, and generate compliance costs that could be passed on to consumers. Think of, e.g., data-sharing mandates that require the compulsory transfer of information to other platforms or “business users,” even if it is not useful to them. In other cases, the rules will not be useless, because they will affect the market where they are applied (i.e., they will benefit some business users and some consumers), but could have unintended consequences (i.e., harm to consumers in general). As Lazar Radic has pointed out:

There are a range of risks and possible unintended consequences associated with the DMA, such as the privacy dangers of sideloading and interoperability mandates; worsening product quality as a result of blanket bans on self-preferencing; decreased innovation; obstruction of the rule of law; and double and even triple jeopardy because of the overlaps between the DMA and EU competition rules.[109]

It is also important to consider that, even if they were warranted, DCRs create barriers to entry, regulatory risks, and restrictions on the monetization of business assets—all of which could make the affected markets less attractive, and thereby deter market entry. There is already anecdotal evidence that the DMA is having such consequences. As Alba Ribera has explained:

One of the greatest examples of the dichotomy that arises between the different types of consequences that can be generated by the regulatory capture of digital ecosystems can be found in Meta’s recent decision not to launch its new service Threads in the European Economic Space. To the extent that its service could be interpreted as falling within the definition of a “core platform service” belonging to the category of “online social networks” (listed by the DMA), Meta decided to refrain from entering the European market, due to the disproportionate burden that the demanding obligations imposed by the DMA would entail. It should be noted that Threads is still an entrant service in the online social networking market, in contrast to the predominant position occupied by X (previously known as Twitter). In this way, we observe that the categorization as a core platform service unifies and eliminates all the nuances that free competition entails with respect to incoming services in the markets.[110]

It also should be noted that DCRs would likely have a greater impact in developing economies where digital markets are not yet mature. More developed economies might, indeed, be able to afford any inefficiencies that stem from DCRs.[111]

For instance, regulations could make online goods and services more expensive. Facebook is already experimenting with a new business model in which consumers would see no advertising (and thus, there would be no data collection—or less data collection for marketing purposes, at least) but would instead have to pay to subscribe.[112] If this model were to become generalized, it may be good for some users. Privacy-minded American and European consumers would probably be able to afford such subscriptions. But the same could hardly be said for Latin American consumers—who, on average, earn less than a third the income of their European counterparts.[113]

From the perspective of the companies that own and operate digital platforms and services, if DMA-like regulations make emerging markets less profitable, the companies could simply leave or choose not to enter such markets. As Geoffrey Manne and Dirk Auer have explained, “to regulate competition, you first need to attract competition.”[114]

While empirical research on the impact of DCRs is scarce, a recent paper by Ke Rong, D. Daniel Sokol, Di Zhou, & Feng Zhu[115] analyzing the impact of China’s “Anti-Monopoly Guidelines for the Platform Economy”[116] finds that:

This regulation has made the investment climate less attractive for startups, evidenced by a 26.73% decrease in the monthly number of investments and an 18.72% drop in newly established companies in affected industries. Contrary to expectations, the Platform Guidelines have not fostered greater competition.[117]

The recently published “The Future of European Competitiveness” report[118] (commonly known as the “Draghi Report”) underscores the impact that regulation can have on competitiveness, growth, and innovation. While the report appears to endorse the DMA, it does acknowledge that regulations like the GDPR have had a negative impact, and cautions against the administrative burden that the DMA could impose:

…while the ambitions of the EU’s GDPR and AI Act are commendable, their complexity and risk of overlaps and inconsistencies can undermine developments in the field of AI by EU industry actors. (…) This calls for developing simplified rules and enforcing harmonised implementation of the GDPR in the Member States, while removing regulatory overlaps with the AI Act (…). This would ensure that EU companies are not penalised in the development and adoption of frontier AI. With the DMA and DSA, the EU has also adopted pioneering legislation to ensure that digital competition and fair online market practices are enforced. This aims to protect smaller innovators and players from the dominance of Very Large Online Platforms, and to safeguard citizens, creators and IP holders from lack of accountability by the responsible platforms. While it is early to fully gauge the impact of these landmarks regulations, their implementation must avoid producing administrative and compliance burdens and legal uncertainties as the GDPR’s and must be enforced within shorter timeframes and more stringent processes for compliance provisions.[119]

Precisely because there is a significant growth and productivity gap between Latin America and other developed countries—greater even than that between Europe and the United States—Latin America cannot afford to implement regulations that could hinder its competitiveness. The Draghi Report points out that:

EU economic growth has been persistently slower than in the US over the past two decades, while China has been rapidly catching up. The EU-US gap in the level of GDP at 2015 prices has gradually widened from slightly more than 15% in 2002 to 30% in 2023, while on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis a gap of 12% has emerged.[120]

But Latin American countries’ GDP gap with the United States is even larger and, in some cases, growing (see Figure 1). The primary culprit behind this gap is productivity, which is only about half that of the United States.[121]

In sum, there are several reasons to believe that no solid rationale exists to regulate Latin American digital markets: not any of them specifically, and not in general. Moreover, there are good reasons to believe that such regulations would do more harm than good for competition and consumers.

FIGURE 1: Per-Capita GDP, US and Select Latin American Countries, 1960-2023 (Constant 2015 US$)

SOURCE: World Bank, OECD[122]

B. Costs and Benefits of Regulation Versus Antitrust

Those reports that do recommend adoption of DCRs often highlight the alleged shortcomings of traditional antitrust law—i.e., that it is “too slow” or “too hard to win” for plaintiffs—as the primary justification to pursue ex-ante regulation. As Giuseppe Colangelo has explained:

… the regulatory approaches recently advanced do not seem to reflect the distinctive features of digital markets, but rather the need to design enforcement short-cuts to cope with growing concerns that antitrust law is unable to address potential anticompetitive practices by large online platforms. Hence, in most of the mentioned reports, the revival of regulation seems supported more by an alleged antitrust enforcement failure rather than true a market failure. The goal is indeed to fill alleged enforcement gaps in the current antitrust rules by introducing tools aimed at lowering legal standards and evidentiary burdens in order to address anti-competitive practices that standard antitrust analysis would struggle to tackle.[123]

This may be a reasonable cause for regulation (although an “institutional failure,” rather than a market failure). Few would disagree that antitrust cases should be faster. Competition agencies and courts, generally speaking, should have more resources and more expeditious procedures to adjudicate cases before market structures and dynamics change and render any potential remedy useless.[124] But the fact that cases are “hard to win” is not a valid reason. Indeed, this is arguably a feature, and not a bug, of antitrust law, especially in the context of “abuse of dominance” or “monopolization” cases.[125]

In replacing standard antitrust-law concepts like “relevant markets,” “monopoly power,” “dominant position,” and “consumer harm” with concepts like “core platforms services” and “gatekeepers,” DCRs provide procedural shortcuts to condemn some business models and practices. While these shortcuts may reduce administrative costs, these putative benefits are easily overstated. Only a few weeks after the DMA entered into force, and only a week after compliance workshops held with the newly designated “gatekeepers”, the European Commission announced that it was initiating noncompliance proceedings against three companies because their compliance proposals fell “short of effective compliance” with the new DMA rules.[126] If gatekeepers decide to appeal the seemingly inevitable noncompliance decisions, these proceedings could take months or even years of litigation before they are resolved.

Perhaps more importantly, these procedural shortcuts have a cost: they amount to the per-se prohibition of business models and practices that usually provide benefits for consumers, such as lower prices and a safer user experience. These costs are compounded by the fact that, as mentioned,[127] the language of DCRs is often overly broad. As Lazar Radic, Geoffrey Manne, and Dirk Auer have explained:

… digital markets tend to be very different from those traditionally subject to price regulation and access regimes. And even in those industries, price regulation and access regimes raise many difficulties, such as identifying appropriate price/cost ratios and fleshing out the nonprice aspects of the goods/services or regulated firms.

Those difficulties are compounded in the fast-moving digital space, where innovation cycles are faster, and where yesterday’s prices and nonprice factors may no longer be relevant today.[128]

To pick one such obligation, the application of “common-carrier” laws to digital platforms would not have a positive impact for consumers, in that “by questioning the core of digital platform business models and affecting their governance design, these interventions entrust public authorities with mammoth tasks that could ultimately jeopardize the profitability of app-store ecosystems.”[129] Apple’s App Store is one such example. As Randal Picker explained:

Would Apple have an obligation to carry—here meaning pre-install—any app requesting that? I hope that merely to state the idea is to make clear why that would be an outcome that would be physically impossible and would create a terrible consumer experience. No blocking of apps found to contain malware, no limits on pornography, no limits on apps that help that help people violate the law or evade law enforcement. Part of what consumers want from app stores (or presumably any store, online or offline) is some assurance of quality and filtering for safety and other important social values. And all of the problems that consumers experience in searching through the app stores would come directly to their devices. So don’t pre-install apps, but pre-install links, say an incredibly long browser ballot for all apps on your device. Again, self-refuting I hope.[130] (emphasis added).

The ban on “self-preferencing” would also have adverse effects for consumers. As Thom Lambert noted in a piece critical of the proposed American Innovation and Choice Online Act (AICOA) in the United States,[131] the pre-installation of services like the iPhone’s Siri involves “self-preferencing” or discrimination among business users of Apple’s iOS platform. But consumers value having a device that is ready to be used. Consumers also like the fact that Google’s search results for a restaurant or a museum offer directions to the place, which implicates the self-preferencing of Google Maps.[132],[133]

DCRs’ rigidity comes, at least partially, from the fact that regulators act with limited information (because they design the rules to be applied to an activity before that activity takes place). In the case of antitrust laws, agencies and courts apply the law to activities whose effects can be assessed, if imperfectly. In that sense, antitrust laws are more precise than DCRs, which rest on presumptions that certain categories of conduct are generally harmful:

… in real economies with positive transactions and information costs, the performance of the two systems will differ. Because ex-post liability systems evaluate the activities of firms later in time after information on the effects of an activity has been revealed, the information advantage favors the use of ex-post liability systems when there is heterogeneity that is known to the regulated firms (but not the regulator) ex-ante.[134] (emphasis added)

Moreover, antitrust laws are more flexible than ex-ante regulation and more likely to be appropriate for a broader range of markets and business models.[135] As Richard Posner illustrates, while per-se rules are generally simpler and cheaper to enforce, they tend to be either underinclusive or overinclusive. When the application of such rules is determined by facts like a platform’s size or numbers of users, which are disconnected from its goals, they are “especially apt to fail.”[136]

As Geoffrey Manne has pointed out, the “common-law approach” of antitrust can be a form of error cost avoidance, leading to less Type I errors than is the case with regulation.[137] Since the “specification of detailed, ex-ante rules will ensure costly, erroneous outcomes where conduct is not clearly harmful, our understanding of its effects is indeterminate, or technological change alters either the effects of certain conduct or our understanding of it.”[138] Moreover, a case-by-case approach “is readily amenable to Bayesian updating, and as more information is gleaned (both through experience and the development of economic science), the common law approach incorporates it into the analysis.”[139]

It is important to note here that most of the practices banned by the DMA and similar regulations (and proposals) around the world are vertical restraints (contracts or other type of restraints between economic agents at different levels of the production chain), that therefore warrant a “rule-of-reason” analysis. As Jonathan Barnett explains:

The predominance of the rule of reason concerning these practices rests on a solid evidentiary foundation. Scholarship by economists and legal academics has shown that vertical restraints typically fall into the category of difficult-to-diagnose, lower to moderate-risk practices identified by Judge Taft in 1898. The most comprehensive and widely-cited review of the literature finds that, while there  is variation in theoretical models of the competitive effects of tying practices, “the empirical evidence concerning the effects of vertical restraints on consumer well-being is surprisingly consistent … when manufacturers choose to impose such restraints, not only do they make themselves better off but they also typically allow consumers to benefit from higher quality products and better service provision.” Given the complexity involved in diagnosing the competitive effects of vertical restraints, coupled with a body of evidence indicating that these practices typically benefit consumers in real-world markets, the courts’ and agencies’ fact-intensive, case-specific approach is a prudent course of action.[140] (citations omitted, italics in the original)

Even the 2019 “Cremer Report,”[141] which concluded that there are aspects of digital markets where “regulation might be appropriate,” acknowledged the relative superiority of antitrust laws to deal with any possible competition problem in digital markets:

Competition law can and should, for the foreseeable future, continue to accompany and guide the evolution of the platform economy. Its case law method is particularly well suited for the current state of evolution of the platform economy: a still experimental stage, where the efficiencies of different forms of organisation are not yet well understood and our knowledge and understanding still needs to evolve step by step.[142]

In Europe and the United States, the myriad cases initiated indicate that the “antitrust toolkit” is sufficient to address possible competition concerns in digital markets. As Giuseppe Colangelo explains,[143] the obligations introduced by the DMA appear to be based on past and current antitrust investigations. For example, the DMA prohibition on combining personal data across platforms appears to have been inspired by the Bundeskartellamt case against Facebook;[144] the prohibition on most-favored nation (MFN) clauses resembles the e-book case against Amazon.[145] The aforementioned rule on self-preferencing appears to have been inspired by the Google Shopping case.[146] Radic, Manne, and Auer also note that:

… the DMA covers conduct identical to that which the Commission has pursued under EU competition law. For instance, Google Shopping was a self-preferencing case that would fall under Article 6(5) of the DMA.130 Cases AT.40462 and AT.40703, which related to Amazon’s use of nonpublic trader data when competing on the Amazon Marketplace and its supposed bias when awarding the “Buy Box,” would now be caught by Articles 6(2) and 6(5) of the DMA.131 Apple’s anti-steering provisions—for which the Commission issued a fine mere days before the DMA’s entry into force—would be prohibited by Article 5(4) of the DMA.[147]

The fact that these cases have not been summarily dismissed, and that some cases have been adjudicated in the European Commission’s favor, tells us that the substantive rules and evidentiary burden of EU antitrust laws can be applied to digital markets. Therefore, it would be wise for Latin America to, at the least, wait for the outcome of the pending antitrust cases in Europe and the United States before rushing to adopt DCRs covering similar conduct. That would grant time to observe and analyze the results of the DMA’s “natural experiment” before opting to regulate digital markets.[148]

Another relative advantage of antitrust is that the risk is low that it would encourage “rent seeking.” Indeed, in a paper assessing the relative benefits and costs (and possible complementarity) of antitrust and regulation in network industries, Dennis Carlton and Randall Picker conclude that antitrust laws are less susceptible to “regulatory capture” because regulation to affect special interests more directly.[149] Jean Tirole also underscores that regulation creates concerns about regulatory capture.[150]

From the perspective of the rule of law, it is also important to point out that DCRs tend to grant enforcers a great degree of discretion, which in turn fosters incentives for arbitrariness and abuse. This, of course, depends on how a specific piece of regulation is drafted and implemented. Policymakers should be cautious about following the DMA template. As Pablo Ibañez Colomo points out, “the Commission is not subject to the boundaries defined over the years in the case law. [The DMA] expands the leeway through very choice of goals and benchmarks, which are inherently broad and vague.”[151] The European regulation does not contemplate clear and specific requirements that trigger its application, but rather:

… identifies a number of factors that the Commission is entitled to consider in its analysis, such as the size of the undertaking, the features of the activity (for instance, whether there are network effects or data-driven advantages and whether there is customer lock-in). However, nowhere does Article 3(8) provide that all factors be present, or that they be weighed against one another. It is explicit about the fact that it may take into account ‘some or all’ of them.[152]

To summarize, despite the alleged “technical challenges” that digital markets present to the methodology and procedures of antitrust, it remains much better suited to address any possible competition issues than regulation. As Richard Posner concluded more than 20 years ago, “antitrust doctrine is sufficiently supple, and sufficiently informed by economic theory, to cope effectively with the distinctive-seeming antitrust problems that the new economy presents.”[153]

C. Is Latin American Competition Law up to the Task?

The reality of antitrust enforcement in Latin America suggests an even more cautious approach. While the legal toolkit available to Latin American competition agencies is more or less the same as it is in Europe and the United States (that is, without approving DCRs or specific provisions for digital markets within competition law), such agencies’ experience and budgets is significantly more modest.

According to a 2019 OECD report, “competition authorities in Latin America and the Caribbean have dealt with very few enforcement cases involving digital platforms to date.”[154] A more recent report from Juan David Gutiérrez and Manuel Abarca confirms that finding:

Only Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay have conducted and finalised antitrust investigations in cases that involve digital markets. In other words, between 2015 and 2022, only 22 per cent of LAC’s jurisdictions studied in this research (five out of 23) adopted definitive decisions in antitrust cases in digital markets.[155]

Andrés Fuchs and Nader Mufdi similarly note that Latin American agencies have scant experience with antitrust enforcement in digital markets:

… the list of cases included in a recent report published by the Free Competition Program of the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile illustrates in a good way the differences that exist in number and content among cases that have taken place in Europe and the United States, and the LAC region as a whole. Certainly, beyond a couple of procedures carried out by the Conselho Administrativo de Defesa Econômica (CADE) against Google, in Latin America it has not been possible to find a case that challenges the large platforms that capture the attention of the authorities of the United States and Europe.

In short, if observed as a whole, the Latin American reality is still far from the major cases that draw the attention of the institutions, media and academia of the countries that have traditionally taken the lead in competition law. Although it is possible to observe the existence of a relevant number of cases that would include some digital component, the truth is that, both in quantity and relevance, the cases that we observe in Latin America differ considerably from the legal battles that today take place in the developed world. Certainly, the differences that persist in the cases of Latin America compared to those that have taken place in Europe and the United States are consistent with the lag experienced by digital markets in this part of the world compared to the economies in which, at date, its proliferation has been more significant.[156]

Of course, the relative scarcity of antitrust enforcement in digital markets is not necessarily negative; fewer cases initiated does not necessarily mean there has been underenforcement. It could very well be that there is not enough merit to initiate more antitrust cases in digital markets (i.e., that harmful behavior is being deterred or precluded by competition on the market), or that Latin American authorities can simply stand back and reap the benefits of enforcement initiatives elsewhere.

As Fuchs and Mufdi note, the differences in enforcement could be explained by the “lag” in these markets. Latin America does not have (perhaps apart from Mercado Libre, the Colombian delivery app Rappi, and some important actors in the digital-payments sector) many notable digital platforms that could plausibly initiate antitrust conflicts with “Big Tech” companies. It also does not have many major “complementors” to such companies (such as Yelp or Spotify) that could compete with them in their “niche” markets.

Another hypothesis is that Latin American agencies are using their (relatively scarce) resources efficiently and prioritizing the prosecution of cases in markets where the payoff could be better. Agencies already constrained by limited resources should prioritize that conduct that most harms consumers (such as cartels) and markets that could be “growth multipliers” like transportation and logistics. As the World Bank has emphasized:[157]

While there are many ways to promote competition, tackling cartels can yield immediate and tangible benefits, especially for poor households, with little risks of unintended consequences for the business environment. Worldwide, much of the recent policy dialogue on competition issues has focused on information technology, especially social networks and online commerce platforms, as well as the broader rise of global corporate market power. Policies designed to address the potential anticompetitive impacts of these developments are complex and risk undermining the business environment by weakening incentives for firms to innovate and grow. By contrast, cartels can be identified and eliminated, or prevented from forming, through relatively simple, well-established policies and enforcement mechanisms.

Despite the relatively small number of cases brought by competition agencies in Latin America, there are a few cases that allow us to conclude that, as in the EU, antitrust law can be used to address types of conduct covered by DCRs.

In Argentina, for instance, the National Commission for the Defense of Competition (CNDC, after its Spanish acronym) launched an investigation and issued interim measures ordering WhatsApp Inc. not to update its terms and conditions in ways that would allow sharing data collected through that platform with the other integrated platforms similarly owned by Meta—notably, Facebook and Instagram.[158] According to the decision, which applies “standard” Argentinian competition law, such conduct is an “unreasonable collection of data” that would be an “exploitative abuse of a dominant position” by Meta. The decision is not only similar to the Bundeskartellamt decision against Meta’s Facebook mentioned in Section 2B, but it also cites that decision. It is also similar to the data-sharing prohibition contained in Article 5.2(c) of the DMA.

The Brazilian Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE, after its Portuguese acronym) has been the most active agency in the region.[159] It initiated cases regarding the MFN clauses applied by online travel agencies (OTA) like Expedia do Brasil, Decolar.com and Booking.com.[160] This move resembled similar cases initiated in the European Union, and the prohibition of MFN clauses contained in Article 5.3 of the DMA. Brazil has also seen a “self-preferencing” case in which the e-commerce media group Informacao e Tecnologia Ltda. (owner of the price-comparison websites Buscapé and Bondfaro) alleged that Google was abusing its dominant position by favoring its own process-comparison service with a privileged position in search results.[161] Again, this was another case that resembled both a prior European competition-law case and a prohibition contained in the DMA and most DCRs.

While both cases were dismissed in the end, they were not dismissed on grounds that the facts in the case were outside the scope of competition law, or because it was exceedingly difficult to analyze those. They were dropped because the parties reached a settlement in the first case and because CADE determined that there were efficient alternatives to Google’s products and data in the second.[162] As mentioned, nothing in the substance or the procedural aspects of Latin American competition law should lead anyone to conclude that antitrust law cannot be used to address any potentially anticompetitive conduct by digital platforms.

Another important consideration when analyzing proposed DCRs in Latin America is the institutional constraints that Latin American competition agencies already face. In those jurisdictions that have approved DCRs, it has been necessary to create new offices or hire significantly more personnel to enforce these additional rules.[163] Agencies in Latin America already face significant budgetary and human-capital constraints to discharge their existing duties. As explained by a recent World Bank report:

LAC competition agencies are understaffed and underfunded compared to peers from other regions (figure 2.11). The average competition budget is lower in LAC than the OECD and significantly affected by a few larger jurisdictions in LAC with a particularly high competition budget.51 While budgets alone do not provide a flawless gauge of the region’s antitrust activity and agencies’ ideal size in staffing and budget is justifiably tied to the size of the local industry, these budget and staffing data offer insights into agencies’ capacity and positioning within governmental policy priorities.[164]

For example, INDECOPI, the Peruvian competition agency, has just 46 staff dedicated to enforcing antitrust laws (including merger control, market studies, and anticompetitive conduct). This amounts to only 1.4 staff per million inhabitants, significantly smaller than the OECD average of nine staff per million. The Latin American average is four staff per million inhabitants, which is more than Peru but still less than half the OECD average.[165]

Beyond the institutional constraints, Latin American competition agencies should probably focus on more humble priorities than “tame huge global digital platforms.” A recent World Bank report posits that competition may be the missing ingredient for growth in the region. It finds that competition is less vigorous in Latin American markets than in peer nations in other regions, with fewer ex-officio investigations, less use of leniency programs, and fewer dawn raids. This suggests that many cartels remain undetected.[166]

It would be wise to ensure that Latin American competition agencies have sufficient budgets and human capital to fulfill their existing mission before even considering assigning them new tasks.

