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Abstract

Economists well understand that the work of Friedrich Hayek contains important theoretical insights. It is less often acknowledged that his work contains testable predictions about the nature of market processes. Vernon Smith termed the most important one the ‘Hayek hypothesis’: that gains from trade can be realized in the presence of diffuse, decentralized information, and in the absence of price-taking behavior and centralized market direction. Vernon Smith tested this prediction by surveying data on laboratory experimental markets and found strong support. We extend Smith’s work first by showing how subsequent theoretical advances provide a theoretical foundation for the Hayek Hypothesis. We then test the hypothesis using recent field experimental market data. Using field experiments allows us to test several other predictions from Hayek, such as that market experience increases the realized gains from trade. Generally speaking, we find support for Hayek’s theories.

ICLE Academic Affiliate Jeremy Kidd, a professor at Drake Law School, recently joined the Talking Legal Ed podcast to discuss law & economics and how it is useful in the law-school classroom. Kidd identifies “the three things about economics that every legal educator should know”:

1. Incentives matter;
2. The optimum level of risk is not zero; and
3. Competition is good.

He also discusses how these three ideas help professors teach and students understand the law. Kidd talks about his experience engaging students in a law & economics reading group, including how providing that kind of intellectual challenge can lift students out of the doldrums of memorizing the law and keep their minds engaged in true learning. Finally, he talks about bringing his own law & economics scholarship into the classroom, and the various ways to integrate current examples in lesson plans.

The full podcast is embedded below.

Abstract

The value of lawyers to their clients is notoriously difficult to estimate due to endogeneity. We utilize modifications to the collateral source (CS) rule that require reducing trial awards by the amount of payments from first-party insurance as an instrument for hiring a lawyer. The problem with our instrument is that modifications to the CS rule have a direct effect on recovery, and hence violate the exogeneity requirement for a valid instrument. We develop a new identification and estimation method that uses CS rule changes as an invalid instrument and bounds the impact of lawyers. We find that the upper and lower bounds of our estimated impact are lower than estimates that do not correct for endogeneity. Our estimates of the impact of lawyers on total payment are uniformly negative. The upper bound of the effect of hiring a lawyer on total payment received is -$26,000 after fees in our preferred specification, which suggests that even in the most optimistic scenario lawyers appear to reduce total recovery.

In just over a century since its dawn, liberalism had reshaped much of the world along the lines of individualism, free markets, private property, contract, trade, and competition. A modest laissez-faire political philosophy that had begun to germinate in the minds of French Physiocrats in the early 18th century had, scarcely 150 years later, inspired the constitution of the world’s nascent leading power, the United States. But it wasn’t all plain sailing, as liberalism’s expansion eventually galvanized strong social, political, cultural, economic and even spiritual opposition, which coalesced around two main ideologies: socialism and fascism.

Read the full piece here.

The interplay among political philosophy, competition, and competition law remains, with some notable exceptions, understudied in the literature. Indeed, while examinations of the intersection between economics and competition law have taught us much, relatively little has been said about the value frameworks within which different visions of competition and competition law operate.

Read the full piece here.

Executive Summary

The British government is consulting on whether to lower the burden of proof needed by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to block mergers and acquisitions involving large tech companies that have been deemed as having strategic market status (SMS) in some activity. This is likely to include companies like Google and Facebook, but the scope may grow over time.

Under the current regime, the CMA uses a two-step process. At Phase 1, the CMA assesses whether or not a deal has a ‘realistic prospect of a substantial lessening of competition’. If so, the merger is referred to Phase 2, where it is assessed in depth by an independent panel, and remedied or blocked if it is deemed to carry a greater than 50 per cent chance of substantially lessening competition.

The reforms proposed by the government would stop any deal involving a SMS firm that creates a ‘realistic prospect’ of reducing competition. This has been defined by courts as being a ‘greater than fanciful’ chance.

In practice, this could amount to a de facto ban on acquisitions by Big Tech firms in the UK, and any others designated as having strategic market status.

Mergers and acquisitions are normally good or neutral for competition, and there is little evidence that the bulk of SMS firms’ mergers have harmed competition.

Although the static benefits of mergers are widely acknowledged, the dynamic benefits are less well-understood. We highlight four key ways in which mergers and acquisitions can enhance competition by increasing dynamic efficiency:

Acquisition is a key route to exit for entrepreneurs

• Startup formation and venture capital investment is extremely sensitive to the availability of exits, the vast majority of which are through acquisition as opposed to listing on a stock market. In the US, more than half (58%) of startup founders expect to be acquired at some point.
• According to data provider Beauhurst, only nine equity-backed startups exited through IPO in 2019. By contrast, eight British equity-backed startups were acquired last year by Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Apple alone.
• Cross-country studies find that restrictions on takeovers can have strong negative effects on VC activity. Countries that pass pro-takeover laws see a 40-50% growth in VC activity compared to others.
• Nine out of ten UK VCs believe that the ability to be acquired is ‘very important’ to the health of Britain’s startup ecosystem. Half of those surveyed said they would ‘significantly reduce’ the amount they invested if the ability to exit through M&A was restricted.

