Schrödinger’s Quantum Market: Regulating What May or May Not Exist
Competition authorities are gearing up to regulate quantum computing. The problem: there is no market there yet.
In March 2026, the Italian Competition Authority (AGCM) launched an “IC59 fact-finding inquiry” into quantum, citing concerns that ongoing developments could shape long-term competition. Drawing on lessons from artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud markets, the AGCM flagged familiar risks: lock-in, technological preemption, and barriers to knowledge and entry.
The move reflects a broader shift in European competition policy following the Digital Markets Act (DMA). Regulators now focus less on prices and market share, and more on how markets are designed and governed—especially where control over key inputs may entrench gatekeepers and confer durable advantages.
That shift carries real risks for emerging technologies like quantum computing. The AGCM casts its inquiry as a “timely reconnaissance” of a nascent market—exploratory, not enforcement-driven. Even so, treating the quantum ecosystem as if it were already a mature market risks overstating what we can know about its trajectory. The technology remains too uncertain for reliable market analysis. Any risk assessment necessarily rests, at least in part, on incomplete and uncertain information, raising the prospect of unintended consequences for technological development.
Competition law rests on familiar assumptions: markets generate observable signals, and analysts can use those signals to assess competitive dynamics and identify harm. Authorities evaluate conduct—pricing, access restrictions, exclusionary agreements—against established benchmarks grounded in current market conditions and evidence. In quantum computing, however, market structures remain too underdeveloped to support meaningful competition analysis.