III. Reforms to Address the Real Bottlenecks in Latin American Digital Markets

While digital markets in Latin America appear to be “reasonably competitive,” as noted in Section 1B, the region does not need to be complacent on this front. In line with the shortcomings and barriers identified in Section IA, much needs to be done to increase the positive impact that digital economies could have on the region’s welfare, productivity, and growth.

A 2019 OECD report about the digital transformation of Latin America lists a number of key policy areas that the countries in the region should consider:

…in order to create and maintain a healthy digital environment that promotes diversity and helps seize the benefits of the digital transformation, including productivity growth. These include: enhancing access to broadband networks to reduce digital divides, strengthening the diffusion of digital technologies, fostering healthy business dynamism and efficient resource reallocation to enable the growth of digitally intensive firms and SMEs, supporting the development of skills and finally, creating new opportunities for trade.[167] (emphasis in the original)

Among these potential reforms, the most urgent—especially considering the implementation time it would require—is to reform telecommunications regulation in order to promote more investment in infrastructure and universal access. While the number of people in Latin America with mobile-internet access has nearly doubled in recent years, significant gaps in coverage and usage remain. According to GSMA Intelligence:

Some 190 million people across the region (of the 230 million unconnected), in both urban and rural areas, live in locations with mobile internet network coverage but do not access the internet. Despite a continued decline in service prices, this usage gap remains due to a lack of affordability. Low income levels in some population segments are an important factor, but regressive, short-termist tax policies also artificially raise the price of internet connectivity for low-income populations.[168]

The World Bank Latin American Economic Outlook 2020 report also underscored that:

Access to broadband and connection quality remain uneven among and within LAC countries. There are several initiatives to improve connectivity, primarily in broadband, along with specific initiatives to facilitate infrastructure deployment by easing the rights of way.[169]

The report mentions that “regulatory frameworks must promote competition and investment arising from the increasing convergence of networks and services in the digital economy.”[170] But it also emphasizes that “a stable and predictable regulatory framework fosters long?term investment in communication infrastructure and digital innovation”[171] and that:

In a sector where return on investment is often measured in decades, guaranteeing regulatory stability, transparency and legal certainty helps firms prepare business plans and ultimately facilitates investment.[172]

The report also detailed several strategies to expand internet access and use for disadvantaged populations, both on the demand and supply side, which could be replicated in other countries:

On the demand side, Latin Americans have difficulty accessing the Internet, mostly owing to the cost of ICT devices and provider fees. Income inequality exacerbates affordability barriers, as low?income households tend to have a much lower income than the average (OECD/IDB, 2016). On the supply side, among other barriers, limited telecommunications infrastructure, tax burdens, inefficiencies in service provision, price distortions due to lack of competition and adequate regulation limit the reach of ICT services for a significant share of the population (West, 2015).

Supply?side initiatives that have increased Internet affordability include enhanced competition, effective broadband expansion strategies, efficient spectrum allocation and infrastructure?sharing models (A4AI, 2019). Peru’s Internet para Todos (Internet for all) aims to bring 4G mobile Internet access to 6 million people in more than 30 000 rural areas by the end of 2021. This partnership between Telefónica, Facebook, IDB (Inter?American Development Bank) Invest and CAF – Development Bank of Latin America – enables operators to use communication infrastructure to expand coverage in rural areas. Telefónica has 3 130 towers across Peru; Internet para Todos aims to install an additional 866 by 2021. This programme also constitutes a growth opportunity for Telefónica by offering the possibility to test new business models and technologies in new locations and potentially expand the customer base in new markets (MAEUEC, 2020). The long?term goal is to replicate the approach in other LAC countries, where some 100 million still have no Internet access (IDB, 2020).[173]

Another potential barrier to digital markets in Latin America (which often need the support of online-payment solutions) is financial inclusion:

Data from the World Bank shows that 55.1% of the Latin America and Caribbean population over 15 had an account with a financial institution or a mobile-money service provider in 2017. The distribution of account ownership however varies across countries ranging from 30% to over 70% in some countries (see Figure 3 below). In addition to a bank account, having a credit and/or a debit card are also important means to make purchases online. These means of payment remain relatively limited in Latin American and Caribbean countries, suggesting an important link between Fintech market development and access to e-commerce.[174]

Lotitto and Diaz also highlight this shortcoming:

A consistent feature of the marketplace landscape in the LAC region is the prevalence of websites that do not allow users to finalize transactions digitally. Most likely, this reflects gaps in the development and adoption of electronic payments solutions and integration of marketplaces with logistics solutions. These two dimensions are key to fully develop e-commerce ecosystems.[175]

Even more fundamental than improved physical infrastructure are the region’s deficiencies in basic “legal infrastructure” for entrepreneurship (property rights, contract enforcement, a proper rule of law). In his “The Mystery of Capital,” Hernando de Soto contemplated why only the United States has produced a Bill Gates, writing:

Apart from his personal genius, how much of his success is due to his cultural background and his “Protestant ethic”? And how much is due to the legal property system of the United States?

How many software innovations could he have made without patents to protect them? How many deals and long-term projects could he have carried without enforceable contracts? How many risks could he have taken at the beginning without limited liability systems and insurance policies?[176]

If Latin America wants entrepreneurs and creators like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Sergey Brin, Larry Page, or Mark Zuckerberg, the region’s governments must start with the essential reforms needed to establish a proper rule of law. The countries of Latin America should reform their judiciary and administrative procedures to protect property rights and enforce contracts effectively. They should create a friendly business environment, with less burdens and red tape, and better public services. Currently, the region is far from that standard. Chile is the best-positioned Latin American country in the World Bank’s “Ease of Doing Business” survey, ranking in 59th place.[177]

According to the OECD’s 2023 economic survey for Peru:

… weakness of the rule of law reduces the attractiveness of Peru’s business environment. A strong rule of law is supposed to not only protect private parties from arbitrary action and infringement of property rights by the state, but also to ensure a level playing field for economic interactions between private parties. It provides for security of property rights and contract enforcement (…), necessary incentives for private sector investment and innovation. However, in Peru, high corruption and unpredictable and inefficient judicial system result in weak de facto property rights, as perceived by the business community (…). The poor efficiency of the legal framework in settling disputes (…) limits businesses’ willingness to bear the risk of, for example, contracting with unknown business partners, or hiring formal workers given high legal uncertainty about the interpretation of strict employment protection regulations.[178]

Education and intellectual property also play important roles. Another OECD report focused on public policies to foster digital transformation noted that it is crucial to “(s)trengthen the diffusion of digital technologies and related practices and business models across the economy (…) fostering investment in tangible (machinery and equipment) and in intangible capital, notably in complementary assets such as skills, organizational changes, process innovation, intellectual property, R&D, new systems and new business models,”[179] as well as to “(s)upport the development of skills that people will need to succeed in the digital world of work, notably sound cognitive skills, ICT skills, specialist skills and the ability to cope with change and keep learning.”[180]

The OECD’s “Shaping the Digital Transformation” report suggested that “(p)olicies to promote ICT investment and the diffusion of digital toots should pay particular attention to the challenges faced by SMEs to adopt and benefit from ICTs”[181] and that “(t)o help SMEs overcome barriers to effective use of advanced digital tools, governments need to enhance support and better target policies to SMEs.” [182] Examples of such approaches include schemes to facilitate the adoption of tools that may be new to SMEs, like cloud computing; promoting better use of intellectual property and other intangibles (for instance, reducing the cost to register a brand); creating exemptions from certain rules for SMEs in order to facilitate regulatory compliance; and implementing programs to raise awareness of and create opportunities for linkages between SMEs and larger firms.[183]

Regarding education, the same report proposed:

Skills-enhancing programmes for youth that combine classroom teaching, workplace learning and job search services help young Latin Americans transition to employment. Training interventions for youth in the region, such as Jóvenes con más y mejor trabajo in Argentina, ProJovem in Brazil, Plan Nacional de Lenguas Digitales in Chile, Jóvenes en Acción in Colombia, Puntos Mexico Conectado in Mexico and ProJoven in Peru, prove that comprehensive interventions have positive results on youth employability, earnings and especially job quality (ILO, 2016a). Public spending in training programmes in LAC ranges from 0.02% of GDP in Peru to more than 0.30% in Colombia and Costa Rica, compared to an OECD average of 0.14%. At secondary and tertiary levels, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico and Peru are making significant advances in coverage, quality and adequacy of the programmes to meet the needs of the private sector.

Training programmes that respond to the needs of the marketplace, thanks to private sector participation in their design and implementation, facilitate youth’s transition into quality jobs and better earnings. Impact evaluations of the early experiences of these programmes in LAC show that coordinating course content with the private sector as well as providing participants with a stipend, are central for programmes to work well. Although foundational skills are important, individuals should be trained to participate in knowledge-based and skills-based economies. General education and TVET should expand their links with the region’s productive sector to underpin on-the-job-training systems, which should be a cornerstone of education and training across the life cycle.[184]

Upgrading human capital is paramount to maximizing technology’s benefits for productivity. But in addition to fostering specific skills, what is needed more generally is:

…improving Latin American youth’s skills involves strengthening the coverage and quality of the education system and promoting lifelong comprehensive skills-enhancing policies. Broader reforms of the education system are expected to increase access to, and quality and pertinences of, primary, secondary and tertiary education.[185]

IV. Conclusion

The case for ex-ante regulation of digital markets is weak, even in mature digital markets like the United States and Europe. It is weaker still in regions like Latin America, which do not present a general “lack of competition” problem or market failures in such markets. Some digital markets even show vibrant competition, as in the case of e-commerce, FinTech, ride-hailing, and food delivery.

Latin America has more pressing problems to address. Before even thinking of regulating digital markets, the region’s policymakers should be thinking about ways to attract companies operating in digital markets to invest in the region[186] and should facilitate the creation of new ones. For that, legal reform is indeed needed. But not to the antitrust laws, and certainly not to implement DCRs. The focus should instead be on policies like implementing proper “rule-of-law” mechanisms, removing regulatory barriers, improving access to infrastructure, increasing the use of telecommunications networks, and fostering better access to education (both in general and specifically regarding the proper skills to use digital products and services).

Rather than inviting a “Regulatory Reconquista” from Europe in the form of DMA-like regulation, Latin America should follow its own path. Before any new regulation is to be approved, Latin American policymakers should follow their own analysis and rationale. At the very least, Latin America should take a cautious “wait and see” approach to the DMA’s implementation in the EU, and the adjudication of major pending antitrust cases against digital platforms in both Europe and the United States.

[1] Jan Kleinheisterkamp, Latin America, Influence of European Private Law, in The Max Planck Encyclopedia of European Private Law (Jürgen Basedow et al., eds., 2012), at 1032.

[2] See Arturo J. Carrillo & Matías Jackson, Follow the Leader? A Comparative Law Study of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation’s Impact in Latin America, 16 Vienna J. Int’l Const. L. 177 (2022).

[3] See, e.g., Jian Jia, Ginger Zhe Jin, & Liad Wagman, The Short-Run Effects of GDPR on Technology Venture Investment (Nat’l Bureau of Econ. Research Working Paper No. 25248, 2019), https://ssrn.com/abstract=3278912; Garrett Johnson, Economic Research on Privacy Regulation: Lessons From the GDPR and Beyond, in The Economics of Privacy (Avi Goldfarb & Catherine Tucker eds., 2024); see also, more generally, Michal Gal & Oshrit Aviv, The Competitive Effects of the GDPR, 16 J. Competition L. & Econ. 349 (2020).

[4] Alfonso Miranda Londoño, Competition Law in Latin America. Main Trends and Features 5, Cent. Estud. Derecho Competencia (Apr. 2012), available at https://centrocedec.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/cornell-lacompetition-20123.pdf.

[5] Julian Peña, Las Políticas De Competencia en América Latina Post-Consenso de Washington, Cent. Compentencia (Mar. 31, 2021), at 7-8, available at https://centrocompetencia.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Julian-Pena.pdf.

[6] See Germán Coloma, The Argentine Competition Law and Its Enforcement, in Competition Law and Policy in Latin America (Eleanor Fox & Daniel Sokol, eds., 2009), at 94; Acts 11,210 and 12,906, from 1933 and 1946, respectively, were rarely enforced.

[7] Aida Sanchez Alonso, Brussels Looks to Regain Influence in Latin America, as Leaders’ Summit Begins, Euronews (Jul. 17, 2023), https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/07/17/brussels-looks-to-regain-influence-in-latin-america-as-leaders-summit-begins (“After eight years without any high-level summits, Europe wants to regain influence in the region, realising that the war in Ukraine has changed the rules of the game when it comes to geopolitics. China has also been massively investing in the region, something Brussels is looking to counter.”)

[8] Thibault Schrepel, The Expected Impact of “Great Power Competition” on Antitrust Policy, Network L. Rev. (May 17, 2023), https://www.networklawreview.org/great-power-competition.

[9] Regulation (EU) 2022/1925 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 September 2022 on Contestable and Fair Markets in the Digital Sector and Amending Directives (EU) 2019/1937 and (EU) 2020/1828, 2022 O.J. (L 265) 1 (hereinafter “DMA” or “Digital Markets Act”).

[10] Barbara Moens & Paola Tamma, Macron and Merkel Defy Brussels with Push for Industrial Champions, POLÍTICO EU (May 18, 2020), https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-and-merkel-defy-brussels-with-push-for-industrial-champions.

[11] Meredith Broadbent, Implications of the Digital Markets Act for Transatlantic Cooperation, Cent’r for Strategic & Int’l Studies (Sep. 15, 2021), at 19, https://www.csis.org/analysis/implications-digital-markets-act-transatlantic-cooperation.

[12] The term “digital competition regulation” or “DCR” will be used to differentiate the ex-ante regulation of digital markets for purposes connected (even if only purportedly) to competition from other regulations intended to serve other policy goals, such as the General Data Protection Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2016/679) or the EU AI Act. DCRs include both extant rules and those currently under consideration. Context on legislative status will be provided where available and appropriate.

[13] Lazar Radic, Geoffrey A. Manne, & Dirk Auer, Regulate for What? A Closer Look at the Rationales and Goals of Digital Competition Regulations, Int’l Ctr. L. Econ. (Aug. 1, 2024), forthcoming 22 Berkeley Bus. L.J., https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4929628.

[14] See Press Release, Países de la Comunidad Andina Dialogaron Sobre Libre Competencia Comunictaria y Mercados Digitales, Comunidad Andina (Nov. 28, 2022), https://www.comunidadandina.org/notas-de-prensa/paises-de-la-comunidad-andina-dialogaron-sobre-libre-competencia-comunitaria-y-mercados-digitales (free translation of the following text in Spanish: “Estamos seguros de que esta iniciativa fortalecerá a nivel regional el conocimiento especializado de los mercados digitales y la aplicación en la normativa comunitaria para la investigación y sanción por prácticas anticompetitivas y de abuso de posición de dominio en la región andina, sin perjuicio, de evaluar la posible elaboración de una normativa exclusiva para mercados digitales, como parte de nuestra agenda.”)

[15] Estrategia Digital, Com. Fed. Competencia Econ. (COFECE), (Mar. 30, 2020), available at https://www.cofece.mx/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/EstrategiaDigital_V10.pdf.

[16] Initially proposed as part of the final report of the UK’s Digital Competition Expert Panel (also known as the “Furman report”), a Digital Markets Unit is authorized to be created within the Competition and Markets Authority by virtue of the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Bill. See Jason Furman et al., Unlocking Digital Competition: Report of the Digital Competition Expert Panel (Mar. 2019), available at https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5c88150ee5274a230219c35f/unlocking_digital_competition_furman_review_web.pdf.

[17] COFECE, supra note 15, at 12.

[18] Estudio de Mercado del Sector Fintech en el Peru, Inst. Nac. Def. Competencia Prot. Prop. Intelect. (INDECOPI), (Sep. 30, 2023), at 138-139, available at https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/document/file/6215160/5476585-estudio-de-mercado-del-sector-fintech-en-peru.pdf?v=1713476412.

[19] PL 2768/2022, Dispõe Sobre a Organização, o Funcionamento e a Operação das Plataformas Digitais Que Oferecem Serviços ao Público Brasileiro e dá Outras Providências, Câmara dos Deputados (Nov. 10, 2022), available at https://www.camara.leg.br/proposicoesWeb/fichadetramitacao?idProposicao=2337417.

[20] Id. at 9 (free translation of the following text in Portuguese: “Já na Comissão Europeia, o ‘Digital Markets Act,’ direcionado aos chamados ‘controladores de acesso’ (gatekeepers) no mundo digital, é bastante detalhado e foi aprovado em 2022. Acreditamos que cabe introduzir uma regulação na linha da Comissão Européia, mas de forma bem menos detalhada. Isso porque estamos lidando com questões de extrema relevância, que exigem respostas regulatórias bem mais rápidas do que o que é possível na defesa da concorrência, mas suficientemente novas para indicar não ser cabível colocar uma camisa de força ex-ante nos agentes econômicos, com uma série de proibições absolutas.”)

[21] Plataformas Digitais: Aspectos Economicos e Concorrenciais e Recomendacoes para Aprimoramentos Regulatórios No Brasil, Minist. Fazenda (Oct. 10, 2024), available at https://www.gov.br/fazenda/pt-br/central-de-conteudo/publicacoes/relatorios/relatorio-plataformas-consolidado.pdf.

[22] Economía Digital Para el Cambio Estructural y la Igualdad, Econ. Comm. Lat. Am. Caribb. (ECLAC), (2013), at 97, available at https://repositorio.cepal.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/ce419364-f83a-4ef3-a9dd-91c9c295b273/content (free translation of the following text in Spanish: “Después de dos décadas de implementación de políticas que han enfatizado el desarrollo de la infraestructura, el acceso a Internet y la difusión de las TIC, la evidencia muestra una importante participación de la economía digital en el PIB. Estimaciones de la CEPAL indican que, en promedio para Argentina, Brasil, Chile y México, alcanza al menos a 3,2%, cifra no despreciable si se considera que en los 27 países de la Unión Europea el porcentaje correspondiente es 5%.”)

[23] Id. at 39.

[24] Id.

[25] Id.

[26] Latin American Economic Outlook 2020: Digital Transformation for Building Back Better, Organ. Econ. Co-oper. Dev. (Sep. 24, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1787/e6e864fb-en.

[27] Id. at 83.

[28] Id. at 94.

[29] Metodología del Índice de Desarrollo del Ecosistema Digital (IDED), Banco Desarro. Am. Lat. Caribe (Jan. 2017), available at https://scioteca.caf.com/bitstream/handle/123456789/1052/METODOLOGIA%20DE%20IDED.pdf.

[30] OECD, supra note 26, at 96.

[31] Individuals Using the Internet (% of population) – Latin America & Caribbean, World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.NET.USER.ZS?locations=ZJ (last visited Sep. 29, 2024).

[32] OECD, supra note 26, at 96.

[33] Id. at 127-128.

[34] Shaping the Digital Transformation in Latin America: Strengthening Productivity, Improving Lives, Organ. Econ. Co-oper. Dev. (2019), at 17, https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/8bb3c9f1-en.pdfexpires=1727657393&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=15F0525182C411C03A98395D05010716.

[35] Id. at 57.

[36] Id. at 13.

[37] Id. at 75.

[38] Id. at 75-76.

[39] In Section 2A, we explain why regulation of digital markets is not warranted under the standard “market failure rationale.”

[40] See, infra, Section 2.

[41] The DMA Art. 2(2) defines “core platform services” as including: online intermediation services, online search engines, online social-networking services, video-sharing platform services; number-independent interpersonal communications services; operating systems; web browsers; virtual assistants; cloud-computing services; and online advertising services, including any advertising networks, advertising exchanges, and any other advertising-intermediation services provided by an undertaking that provides any of the abovementioned core platform services.

[42] Other than the legal research and the advocacy reports by competition agencies cited in Section 2C.

[43] Richard A. Posner & William M. Landes, Market Power in Antitrust Cases, 94 Harv. L. Rev. 937, 947-951 (1980).

[44] Search Engine Market Share South America– August 2024, Statcounter, https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share/all/south-america (last visited Sep. 29, 2024).

[45] In 2014, it had nearly the same market share, 93.25%; see Search Engine Market Share South America– Jan – Dec 2014, Statcounter, https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share/all/south-america/2014 (last visited Sep. 29, 2024).

[46] Desktop Operating System Market Share South America, Statcounter, https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/south-america (last visited Sep. 30, 2024).

[47] Id.

[48] Mobile Operating System Market Share South America- Aug 2023-Aug 2024, Statcounter, https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/mobile/south-america (last visited Sep. 30, 2024).

[49] Imed Bouchrika, Mobile vs Desktop Usage Statistics for 2024, Research.com (Jun. 13, 2024), https://research.com/software/mobile-vs-desktop-usage.

[50] Jonathan Barnett, Illusions of Dominance: Revisiting the Market Power Assumption in Platform Ecosystems, 86 Antitrust L. J. 1, 13 (2024).

[51] See note 100 and accompanying text.

[52] Social Media Stats South America- Aug 2023-Aug 2024, Statcounter, https://gs.statcounter.com/social-media-stats/all/south-america (last visited Sep. 29, 2024). Computation of market-shares statistics does not include TikTok, but does include YouTube.

[53] Matteo Ceurvels, Facebook and Twitter Poised to Shed Users in Latin America, Emarketer (Apr. 10, 2023), https://www.emarketer.com/content/facebook-twitter-due-shed-users-latin-america.

[54] See Katharina Buchholz, The Rapid Rise of TikTok, Statista (Oct. 7, 2022), www.statista.com/chart/28412/social-media-users-by-network-amo.

[55] Estefanía Lotitto & Bernardo Díaz de Astarloa, The Landscape of B2C E-Commerce Marketplaces in Latin America and the Caribbean, Econ. Comm. Lat. Am. Caribb. (ECLAC), (2023), at 13, https://www.cepal.org/es/node/58098.

[56] Id. at 32.

[57] Latin American and Caribbean Competition Forum – Session III: Practical Approaches to Assessing Digital Platform Markets for Competition Law Enforcement, Organ. Econ. Co-oper. Dev. (Sep. 2019), at 12, available at https://one.oecd.org/document/DAF/COMP/LACF(2019)4/en/pdf.

[58] See Landes & Posner, supra note 43, at 950. Jonathan Barnett makes a similar point regarding cloud computing: “Regulators assert that cloud providers have natural incentives to exploit locked-in users. In a market in which users can multihome across cloud providers and retain data on-premises, this assertion does not withstand scrutiny. A provider that extracts immediate gains by degrading the quality of service for existing clients—an observable signal of provider opportunism—would be short-sighted since it would likely sacrifice a far larger stream of future gains as a result of decreased usage by existing clients and lost usage from potential clients. Given that the cloud market is still in its relatively early stages, the number of potential clients that have not yet migrated to cloud based data services almost certainly exceeds by a large measure the number of existing clients.” See Barnett, supra note 50, at 47.