Acquisitions enable a ‘market for corporate control’

• M&A allows companies with specific skills, such as navigating regulatory processes or scaling products, to acquire startups and unlock value that would otherwise not be realised in the absence of a takeover.

Acquisitions can reduce transaction costs between complementary products

• M&A can encourage the development of complementary products that might not be able to find a market without the ability to be bought and integrated by an incumbent.
• In the presence of network effects or high switching costs, takeovers can be a way to allow incremental improvements to be developed and added to incumbent products that would not be sufficiently attractive to compete users away from the product by themselves.

Acquisitions can support inter-platform competition

• Competition in digital markets often takes place between digital platforms that have a strong position in one market and move into another market, sometimes using their advantage in the original market to gain a foothold in the new one. This often involves them moving into markets that are currently dominated by another digital platform, increasing competition faced by these companies.
• Acquisitions can accelerate this kind of inter-platform competition. Instead of starting from scratch, platforms can use mergers to gain a foothold in the new market, and do so more rapidly and perhaps more effectively than if they had to develop the product in-house.
• There are many examples of this kind of behaviour: Google’s acquisition of Android increased competition faced by Apple’s iPhone; Apple’s acquisition of Beats by Dre increased competition faced by Spotify; Walmart’s acquisition of Jet increased competition faced by Amazon in e-commerce; myriad acquisitions by Google, Amazon, and Microsoft in cloud computing have strengthened the competition each of those face from each other.

The UK risks becoming a global outlier

• There is a serious risk that the US and EU do not follow suit on merger regulation. Although the EU’s Digital Markets Act is highly restrictive in some ways, it does not propose any changes to the EU’s standards of merger control besides changes to notification thresholds.
• It is also unlikely that the US will follow suit. Although a bill has been brought forward in Congress, it may struggle to pass without bipartisan support. In the last Congress, between 2019 and 2020, only 2% of the 16,601 pieces of legislation that were introduced were ultimately passed into law.

The Government’s theories of harm caused by tech mergers are under-evidenced, hard to action, and do not require a change in the burden of proof to be effectively incorporated into the CMA’s merger review process.

The Government should instead consider a more moderate approach that retains the balance of probabilities approach, but that attempts to drive competition by supporting startups and entrepreneurs, and gives the CMA the tools it needs to do the best job it can within the existing burden of proof.

• To support startups, the government should: streamline venture capital tax breaks such as EIS and SEIS, lift the EMI caps to £100M and 500 employees to make it easier for scale-ups to attract world-class talent, and implement reforms to the pensions charge cap to unlock more of the £1tn capital in Defined Contribution pension schemes for investment in startups.
• The CMA should be better equipped to challenge deals that are potentially anti-competitive with lower and mandatory notification thresholds for SMS firms, alongside additional resourcing to bring the cases it believes may threaten competition.
• Most importantly, any new SMS mergers regime should be limited to the activities given SMS designation, not the firms as a whole, to avoid limiting the use of M&A to increase inter-platform competition.

Read the full white paper here.

We, the signatories of this letter, represent a broad range of public interest organizations. Our individual interests include such diverse matters as environmental protection, fair competition, consumer protection, economic growth and workforce development, and technology and innovation. Some of us frequently find ourselves on different sides of public policy debates. However, today we find common ground on an issue of considerable public importance concerning sales of electric vehicles (“EVs”). Specifically, we urge that any state laws still prohibiting car companies from selling their cars directly to consumers, or opening service centers for those vehicles, be amended to permit direct sales and service of EVs

We, the signatories of this letter, are active or emeritus professors employed at public or private universities in the United States. We specialize in economics, competition policy, market regulation, industrial organization, or other disciplines bearing on the questions presented in this letter. We come from across the political spectrum, and have a wide variety of views on regulation, environmental and consumer protection, and free enterprise as a general matter, but find common ground on the important issue of automotive direct sales.

SUMMARY OF ARGUMENT

In 2018, the FCC issued its Restoring Internet Freedom Order, 33 FCC Rcd. 311 (2018) [“2018 Order”], which returned broadband Internet access service (“broadband”) to a classification as a Title I information service. The FCC determined that a “light touch” regulatory regime was necessary to promote investment in broadband. Id. ¶¶ 1-2. While removing the “no-blocking” and “no-throttling” rules previously imposed under the 2015 Open Internet Order, Protecting and Promoting the Open Internet, Report and Order on Remand, Declaratory Ruling, and Order, 30 FCC Rcd. 5601 (2015) [“2015 Order”], the FCC also removed the “general conduct” standard—an open-ended regulatory catch-all that would permit the FCC to examine any conduct of broadband providers that it deemed potentially threatening to Internet openness. Cf. 2018 Order ¶¶ 239-245. Yet, notably, the FCC elected to keep a version of the 2015 Order’s transparency rule in place, which requires broadband providers to disclose any blocking, throttling, paid prioritization, or similar conduct. Id.