[59] See Hovenkamp, infra note 92 and accompanying text; see also Daniel D. Sokol & Jingyuan (Mary) Ma, Understanding Online Markets and Antitrust Analysis, 15 Nw. J. Tech. & Intell. Prop. 43 (2017).

[60] Raymundo Campos, Alejandro Castañeda, Aurora Ramírez, & Carlos Ruiz, Amazon’s Effect on Prices: The Case of Mexico (El Colegio de Me?xico, Centro de Estudios Econ. Working Paper No. II-2022, 2022), available at https://cee.colmex.mx/dts/2022/DT-2022-2.pdf.

[61] OECD, supra note 57 at 13.

[62] Aeropost Ingresó a Competir en el Mercado de E-Commerce en el Perú, Semana Económica (Nov. 23, 2023), https://semanaeconomica.com/sectores-empresas/comercio/aeropost-ingreso-a-competir-en-el-mercado-de-e-commerce-en-el-peru.

[63] Id.

[64] OECD, supra note 57, at 114-15.

[65] See INDECOPI, supra note 18, at 24-25.

[66] Bas B. Bakker et al., The Rise and Impact of Fintech in Latin America, Fintech Notes (2023), https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/063/2023/003/article-A001-en.xml.

[67] Id.

[68] The Future Is Bright for Latin American Startups, The Economist (Nov. 13, 2023), https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/the-future-is-bright-for-latin-american-startups.

[69] Id.

[70] Guilherme Mendes Resende & Ricardo Carvalho de Andrade Lima, Evaluating the Competition Effects of Uber’s Entry into the Brazilian Incumbent Cab-Hailing App Segment, 14 J. Competition L. & Econ. 608–637 (2018), https://academic.oup.com/jcle/article-abstract/14/4/608/5528532; Juan David Gutiérrez & Manuel Abarca, Mind the Gap: Assessing Ride-Hailing Apps in Latin America and the Caribbean, Kluwer Competition L. Blog (Mar. 17, 2023), https://competitionlawblog.kluwercompetitionlaw.com/2023/03/17/mind-the-gap-assessing-ride-hailing-apps-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean.

[71] Scott Beyer, Latin America’s Food Delivery Wars, Catalyst (May 8, 2023), https://catalyst.independent.org/2023/05/08/latam-delivery.

[72] COFECE, supra note 15, at 6 (free translation of the following text in Spanish: “Hasta el momento, la llegada de algunos gigantes tecnológicos a los mercados mexicanos ha generado presión competitiva para las empresas tradicionales. Por ejemplo, la creciente actividad de empresas como Google y Facebook en el mercado de la publicidad puede tener como efecto que importantes empresas establecidas en este mercado enfrenten mayor competencia y trabajen arduamente por satisfacer las demandas de sus consumidores. Algo similar podría suceder en sectores como el de ventas al por menor, finanzas, movilidad y entretenimiento, cuyos mercados tradicionales presentan importantes niveles de concentración, y que con la llegada de empresas como Amazon, Uber, Cabify, Didi, diversas Fintech, Apple y Netflix podrían beneficiarse del proceso de competencia.”)

[73] Esteban Greco & María Fernanda Viecens, Economía Digital en América Latina: Reflexiones Sobre las Concentraciones Económicas en la Región, 21 Revista de Derecho Administrativo 146, 158-159 (2022), (free translation of the following text in Spanish: “Los jugadores digitales actúan como oferentes disruptivos respecto de los jugadores tradicionales. En diversos mercados se observa que son los desarrollos digitales los que ejercen presión competitiva sobre el mercado, y los que proveen productos novedosos y alternativas tecnológicas, resultando que el proceso competitivo incluye tanto a jugadores tradicionales como digitales. Entonces, en tales casos, más que mercados digitales se observan jugadores digitales irrumpiendo en mercados tradicionales y ejerciendo presión competitiva sobre oferentes establecidos.”)

[74] Giuseppe Colangelo, Evaluating the Case for Regulation of Digital Platforms, in The Gai Report on the Digital Economy (2020), at 905.

[75] Id. at 905-906.

[76] See Analytical Note on the G7 Inventory of New Rules for Digital Markets Organ. Econ. Co-Oper. Dev. (2023), available at https://www.oecd.org/competition/analytical-note-on-the-G7-inventory-of-new-rules-for-digital-markets-2023.pdf.

[77] See Bruce H. Kobayashi & Joshua D. Wright, Antitrust and Ex-Ante Sector Regulation, in The GAI Report on the Digital Economy (2020), at 869, Table 1; see also Pablo Ibañez Colomo, The New EU Competition Law (2023), at 125. (“The path eventually chosen by the Commission and the EU legislature is the enactment of sector-specific legislation, comparable in several respects to the one that applies to telecommunications and energy (electricity and gas) activities. At least formally speaking, the DMA is not a competition law regime. In fact, the Preamble itself is explicit about the role of the regulatory apparatus as a complement to Articles 101 and 102 TFEU.”)

[78] Colangelo, supra note 74, at 927-928; see also Radic, Manne, & Auer, supra note 12.

[79] Colangelo, supra note 74, at 914.

[80] See Robert Cooter & Tomas Ulen, Law and Economics (3d. ed., 2000), at 40-43; W. Kip Viscusi, Joseph E. Harrington Jr. & John M. Vernon, Economics of Regulation and Antitrust (4d. ed., 2005), 376-379.

[81] Henry Butler, Christopher R. Drahozal & Joanna Shepherd, Economic Analysis for Lawyers (3d. ed. 2014), at 125-126.

[82] Stephen Breyer, Regulation and its Reform (1982), at 15.

[83] Butler et al., supra note 81, at 26; Cooter & Ulen, supra note 80, at 40-43; Viscusi et al., supra note 80.

[84] See Breyer, supra note 82; see also Regulatory Impact Assessment: OECD Best Practice Principles for Regulatory Policy, Organ. Econ. Co-oper. Dev. (Feb. 25, 2020), https://doi.org/10.1787/7a9638cb-en.

[85] Thomas Lambert, Tech Platforms and Market Power: What’s the Optimal Policy Response? (Mercatus Ctr. Working Paper, 2021), at 14, tech-platforms-and-market-power-whats-optimal-policy-response.

[86] Radic, Manne, & Auer, supra note 12, at 21.

[87] See DMA, recitals 2-5.

[88] See Colangelo, supra note 74.

[89] See DMA, recital 2.

[90] See Breyer, supra note 82.

[91] Cooter & Ulen, supra note 80, at 40. (“The public policies for correcting the shortcomings of monopoly are to replace monopoly with competition where possible, or to regulate the price charged by the monopolist. The first policy is the rationale for the antitrust laws. But sometimes is not possible or even desirable to replace a monopoly. Natural monopolies, such as public utilities, are an example; those monopolies are allowed to continue in existence but government regulates their prices.”)

[92] Herbert Hovenkamp, Antitrust and Platform Monopoly, 130 Yale L. J. 1952, 1978 (2021).

[93] Richard Posner, Antitrust Law (2nd. ed., 2001), 248-250.

[94] Lambert, supra note 85, at 24-25.

[95] Id.

[96] Jonathan Barnett, Does the European Union’s Digital Markets Act Provide an Appropriate Model for Maintaining Competition in California’s Innovation Economy? (report commissioned by the Chamber of Progress, Dec. 2023), at 17, available at http://www.clrc.ca.gov/pub/2024/MM24-05.pdf.

[97] Id.

[98] Francesco Ducci, Natural Monopolies in Digital Platform Markets (2020).

[99] Id. at 73.

[100] Id. at 74.

[101] Id. at 95.

[102] Id. at 124.

[103] David S. Evans & Richard Schmalensee, Debunking the “Network Effects” Bogeyman, 40 Regulation 36, 39 (2017-2018), available at https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/regulation/2017/12/regulation-v40n4-1.pdf.

[104] Christopher Yoo, Network Effects in Action, in The GAI Report on the Digital Economy (2020), at 191, available at https://gaidigitalreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Yoo-Network-Effects-in-Action.pdf.

[105] Jean Tirole, Competition and the Industrial Challenge for the Digital Age, 15 Annual Rev. Econ. 573, 581 (2023), https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-economics-090622-024222.

[106] Foo Yun Chee, Watchdog Highlights Shortcomings in EU Rules to Curb Tech Companies, Reuters (Dec. 21, 2020), https://www.reuters.com/article/business/watchdog-highlights-shortcomings-in-eu-rules-to-curb-tech-companies-idUSKBN28V1KR.

[107] See The Evolving Concept of Market Power in the Digital Economy – Summaries of Contributions, Organ. Econ. Co-oper. Dev. (Jun. 22, 2022), available at https://one.oecd.org/document/DAF/COMP/WD(2022)63/en/pdf.

[108] Herbert Hovenkamp, Antitrust and Platform Monopoly, 130 Yale L. J. 1952, 1956 (2021).

[109] Lazar Radic, Digital-Market Regulation: One Size Does Not Fit All, Truth Mark. (Apr.17, 2023), https://truthonthemarket.com/2023/04/17/digital-market-regulation-one-size-does-not-fit-all.

[110] Alba Ribera, La Regulación de los Ecosistemas Digitales Frente a las Relaciones Complejas de los Operadores Económicos, Centro Competencia, (May 10, 2023), https://centrocompetencia.com/regulacion-ecosistemas-digitales-relaciones-complejas-operadores-economicos (free translation of the original text in Spanish: “Uno de los mayores ejemplos de la dicotomía que se erige entre los distintos tipos de consecuencias que se pueden generar por la captura regulatoria de los ecosistemas digitales lo podemos encontrar en la reciente decisión de Meta, de no lanzar su nuevo servicio Threads en el Espacio Económico Europeo. En la medida en que su servicio podría interpretarse de forma que cayera dentro de la definición de un ‘servicio básico de plataforma’ perteneciente a la categoría de redes sociales en línea’ (listada por la LMD), Meta decidió abstenerse de entrar en el mercado europeo, por la carga desproporcionada que le supondría las exigentes obligaciones impuestas por la LMD. Cabe notar que Threads es aún un servicio entrante en el mercado de redes sociales en línea, en contraste con la posición predominante ocupada por la actual (anteriormente conocida como Twitter). De esta forma, observamos que la categorización como servicio básico de plataforma unifica y elimina todos los matices que el propio juego de la libre competencia opera respecto de servicios entrantes en los mercados.”); The service was made available in the European Union later in the year. See Imram Rahman-Jones & Tome Gerken, Threads: Meta’s Rival to Elon Musk’s X Launches in EU, Br. Broadcast. Corp. (Dec. 14, 2023), https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-67695643.

[111] Radic, supra note 109 (“While perhaps the EU—the world’s third largest economy—can afford to impose costly and burdensome regulation on digital companies because it has considerable leverage to ensure (with some, though as we have seen, by no means absolute, certainty) that they will not desert the European market, smaller economies that are unlikely to be seen by GAMA as essential markets are playing a different game.”)

[112] See Press Release, Facebook and Instagram to Offer Subscription for No Ads in Europe, Meta (Oct. 30, 2023), https://about.fb.com/news/2023/10/facebook-and-instagram-to-offer-subscription-for-no-ads-in-europe.

[113] See GDP Per Capita, Current Prices, Int’l. Monet. Fund, https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/WE (last visited Sep. 29, 2024).

[114] See Geoffrey Manne & Dirk Auer, Brussels Effect or Brussels Defect: Digital Regulation in Emerging Markets, Truth Mark. (Dec. 20, 2022), https://truthonthemarket.com/2022/12/20/brussels-effect-or-brussels-defect-digital-regulation-in-emerging-markets. The argument presented is about South Africa, but may be even more relevant to Latin America.

[115] Ke Rong, D. Daniel Sokol, Di Zhou, & Feng Zhu, Antitrust Platform Regulation and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from China (Harvard Business Sch. Tech & Operations Mgt. Unit Working Paper No. 24-039, USC Class Research Paper No. 24-16, 2024), https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4697283.

[116] Anti-Monopoly Guidelines, State Counc. People’s Repub. China, https://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-02/07/content_5585758.htm (last visited Dec. 20, 2024). The Chinese anti-monopoly guidelines for the platform economy do not include all the obligations and prohibitions included in digital market regulations like the DMA, but they do regulate “unfair price practices” and whether some “relevant platforms are necessary facilities.”

[117] Rong, Sokol, Zhou, & Zhu, supra note 115, at 13.

[118] Mario Draghi, The Future of European Competitiveness, Eur. Comm. (Sep. 2024), https://commission.europa.eu/topics/strengthening-european-competitiveness/eu-competitiveness-looking-ahead_en.

[119] Id., at 79.

[120] Id., at 8.

[121] Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Nicolás Fernández-Arias, The Latin American Growth Shortfall: Productivity and Inequality, (UNDP LAC Working Paper Series, Mar. 2021), at 4, 8, https://www.undp.org/latin-america/publications/latin-american-growth-shortfall-productivity-and-inequality.

[122] National Accounts Data Files, World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?end=2023&locations=US-BR-MX-AR-PA-PE-CL-CO&name_desc=false&start=1961&view=chart (last visited Mar. 9, 2025).

[123] Colangelo, supra note 74, at 930.

[124] While acknowledging the relative “slowness” of antitrust procedures and these may be more relevant for Latin America, see Lambert, supra note 85, at 17. (“It is important, however, not to overstate these limitations. As precedents develop, antitrust becomes both more determinate (as business planners, enforcers, and courts may look to past judgments to predict how courts will assess the reasonableness of a challenged practice) and faster (as the growing pattern of precedents deters conduct likely to generate an adverse judgment). In the early days of new business models and market structures, legal expectations are unclear, and adjudication is required to establish them. As precedents develop around novel markets and practices, antitrust’s directives become clearer and generate more immediate effects.”)

[125] Regulators often run the risk of condemning business practices and models that they don’t fully understand; even the businesses that implement them don’t always fully know or understand the impact of such practices. See Frank Easterbrook, The Limits of Antitrust, 63 Tex. L. Rev. 1 (1984).

[126] Press Release, Commission Opens Non-Compliance Investigations Against Alphabet, Apple and Meta Under the Digital Markets Act, Eur. Comm. (Mar. 25, 2024), https://digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu/commission-opens-non-compliance-investigations-against-alphabet-apple-and-meta-under-digital-markets-2024-03-25_en.

[127] See notes 107 and 108 and accompanying text.

[128] Radic, Manne, & Auer, supra note 12, at. 69.

[129] See Giuseppe Colangelo & Oscar Borgogno, App Stores as Public Utilities? Truth Mark. (Jan. 19, 2022), https://truthonthemarket.com/2022/01/19/app-stores-as-public-utilities.

[130] Randal Picker, Prepared of Randal Picker, Investigation into the State of Competition in the Digital Market Place, U.S. House Judic. Subcomm. Antitrust Commer. Adm. Law (May 11, 2020), at 31, available at https://picker.uchicago.edu/PickerHouseStatement.100.pdf.

[131] S.2992 – American Innovation and Choice Online Act, 117th Congress (2021-2022), https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/2992/text.

[132] See Jeremy Torres, Pourquoi Google Maps ne Fonctionne Plus Directement Dans la Recherche Google, Liberation (last updated Mar. 5, 2024), https://www.liberation.fr/economie/pourquoi-google-maps-ne-fonctionne-plus-directement-dans-la-recherche-google-et-comment-y-remedier-20240304_2WCOEUZ5IJADFMSTFPQXY2KBTA.

[133] Thomas A. Lambert, AICOA Is Neither Urgently Needed Nor Good: A Response to Professors Scott Morton, Salop, and Dinielli, Truth Mark. (Jul. 25, 2022), https://truthonthemarket.com/2022/07/25/aicoa-is-neither-urgently-needed-nor-good-a-response-to-professors-scott-morton-salop-and-dinielli.

[134] Kobayashi & Wright, supra note 77, at 869-870. Kobayashi and Wright acknowledge that “this advantage may not be important when such heterogeneity is minimal or when it cannot be predicted ex-ante by the regulated firms. Moreover, the absence of effective ex-post remedies may favor the ex-ante approach even with heterogeneity.” As we explain in Section 2B, digital markets are heterogeneous.

[135] Lambert, supra note 124, at 14 (“Because they are more rigid and prescriptive than antitrust’s flexible standards, and thus less likely to be appropriate for a broad range of diverse firms, ex ante rules addressing market power concerns tend to be limited in scope. They are usually tailored for a particular industry or group of firms. Antitrust’s standards are focused on ends rather than specific means, and are therefore less likely to ‘misfire’ when applied broadly.”).

[136] Posner, supra note 93, at 39 (“Rules are generally simpler and cheaper to enforce than standards and provide clearer guidance both to the people subject to them and to the courts that administer them. But they are often either underinclusive or overinclusive, and sometimes they are both at the same time. They are especially apt to fail as a sensible method of lawmaking when the relation of the rule’s purpose to the fact of facts that it makes determinative or legality is unclear. In such cases, the decision whether to characterize the case as falling within the domain of the rule may depend on the same factors that would determine legality under a standard.”).

[137] Even in civil-law countries (as most, if not all, countries in Latin America are), antitrust laws are generally designed as ex-post rules with general prohibitions. While some specific practices may be listed as anticompetitive, courts and competition agencies have circumscribed, through the caselaw, the precise boundaries of anticompetitive behavior.

[138] Geoffrey A. Manne, Error Costs in Digital Markets, in The Gai Report On The Digital Economy (2020), at 38-39.

[139] Id.

[140] Barnett, supra note 96, at 15.

[141] Jacques Crémer, Yves-Alexandre De Montjoye, & Heike Schweitzer, Competition Policy for The Digital Era, Eur. Comm. (2019), at 126.

[142] Id. at 70.

[143] Giuseppe Colangelo, The Digital Markets Act and EU Antitrust Enforcement: Double & Triple Jeopardy, Int’l Ctr. L. Econ. (Mar. 23, 2022), at 7, available at the-digital-markets-act-and-eu-antitrust-enforcement-double-triple-jeopardy.

[144] Case B6-22/16 Facebook, Bundeskartellamt (Feb. 6, 2019), available at https://www.bundeskartellamt.de/SharedDocs/Entscheidung/EN/Entscheidungen/Missbrauchsaufsicht/2019/B6-22-16.pdf.

[145] Case AT.40153, E-book MFNs and Related Matters (Amazon), Eur. Comm. (May 4, 2017), available at https://ec.europa.eu/competition/antitrust/cases/dec_docs/40153/40153_4392_3.pdf.

[146] Case AT.39740 Google Search (Shopping), Eur. Comm. (Jun. 27, 2017), available at https://ec.europa.eu/competition/antitrust/cases/dec_docs/39740/39740_14996_3.pdf.

[147] Radic, Manne, & Auer, supra note 12, at 33.

[148] Lambert, supra note 85,  at 53-54.

[149] Dennis W. Carlton & Randall C. Picker, Antitrust and Regulation (Nat’l Bureau Econ. Research Working Paper No. 12902, 2007), at 50-51, available at, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w12902/w12902.pdf. (“Regulation created numerous inefficiencies and benefited special groups. In response to criticisms of regulation, antitrust either completely or partially replaced regulation and antitrust was used as a complement and sometimes as a constraint on regulators in many industries. The deregulated network industries that we examined all show a similar pattern: after deregulation, there is massive consolidation, a lessening of the reliance on interconnection from other firms, a decline in either wages or employment or both, and a fall in prices with a reduction or end to any cross subsidy. Consumers benefit, special interests are harmed… The relative advantages and disadvantages of each mechanism became clearer over time. Regulation produced cross-subsidies and favors to special interests, but was able to specify prices and specific rules of how firms should deal with each other. Antitrust, especially when it became economically coherent within the past 30 years or so, showed itself to be reasonably good at promoting competition, avoiding the favoring of special interests, but not good at formulating specific rules for particular industries.”)

[150] Tirole, supra note 105, at 580.

[151] Ibañez Colomo, supra note 78, at 131.

[152] Id.

[153] Posner, supra note 93, at 256. (Posner does acknowledge that “the institutional structure of antitrust enforcement” could be troublesome when applying antitrust laws to the “new economy.” But he suggests addressing those difficulties within the realm of antitrust law, with some reforms to streamline procedures and allow the use of more technical expertise.)

[154] OECD, supra note 57, at 6.

[155] Juan David Gutiérrez & Manuel Abarca, Challenges to Competition and Innovation in Digital Markets. Insights from Latin American cases, in Digital Platforms, Competition Law, and Regulation: Comparative Perspectives (Kalpana Tyagi, et al. eds., 2024), at 164-165. (These figures do not include merger-control cases or advocacy reports, where the authors found that “… in the same period, LAC’s competition authorities assessed a significant number of digital markets cases in their merger control processes and advocacy activities. Merger control cases that involve digital markets were assessed in 43 per cent of the jurisdictions with mandatory merger control (six out of 14). The jurisdictions that dealt with digital merger cases were Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, and Mexico. Competition advocacy reports, market studies and competition assessments of regulatory projects related to digital markets were published in 48 per cent of LAC’s jurisdictions studied in this chapter (11 out of 23). These are Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. Furthermore, the explicit prioritisation of a ‘digital antitrust agenda’ by the competition agencies of Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru may render additional cases soon.”)

[156] Andrés Fuchs & Nader Mufdi, Derecho de la Competencia y Regulación de Mercados Digitales: Desafíos y Propuestas para Latinoamérica, Diàlogos Cent. Competencia (Jul. 2021), at 12, available at https://centrocompetencia.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Fuchs-y-Mufdi-Derecho-de-la-Competencia-y-Regulacion-de-mercado-digitales-Desafios-y-Propuestas-para-Latinoamerica.pdf.

[157] Fixing Markets, Not Prices: Policy Options to Tackle Economic Cartels in Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank (2021), at 8, available at https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/148021625810668365/pdf/Fixing-Markets-Not-Prices-Policy-Options-to-Tackle-Economic-Cartels-in-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.pdf.

[158] Dictamen Firma Conjunta Número, Com. Nac. Def. Competencia (2021), at 56, available at https://www.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/2017/02/cond_1767.pdf.

[159] See Luiz Azevedo de Almeida Hoffmann & Rafael Rossini Parisi, Abuse of Dominance in Digital Markets – Contribution from Brazil (Session II, OECD Global Forum on Competition, Dec. 2020), available at https://cdn.cade.gov.br/Relatoriorios%20de%20gestao/2020/Cap.%201/Abuse%20of%20dominance%20in%20digital%20markets.pdf.

[160] See Administrative Inquiry No. 08700.005679/2016-13 (Braz.).

[161] See Administrative Proceeding No. 08012.0101483/2011-94 (Braz.).

[162] Almeida & Parisi, supra note 159, at 5.

[163] See Dirk Auer & Lazar Radic, The Legacy of Neo-Brandeisianism: History or Footnote?, Network L. Rev. (Jul. 9, 2024), https://www.networklawreview.org/auer-radic-brandeisianism. (“For example, in 2021 the UK created a “Digital Markets Unit” (DMU) within the Competition and Markets Authority, which is now charged with enforcing the DMCC. The DMU’s headcount is set to rise from 70 in 2022 to 200 by the end of 2024. For its part, the EU currently has 80 staff assigned to enforce the DMA.”)

[164] Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Review, April 2024 – Competition: The Missing Ingredient for Growth?, World Bank (Apr. 2024), at 48, available at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/184bce21-8fec-4b14-acad-9ee256e7db93/download.

[165] OECD Economic Surveys: Peru 2023, Organ. Econ. Co-Oper. Dev. (2023), at 62, https://doi.org/10.1787/081e0906-en.

[166] World Bank, supra note 156, at 49.

[167] OECD, supra note 34, at 4.

[168] Pau Castellas, Lucrecia Corvalan, & Facundo Rattel, Connectivity Gaps in Latin America. A Roadmap for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and Ecuador, GSMA Intell. (Mar. 2023), available at https://www.gsma.com/latinamerica/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/FINAL-Brechas-de-conectividad-en-America-Latina_-LONG-report-ENGLISH-DIGITAL-30-03-2023.pdf.

[169] OECD, supra note 26, at 98.

[170] Id. at 174.

[171] Id. at 175.

[172] Id.

[173] Id. at 126.

[174] OECD, supra note 57, at 13-14.

[175] Lotitto & Diaz, supra note 55, at 32

[176] Hernando De Soto, The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else (2000), 223-224.

[177] Ease of Doing Business Rankings, World Bank (2020), available at https://archive.doingbusiness.org/content/dam/doingBusiness/pdf/db2020/Doing-Business-2020_rankings.pdf.

[178] OECD, supra note 157, at 1.

[179] Shaping the Digital Transformation in Latin America: Strengthening Productivity, Improving Lives, Organ. Econ. Co-Oper. Dev. (2019), at 8, available at https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/science-and-technology/shaping-the-digital-transformation-in-latin-america_8bb3c9f1-en.

[180] Id.

[181] Id. at 29

[182] Id.

[183] Id. at 30.

[184] Id. at 59.

[185] Id. at 59.

[186] Most digital platforms, of course, are already available in Latin America, but do not necessarily serve Latin American markets at full capacity. Think, for example, of a marketplace that allows consumers to buy goods from vendors in the United States, but does has no logistics operations or relations with local vendors in the user’s country.

 

Living Dangerously: The DMA and the Challenge of Balancing Competition and Cybersecurity

As the Digital Markets Act (DMA) enters its implementation phase, the European Commission is investigating whether the proposed solutions of dominant tech firms (gatekeepers) comply . . .

As the Digital Markets Act (DMA) enters its implementation phase, the European Commission is investigating whether the proposed solutions of dominant tech firms (gatekeepers) comply with the mandates of the DMA. However, this process is unearthing new concerns about potential side effects and unintended consequences. One such concern is that pro-competition measures could weaken platform integrity and security, exposing end users to data breaches, scams, and privacy risks. Further, the topic is highly sensitive due to its potential geopolitical implications.

However, this debate is inevitable, as DMA mandates aim to promote fair access by opening up gatekeepers’ ecosystems, particularly app stores. The requirements include supporting sideloading (letting users install apps outside the app store), interoperability requirements (requiring smooth integration with third-party services), and obligations to remove anti-steering restrictions (allowing businesses to directly communicate with end users, promote offers, and enter into contracts with them, without going through the gatekeeper).

Against this backdrop, to mitigate the growing risk of polarisation – which has at times affected even academic discussions – it may be useful to identify common ground and outline reasonable principles to guide policymakers in addressing these complex challenges.

Summary:

  • Risks to platform integrity and security are emerging as significant concerns in the implementation of the Digital Markets Act (DMA).
  • Since policymaking involves trade-offs, the European Commission should assess whether the solutions proposed by gatekeepers align with the goal of fostering competition while maintaining an adequate level of security, ultimately achieving a constrained optimum.
  • When evaluating gatekeepers’ technical implementations, it is crucial to account for the substantial differences in their business models.
  • Due to information asymmetry between regulators and targeted companies, achieving a proper balance between competition and security requires the active involvement of gatekeepers.
  • The experience of initiatives like Open Banking demonstrates that it is possible to promote competition without compromising security.

Political Debanking

This article examines the escalating practice of “political debanking”—the involuntary termination of banking services to individuals and organizations based on their political or religious . . .

Abstract

This article examines the escalating practice of “political debanking”—the involuntary termination of banking services to individuals and organizations based on their political or religious views—and its profound implications for free speech and democratic participation. Drawing on Milton Friedman’s insights about the interdependence of economic systems and free expression, the article argues that access to financial services is a prerequisite for exercising constitutional rights. It traces the rise of political debanking from the Obama Administration’s Operation Choke Point, which targeted disfavored industries under the guise of “reputation risk,” to its expansion under the Biden Administration, where individuals like Melania Trump and Michael Flynn faced account closures for their political stances. High-profile cases, including the cancellation of accounts tied to Donald Trump Jr.’s events and the National Committee for Religious Freedom, illustrate a growing weaponization of the financial system to suppress dissent.

The article distinguishes political debanking from other account closures (e.g., cryptocurrency or financial mismanagement) and critiques the regulatory framework that enables it, marked by opacity, discretion, and a lack of accountability. Despite Supreme Court rulings in NRA v. Vullo and Murthy v. Missouri, judicial remedies remain inadequate against subtle coercion in the modern regulatory state. With banks functioning as quasi-public entities due to extensive government privileges, the article proposes treating them as common carriers, mandating non-discriminatory access to services. It advocates for legislative and regulatory reforms, including reviving the Trump-era “Fair Access to Financial Services” rule, to safeguard free speech against future abuses, warning that without action, debanking will persist as a tool for silencing dissent.

Read at SSRN.

Incentive-Compatible Solutions to Illicit Online Activity: Part 1 – Illegal Online Gambling

Executive Summary Until recently, most forms of gambling were illegal in most U.S. states. Despite the recent wave of legalization efforts across many states, illegal offshore online gambling continues to...

Executive Summary

Until recently, most forms of gambling were illegal in most U.S. states. Despite the recent wave of legalization efforts across many states, illegal offshore online gambling continues to thrive, due in part to factors like the convenience, variety of games, and attractive incentives that offshore apps and websites offer. Surveys and industry estimates suggest that Americans wager hundreds of billions of dollars annually through these illegal offshore sites, which remain popular even in those states where onshore gambling is legal—illustrating the limits of current regulatory efforts.

The prevalence of illegal gambling is partly a consequence of restrictive historical policies. For example, high federal excise taxes, especially combined with state tax burdens and regulatory requirements, raise prices and reduce payouts for legal sites, pushing consumers toward cheaper illicit alternatives.

Illegal offshore gambling siphons revenue away from U.S. businesses and governments, reducing tax receipts and limiting the economic multipliers that arise from regulated gambling markets. Offshore operators are also not bound by U.S. consumer-protection laws. Players risk losing their deposits if sites shut down or withhold payouts, lack legal recourse to resolve disputes, and may face inadequate security and responsible-gambling measures relative to regulated domestic platforms.

Traditional “stick” approaches—including high-profile crackdowns—have not eradicated illegal offshore gambling. Enforcement is hampered by enforcers’ lack of jurisdiction, as well as the existence of technological workarounds and persistent demand for illicit options. Instead of focusing primarily on prohibitions and penalties, authorities should ensure that gamblers have ready access to legal sites that implement harm-reduction measures (e.g., deposit and time limits, self-exclusion tools, and transparency). Beyond government enforcement, private actors—such as the operators of legal betting operations—might be given appropriately circumscribed authority to request that internet-service providers (ISPs) block illicit sites, thereby leveraging private incentives to curtail illegal gambling.

More importantly, lawmakers should consider eliminating federal excise taxes on the handle. This would do more than anything to close the price gap between legal and illegal operators, making authorized U.S. platforms more competitive, providing incentives for consumers to choose regulated options, and mitigating the illegal market’s allure. Combining tax reform, targeted harm-reduction measures, expanded self-help mechanisms, and private enforcement tools could help to create an environment in which legal gambling operations may flourish, and consumers will be better protected.

Introduction

Until recently, most forms of gambling were illegal in much of the United States, but millions of Americans nonetheless found ways to place wages. Some did so by visiting legal casinos in Nevada or on Indian reservations. Others participated in parimutuel betting at racetracks, which was also legal. The majority, however, participated in various forms of illegal gambling. Until 30 years ago, that meant office pools or bookmakers (“bookies”), or both.

The emergence of online gambling websites in the mid-1990s suddenly expanded the opportunities for illegal betting. Lacking available legal onshore options, many U.S. residents chose to use offshore gambling sites that are not licensed domestically. The ramifications have been widespread and continue to this day: despite the legalization of gambling in many states, millions of Americans wager billions of dollars illicitly through offshore gambling websites.

This white paper describes the various policy options available to reduce illegal gambling, using the methodology of law & economics to assess those options. It begins with an examination of the underlying causes of illegal online gambling. Section 2 discusses the harms that arise from illegal offshore gambling. Section 3 considers the current approaches policymakers have taken to curb offshore gambling, analyzing their successes and limitations. Section 4 considers alternative solutions, evaluating their potential. Section 5 considers the federal taxation of gambling, and potential reforms in that area. Finally, Section 6 offers conclusions and recommendations, emphasizing in particular the potential benefits of reducing federal taxation and using diplomatic channels to enhance the effectiveness of site blocking.

I. Illegal Online Gambling in the United States

In 2022, the American Gaming Association (AGA) commissioned a survey of roughly 5,200 Americans to understand their gambling habits.[1] The AGA survey results found that Americans bet around $400 billion annually on illegal online gambling sites. Of that, the AGA attributes roughly $60 billion to illegal sportsbooks and $340 billion to illegal online casinos. A recent survey by sportsbook aggregator Covers of 5,100 sports bettors in states where betting is currently legal found that about a third admitted to using at least one offshore sports-betting website.[2] Meanwhile, gambling intelligence company Yield Sec has estimated that approximately 75% of the gross gaming revenue earned in the United States in the first half of 2024 went to illegal offshore operators.[3]

As these data show, illegal online gambling continues to thrive, despite at least some forms of gambling now being legal in 38 states and the District of Columbia. Factors affecting this demand include:

  • Convenience and Accessibility: The ability to gamble from the comfort of one’s home or via mobile devices in states where online gambling remains illegal.
  • Variety of Offerings: Offshore sites often provide a wider array of games and betting options than regulated domestic platforms, including sports betting, casino games, poker, and eSports betting.
  • Attractive Incentives: Bonuses, promotions, and loyalty programs offered by offshore sites are often more generous than those provided by U.S.-licensed operators, due to a combination of tax and regulatory burdens on legal sites that are not imposed on illegal sites.

More generally, illegal gambling is the result of historic and contemporary restrictive legal frameworks—especially the federal taxation of betting handles—that fail to align with consumer demand. This section will first consider the development of U.S. legal frameworks around gambling, providing historical context, and then offer a brief overview of the federal taxation of gambling. It concludes with a brief discussion of the current situation.

A. A Brief History of Gambling in the United States

The current pattern of legal and illegal gambling in the United States is largely a result of the shifting legal landscape of gambling of the past two centuries. Legal gambling is now a multifaceted industry—comprising state lotteries, tribal casinos, commercial casinos, “racinos,” and online and brick-and-mortar betting platforms. These operate under a complex patchwork of state and federal law.

Illegal gambling, meanwhile, emerged to fill the gaps created by prior laws. It continues, in part, due to inertia, but primarily due to a combination of legal restrictions and taxes, especially those imposed at the federal level. This subsection offers a brief overview of the historic and current laws, as well as other factors that have affected the development of legal and illegal gambling in the United States.

1.  Origins of gambling in the United States

Gambling arrived on the eastern shores of North America with the earliest European settlers. In England, from which many colonists originated, wagering on cards, dice, and other games was a familiar pastime.

Yet the American colonies were not monolithic in their attitudes. In Puritan New England, authorities discouraged gambling on moral grounds. They saw it as a frivolous activity that risked corrupting the soul and fostering sinful behavior, and the Massachusetts Bay Colony enacted the first colonial-era law against gambling in 1638.[4]

Despite this, lotteries early on became an essential method of raising revenue for public works, churches, schools, and even the fledgling institutions of higher education such as Harvard and Yale.[5] While frowned upon by some, these early lotteries were not clandestine operations; they were widely advertised, openly discussed, and legally sanctioned. Indeed, the American Revolutionary War was financed in part by a lottery organized by the Continental Congress, which raised $5 million.[6]

2. Criminalization and the rise of illegal gambling

By the early 1800s, the pendulum began to swing further from legally sanctioned gambling. While lotteries had financed much of the nation’s early infrastructure—including roads, bridges, and educational institutions—scandals involving misappropriated funds and rigged drawings eroded public trust.[7] These scandals were used to justify bans on private lotteries, while some state lotteries continued to operate.[8]

Pressure from prohibitionists led the federal government to enact a series of laws restricting the transportation of lottery tickets by mail, thereby ostensibly restricting access to lottery tickets in states where lotteries were banned.[9] This culminated in the federal Anti-Lottery Act of 1890, which broadened the definition of prohibited material to newspapers that contained lottery advertisements.[10] In response, the Louisiana Lottery Co. moved its operations to Honduras—an early example of using a foreign jurisdiction to avoid U.S. anti-gambling legislation—and Congress responded in kind in 1895 with a provision barring importation of foreign lottery materials—thereby terminating the business.[11]

The private betting that continued—on horse races, cockfights, or card games—often moved underground, as legal constraints on these other forms of betting tightened.[12] This would set a pattern: as legal gambling avenues closed, illicit ones flourished.

Rapid urbanization and industrialization in the late 1800s created new communities of wage earners looking for leisure and excitement, including gambling. This demand was met largely by illegal gambling operations, especially in big cities.[13] Gambling transitioned from riverboats and trains to saloon-based card rooms.[14] Numbers rackets run by organized-crime syndicates, and clandestine betting parlors proliferated.[15] Horse racing, once openly celebrated, faced moral crusades and state crackdowns, leaving only a handful of states with legal racetracks. Yet even these state-authorized tracks often coexisted uneasily with illegal bookmakers, who offered odds on everything from races to prize fights. Organized crime found fertile ground in the public’s enduring appetite for wagering, stepping in to provide illegal gambling services wherever legal outlets were lacking.[16]

In 1871, Jerome Park Racetrack, in Westchester, New York, introduced parimutuel betting machines for the first time.[17] In Paris Mutuels or “parimutuel” betting, there is no bookmaker; rather, funds are pooled, and odds vary in accordance with the amounts wagered on each outcome. The system spread rapidly across this United States. Despite the absence of a bookmaker and thus reduced likelihood of race fixing, however, states soon introduced prohibitions.[18] In a twist, the New York State Court of Appeals ruled that oral betting in the absence of a bookmaker or clerk did not violate the 1908 Hart-Agnew anti-betting law—perhaps a sop to the businesses that had developed around betting.[19]

As the country endured economic turmoil during the Great Depression, policy began to shift. Legal gambling venues became, once again, a fiscal lifeline. Nevada’s legalization of casino gambling in 1931 laid the groundwork for Las Vegas to become the world’s preeminent gambling destination by the post-war period.[20] Casinos, once seen as a vice-ridden novelty, became accepted as tourist attractions and revenue engines for Nevada. Organized crime elements initially facilitated the growth of Las Vegas casinos, but over time—and especially after the Nevada Gaming Control Act of 1959, which shifted regulation from the state Tax Commission to the Nevada Gaming Commission—these establishments were cleaned up and corporatized, appealing to middle-class vacationers.[21]

3. State and federal developments

The mid-1960s marked a shift in state gambling policy driven by revenue needs. New Hampshire’s 1964 introduction of the first modern state lottery catalyzed widespread adoption, with dozens of states following suit by the late 1970s.[22] Casino gambling expanded beyond Nevada when New Jersey legalized casinos in Atlantic City in 1976, establishing a regulatory framework through the Casino Control Act that became a model for other jurisdictions.[23]

The rise of tribal gaming in the 1970s and 1980s culminated in the landmark 1987 Supreme Court decision in California v. Cabazon Band of Mission Indians, which affirmed tribal rights to conduct gaming free from most state interference, so long as the state allowed some form of gambling.[24] Congress responded with the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) in 1988, creating a federal framework that classified gaming into tiers and required tribes to negotiate compacts with states for certain types of games.[25] IGRA’s passage, while providing a clear regulatory structure through the National Indian Gaming Commission, fostered complex state-tribal relationships through revenue-sharing agreements.[26] Tribal gaming evolved into a significant economic force, generating employment, infrastructure, and social services for tribal communities.[27]

Federal intervention in the post-war period initially focused on combating organized crime’s influence through the Federal Wire Act of 1961, which prohibited interstate telecommunications for sports betting,[28] and the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) of 1970, which strengthened prosecution tools against illegal gambling syndicates.[29] These measures, however, produced unintended consequences. They made legal sports betting harder to establish in states that might have considered regulated frameworks. With fewer legitimate outlets and stringent federal restrictions on interstate wagering, many Americans turned to clandestine operators.[30] Moreover, organized crime adapted by diversifying its methods and exploiting new communications technologies, creating an ongoing enforcement challenge.[31]

4. PASPA (1992–2018)

In 1992, Congress passed the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA),[32] which effectively prohibited states from authorizing sports betting, except for those jurisdictions like Nevada that had pre-existing frameworks. PASPA reflected a federal desire to maintain the integrity of sports, but it also stymied the growth of legal sports wagering for more than two decades. Ironically, this helped to fuel a large illegal market serviced by offshore bookmakers and local illicit operations, illustrating again that restrictive policies often push demand underground, rather than eliminating it.[33]

The Supreme Court’s 2018 decision in Murphy v. NCAA struck down PASPA.[34] The decision cleared the path for states to legalize and regulate sports betting as they saw fit. Almost immediately, states from Indiana to Colorado enacted legislation authorizing sportsbooks at casinos, racetracks, and online platforms.[35] This rapid liberalization transformed the sports-betting market into a mainstream industry, replete with partnerships between sportsbook operators and major professional sports leagues.[36] To regulate these markets, states have employed a range of mechanisms, which may include formal licensing requirements, integrity monitoring, consumer-protection standards, and tax structures—resulting in a dynamic, competitive environment.

5. Online gambling, the UIGEA, and the 2011 DOJ opinion

The rise of the internet presented new challenges for federal and state regulators. Online casinos and poker rooms first sprang up in the late 1990s, with many operating from offshore jurisdictions. Initially, the  Interstate Wire Act of 1961 and other pre-internet statutes proved ill-equipped to govern this new frontier.[37] In 2006, Congress passed the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA), which attempted to curtail illegal online wagering by barring financial institutions from processing payments related to unlicensed online gambling sites. While UIGEA did not make online gambling a federal crime per se, it complicated offshore platforms’ operations and led some to withdraw from the U.S. market.[38] Nonetheless, consumer demand persisted, pushing states to experiment with intrastate legalization.

A 2011 U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) memorandum, often referred to simply as the “2011 DOJ opinion” or the “Seitz opinion,” significantly reshaped the legal landscape for online gambling.[39] The DOJ memo reconsidered the scope of the Wire Act, which the DOJ had previously interpreted as prohibiting all forms of interstate online gambling. The 2011 opinion concluded that the Wire Act’s prohibitions were limited specifically to sports betting, thereby clarifying that non-sports betting activities—such as online lottery sales or other forms of online gambling, including poker—were not covered by the act when conducted solely within a state’s borders.

This reinterpretation did not legalize online poker or other forms of gambling, but it removed a major federal obstacle. States were thus free to explore intrastate online gaming platforms without fear of violating the Wire Act. This led to the subsequent licensing and regulation of online poker and other online gambling formats in states like Nevada, New Jersey, and Delaware.

6. Contemporary trends and legislative refinements

Today, the federal role in gambling tends to be limited to enforcement actions against illegal operators and oversight in areas like tribal gaming, in addition to federal taxation.[40] States, conversely, have become the principal laboratories of gambling policy. This division of authority reflects both constitutional design and practical necessity, as states are better positioned to calibrate gambling policy to their distinct demographic compositions, existing gaming infrastructure, professional sports presence, and localized political preferences.

Many states continue to revise their statutes, expanding their offerings beyond traditional casinos to include mobile sports betting and online casino games. The expansion of legal gambling products has also raised concerns about problem gambling and consumer protection, leading to legislative efforts aimed at supporting addiction-treatment programs, improving self-exclusion lists, and requiring online and offline operators to adopt responsible gambling programs.

B. Federal Taxation of Gambling

The second prong of federal involvement in gambling has been the imposition of federal taxes. Over time, these taxes—initially designed to combat organized crime and ensure revenue collection—have interacted with changing market conditions, including the rise of online wagering. As with other federal legislation, taxation has had perverse effects on the incentives to participate in illegal offshore gambling.

1. Wagering excise taxes

As already noted, alongside the growth of gambling markets in the mid-20th century, the federal government sought to stifle illegal betting and the involvement of organized crime. Early on, a key tool was the imposition of special federal taxes on wagers. In 1951, Congress passed legislation that included a federal excise tax on wagering, as well as occupational taxes on individuals engaged in the business of accepting bets.[41] These measures, codified in the Internal Revenue Code (IRC), imposed substantial tax burdens on bookmakers—especially those operating illegally. Initially, the wagering excise tax was set at 10% on the amount wagered, a rate set deliberately high so as to discourage illegal operations.[42]

This heavy taxation was intended to serve a dual purpose:

  • Revenue Generation: The government collected funds from a market that continued to thrive underground, turning a previously untapped source of revenue into a fiscal asset.
  • Crime Deterrence: By making it risky and expensive to conduct illicit gambling operations, federal authorities hoped to drive illegal bookmakers out of business or push them to become legitimate taxpaying entities.

These taxes, however, had a mixed impact. The high excise rate and aggressive enforcement did not eradicate illegal gambling. Instead, they contributed to a cat-and-mouse dynamic: legal bookmakers passed the tax burden onto bettors through less-favorable odds, but many bookmakers remained underground, evading detection.[43] Together with the other federal legislation discussed above, this has served to fuel a persistent illegal market.