In retaining the transparency rule, the FCC noted that the FTC and state attorneys general are in a position to prevent anticompetitive consumer harm through the enforcement of consumer protection and antitrust laws. See 2018 Order ¶ 142. Thus, the overarching goal of the 2018 Order was to ensure business conduct which could be beneficial to consumers was not foreclosed by regulatory fiat, as would have been the case under the 2015 Order, while empowering the FCC, FTC, and state attorneys general to identify and address discrete consumer harms.

The Mozilla court noted that the FCC could invoke conflict preemption principles in order to prevent inconsistent state laws from interfering with the 2018 Order. Mozilla Corp. v. FCC, 940 F.3d 1, 85 (D.C. Cir. 2019) (per curiam). Without such preemption, a patchwork of inconsistent state laws would confuse compliance efforts and drive up broadband deployment costs. Cf. Id. Relying as it does on a common carriage approach to regulating the Internet, and fragmenting the regulation of broadband providers between the federal and state levels, SB-822 is at odds with the purpose of the 2018 Order.

The district court found the balance of the equities and the public interest both weighed in favor of California in enforcing SB-822, stating the law “provides crucial protections for California’s economy, democracy, and society as a whole,” Transcript of Proceedings, American Cable Ass’n v. Becerra, No. 2:18 cv-02684 (E.D. Cal. Feb. 23, 2021) (ER-7–78) [“Tr.”], and that a preliminary injunction would “negatively impact the State of California more than [it would benefit] the ISP companies.” Id. at 69. In denying the motion for a preliminary injunction, the court also found the Appellants failed to show a likelihood of success on the merits. Id. at 67.

The district court wrongly concluded the balance of equities tips in favor of Defendant-Appellee, the state of California, and incorrectly assumed that the Appellants’ members would not suffer irreparable harm. The economics underlying broadband deployment, combined with competition and consumer protection law, provide adequate protection to consumers and firms in the marketplace without enforcement of SB-822. And, because of the sovereign immunity provided to California under the Eleventh Amendment, the potential damages suffered by the Appellants’ members are unable to be remedied. On the other hand, the enforcement of this law will significantly harm the Appellants’ members as well as the public by allowing states to create a patchwork of inconsistent laws and bans on consumer welfare-enhancing conduct like zero-rating.

The district court made crucial errors in its analysis when balancing the equities.

First, when evaluating the likelihood of ISPs acting in ways that would reduce Internet openness, it failed to consider the economic incentives that militate against this outcome.

ISPs operate as multi-sided markets—their ability to draw consumers and edge providers on both sides of their platforms depends on behavior that comports with consumer expectations.  Both broadband consumers and edge providers demand openness, and there is no reason to expect ISPs to systematically subvert those desires and risk losing revenue and suffering reputational harm. Contrary to the district court’s characterization, the good behavior of ISPs is not attributable to scrutiny during the pendency of the current litigation: rather, it is a rational response to consumer demand and part of a course of conduct that has existed for decades.

Second, the district court discounted the legal backdrop that both would hold ISPs to their promises, as well as prevent them from committing competitive harms.

All of the major ISPs have made public promises to refrain from blocking, throttling, or engaging in paid prioritization. See infra Part I (A) at 17.  Further, the FCC’s 2018 Order creates a transparency regime that would prevent ISPs from covertly engaging in the practices SB-822 seeks to prevent. The FTC’s Section 5 authority to prevent “unfair or deceptive acts or practices” empowers that agency to pursue ISPs that make such promises and break them while state attorneys general can also bring enforcement actions under state consumer protection laws. 2018 Order ¶¶ 140-41.

In addition to the consumer protection enforcement noted above, antitrust law provides a well-developed set of legal rules that would prevent ISP’s from engaging in anticompetitive conduct. This would include preventing ISPs from entering into anticompetitive agreements with each other, or with edge providers, that harm competition, as well as prevent anticompetitive unilateral conduct.

In summary, the district court failed to properly balance the equities and, in so doing, sanctioned net harm to the public interest. Both the underlying economic incentives and existing laws ensure ISPs will continue to provide broadband service that meets consumer expectations. By contrast, SB-822, in going further than even the 2015 Order, actually permits a great deal of harm against the public interest by presumptively banning practices, like zero-rating, that increase consumer welfare without harming competition.