2. Adjustments to tax rates and enforcement

The federal government has over the years realized that excessively high taxes could inadvertently strengthen the underground economy. Extremely high taxation left no realistic pathway for illegal bookmakers to transition to legally compliant businesses, as it would squeeze their margins excessively. As a result, Congress gradually reduced the wagering excise tax from its original 10% to its current rate of 0.25% for legal wagers, making compliance more palatable for legitimate businesses.[44]

For illegal wagers, however, the tax rate was kept at a punitive 2%—effectively a penalty tax designed to discourage unlicensed activities. This two-tiered system persists, reflecting the government’s attempt to encourage legitimacy while punishing illegality. Nonetheless, the degree to which these tax measures have proven effective has always been tied to how vigorously they have been enforced. In periods when IRS crackdowns were sporadic or resources were limited, the illegal market still found room to maneuver.

3. The rise of online gambling and the offshore question

By the late 1990s and early 2000s, many internet-enabled remote-wagering platforms were located offshore, beyond the immediate reach of U.S. authorities. Illegal online operators leveraged technology and legal grey areas to offer services to U.S. bettors without incurring U.S. taxes or adhering to U.S. regulations. Because federal tax laws were originally designed for land-based bookmakers and did not anticipate the borderless nature of the internet, they proved less than effective against these offshore entities. Such entities could not easily be monitored, and collecting taxes from them proved nearly impossible.[45]

As a result, while the federal wagering excise tax remained on the books, it exerted minimal influence over the burgeoning illegal online gambling market. Operators established themselves in jurisdictions with lenient regulatory and tax regimes, operating without the burden of either U.S. excise taxes or regulatory scrutiny.[46] This tax avoidance made offshore illegal sites more competitive, enabling them to offer better odds or bigger bonuses to attract U.S.-based players.

4. Taxation of winnings and its limited impact on illicit markets

At the federal level, gamblers’ winnings—whether from legal or illegal sources—are considered taxable income.[47] Players are supposed to report such winnings on their federal income tax returns, and certain winnings from legally regulated venues are subject to automatic withholding. Enforcement of this reporting requirement for illegal online gambling is, however, quite limited. Anonymous offshore sites do not issue W-2G forms or other documentation that would prompt accurate reporting. Consequently, players on illegal platforms often pay no tax on their winnings, inadvertently giving illicit sites another competitive edge over lawful, tax-reporting competitors.

C. Conclusion

Since the end of World War II, U.S. federal gambling regulation has shifted from a narrow regime focused primarily on Nevada’s casinos to one putatively responsible for oversight of a legally and technologically complex industry. Key statutes at the federal level—from 1961’s Federal Wire Act to PASPA in 1992 and UIGEA in 2006—have alternately constrained and reshaped the market.

At the state level, legislation authorizing lotteries, casinos, and online betting has been introduced to respond to changing economic and social realities. The introduction of IGRA in 1988 and the relaxation of federal constraints on sports betting after 2018 reflect an evolving consensus that carefully regulated gambling can provide economic benefits and consumer choice.

The proliferation of regulated online gambling at the state level in the 2010s and beyond—enabled by the 2011 DOJ opinion and further boosted by the Supreme Court’s Murphy v. NCAA decision—have fostered the conditions for legitimate online operations to emerge. As states legalized online casinos, poker rooms, and sports betting, licensed operators became subject to state taxation and regulatory oversight, and by extension, to proper federal tax reporting for their U.S.-based activities.

While federal excise taxes continue to apply to illegal bookmakers, in principle, the taxation of regulated online gambling operators is far easier to enforce. Legal sites must comply with both state and federal regulations, issue tax forms to winners, and maintain clear records. The presence of legitimate taxpaying online operators has, however, clearly not displaced the illegal segment entirely. Many consumers still prefer offshore platforms for various reasons, including their anonymity, more favorable odds, avoidance of taxes on winnings, and access to games not permitted in their home states. This market displacement is further compounded by the difficulty consumers experience in distinguishing legal and illegal operators, particularly when the latter use legitimate payment processors and financial services that convey an impression of regulatory compliance.

Federal taxes on gaming revenue—conceived in an era of telephone bookmakers and physical racing tracks, and intended to keep both legal and illegal gambling in check—now arguably serve as the strongest incentives for Americans to continue using illegal offshore gambling sites. Ironically, by diverting tens of billions of dollars of betting activity offshore, the federal wagering tax not only harms legitimate U.S. business, but also significantly reduces revenue both for the federal government, in the form of corporate and personal-income taxes, and state governments, in the form of various taxes and license fees.

II. Harmful Consequences of Illegal Offshore Gambling

While offshore gambling platforms often entice consumers with attractive odds and lavish promotions, they expose users to significant risks that legal, regulated platforms are designed to mitigate. The absence of consumer protections on offshore platforms creates vulnerabilities that can result in severe financial consequences. In addition, when gamblers use offshore sites, businesses and governments in the U.S. lose revenue. This section briefly discusses these issues.

A. Harm to Consumers

One of the most alarming risks arising from U.S. consumers participating in offshore gambling is the lack of legal recourse in the event of disputes. Gambling websites operating from such jurisdictions as Curaçao, Malta, and the Isle of Man are not subject to U.S. laws and regulations. Moreover, it is illegal for U.S. bettors to use such sites from within the United States. Thus, when a U.S.-based bettor experiences issues like incorrect payouts, sudden account closures, or withheld funds, they are likely to find themselves with limited, if any, legal pathways to recover their money. In some cases, offshore operators have closed user accounts arbitrarily and blocked access to funds, leaving bettors with little ability to appeal or reclaim their balances.[48] Consumers may also find that winnings are recalculated or denied outright, with no transparency in the process or accountability from the platform.[49]

The absence of meaningful age-verification requirements on offshore platforms enables access by individuals below legal gambling age, creating a risk of early-onset problem-gambling behaviors that can persist in adulthood. This vulnerability is particularly concerning in light of research demonstrating strong correlations between early gambling exposure and subsequent addiction patterns.[50]

Moreover, these platforms typically lack responsible-gaming safeguards that are standard on regulated sites. Without automated detection of problematic betting patterns, mandatory cooling-off periods, or self-exclusion tools, users who exhibit signs of problem gambling behavior have no access to interventions that could prevent negative outcomes. This absence of protective measures stands in stark contrast to regulated platforms, where sophisticated algorithms and mandatory responsible-gaming programs help to identify and assist at-risk players.

TABLE 1: US Versus Offshore Gambling Websites

Many fly-by-night offshore gambling platforms operate with little regard for business continuity or user security. There have been documented cases of platforms abruptly shutting down, taking all user deposits and winnings with them.[51] While U.S. states and some offshore jurisdictions require operators to segregate operational funds from user deposits, operators in other jurisdictions (such as Curaçao) face no such obligations.[52] As such, users’ funds may be lost if the platform goes bankrupt or engages in fraudulent practices. This is also a risk where operators can simply shut down and reopen under a different name, thereby evading restitution to affected users.

In addition to financial risks, users of offshore platforms may also be vulnerable to data breaches and identity theft. These platforms are not necessarily subject to rigorous cybersecurity standards, leaving sensitive user information—such as payment details and personal identification—exposed to hackers. In contrast, operators based in the United States are required to adhere to strict data-security protocols.[53]

Finally, offshore platforms may engage in predatory practices, such as offering excessively high bonuses with hidden, nearly impossible-to-meet wagering requirements. These practices exploit consumers’ trust and encourage reckless gambling behavior, further exacerbating financial risks.

B. Loss of Revenue to Business and Government

U.S. gaming companies must comply with stringent regulations and taxes, while offshore operators face fewer constraints, allowing them to offer more attractive terms to consumers. The consequent diversion of funds to offshore gambling sites has significant economic implications for U.S. companies, which lose potential customers to offshore sites, limiting their growth and profitability. In addition, uncertainty in the regulatory environment deters investment in the online gambling sector, stifling innovation and job creation.

The AGA estimates that the illegal online gambling market siphons about $4 billion annually from the legal U.S. gaming industry and about $13 billion in tax revenue that would otherwise be paid to the states.[54] This loss affects not only casino operators and sports-betting sites, but also such ancillary industries as software development, payment processing, and marketing.

Illegal offshore gambling also deprives state governments of substantial tax revenues in three ways. First, taxes on gambling revenues, licensing fees, and excise taxes are not collected from offshore operators. Second, reduced business activity leads to lower income-tax collections from employees and corporate taxes from businesses. Third, legal gambling establishments contribute to the economy through construction, hospitality, tourism, and other sectors. By siphoning business, offshore gambling sites reduce this business multiplier.

III. Addressing Illegal Online Gambling Through Enforcement

This section considers the main approaches currently employed by U.S. authorities to limit illegal online gambling.

A. Enforcement of Federal Legislation

As noted, several pieces of federal legislation have been developed specifically to address illegal gambling, but enforcement challenges have hindered their effectiveness.

1. The ‘Black Friday’ crackdown

The most notable enforcement action taken against offshore gambling websites was the “Black Friday” crackdown.[55] On April 15, 2011, the U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) unsealed indictments against the founders of several major online-poker sites, including Isle-of-Man-based PokerStars, Ireland-based Full Tilt Poker, and Costa-Rica-based Absolute Poker. The charges included bank fraud, money laundering, and violations of the UIGEA[56] and the Illegal Gambling Business Act.[57] The DOJ seized domain names and froze bank accounts associated with these sites, effectively shutting down their U.S. operations.[58]

PokerStars eventually reached a settlement with the DOJ, paying substantial fines but without admitting wrongdoing regarding the alleged UIGEA violations.[59] As part of the deal, PokerStars acquired Full Tilt Poker and repaid its customers, whose accounts had been frozen.[60] Absolute Poker and Ultimate Bet effectively ceased operations for U.S. customers and struggled to return player balances.[61]

2. Bodog.com

In 2012, the DOJ indicted the founder of Bodog Entertainment Group (which had employees in Canada and Costa Rica) on charges of illegal gambling and money laundering.[62] The Bodog.com domain was seized, and significant assets were frozen.[63] But this enforcement action illustrated a persistent challenge. Despite the domain seizure, Bodog’s operations effectively continued under the Bovada brand name, maintaining similar infrastructure and customer base but operating through different URLs and corporate entities.[64] The case exemplifies how illegal operators can quickly adapt to enforcement actions by migrating their operations to new domains and corporate structures while retaining their fundamental business model. The ability to rapidly reconstitute operations under new identities significantly undermines the effectiveness of individual enforcement actions.

B. International Cooperation

These traditional enforcement approaches face significant limitations. Given the transnational nature of online gambling, international cooperation is crucial for effective enforcement. The United States has engaged in various initiatives toward that end, including:

  • Mutual Legal Assistance Treaties (MLATs): The United States has MLATs with numerous countries, facilitating the exchange of information and assistance in legal proceedings related to criminal matters, including illegal gambling activities.
  • Financial Action Task Force (FATF): As a member of the FATF, the United States collaborates with other nations to combat money laundering and terrorist financing, which are often associated with illegal gambling operations.

Ironically, another multilateral treaty to which the United States is a party, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has magnified some of the challenges surrounding U.S. online gambling restrictions. Notably, Antigua and Barbuda filed a complaint alleging U.S. law discriminated against foreign online gambling operators. The WTO ruled in Antigua’s favor, but the United States has yet to fully comply with the ruling, leading to ongoing tensions.[65]

Despite the MLATs, the FATF, and other U.S. efforts to engage in international cooperation, jurisdictional constraints remain a primary challenge, as illegal operators deliberately locate in jurisdictions with weak enforcement regimes.[66] Persuading jurisdictions such as Malta, Curaçao, and the Isle of Man—renowned for their permissive licensing regimes and established roles as global hubs for online gambling—to enforce U.S. gambling restrictions is a challenging proposition. Each of these jurisdictions has built its international reputation, regulatory framework, and economic strategy to attract and sustain online betting operators. Thus, their willingness to curtail operations serving U.S. customers ultimately depends on a mix of legal, economic, diplomatic, and practical considerations.

Even when jurisdiction can be established, sophisticated actors continually develop new methods to evade blocking and monitoring efforts, creating a perpetual technological arms race between regulators and illegal operators.[67] The resource-intensive nature of investigating and prosecuting illegal operators further complicates enforcement efforts.[68]

C. Effectiveness

Enforcement actions like the “Black Friday” crackdown and the takedown of Bodog.com temporarily disrupted the operations of significant offshore gambling sites, reducing their accessibility to U.S. consumers. While these enforcement actions were clearly disruptive and dissuaded some Americans from using offshore poker websites, at least temporarily, they came at significant cost to Americans who were using the affected websites. Those who used Absolute Poker and Ultimate Bet, for example, lost significant sums of money.

Market dynamics pose additional challenges to enforcement-focused approaches. Perhaps most significantly, compliance costs for legitimate operators can create pricing and convenience advantages for illegal alternatives, inadvertently strengthening their competitive positions.[69]

These enforcement challenges have led to several regulatory inefficiencies. The heavy reliance on enforcement diverts public resources from other potential regulatory approaches, often with diminishing returns.[70] Multiple enforcement agencies and jurisdictions frequently struggle to coordinate effectively, while metrics of success tend to focus excessively on bringing enforcement actions, rather than actual market outcomes.

The emphasis on prohibitory measures can also produce several counterproductive effects. Strict regulations may inadvertently segment markets, making illegal alternatives more attractive to certain consumer segments.[71] Compliance requirements can impede legitimate operators from developing new products or services, while driving activity underground may expose consumers to greater risks from unregulated illegal operators. Over time, the limited success of prohibition efforts may gradually erode public and institutional support for enforcement itself.

In the longer term, however, these efforts have had limited effect. In part, this is due to the “Whack-a-Mole” phenomenon; when one site is shut down, others quickly fill the void. New operators emerge, and existing ones adapt by changing their domain names, server locations, or corporate structures. In addition, offshore operators employ sophisticated technologies to evade detection, such as mirror sites, encrypted communications, and anonymous payment methods.

Moreover, enforcement has done little to diminish U.S. consumers’ appetite to participate in illegal offshore online gambling. Technological advancements have significantly lowered the barriers to access offshore gambling sites. Tools such as virtual private networks (VPNs) and proxy domain-name servers allow users to mask their internet-protocol (IP) addresses, making it appear as though they are accessing the internet from a different country. This circumvention of geo-restrictions enables U.S. residents to register and participate on offshore platforms that are officially barred from serving the U.S. market.[72]

In addition, cryptocurrencies have introduced new avenues for pseudonymous transactions, which make it harder to trace funds. These digital currencies are decentralized and operate outside the traditional banking system, impeding authorities’ ability to monitor or block financial transactions related to online gambling.

Finally, differing legal systems and priorities among relevant jurisdictions can hinder effective international enforcement. In spite of MLATs and FATF commitments, some jurisdictions lack the resources and/or willingness to cooperate fully with U.S. authorities.

These limitations suggest the need to complement traditional enforcement with strategies that leverage market forces and address consumer incentives. Such approaches would create conditions where legitimate operators can effectively compete with illegal alternatives, while providing businesses with the tools and frameworks to protect their interests. The optimal regulatory framework would balance enforcement efforts with other approaches based on their relative effectiveness.

IV. Incentive-Compatible Solutions to the Problem of Illegal Offshore Online Gambling

Federal approaches to the regulation of illegal gambling have primarily relied on prohibitory legislation and punitive criminal-enforcement mechanisms—i.e., regulatory and tax “sticks” designed to deter and punish illegal behavior.[73] While stick-based enforcement efforts may have achieved some success in curtailing illegal online gambling, the predominance of these mechanisms reflects an enforcement-first mindset that overlooks opportunities for more efficient and effective solutions. Complementary regulatory approaches are needed that use market-based solutions and adopt incentive-compatible “carrots” to guide consumer behavior toward legitimate, regulated alternatives.[74]

Incentive-compatible regulation aims to align market participants’ interests with policymakers’ goals, thereby creating a framework under which compliance becomes the rational choice, rather than a burden. By leveraging a calibrated combination of rewards (“carrots”) and enforcement measures (“sticks”), these strategies seek to reduce market distortions, encourage lawful behavior, and promote innovation.

This section explores how such frameworks operate across different contexts, emphasizing the importance of balancing incentives to achieve sustainable regulatory outcomes. It begins with some context, describing the general approach of “market-based” regulation. It then delves more specifically into three approaches that offer complementary means of achieving socially desired outcomes: harm reduction, self-help, and private rights of action.

A. Market-Based Regulation

Market-based regulatory strategies can complement enforcement efforts in several crucial ways. First, they acknowledge the reality that consumer choice is heavily influenced by convenience, price, and accessibility, especially in the online world.[75] When regulatory frameworks inadvertently disadvantage legitimate businesses on these dimensions, they may unintentionally drive consumers toward illegal alternatives, regardless of enforcement efforts.[76]

A market-oriented regulatory approach also recognizes the importance of private ordering and self-help mechanisms. Rather than relying solely on government enforcement, this framework empowers legitimate businesses to protect their interests through market mechanisms and technological tools.[77] The success of content-delivery networks in preventing certain forms of piracy, for instance, illustrates how private-sector innovation can complement traditional enforcement approaches.[78]

Critically, this shift toward market-based strategies does not imply abandoning enforcement efforts. Instead, it suggests calibrating regulation to create conditions under which enforcement and market mechanisms work in tandem. This might involve reducing regulatory barriers that disadvantage legitimate operators, while simultaneously providing them with better tools to combat illegal competition. The goal is to create regulatory frameworks that align private incentives with public-policy objectives.

The effectiveness of such “carrot” approaches depends on careful attention to market dynamics and consumer behavior. Regulatory interventions must be designed with a sophisticated understanding of how they will affect competitive conditions in digital markets. This requires moving beyond simple prohibitions to consider how regulatory frameworks influence the relative attractiveness of legal and illegal options. Three “carrot” approaches that might be applied in the context of online gambling are harm reduction, self-help, and new private rights of action.

B. Harm-Reducing Regulatory Carrots

The recent expansion of legal, regulated online gambling in many states is a good example of such a regulatory “carrot.” Pure prohibition does not address the underlying consumer demand that drives illegal markets.[79] By permitting online gambling but subjecting the operators of legally sanctioned websites to various rules, states have been able to ensure legitimate businesses can compete against illegal operators.[80]

Currently, 38 states and the District of Columbia offer regulated sports-betting operations.[81] Of these, 30 states permit online/mobile betting, while seven also permit online/mobile casino gambling.[82] The legal market has shown substantial growth, with the U.S. commercial gaming industry recording $66.6 billion in 2023 revenue and contributing $14.67 billion in direct gaming-tax revenue to state and local governments.[83]

1. Harm reduction as regulatory strategy

Harm reduction is a public-health strategy and philosophical approach aimed at limiting the negative consequences associated with certain behaviors, conditions, or substances, without necessarily requiring their complete cessation. Rather than focusing solely on elimination or abstinence, harm reduction acknowledges that some individuals may continue to engage in potentially risky activities. It therefore seeks to reduce risks and adverse effects—such as disease transmission, injury, or social harm—through practical, evidence-based interventions and policies.[84]

Common examples of harm reduction include cannabis legalization in order to mitigate the harmful effects of underground drug markets; offering designated-driver programs to prevent impaired driving; or implementing safer-gambling tools to limit financial and psychological harm. By meeting people “where they are” and prioritizing their immediate well-being, harm-reduction strategies empower individuals to make informed choices that improve their health and safety, even if their behavior does not fully align with traditional abstinence-based goals.

2. Applying harm reduction to gambling

Applied to gambling, harm-reduction strategies aim to mitigate financial, psychological, and social risks without demanding outright cessation of play. These approaches recognize that some individuals will continue to gamble, and therefore focus on minimizing potential harms. Examples include:

  • Deposit and Loss Limits: Allow players to predetermine the amount of money they can deposit or lose within a given period. Once they hit the limit, they cannot continue until the set timeframe is reset.
  • Time Limits: Allow players to restrict the length of each gambling session, helping players to maintain greater control and prevent extended, impulsive play.
  • Voluntary Exclusion Lists: Players can voluntarily ban themselves from online or land-based gambling venues for a specified period, or indefinitely.
  • Cool-Off Periods: Temporary breaks from gambling platforms that grant players the time and distance to reassess their behavior.
  • Real-Time Feedback and Prompts: Pop-up messages or periodic notifications that remind players how long they have been playing and how much money they have spent, and providing responsible-gambling information.
  • Informed-Choice Tools: Clear disclosure of odds, payout rates, and risk levels helps players to understand the nature of the games and make more informed decisions.
  • Analytics-Based Interventions: Operators can use data to identify problematic patterns—such as escalating bets—and prompt players with educational messages, or suggestions to take breaks.
  • Player Dashboards: Personal gambling histories, spending summaries, and time-tracking features enable players to monitor and reflect on their habits.
  • Content Restrictions: Limiting promotional materials that glorify large wins or target vulnerable populations.
  • Incorporating Responsible-Gambling Messages: Ensuring all marketing communications encourage safe play and clearly state the risks involved.
  • Onsite and Online Help Links: Quick and prominent links to helplines, self-help tools, and counseling services.
  • Collaboration with Treatment Providers: Operators cooperating with health professionals and support groups to offer referrals and interventions for those exhibiting signs of problem gambling.

When such harm-reduction measures are implemented, the gambling environment becomes safer, more transparent, and better equipped to help players maintain control, detect risk behaviors early, and seek help when needed.

3. The economics of harm reduction

From an economic perspective, such harm-reduction strategies offer efficiency advantages over prohibition. Not only do they reduce government expenditure on enforcement (which is now channeled toward ensuring that operators comply with regulations, rather than inefficiently pursuing prosecution of every last illegal bookie) but they can also reduce the social costs associated with problem gambling, while ensuring that consumers are, at minimum, able to avail themselves of common-law protections.

But successful implementation of harm-reduction strategies requires careful attention to market incentives and substitution effects between legal and illegal alternatives. This includes ensuring that regulatory frameworks and tax structures are calibrated to make compliance more attractive than evasion.[85] When regulatory frameworks inadvertently advantage illegal alternatives, they may increase, rather than reduce, aggregate harm.

4. Age-verification and geo-blocking requirements in state gambling legislation

Ancillary to explicit harm-reduction rules, states that have legalized online gambling demand age and location verification. These requirements aim to ensure that only those who are legally permitted to gamble (i.e., adults of at least 21 years of age in most states) and physically located within the state’s borders can place a bet.

Age verification typically requires players to provide such personal details as their name, address, and the last four digits of their Social Security number. Operators use this information to validate the individual’s age against government databases or trusted third-party identity-verification services. In some cases, players may also be asked to submit scans of a driver’s license, passport, or other government-issued identification if the automated checks are inconclusive. Additionally, players must meet multi-factor authentication measures on a regular basis in order to access their accounts.

In many states, players must use approved geolocation plug-ins or mobile apps that run location checks.[86] If the user’s location cannot be verified or is detected outside state lines, access to real-money wagering is denied. These typically utilize multiple data points—such as a device’s GPS data, IP-address location, and nearby Wi-Fi networks—to ensure a high degree of accuracy.

The technological sophistication of age- and location-verification tools help to maintain the integrity of regulated markets. While these measures can sometimes add friction to the user experience, they are generally well-accepted as necessary consumer protections and a way for states to uphold their legal responsibilities. As a result, these rules have become a standard component of the licensing and regulatory requirements for online gambling operators in those U.S. states that have chosen to legalize and regulate the industry.

C. Self-Help

From a law & economics perspective, the concept of self-help refers to actions taken by individuals to enforce their own rights, reclaim property, or resolve disputes without directly involving the state’s formal legal apparatus (courts, police, or regulatory agencies). In essence, self-help is a form of private enforcement or private ordering that circumvents the often lengthy and expensive processes associated with litigation, statutory enforcement, or arbitration.

When individuals believe that the formal legal system is too costly, slow, or uncertain, they may find it more efficient to take matters into their own hands. The immediate costs of self-help—as measured in time, effort, and potential risk—may be lower than the attorney fees, court costs, and prolonged uncertainty associated with the formal legal system. This calculation reflects the basic law & economics principle that rational actors seek to minimize their enforcement and transaction costs. Formal legal remedies often entail substantial transaction costs: filing fees, legal representation, delays due to procedural rules, and the cost of verifying and proving claims in court. If self-help can achieve a similar outcome more quickly and affordably, it may appear economically efficient.

For example, when a limb of a tree growing in Alan’s garden overhangs Beth’s garden, it is technically trespassing, and Beth could take legal action to require Alan to remove it. Alternatively, Beth could avoid the costs of pursuing the formal legal route and ask Alan to cut the limb off. But if Alan refuses to remove the limb or does not respond, or if the limb poses an imminent threat, Beth might simply remove the limb herself. [87]

In theory, such direct and swift self-help is economically desirable if it saves resources and reduces uncertainty. But while self-help may appear efficient from a particular individual’s perspective, it can also produce negative externalities—i.e., costs imposed on third parties or on society at-large. Self-help can, for example, lead to violence, retaliation, or other forms of disorder that undermine overall social welfare. These negative spillover effects are a key reason why most legal systems regulate or limit self-help rights. Without legal constraints, private enforcement risks devolving into cycles of revenge or arms races in security measures, raising social costs substantially.

From a law & economics perspective, the optimal legal regime finds a balance: allowing some forms of self-help where it efficiently remedies minor issues (e.g., repossession of collateral under certain conditions), but prohibiting it where it might cause disproportionate harm or risk (e.g., the use of baseball bats to enforce debt collection). Legal frameworks may thus grant limited self-help rights—like the right to retake wrongfully held chattel or to delimb an overhanging tree without going to court—while imposing rules that minimize violence or wrongful deprivation.

In the context of illegal online gambling, self-help would likely come primarily in the form of public-information campaigns. Thus, operators of legal online gambling websites and apps might communicate the dangers of illegal operators, emphasizing the risk that those operators fail to mitigate. Part of this process might include, for example, purchasing domain names similar to those of the illegal operators, and redirecting the URL to a webpage highlighting these dangers and providing links to one or more legitimate operators.

D. Site Blocking

If the legal system reliably enforces rights at relatively low cost, individuals will be less tempted to engage in self-help. Well-defined property rights, contract-enforcement mechanisms, and efficient dispute-resolution institutions enable private parties to resolve conflicts, reducing the need for either regulatory intervention or self-help.[88] In other words, the presence of a competent and accessible formal legal system can be seen as a public good that deters suboptimal actions and prevents wasteful conflicts.

One way the legal system could facilitate more effective protection of legal online gambling in the United States would be to provide those legal operators with a private right of action to require internet service providers (ISPs) to block access to illegal operators, or to require or encourage other intermediaries to prevent access to specific web domains. Indeed, this strategy (“site blocking”) has been considered and, in some cases, implemented to curb illegal online gambling. By making it harder for users to reach unlicensed or unauthorized gambling sites, governments and regulatory bodies can steer bettors toward legal, regulated platforms or deter them from wagering altogether. Mechanisms for site blocking include:

  1. Domain Name System (DNS) Filtering: ISPs are instructed to filter out or redirect traffic from certain domain names. When users attempt to access these domains, they are either blocked outright or redirected to a warning page.
  2. IP Address Blocking: Similar to DNS filtering, but more direct. ISPs block traffic to specific IP addresses known to host illegal gambling services.

Site blocking makes it more difficult for customers to access illegal gambling sites, making those sites less attractive and harder to find. As a result, players are encouraged to use regulated, taxed, and monitored platforms that protect consumers and support public revenue. Since legal sites in U.S. states generally have stronger age-verification and responsible gambling tools, blocking unregulated sites can help to prevent vulnerable populations from accessing unsafe environments.

There are, however, numerous technological workarounds to evade site-blocking restrictions. Motivated users can often circumvent site blocking through VPNs, mirror sites, or the use of alternative DNS services. This undermines the effectiveness of blocking strategies.

In addition, as noted, many illegal gambling sites operate from jurisdictions that have not, historically, been terribly cooperative with U.S. authorities. Site blocking, therefore, becomes yet a Whack-a-Mole game, with sites frequently changing their domain names and IP addresses.

Mandating that ISPs block sites in response to demands from private actors also raises questions about free speech and the respective roles of government and private actors in regulating the internet. These are not trivial matters, as they may inadvertently affect legitimate activities, leading to overblocking and potential legal challenges. In addition, implementing and maintaining site-blocking infrastructure can be resource-intensive.

Notwithstanding these concerns, several countries have experimented with site blocking as part of broader efforts to control illegal gambling. For instance, Italy, France, and Denmark have used site blocking in conjunction with licensing regimes. While results have been mixed, some jurisdictions that have employed site blocking have seen reductions in the visibility and market share of illegal operators.

If implemented cautiously, site blocking may serve as a partial deterrent to illegal online gambling by making it less convenient to access unregulated platforms. It is not, however, a silver bullet. In practice, site blocking’s effectiveness is likely to depend on the overall regulatory ecosystem. It should be seen, at best, as a complement to consumer education, international cooperation, and the creation of attractive legal gambling options.

E. Conclusion

In digital markets, where rapid technological change and information asymmetries often make public enforcement costly or impractical, self-help and private enforcement through new rights of action, such as site blocking, can be more efficient and effective than government intervention. This is in no small part because legitimate businesses typically have significant informational and technological advantages over regulators in identifying and responding to illegal competition. As such, regulatory frameworks should seek to facilitate private ordering, rather than relying primarily on public enforcement.[89] This approach, however, requires careful attention to potential externalities and the risk that private enforcement might exceed socially optimal levels.

The self-help framework thus suggests that optimal digital regulation should focus not just on direct enforcement, but on creating conditions for legitimate market participants to effectively protect their interests while serving broader regulatory goals. This insight provides theoretical support for examining how current regulatory frameworks might be refined to better leverage private ordering to address illegal online activities.

V. The Perverse Effects of Federal Excise Taxes

As noted above, the federal excise tax on gambling, introduced in 1951, was originally designed to suppress illegal bookmaking operations by imposing financial burdens on those engaging in sports betting.[90] At the time, the gambling industry operated almost entirely outside legal frameworks, making enforcement difficult and the tax a tool for deterrence. But with sports betting now legal in most U.S. states, it is far from clear that the tax serves any useful purpose; indeed, as discussed below, it is now likely counterproductive.

A. Structure of the Tax

The federal tax now comprises two key components: a 0.25% tax on all legal wagers (known as the “handle tax”) and a $50 annual head tax per employee involved in accepting wagers.[91] While these rates might appear modest at first glance (certainly compared to the original, intentionally punitive 10% tax), their structural design and cumulative impact create significant competitive disadvantages for legal operators.

The handle tax’s design is particularly problematic in that it applies to the total amount wagered, rather than operator revenue. This means operators pay taxes on their entire betting volume regardless of whether they ultimately profit from those wagers. Further, when combined with state-specific taxes, legal operators face a large overall tax burden that offshore competitors simply circumvent. The impact of this tax structure manifests directly in market pricing, creating measurable competitive disadvantages for legal operators.

For example, to cover these tax obligations and compliance costs, legal sportsbooks typically must charge a higher house take than their offshore competitors. A typical spread bet at a legal sportsbook requires bettors to wager $110 to win $100, while offshore operators can offer more favorable odds, requiring only $105 to win $100.[92] This difference, while seemingly small per individual bet, compounds significantly for frequent bettors and creates a powerful incentive to seek illegal alternatives.

The $50 annual head tax per employee, though also seemingly nominal, can further distort the market by discouraging job creation and pushing operators toward automation, rather than hiring additional staff for customer service and compliance functions.

What was once a tool to combat illegal gambling now inadvertently undermines the very legal market it seeks to protect. By failing to adjust the tax structure to reflect modern regulatory realities, the federal excise tax creates a paradoxical outcome: it weakens the competitiveness of legal operators while bolstering the appeal of unregulated alternatives.

B. Competitive Disadvantages for Legal Operators

As noted, one of the clearest ways that offshore gambling platforms outcompete their legal counterparts is through pricing. Although a difference of, say, $5 may seem trivial on a single wager, it accumulates substantially for frequent bettors, making offshore platforms far more appealing to price-sensitive consumers. Additionally, the pricing gap compounds the competitive disadvantage when combined with other operational disparities. Offshore platforms, for example, routinely offer larger bonuses and promotions—e.g., 100% deposit matches of up to $1,000, compared to the more modest 50% matches with stringent wagering requirements typical of legal sportsbooks.[93] These incentives, coupled with better odds, make offshore platforms particularly attractive, even as they expose users to significant risks, such as a lack of consumer protections or legal recourse.

The compounding effect of these various tax burdens creates another paradox: measures intended to generate public revenue may actually reduce total tax receipts by driving activity toward untaxed illegal markets. This dynamic is exacerbated by the digital nature of these markets, where consumers can easily compare odds and switch between legal and illegal platforms. When regulatory costs force legal operators to offer consistently worse value propositions than their illegal competitors, even consumers who would prefer to use regulated platforms may find the price differential too significant to ignore.

The pricing gap is not merely a reflection of business efficiency, but a structural disadvantage created by outdated regulatory frameworks. While legal operators invest heavily in compliance measures, responsible-gaming programs, and state-mandated reporting, offshore platforms avoid these costs entirely. This disparity enables illegal operators to channel their cost savings directly into consumer-attractive pricing and promotions, drawing bettors away from the regulated market.

This dynamic highlights the paradox of current U.S. gambling regulations: policies designed to promote fairness and consumer protection can inadvertently push consumers toward unregulated alternatives that lack these safeguards. Addressing these competitive disadvantages through measures such as tax reform and enhanced enforcement tools would represent a critical step toward restoring the integrity and appeal of the legal gambling market.

IV. Conclusion and Recommendations

The online gambling market illustrates how outdated tax and regulatory frameworks can inadvertently strengthen the illegal markets they were designed to combat. Our analysis suggests the need for a two-pronged approach that combines tax reform with enhanced enforcement tools to create conditions under which legitimate operators can compete effectively, while maintaining robust consumer protections.

The single change likely to generate the greatest benefit would be to repeal federal excise taxes on gambling. Several pieces of legislation proposed in the 118th Congress would do just that. For example, the Withdrawing Arduous Gaming Excise Rates (WAGER) Act would eliminate the federal handle tax.[94] Meanwhile, the Discriminatory Gaming Tax Repeal Act would repeal the excise tax on sports wagering.[95] These reforms are aimed directly at addressing the competitive disadvantages that legal operators face, while aligning with broader harm-reduction principles.

If excise-tax repeal of is not possible, Congress should consider approaches like those in the UK and Denmark that assess tax on gross gaming revenue (GGR)—that is, a tax on the profit a bookmaker takes, rather than on the entire handle.[96] Admittedly, this approach is imperfect, and both jurisdictions have apparently steep tax rates (with more increases promised in the future).[97] Nonetheless, a GGR-based approach would better align operator incentives with public-policy goals by taxing actual gambling profits, rather than total betting volume.

Tax reform alone would, however, be insufficient. As discussed in earlier sections, self-help actions such as educating gamblers about the dangers of using offshore websites, as well as the introduction of private rights of action such as site blocking, represent crucial complementary tools to channel consumers toward legitimate services. Just as site blocking has helped to combat online piracy, it can effectively restrict access to offshore gambling platforms. Moreover, both self-help and private rights of action are likely to be more effective when combined with policy reforms that enable legitimate operators to offer competitive products.

[1] See Sizing The Illegal And Unregulated Gaming Markets In The United States, Am. Gaming Ass’n (Nov. 2022), at 3, available at https://www.americangaming.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Sizing-the-Illegal-and-Unregulated-Gaming-Markets-in-the-US.pdf (because this figure includes bookmakers, the total attributable to offshore websites may be slightly lower; in addition, the AGA estimates that roughly $110 billion is wagered using “unregulated machines” in bars, taverns, and other venues).

[2] See James Bisson, One-Third of Sports Bettors in Legal States Still Use Offshore Sportsbooks, Covers (Aug. 12, 2024), https://www.covers.com/politics/covers-betting-habits-survey.

[3] See Yield Sec Report: Illegal US Gross Gaming Revenue Continues to Significantly Outpace Legal GGR, iGB Ed. Team (Aug. 27, 2024), https://igamingbusiness.com/gaming/yield-sec-sports-betting-illegal-market.

[4] George G. Fenich, A Chronology of Gaming in the U.S., 3 (2) Gaming Rsch. & Rev. J. 65, 66 (1996), https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1223&context=grrj.

[5] Jonathan D. Cohen, How Lottery Money Helped Build the United States: The Secret History of American Lotteries, Vox (Oct. 24, 2018), https://www.vox.com/first-person/2018/10/24/18018720/mega-millions-lottery-power-ball-drawing.

[6] Fenich, supra note 4 at 66.

[7] Cohen, supra note 5.

[8] G. Robert Blakey & Harold A. Kurland, The Development of the Federal Law of Gambling, 63 (6) Cornell L. Rev. 923, 1021 (1978), https://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4158&context=clr.

[9] Id. at 931.

[10] Id. at 939.

[11] David G. Schwartz, Cutting the Wire: Gaming Prohibition and the Internet (U. Nev. Press, 2005), at 24.

[12] See Matthew Vaz, Gambling in the Northern City: 1800 to 2000, Oxf. Res. Encycl. Am. Hist. (Nov. 20, 2018), https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199329175.013.560.

[13] Id.

[14] Schwartz, supra note 11, at 33-34.

[15] Vaz, supra note 12.

[16] See Steven Riess, Horse Racing the Chicago Way: Gambling, Politics, and Organized Crime, 1837-1911 (Syracuse U. Press, 2022).

[17] Arne K. Lang, Sports Betting and Bookmaking: An American History (Rowman Littlef. Publ., 2016).

[18] See History of Monmouth Park, Monmouth Park, https://www.monmouthpark.com/about (last visited Dec. 16, 2024), (for example, the New Jersey Legislature banned both horse racing and parimutuel betting in 1894); New Jersey Sports Betting, Knup Sports, https://knupsports.com/sports-betting/usa/new-jersey (last visited Dec. 16, 2024), (in an 1897 referendum, voters approved a proposal to ban all gambling in the state; New York State followed suit, banning betting with the Hart-Agnew Law of 1908).

[19] Oral Betting Upheld by Appellate Court, N.Y. Times (Nov. 21, 1908), at 12, https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1908/11/21/104813454.html?pageNumber=12.

[20] Legalized Gambling in Nevada: Its History, Economics and Control, Nev. Gaming Comm’r & St. Gaming Control Bd. (1963), at 7.

[21] Jennifer Roberts et al., Practical Perspectives on Gambling Regulatory Processes for Study by Japan: Eliminating Organized Crime in Nevada Casinos, U. Nev. Las Vegas Int’l Gaming Inst. (Aug. 25, 2017), available at https://www.unlv.edu/sites/default/files/page_files/27/JapanEliminatingOrganizedCrime.pdf.

[22] See Kevin Flynn, How NH Defied the Feds, Mob and Church to Create the First State Lottery, N.H. Mag. (Dec. 14, 2015), https://www.nhmagazine.com/how-nh-defied-the-feds-mob-and-church-to-create-the-first-state-lottery; see also Chapter 2: Gambling in the United States, Nat’l Gambling Impact Study Comm’n Rep., available at https://govinfo.library.unt.edu/ngisc/reports/2.pdf (last visited Dec. 14, 2024).

[23] Casino Gaming in New Jersey, St. of N.J. Casino Control Comm’n, https://www.nj.gov/casinos/law/gamingnj (last visited Dec. 14, 2024); see also Julie Hunsaker, The Impact of Riverboat Casinos on the Demand for Gambling at Casino Resorts: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation, 22 Managerial & Dec. Econ. 98 (2001), (by the mid-1990s, these riverboat casinos were netting about the same GGR as Las Vegas and Atlantic City combined).

[24] California v. Cabazon Band of Mission Indians, 480 U.S. 202 (1987).

[25] 25 U.S.C. § 2701 et seq. (1988).

[26] See American Indian Communities in Minnesota Gaming, Minn. St. S. Couns. & Rsch., https://www.senate.mn/departments/scr/report/bands/gaming.htm (last visited Dec. 15, 2024).

[27] James Schaap & Angel Gonzalez, The Growth of the Native American Gaming Industry: An Update, 16 (1) S.U. Coll. Bus. E-J. (2021), https://digitalcommons.subr.edu/cbej/vol16/iss1/1.

[28] 18 U.S.C. §§ 1081, 1084 (2012); see also Schwartz, supra note 11, 80-113.

[29] 18 U.S.C. §§ 1961-1968 (2018).

[30] See Schwartz, supra note 11, at 169-170.

[31] Id. at 176-197.

[32] 28 U.S.C. §§ 3701-3704 (2012).

[33] Id.

[34] 138 S. Ct. 1461 (2018)

[35] US Legal Sports Betting by State: 2024, Gambling Indus. News, https://gamblingindustrynews.com/usa-legal-sportsbetting (last visited Dec. 15, 2024).

[36] The Rise of Sports Betting: Market Trends and Business Opportunities, Bus. Matters (Nov. 4, 2024), https://bmmagazine.co.uk/business/the-rise-of-sports-betting-market-trends-and-business-opportunities.

[37] See Benjamin C. Wickert, All In, But Left Out: How the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act Seeks to Eradicate Online Gambling in the United States, 10 (1) Vand. J. Ent. & Tech. L. 215, 221-22 (2017), https://scholarship.law.vanderbilt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1349&context=jetlaw.

[38] See New AGA Report Shows Americans Gamble More Than Half a Trillion Dollars Illegally Each Year, Am. Gaming Ass’n (Nov. 30, 2022), https://www.americangaming.org/new/new-aga-report-shows-americans-gamble-more-than-half-a-trillion-dollars-illegally-each-year.

[39] See Virginia A. Seitz, Whether Proposals by Illinois and New York to Use the Internet and Out-Of-State Transaction Processors to Sell Lottery Tickets to In-State Adults Violate the Wire Act, Dep’t. Just. Off. Legal. Couns. (Sep. 20, 2011), available at www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/olc/opinions/2011/09/31/state-lotteries-opinion.pdf.

[40] See notes 41-47 and accompanying text.

[41]  John E. Coons, The Federal Gambling Tax and the Constitution, 43 (5) J. Crim. L. Criminology & Police Sci. 637, 637 (1953), https://www.jstor.org/stable/1139648?origin=crossref.

[42] Id.

[43]  See Wayne Taylor et al., Online Gambling Policy Effects on Tax Revenue and Irresponsible Gambling (SMU Cox Sch. of Bus. Rsch. Paper No. 24-7, Jun. 2024), at 3 & n.2, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4856684.

[44] See Press Release, Cortez Masto, Hyde Smith Introduce Bipartisan Bill to Boost Local Sports Tourism and Gaming Economy, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (Jun. 31, 2024), https://www.cortezmasto.senate.gov/news/press-releases/cortez-masto-hyde-smith-introduce-bipartisan-bill-to-boost-local-sports-tourism-and-gaming-economy/#:~:text=Established%20in%201951%20to%20suppress,for%20legal%20sports%20betting%20businesses.

[45] Amanda V. McCormick & Irwin M. Cohen, A Review of Online Gambling Literature 2007 (Univ. Fraser Val., 2007), at 19-20, available at https://cjr.ufv.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Review-of-Online-Gambling-Literature.pdf.

[46] Joel Weinberg, Everyone’s A Winner: Regulating, Not Prohibiting, Internet Gambling, 35 Sw. U. L. Rev. 293, 295 (2006), https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/swulr35&div=19&id=&page=.

[47] 26 U.S.C.A. § 61 (2017), (the federal tax code requires payment of taxes on “all income from whatever source derived”).

[48] See Mike Lukas, AGA Calls on US Attorney General to Prosecute Illegal Offshore Sportsbooks, WSN (Oct. 14, 2022), https://www.wsn.com/betting/aga-prosecute-illegal-offshore-sportsbooks; Katarina Vojvodic, Illegal Offshore Online Gambling Targeted by Seven State Regulators, PlayUSA (Jan. 8, 2024), https://www.playusa.com/seven-states-ask-doj-fight-illegal-online-gambling.

[49] See Rob Davies, Revealed: How Bookies Clamp Down on Successful Gamblers and Exploit the Rest, The Guardian (Feb. 19, 2022), https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/feb/19/stake-factoring-how-bookies-clamp-down-on-successful-gamblers; Josh Schwartz, Blacklisted and Offshore Casinos: Avoid to Play Here!, Captain Gambling (Dec. 12, 2024), https://www.captaingambling.com/blacklisted-casino; Jonathan, Dangers of Offshore Sportsbooks: States Cracking Down, Birches Health (Jun. 8, 2024), https://bircheshealth.com/resources/offshore-sportsbooks.

[50] See, e.g., Rachel A. Volberg et al., An International Perspective on Youth Gambling Prevalence Studies, 22(l) Int. J. Adolescent Med. Health 38 (2010).

[51] See Chav Vasilev, Cryptocasino BC.Game Appears on the Verge of Going Out of Business, Bonus.com (Nov. 28, 2024), https://www.bonus.com/news/cryptocasino-bc-game-appears-on-the-verge-of-going-out-of-business; Jill R. Dorson, Offshore Sportsbook 5Dimes Is Shutting Down to U.S. Customers, Eyeing Rebirth in States, Handle (Sep. 7, 2020), https://sportshandle.com/5dimes-sportsbook-offshore-legal.

[52] Vasilev, id.

[53] See Kathryn R. L. Rand & Steven Andrew Light, Sports Betting and Data Security: Cybersecurity, Data Protection, and Privacy Rights in Gaming Law Practice, ABA Bus. L. Today (Feb. 10, 2021), https://www.americanbar.org/groups/business_law/resources/business-law-today/2021-february/sports-betting-and-data-security.

 

[54] See Am. Gaming Ass’n, supra note 38.

[55] United States v. Scheinberg et al., No. 1:10-cr-00336 (S.D.N.Y. Apr. 11, 2011), available at https://www.justice.gov/archive/usao/nys/pressreleases/April11/scheinbergetalindictmentpr.pdf; Jon Sofen, Full Tilt Poker Scandal in 2011: The Darkest Days in Poker History, PokerNews (Dec. 6, 2022), https://www.pokernews.com/news/2022/11/full-tilt-poker-cheating-scandal-42534.htm.

[56] The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA) of 2006 prohibits financial institutions from processing transactions related to online gambling services not authorized under federal or state law (31 U.S.C. §§ 5361–5367). While the UIGEA does not criminalize the act of placing bets online, by prohibiting banks and payment processors from facilitating payments to unlicensed gambling websites, the act aims to choke off the financial lifeline of offshore operators.

[57] The Illegal Gambling Business Act (IGBA) of 1970 makes it a federal crime to operate an illegal gambling business that violates state laws (18 U.S.C. § 1955). This act provides federal authorities with jurisdiction to prosecute illegal gambling operations that have a substantial impact on interstate commerce.

[58] See Sofen, supra note 55.

[59] See Tiffany Hsu, PokerStars Settles for $731 Million, Buys Full Tilt, Pays Players, L.A. Times (Jul. 31, 2012), https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mo-pokerstars-full-tilt-20120731-story.html; United States v. Pokerstars et al., No. 11-cv-2564 (S.D.N.Y. Mar. 16, 2016), ECF No. 304, https://docs.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/new-york/nysdce/1:2011cv02564/377900/304; United States v. Pokerstars et al., No. 11-cv-2564 (S.D.N.Y. July 14, 2014), EFC No. 241 (Motion to Dismiss), https://docs.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/new-york/nysdce/1:2011cv02564/377900/241; Press Release, Manhattan U.S. Attorney Announces $731 Million Settlement of Money Laundering and Forfeiture Complaint with PokerStars and Full Tilt Poker, Fed. Bur. Investig. (Jul. 31, 2012), https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/newyork/press-releases/2012/manhattan-u.s.-attorney-announces-731-million-settlement-of-money-laundering-and-forfeiture-complaint-with-pokerstars-and-full-tilt-poker.

[60] Id.

[61] Sofen, supra note 55.

[62] See Press Release, Bodog and Four Canadian Individuals Indicted for Conducting Internet Gambling Business Generating Over $100 Million in Sports Gambling Winnings, Dep. Justice (Feb. 28, 2012), https://www.justice.gov/archive/usao/md/news/2012/BodogandFourCanadiansIndictedforConductingInternetGamblingBusinessGeneratingover100Million.html.

[63] Id.

[64] Bodog Is Now Bovada in the US, Sports Gambl. Websites (2018), https://www.sportsgamblingwebsites.com/bodog-is-now-bovada-in-the-us.

[65] Jonathan Lynn, Antigua Wins Modest Sanctions in U.S. Gambling Case, Reuters (Dec. 21, 2007), https://www.reuters.com/article/technology/antigua-wins-modest-sanctions-in-us-gambling-case-idUSL21601574.

[66] Tomer Broude & Doron Teichman, Outsourcing and Insourcing Crime: The Political Economy of Globalized Criminal Activity, 62 Vand. L. Rev. 795, 818 (2009); Jack L. Goldsmith, Against Cyberanarchy, 65 U. Chi. L. Rev. 1199, 1222 (1998).

[67] See Derek E. Bambauer, Ghost in the Network, 162 (5) U. Pa. L. Rev. 1011 (2014), https://scholarship.law.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=9439&context=penn_law_review.

[68] See Pierre-Hugues Verdier, Transnational Enforcement Leadership and the World Police Paradox, 64 Va. J. Int’l L. 239, 264–66 (2024), https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4755507; Anupam Chander, The Electronic Silk Road, How the Web Binds the World in Commerce (Yale Univ. Press, 2013), https://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/facpub/2297.

[69] See Richard A. Posner & William M. Landes, Market Power in Antitrust Cases, 94 (5), Harv. L. Rev., 937 (1980), https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2551&context=journal_articles.

[70] See Gary S. Becker, Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach, 76 (2) J. Pol. Econ. 169 (1968), https://www.jstor.org/stable/1830482.

[71] See, e.g., infra notes 90-93 and accompanying text (discussing how U.S. tax policy inadvertently makes illegal offshore betting a more viable industry).

[72] What Is Geo-Blocking and How to Bypass It Successfully?, 01net, https://www.01net.com/en/vpn/geo-blocking (last visited Dec. 14, 2024).

[73] Pierre-Hugues, supra note 68, at 239, 257.

[74] Id. at 267.

[75] See Hal R. Varian, Computer Mediated Transactions, 100 (2) Am. Econ. Rev. 1 (2010), available at https://people.ischool.berkeley.edu/~hal/Papers/2010/cmt.pdf (noting how the “bits” that string together to form the internet constitute solutions to emergent demand based on user and consumer preferences).

[76] See Friedrich Schneider, Shadow Economics and Corruption all Over the World: What do we Really Know? (IZA Discussion Paper No. 2315, 2006), available at https://docs.iza.org/dp2315.pdf.

[77] See Robert P. Merges, Compulsory Licensing vs. the Three “Golden Oldies” Property Rights, Contracts, and Markets, Policy Anal. (Jan. 15, 2004), available at https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa508.pdf (discussing the development of market solutions and collective-rights organizations as obviating the need for such crude legislative approaches to content distribution as compulsory licenses).

[78] See Chris Cooke, Cloudflare Must Block Piracy Site, German Court Confirms, Complete Music Update (Nov. 29, 2023), https://completemusicupdate.com/cloudflare-must-block-piracy-site-german-court-confirms; Leveraging CDNs to Combat Content Piracy in Music Streaming, Cachefly (Mar. 7, 2024), https://www.cachefly.com/news/leveraging-cdns-to-combat-content-piracy-in-music-streaming.

[79] Julie E. Cohen, Between Truth and Power: The Legal Constructions of Informational Capitalism (Oxford U. Press, 2019), https://academic.oup.com/book/37371.

[80] See David J. Teece, Profiting from Innovation in the Digital Economy: Standards, Complementary Assets, and Business Models in the Wireless World, 47 (8) Res. Pol’y 1367 (2018), https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048733318300763 (Teece describes the complex business environments needed to ensure innovative businesses can thrive, highlighting the need for law and regulation to take seriously the idea that modern dynamic firms are not mere “widget” sellers but are part of highly complicated industries with dynamic cost structures; even apparently marginal changes in a legal environment can have large effects on legitimate operators).

[81] See Interactive U.S. Map: Sports Betting, Am. Gaming Ass’n, https://www.americangaming.org/research/state-gaming-map/ (last visited Dec. 14, 2024).

[82] See Ian Macintyre, States Where Online Gambling Is Legal in the USA, Altenar (Apr. 9, 2024), https://altenar.com/blog/states-where-online-gambling-is-legal-in-the-usa.

[83] See Press Release, AGA Statement on New Legislation to Repeal the Federal Sports Betting Excise Tax on Legal Operations, Am. Gaming Ass’n (Jul. 31, 2024), https://www.americangaming.org/new/aga-statement-on-new-legislation-to-repeal-the-federal-sports-betting-excise-tax-on-legal-operators.

[84] See Cass R Sunstein, The Limits of Quantification, (Harv. Pub. L. Working Paper No. 14-13, 2014), at 1, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2424878 (in regulatory theory, this approach aligns with literature on the “good enough,” which recognizes that pursuing theoretical optima may prove less effective than pragmatic interventions that account for real-world constraints; noting that, in imperfect-information environments, regulatory activity can nonetheless approximate good decisions); H.L.A. Hart, The Concept of Law (3d ed., Oxford U. Press, 2012), https://www.jstor.org/stable/2183110 (discussing how rule-based systems inevitably gravitate toward practical functional states, rather than theoretical purity).

[85] See Ian Ayres, & John Braithwaite, Responsive Regulation, Transcending the Deregulation Debate (Oxford U. Press, 1992), at 51-53, available at https://johnbraithwaite.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Responsive-Regulation-Transce.pdf.

[86] See Beyond Compliance: Reaping the Benefits of Geolocation Services, iGB Ed. Team (Dec. 3, 2024), https://igamingbusiness.com/gaming/beyond-compliance-reaping-the-benefits-of-geolocation-services-radar/#:~:text=In%20some%20cases%2C%20an%20operator,use%20a%20respective%20gambling%20app.

[87] In Lemmon v. Webb [1894] 3 Ch. 1, the English Court of Appeal clarified the principles governing the self-help remedy available to a property owner when a neighbor’s trees intrude onto their land. Specifically, the court recognized that a landowner has the right to cut back branches (or roots) of a neighbor’s tree that extend onto their property, so long as the trimming is done up to, but not beyond, the boundary line. The right to self-help was not contingent on giving prior notice to the tree’s owner, although doing so might be prudent. The landowner performing the trimming must ensure that no unnecessary damage is inflicted on the neighbor’s property, and the severed branches or roots should be offered back to the neighbor if they hold value.

[88] Guido Calabresi & A. Douglas Melamed, Property Rules, Liability Rules, and Inalienability: One View of the Cathedral, 85 (6) Harv. L. Rev. 1089, (1972), available at https://www.amherst.edu/media/view/123372/original/CalabresiMelamed.PDF (Calabresi & Melamed note that legal systems often choose between protecting entitlements through public or private enforcement based on transaction costs and institutional competence).

[89] See R.H. Coase, The Problem of Social Cost, 3 J.L. & Econ. 1 (1960), available at https://www.law.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/file/coase-problem.pdf (Coase observed that private ordering often allows for externalities to be effectively handled by market processes and contracting); Henry G. Manne, Insider Trading and the Stockmarket, 57 (4) Duke L.J. 456 (1969), https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2096&context=dlj; Elinor Ostrom, Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990).

[90] See The Federal Gambling Tax and the Constitution, 43 (5) J. Crim. L. Criminology & Police Sci. 637 (1953), https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4067&context=jclc.

[91] See Sports Wagering, Inter. Revenue Serv., https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/sports-wagering (last visited Dec. 16, 2024); id.

[92] Damjan Jugovic Spajic, What Is a Sportsbook? The Basics Explained, PlayToday (Feb. 28, 2024), https://playtoday.co/blog/guides/what-is-a-sportsbook; Cole Rush & Brian Pempus, What Is the Vig in Betting?, Forbes Betting (Nov. 5, 2024), https://www.forbes.com/betting/guide/vig (noting that “discount” sportsbooks require a lower wager to win an equivalent payout as legitimate sportsbooks).

[93] See Offshore Sportsbook Authority Since 1999, BMR Bookmakers Rev., https://www.bookmakersreview.com (last visited Dec. 17, 2024), (comparing the various incentives offered by online sportsbooks).

[94] S. 4872, 118th Cong. (2024), available at https://www.congress.gov/118/bills/s4872/BILLS-118s4872is.pdf.

[95] Discriminatory Gaming Tax Repeal Act, H.R. 1661, 118th Cong. (2023), https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/1661.

[96] See Robert Fletcher, Operator Share Price Tumble as UK Government Considering Gambling Tax Increase, iGB (Oct. 14, 2024), https://igamingbusiness.com/legal-compliance/britain-gambling-tax-increase; Rocco Porreca et al., Sports Gambling in Select Nations, Aspen Inst., https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329246249_Sports_Gambling_in_Select_Nations (last visited Dec. 16, 2024); Nina Henningsen, Gaming Law 2024, Denmark, Chambers and Partners, https://practiceguides.chambers.com/practice-guides/gaming-law-2024/denmark/trends-and-developments (last visited Dec. 20, 2024).

[97] See Fletcher, supra note 96 (the UK is currently at 21%, with rumors that an increase may be in the offing); Denmark Online Gambling Market-Impact Analysis, Indep. Rep. (2020), available at https://www.egba.eu/uploads/2020/06/Tax-analysis-Denmark.pdf (Denmark’s tax rate is 28%).

ISSUE BRIEFS

US Export Controls on AI and Semiconductors: Two Divergent Visions

Introduction The United States currently stands at a critical strategic crossroads regarding its policy on advanced semiconductor exports to China, particularly those used for artificial-intelligence . . .

Introduction

The United States currently stands at a critical strategic crossroads regarding its policy on advanced semiconductor exports to China, particularly those used for artificial-intelligence (AI) systems. The Biden administration implemented unprecedented restrictions on chip exports and semiconductor manufacturing equipment in October 2022,[1] which were subsequently expanded and refined in October 2023[2] and December 2024.[3] These decisions have significantly shaped the technological landscape and set the stage for what may become a defining issue for the new Trump administration.

At the heart of this policy debate is a fundamental question about timelines and predictions: how quickly will transformative AI capabilities develop, and what will China’s indigenous semiconductor capacity look like when they do? The answer to these questions profoundly affect whether current export-control policies will achieve their strategic objectives or potentially backfire.

The case for maintaining or strengthening chip export controls, championed by figures like Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei,[4] rests on the prediction that transformative AI capabilities will emerge relatively soon (within two-to-three years). If this “short-term advancement” scenario holds true, then denying China access to cutting-edge chips could meaningfully diminish their ability to deploy advanced AI systems at-scale, even if they were to be successful in either developing or copying the models. As Nathan Lambert notes, “a large part of export controls, if they work, is just that the amount of AI that can be run in China is going to be much lower.”[5]

Conversely, skeptics of chip-export controls, like Ben Thompson, question the long-term efficacy of such restrictions.[6] If truly significant AI advancements take longer (perhaps 10 or more years), China will likely develop its own chip-manufacturing capabilities during that timeframe. Under this “long-term independence” scenario, the primary effect of existing controls may be to deny revenue to U.S. firms like Nvidia Corp., while accelerating China’s push for technological self-sufficiency. As Dylan Patel observes: “China will win because of these restrictions long-term, unless AI does something in the short-term.”[7] Notably, some observers combine skepticism of export controls on chips with support for strengthening export controls on the equipment needed to manufacture chips.[8]

From a law & economics perspective, the question turns both on what the United States aims to accomplish by restricting chip exports and AI tools, and which future scenario is most likely.

This issue brief does not advocate for a specific approach to export controls. Instead, it aims to illuminate the assumptions, tradeoffs, and considerations that should inform this critical policy choice. By clarifying how differing forecasts about AI development and China’s technological trajectory recommend different optimal policies, we hope to provide the new administration with a framework to align its export-control strategy with its broader technological and geopolitical objectives.

I. Background: The Current Landscape

In recent, competition between the United States and China to develop their respective capacities for AI deployment and semiconductor manufacturing has intensified dramatically. This has been marked by several major developments that illustrated both the potential value of current U.S. export controls, and the limits of that strategy.

In January 2025, the Chinese AI firm Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Basic Technology Research Co. (DeepSeek) released its R1 reasoning model, which appeared to demonstrate capabilities that were competitive with the U.S.-based OpenAI’s o1.[9] What made this announcement particularly significant was that DeepSeek claimed to have accomplished this with substantially less computational resources than American companies typically employ—reportedly training the model for approximately $5-6 million, rather than the billions that some had assumed necessary. While some questioned these figures—noting they excluded research costs, distillation from other models, and human labor—the development nonetheless demonstrated China’s ability to innovate within existing constraints.[10]

This followed the 2023 revelation that Huawei, despite being subject to some of the strictest U.S. controls, had produced its Mate 60 Pro smartphone featuring a domestically manufactured 7nm processor made by SMIC.[11] While this doesn’t match Taiwan’s most advanced nodes (currently at 3nm), it represented a significant achievement for a company operating under significant restrictions. As Ben Thompson observed: “The existence of this chip wasn’t a surprise for those paying close attention: SMIC had made a 7nm chip a year earlier.” Nonetheless, the announcement triggered “overwrought reaction in Washington D.C.,” which led to further restrictions.[12]

The current U.S. export-control regime, established during the Biden administration, operates through several mechanisms. Fundamentally, it restricts the export to China of cutting-edge graphics processing units (GPUs) used for AI applications. The initial controls focused on controlling both interconnection bandwidth and computing performance, as measured by floating-point operations per-second (FLOPS). Later iterations primarily targeted computing performance. Alternate versions of the same chips (such as Nvidia’s H800 and H200) were created specifically for the Chinese market with reduced capabilities (so-called “nerfed” chips) in order to comply with these restrictions.

Beyond chip exports, the controls also restrict semiconductor-manufacturing equipment (SME) needed to produce advanced nodes, with particularly tight controls on extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines produced solely by Dutch firm ASML Holding. The restrictions also limit the ability of “U.S. persons” to support or service advanced semiconductor-manufacturing facilities in China, with rules that target both hardware and knowledge transfer.

The export controls invoke the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR) to extend U.S. jurisdiction over foreign-made items that incorporate U.S. technology, or that were manufactured using U.S. equipment. As Gregory Allen notes, the December 2024 update to the U.S. export controls even created “new FDPRs and updated de minimis provisions” that expanded unilateral U.S. authority, potentially capturing “all of the SME made by any company on Earth.”[13]

These restrictions have created a complex set of responses and adaptations. While they have slowed China’s advancement at the cutting edge, they haven’t stopped it entirely. As Allen noted, “SMIC was already producing and selling 7nm chips no later than July 2022 and potentially as early as July 2021, despite having no EUV machines.”[14] But the controls have “dramatically constrained SMIC’s ability to scale up 7nm production,” limiting output to the “low tens of thousands” of wafers monthly, instead of the “hundreds of thousands” originally planned.[15]

The restrictions have also spurred efficiency innovations. DeepSeek, for example, developed advanced techniques to overcome bandwidth limitations in the H800 chips they could legally access, programming “20 of the 132 processing units on each H800 specifically to manage cross-chip communications” by working at a lower programming level than Nvidia’s CUDA (for “Compute Unified Device Architecture”) parallel-computing platform.[16] Such adaptations reflect China’s determination to progress in AI development, despite the constraints imposed by U.S. export controls.

Meanwhile, the global semiconductor landscape remains dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), which produces the most advanced chips worldwide. As Ben Thompson notes, Taiwan’s proximity to mainland China, and China’s longstanding claims on the territory, contribute to a precarious geopolitical situation in which “TSMC’s foundries — and Samsung’s — are within easy reach of Chinese missiles,” which in turn presents “a major issue if you are a U.S. military planner.”[17] This dependence on Taiwan has motivated both U.S. political efforts to onshore chip manufacturing and Chinese ambitions for AI self-sufficiency.

It is against this complex backdrop that it now falls to the Trump administration to reassess U.S. export-control policy, weighing both the existing controls’ demonstrated effects and the potential trajectories for both AI development and Chinese semiconductor capacity in the coming years.

II. Key Decision Factors

A. Timeline Considerations

The most crucial factor in determining optimal export-control policy is predicting the timeline for transformative AI development. These predictions shape whether export controls will secure a meaningful advantage, or simply accelerate China’s push for independence.

1.  The short-term AI-advancement scenario

Proponents of the short-term AI-advancement scenario argue that truly transformative AI capabilities are imminent. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has suggested that “super powerful AI” could emerge by 2026-27, providing whichever nation possesses it with significant military advantages.[18] This prediction is used to justify maintaining strong export controls to ensure the United States and its democratic allies maintain their lead during this critical window.

Under this scenario, denying China access to cutting-edge chips would effectively limit that nation’s ability to deploy advanced AI models at-scale, even if the underlying technology could be developed or copied. As Dylan Patel notes:

To some extent, training a model does effectively nothing… The thing that Dario [Amodei is] (…) speaking to is the implementation of that model, once trained to then create huge economic growth, huge increases in military capabilities… But that requires a significant amount of compute.[19]

This argument is bolstered by accounts from Chinese AI firms themselves. DeepSeek CEO Liang Wenfeng has admitted that “money has never been the problem for us; bans on shipments of advanced chips are the problem.”[20]

2. Long-term AI-advancement scenario

Those who foresee a longer timeline for transformative AI argue that export controls could be counterproductive. Ben Thompson contends that denying China access to advanced chips primarily serves to sew “the seeds for competition in an industry — chips and semiconductor equipment — over which the U.S. has a dominant position.”[21] In other words, if significant AI breakthroughs take a decade or more, the current restrictions may simply motivate and accelerate China’s development of indigenous chipmaking capabilities.

The timeline debate reflects fundamental uncertainty about the pace and trajectory of AI progress. As Nathan Lambert observes:

if you’re making me give a year, I’m going to be like, “Okay, I have AI CEOs saying this. They’ve been saying two years for a while. (…) I need to take their word seriously, but also understand that they have different incentives.” So I would (…) add a few years to that. Which is how you get something similar to 2030 or a little after 2030..[22]

B. Technical Realities

In addition to the importance of predictions about AI timelines, U.S. export-control policy must also take account of practical technical considerations.

1. Training versus inference compute

Export controls must distinguish between computational power (commonly referred to as “compute”) used for training new AI models and for inference (deploying existing models). While training frontier models requires enormous compute resources, inference (running those models) also demands significant hardware, especially for advanced reasoning capabilities. Nathan Lambert points out that reasoning models like OpenAI’s o1 require especially significant amounts of computational power.[23]

2. China’s optimization innovations

One counterargument to export controls comes from China’s demonstrated ability to optimize AI systems under hardware constraints. DeepSeek’s R1 model achieved capabilities competitive with OpenAI’s o1 despite being forced by U.S. sanctions to use less-powerful H800 GPUs with constrained memory bandwidth.[24] AI investor Nat Friedman poses the question:

is it in fact the case that, if you impose sanctions on China so that they can’t get as much compute, then all you do is give them this constraint to optimize against, which says, ‘How can we squeeze every little bit of IQ out of every flop that we’ve got?’, and they just find clever ways of doing a lot more with a lot less.[25]

But optimization of this kind also produces tradeoffs; a company that focuses on optimization does so at the expense of putting their scarce top engineers on other tasks. It is at least possible that U.S. researchers who do not face such constraints will use their time to develop even better AI applications.

3. Manufacturing challenges beyond EUV

While export controls on EUV-lithography equipment have successfully prevented China from producing the most advanced logic chips, Chinese manufacturers have demonstrated the ability to produce 7nm chips using older deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography through techniques like multi-patterning. As Gregory Allen notes: “SMIC was already producing and selling 7 nm chips no later than July 2022 and potentially as early as July 2021, despite having no EUV machines.”14 This raises questions about the long-term effectiveness of equipment-focused export controls.

In response, Ben Thompson has argued that “it’s reasonable to assume that [SMIC’s] fab won’t progress further without a Chinese supplier developing” EUV.[26] Thompson advocates strengthening export controls on equipment that would allow China to make state-of-the-art chips, while abandoning export controls on finished chips.[27]

C. Economic Impacts

Export-control decisions carry significant economic consequences that must be weighed against potential security benefits.

1. Effects on US semiconductor companies

The impact of export controls on U.S. semiconductor companies has been debated extensively. Wafer-fabrication-equipment (WFE) suppliers have argued that export controls threaten their business model, with some politicians claiming that the companies face a “death spiral.”[28] The industry-research firm SemiAnalysis counters, however, that “[d]espite a short-term shock or loss of business, the slack is taken up by customers ex-China within a few quarters” and that “the 24 months under export controls have been among the best in history for American WFE suppliers.”[29]

For AI-chip manufacturers like Nvidia, the picture is more complex. Export controls harm Nvidia directly by reducing demand for their chips, but potentially help Nvidia indirectly by making it more difficult for Chinese competitors to develop products that perform as well. As Gregory Allen notes, Nvidia would likely prefer not to be bound by export controls.[30] On the other hand, however, “there are some elements of the new export control package that actually help Nvidia by hurting its Chinese competitors.”[31]

2. Taiwan’s economic security

The semiconductor industry, particularly TSMC, is critically important for Taiwan. As home to the world’s leading advanced-chip manufacturer, Taiwan has historically occupied a unique strategic niche, with its economic value serving as a potential deterrent against Chinese military aggression. U.S. export controls that look to hinder China’s technological advancement thus may paradoxically erode this carefully balanced deterrence mechanism. This shift could fundamentally alter the calculus of potential conflict by making Taiwan less economically indispensable to China, and thereby increasing the risk of military action.

As Ben Thompson notes:

… both China and the U.S. need access to the best chip maker in the world, along with a host of other high-precision pieces of the global electronics supply chain. That means that a hot war, which would almost certainly result in some amount of destruction to these capabilities, would be devastating…one of the risks of cutting China off from TSMC is that the deterrent value of TSMC’s operations is diminished.[32]

There are two mechanisms at play. First, to the extent that Chinese businesses cannot buy TSMC’s products, then a disruption due to war would not worsen their situation. Second, export controls serve to encourage the development of domestic manufacturing capacity in China for state-of-the-art chips. When Chinese manufacturers achieve this goal, then it may no longer be possible to  reinstate Chinese economic dependence on Taiwan.

3. Effects on US economy beyond semiconductor manufacturing

The short-term effects of chip export controls on the U.S. economy may be small beyond companies like WFE suppliers and Nvidia. But to the extent that they serve to reduce China’s dependence on Taiwanese manufacturing, the controls may increase the likelihood of a war over Taiwan. A hot war, disrupting all semiconductor manufacturing in Taiwan, would likely have very significant consequences for the U.S. economy. Taiwan manufactures not only the state-of-the-art (leading-edge) semiconductors used in iPhones and Nvidia’s top AI-focused products, but also other commodity (trailing-edge) chips that are indispensable for vast swaths of the modern economy, used in “everything from cars to stereos to refrigerators.”[33]

D. Geopolitical Dimensions

Export controls function within a broader geopolitical context that shapes their implementation and consequences.

1. Allied cooperation challenges

Effective export controls require cooperation from key allies, particularly Japan and the Netherlands, which host critical semiconductor-equipment manufacturers. Gregory Allen notes that: “White House officials have been discussing restrictions on capital equipment with counterparts in the Hague and Tokyo since Biden’s inauguration,” but that “the Netherlands apparently does not yet see eye-to-eye with U.S. assessments on the need to set the threshold at 16/14 nm or smaller for logic chips.”[34]

This cooperation challenge reflects differing economic interests and threat perceptions. In 2023, 29% of Dutch firm ASML’s sales were to customers in China, creating a strong disincentive to further restrict exports.[35]

2. Taiwan’s vulnerability

As noted in the previous section on economic impacts, Taiwan’s geopolitical vulnerability represents perhaps the most critical consideration in export-control policy. If export controls reduce China’s dependence on Taiwan, while maintaining Taiwan’s importance to the United States, this could create dangerous incentives for Chinese action. With broad and effective U.S.-imposed export controls on chips, China doesn’t risk disrupting their semiconductor supply chain by attacking Taiwan. On the other hand, a war in Taiwan would likely create massive disruptions for the U.S. economy due to the level of U.S. dependence on Taiwan-made chips.

III. Conclusion

The debate surrounding AI-related U.S. export controls reflects a fundamental uncertainty about technological trajectories. While the actual pace of AI advancement will ultimately determine policy efficacy, decisionmakers must act based on incomplete information. This brief has outlined two plausible scenarios—one in which transformative AI capabilities emerge rapidly and another in which they develop more gradually—and described how each suggests different optimal approaches to export controls.

For policymakers navigating this uncertainty, several principles warrant consideration, regardless which scenario materializes. First, export controls should be designed with sufficient flexibility to adapt as the technological landscape evolves. Static policies risk becoming either irrelevant or counterproductive as conditions change. Second, policy effectiveness depends heavily on multilateral cooperation. Unilateral actions by the United States face significant limitations, as demonstrated by China’s ability to procure restricted technologies through third-party countries. Third, the economic impacts of export controls extend beyond immediate revenue considerations to long-term market positioning and technological leadership. This includes the possibility that they will make it likelier that China will attack Taiwan, and the disruption to the U.S. economy that would entail.

Ultimately, the export-control decisions made in 2025 will reflect implicit forecasts about AI development trajectories. By acknowledging these forecasts explicitly and establishing clear metrics to evaluate them, policymakers can create more resilient policies capable of adaptation as technological realities unfold. Whichever approach the administration pursues, it should be implemented with clear objectives, regular reassessment mechanisms, and recognition of the inherent uncertainties in predicting technological futures.

[1] Martijn Rasser & Kevin Wolf, The Right Time for Chip Export Controls, Lawfare (Dec. 13, 2022), https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/right-time-chip-export-controls.

[2] Gregory Allen, Understanding the Biden Administration’s Updated Export Controls, Cent. Strateg. Int. Stud. (Dec. 11, 2024), https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-biden-administrations-updated-export-controls.

[3] Id.

[4] Dario Amodei, On DeepSeek and Export Controls, Dario Amodei (Jan. 2025), https://darioamodei.com/on-deepseek-and-export-controls.

[5] Lex Fridman, Dylan Patel, & Nathan Lambert, DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters, Lex Fridman Podcast (Feb. 3, 2025), https://lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan-patel-nathan-lambert-transcript.

[6] See, e.g., Ben Thompson, DeepSeek FAQ, Stratechery (Jan. 27, 2025), https://stratechery.com/2025/deepseek-faq.

[7] Fridman, Patel, & Lambert, supra note 5.

[8] Ben Thompson, AI Promise and Chip Precariousness, Stratechery (Feb. 25, 2025), https://stratechery.com/2025/ai-promise-and-chip-precariousness.

[9] Thompson, supra note 6.

[10] Id.

[11] Id.

[12] Id.

[13] Allen, supra note 2.

[14] Id.

[15] Id.

[16] Thompson, supra note 6.

[17] Ben Thompson, Chips and Geopolitics, Stratechery (May 19, 2020), https://stratechery.com/2020/chips-and-geopolitics.

[18] Amodei, supra note 4.

[19] Fridman, Patel, & Lambert, supra note 5.

[20] Jordan Schneider et al., Deepseek: The Quiet Giant Leading China’s AI Race, ChinaTalk (Nov. 27, 2024),  https://www.chinatalk.media/p/deepseek-ceo-interview-with-chinas; see also Allen, supra note 2.

[21] Thompson, supra note 6.

[22] Fridman, Patel, & Lambert, supra note 5.

[23] Id.

[24] Thompson, supra note 6.

[25] Ben Thompson, An Interview with Daniel Gross and Nat Friedman About Models, Margins, and Moats, Stratechery (Jan. 23, 2025), https://stratechery.com/2025/an-interview-with-daniel-gross-and-nat-friedman-about-models-margins-and-moats.

[26] Thompson, supra note 8.

[27] Id.

[28] Dylan Patel, Jeff Koch, & Sravan Kundojjala, Fab Whack-A-Mole: Chinese Companies Are Evading U.S. Sanctions, SemiAnalysis (Oct. 28, 2024), https://www.semianalysis.com/p/fab-whack-a-mole-chinese-companies.

[29] Id.

[30] Allen, supra note 2.

[31] Id.

[32] Ben Thompson, Taiwan and Tech’s Geopolitical Realities, ARM on Mac?, TSMC’s Choice, Stratechery (May 11, 2020), https://stratechery.com/2020/taiwan-and-techs-geopolitical-realities-arm-on-mac-tsmcs-choice.

[33] See Thompson, supra note 8.

[34] Allen, supra note 2.

[35] Toby Sterling, ASML Expects US, Dutch Export Rules to Hit China Sales by 10-15%, Reuters (Jan. 24, 2024), https://www.reuters.com/technology/asml-expects-us-dutch-export-rules-hit-china-sales-by-10-15-2024-01-24.

PRESENTATIONS & INTERVIEWS

Geoff Manne on the Rationale and Goals of Digital Competition Regulations

ICLE President Geoffrey A. Manne discusses the rationale and goals of digital competition regulations in a presentation to Argentina’s Foro Competencia. Video of the full . . .

ICLE President Geoffrey A. Manne discusses the rationale and goals of digital competition regulations in a presentation to Argentina’s Foro Competencia. Video of the full presentation is embedded below. Geoff’s presentation slides are attached.

Lazar Radic on Interoperability and Platforms

ICLE Senior Scholar Lazar Radic took part in a recent panel hosted by the Dynamic Competition Initiative on interoperability and its impact on platform competition . . .

ICLE Senior Scholar Lazar Radic took part in a recent panel hosted by the Dynamic Competition Initiative on interoperability and its impact on platform competition and innovation. Video of the full event is embedded below.

ICLE Panel: The Future of Antitrust, Lessons From Former Enforcers

With new or incoming leadership at both the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the U.S. Department of Justice Antitrust Division (DOJ), the International Center for . . .

With new or incoming leadership at both the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the U.S. Department of Justice Antitrust Division (DOJ), the International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE) gathered former antitrust enforcers to explore a critical question: What’s next for these agencies?

In a conversation moderated by ICLE President Geoffrey A. Manne, and with introductory remarks by ICLE Senior Scholar Daniel J. Gilman, experts Bill Blumenthal (former FTC General Counsel), Andrew C. Finch (former Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General and former Acting Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust), and Maureen Ohlhausen (former Commissioner and former Acting Chair of the FTC) discussed the future of U.S. antitrust enforcement.

Video of the full panel is embedded below.

Mikołaj Barczentewicz on Cybersecurity and Competition Law

ICLE Senior Scholar Miko?aj Barczentewicz was a guest of Cyen in a video conversation on the need to balance mobile security concerns with competition law. . . .

ICLE Senior Scholar Miko?aj Barczentewicz was a guest of Cyen in a video conversation on the need to balance mobile security concerns with competition law. Video of the full presentation is embedded below.

IN THE MEDIA

Daniel Lyons on Non-Delegation Doctrine

Daniel Lyons, ICLE academic affiliate, was quoted in a WDSU story about the Supreme Court’s review of a case that could eliminate the FCC’s Universal . . .

Daniel Lyons, ICLE academic affiliate, was quoted in a WDSU story about the Supreme Court’s review of a case that could eliminate the FCC’s Universal Service Fund, created at the instruction of Congress. Read the full article here.

“The existing non-delegation doctrine has allowed agencies to get stronger and stronger, and that’s allowed Congress to atrophy,” Boston College Law School’s Daniel Lyons said. “Congress is no longer making the big decisions.”

BEAD at ‘Significant Risk’ That Rules Changes Will Benefit SpaceX: Outgoing Director

Kristian Stout, director of innovation policy at ICLE, is quoted in this Communications Daily article on a warning about BEAD funding from the outgoing director . . .

Kristian Stout, director of innovation policy at ICLE, is quoted in this Communications Daily article on a warning about BEAD funding from the outgoing director of NTIA. Read the full story here.

Most proposed changes are “in keeping with the original spirit of BEAD,” said Kristian Stout, director-innovation policy at the International Center for Law & Economics. “We want to close the digital divide, and satellite is just one technology among many that are capable of dealing with some portion of that gap.”

DC Circ.’s Copyright Denial Of AI Art Is A Sign Of Future Fights

Kristian Stout, director of innovation policy at ICLE, was quoted in this Law360 story about a recent DC Circuit Court ruling on AI and copyright. . . .

Kristian Stout, director of innovation policy at ICLE, was quoted in this Law360 story about a recent DC Circuit Court ruling on AI and copyright. Read the full article here.

There is also a compelling reason to keep copyright registrations in the hands of humans, said Kristian Stout, director of innovation policy at the International Center for Law & Economics, a privately funded research group. “You can almost call it like a human protectionist element,” Stout said. “On the economic side, you want to make sure that you have the incentives for humans to keep producing the relevant works. Without new human works, the AI will just keep consuming its own outputs, which will be problematic in the long run.”

EU throws down gauntlet to Trump with Apple, Google rulings

Dirk Auer, director of competition policy at ICLE, was quoted in this Politico Europe story about recent EU rulings on Apple and Google. Read the full . . .

Dirk Auer, director of competition policy at ICLE, was quoted in this Politico Europe story about recent EU rulings on Apple and Google. Read the full article here.

In order to comply with the DMA, the Commission said Apple will need to give its competitors the same access to a range of existing iPhone functionalities, such as notifications and device-pairing, as it provides to its own devices like the Apple Watch.

The EU executive also stated that the company must overhaul how it communicates with developers.

For Apple, the decision amounts to a “micro-managing” of the future of the iPhone, said Dirk Auer of the International Center for Law & Economics.

Translated: Google makes biggest acquisition in its history in the Trump 2.0 era at a time when it is in the crosshairs of its competitors

Dirk Auer, director of competition policy at ICLE, was quoted in an Observador story about Wiz joining Google Cloud. Read the full article here. Translated . . .

Dirk Auer, director of competition policy at ICLE, was quoted in an Observador story about Wiz joining Google Cloud. Read the full article here.

Translated from Portuguese to English: The FTC is now led by Andrew Ferguson, who was appointed by Trump in January. Dirk Auer, director of competition policy at the International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE), acknowledges to the Observer the logic of “the previous FTC being either more aggressive or very skeptical about mergers ,” but also says that “the current leadership doesn’t seem to be particularly friendly to Google.” He therefore considers “that, although [the political context] may have played a role”, it probably “was not as big a role as one might initially think”.

 

Trump fires Democratic FTC commissioners

ICLE President Geoffrey A. Manne was quoted in a Reason story on the firing of Democratic FTC commissioners. Read the full article here. Geoffrey A. . . .

ICLE President Geoffrey A. Manne was quoted in a Reason story on the firing of Democratic FTC commissioners. Read the full article here.

Geoffrey A. Manne, president and founder of the International Center for Law and Economics, shares Berry’s prediction. In an email to Reason, Manne says Humphrey’s Executor “is probably not long for this world, and thus, neither is the ‘independence’ of the FTC.” Manne explains that the Federal Trade Commission Act requires that no more than three of the commissioners may be of the same political party. Accordingly, once Mark Meador, a Republican, is confirmed as FTC commissioner, “the Commission can just go on as is indefinitely.” Manne also notes that “independent agency independence has always been more limited than people like to believe.”

The new luxury item being smuggled from Mexico to the US? Eggs

Chief Economist Brian Albrecht was quoted in this Times of London article about egg prices. Read full piece here. But Brian Albrecht, chief economist at . . .

Chief Economist Brian Albrecht was quoted in this Times of London article about egg prices. Read full piece here.

But Brian Albrecht, chief economist at the International Center for Law & Economics in Minnesota, says the main driver of egg inflation is an obvious one: the avian flu outbreak that has prompted mass culling of hens.

“The first culprit is the killing of 15 per cent of the population of egg-laying chickens,” Albrecht said. “That’s a pretty clear smoking gun.”

He noted that the previous spikes in egg prices, in 2015 and 2023, also coincided with culling due to avian flu outbreaks and prices fell as flocks restored their numbers over the following year.

That’s a long time to bear the political heat of high egg prices, given that the attention people pay to the price of eggs is second only to that paid to the price of fuel, Albrecht said. “In the US, eggs and milk are often put together as the the quintessential indicator of how grocery prices are doing.”

Right now, eggs are an anomaly. February’s inflation data came in “a little cooler than expected”, with the yearly inflation of items in the Consumer Price Index at 2.8 per cent, Albrecht said.

It is much lower than inflation during the Covid pandemic, though it is still above pre-pandemic inflation, which was below 2 per cent.

The Inefficiencies of Regulatory Arbitrage

Senior Scholar Eric Fruits was cited in this blog post by Mark Goldberg on regulatory arbitrage and FCC regulations. Read full story here. A recent article . . .

Senior Scholar Eric Fruits was cited in this blog post by Mark Goldberg on regulatory arbitrage and FCC regulations. Read full story here.

A recent article on the Truth on the Markets blog was written about FCC regulations in the US, but most of the article applies equally in Canada.

The article talks about differences in regulating traditional broadcasters as contrasted with unregulated streaming services. “While consumers increasingly access video content through streaming platforms subject to minimal oversight, legacy media providers continue to operate under restrictive regulatory frameworks designed for a bygone era. This regulatory asymmetry creates economic inefficiencies and distorts competition.”

Sounds familiar, right? Canadians wouldn’t know that the author, Eric Fruits of the International Center for Law and Economics, was talking about FCC regulations in this article, rather than the CRTC.

“The inefficiencies of regulatory arbitrage multiply when different services that serve similar functions—such as broadcast, cable, and streaming—are regulated under different frameworks. As technologies converge, disparities among the regimes erected to regulate those technologies become increasingly problematic.”

 

Justice Department Doubles Down Against Google

ICLE President Geoffrey A. Manne was cited in this recent Reason article regarding the The Department of Justice’s revised proposed final judgment in its antitrust . . .

ICLE President Geoffrey A. Manne was cited in this recent Reason article regarding the The Department of Justice’s revised proposed final judgment in its antitrust case against Google. Read full story here.

The claim that these remedies would substantially diminish Google’s near-90 percent share of the general search engine market is highly dubious. Geoffrey A. Manne, president and founder of the International Center for Law and Economics, described the proposed remedies as “fail[ing] to meet antitrust’s requirement of a tight causal connection between offense and relief,” while threatening browser competition—Firefox received 86 percent of its funding from Google in fiscal year 2021—and “dissuading venture capital in AI more broadly.”

Manne tells Reason that the “new proposal shows that the DOJ under President Donald Trump intends to continue the highly politicized approach to Big Tech antitrust.” A substantive continuation of the anti-Big Tech antitrust policy begun by the first Trump administration and intensified under former President Joe Biden bodes poorly for domestic investmentinnovation, and consumer welfare.

Are Eggs the New Toilet Paper? Costco Shoppers Face Long Lines and Shortages

Chief Economist Brian Albrecht was quoted in this story in Best Life about rising egg prices amidst a supply shortage. Read full piece here. Thus, . . .

Chief Economist Brian Albrecht was quoted in this story in Best Life about rising egg prices amidst a supply shortage. Read full piece here.

Thus, egg prices hit a record average high of $4.95 in mid-February, according to the Associated Press, which points out that egg prices normally spike around Easter.

The Wall Street Journal adds that, per the Labor Department, “Grocers and food distributors are paying about $8 a dozen at wholesale, which makes selling them often a money-loser.”

And despite the Trump administration’s $1 billion five-point plan to fight bird flu and bring egg costs down (which includes importing eggs), industry experts say that relief isn’t on the horizon.

“I don’t think the five-point plan is going to do anything in the next three, four months,” Brian Albrecht, chief economist at the International Center for Law & Economics, told Barron’s. “We’re talking about a year or longer for the breeding cycle.”

Why Trump’s Plan to Combat Bird Flu Won’t Bring Egg Prices Down Immediately

Chief Economist Brian Albrecht was quoted in this Barron’s story on rising egg prices. Read full article here. “I don’t think the five-point plan is . . .

Chief Economist Brian Albrecht was quoted in this Barron’s story on rising egg prices. Read full article here.

“I don’t think the five-point plan is going to do anything in the next three, four months,” said Brian Albrecht, chief economist at the International Center for Law & Economics. “We’re talking about a year or longer for the breeding cycle.”

 

Media Ownership Rules Should be Tech-Neutral

Senior Scholar Eric Fruits was cited in this Communications Daily story on media ownership rules. Read full article here. Media ownership regulations should shift to being . . .

Senior Scholar Eric Fruits was cited in this Communications Daily story on media ownership rules. Read full article here.

Media ownership regulations should shift to being technology-neutral and recognizing that there is now an “integrated video-distribution market” that includes broadcast, cable and streaming, said International Center for Law & Economics Senior Scholar Eric Fruits in a blog post Wednesday. “Market power should be assessed based on a company’s share of this broader market, not just its dominance within a particular technological segment,” wrote Fruits, who is also an economics professor at Portland State University. “Instead of different rule books for different technologies, we need a unified framework based on competition principles.” This would involve sunsetting legacy rules tied to specific transmission mediums and basing any ownership rules on actual market share across all platforms, he said. “The focus should be on antitrust enforcement, rather than preemptive structural regulations.” If viewers “readily switch among cable, broadcast, and streaming based on content, rather than delivery method, regulations should treat these services as competitive alternatives,” Fruits wrote. Making that shift wouldn’t be simple but would allow “a media landscape in which competition would be waged on a level playing field and where consumers, not regulatory distinctions, determine which services succeed.”

High Egg Prices Lead to Accusations of Market Power: Unscrambling the Economics

The American Action Forum cites ICLE Chief Economist Brian Albrecht in this new piece on rising egg prices. Read full piece here. Economist Brian Albrecht . . .

The American Action Forum cites ICLE Chief Economist Brian Albrecht in this new piece on rising egg prices. Read full piece here.

Economist Brian Albrecht – who posted a blog discussing Bedoya’s claims – offered an economic rationale for why even a small change in egg production could yield such a large change in price. Albrecht concluded that the “size of the price change depends on both supply AND demand elasticities, which are about how easily the quantity supplied and quantity demanded respond to price changes.” Citing a previous estimate of supply and demand elasticities from the last episode of avian flu, Albrecht explained that “egg demand elasticity is -0.15, meaning a 1% increase in price only reduces quantity demand by 0.15%. Put differently, if the quantity supplied drops by 1%, prices will rise by about 6.67%.” In other words, the quantity demanded for eggs is not sensitive to price increases.

ICLE ON SOCIAL MEDIA

March Threads 2025

Threads from ICLE scholars on trending issues for the month of March 2025. @AuerDirk on anticipated Meta fine by EC under DMA: "By breaking this . . .

Threads from ICLE scholars on trending issues for the month of March 2025.